Members Daily Post: 21/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT

Ayr (ABANDONED…waterlogged) 

2.10 – Courier (3yo+) I3  14/1

2.40 – Royal Duchess (3yo+) ES I3 G1 6/1

3.45 – Ingleby Hollow (micro age) ES  I3 14/1

5.20 – Perfect Words (3yo+) 16/1

 

Yarmouth

4.10 –

Zenon (all hncps) 14 7/2 2nd 4/1 

Star of The East (3yo+, + micro age) 14/1 UP

4.40- Bonnie Arlene (3yo+, + micro age) 7/1 UP

 

Pontefract

4.00-

Sandras Secret (3yo+) G1 22/1 UP 

Savannah Slew (all hncps) I3 G3 14/1 UP

Hope Solo (3yo+, + micro runs) G3 22/1 UP 

4.30- La Fritillaire (all hncps) I1  11/1  WON 10/1> 17/2  (10pR4) 

5.35- Prazeres (3yo+) 10/1 Up 16/1

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)

No ‘tips’ again, but…

Notes…

Well, there is nothing at the unexposed/doing something different end of things to get too excited about. There are 5 horses so far above that have some support from me…

The two ES quals at Ayr…well they are ‘been there and done it’ horses ,that are both below their last winning handicap marks. Royal Duchess is a hold up type and always needs luck but she gets her soft ground and does like it around here. Plenty in this race are unproven in soft/appear much better on decent ground. Of course she is open to attack from younger legs but 6/1 just allows a play for me. Ingleby Hollow could bounce back in what looks ideal conditions. No reason to be put off that I can see. Will trust the stats and cross my fingers.

Over at Pontefract…

That 4pm looks a puzzle… packed full of unexposed horses/aged 3/4, it looks tricky. The Channon horse won this last year which may explain the early support. The Barron yard is firing now and they have an unexposed/progressive horse who,with luck in running (usually held up) will take all the beating I think. But, Sandras Secret UP..will get some small change. I don’t think she will be good enough but she is the only proper front runner in this and she likes the CD. 6f looks her trip and while I suspect she just doesn’t have the class, the G1 and pace angle caught my eye- and at what could be a nice BFSP say,I will have a small dart. The other two look to have even more questions but it is one of those races.

The other two look worthy of support also. La Fritillaire… WON 10/1> 17/2 well he is 1/4,3p at Ponte over 2m1-2m2f. He ticks all the boxes and races prominently. He also gets first time cheekpieces which may spark him up a tad. The yard form would be a worry but at a double figure price I had a go. I prefer proven stamina in these proper long distance races on the flat, and he has that. Probably a solid EW bet but I may be brave and go on the nose.

Prazeres… UP well he is a ‘ratings pointer’ or two away from possibly going close to being a bet of the day…young, fairly lightly raced… he looks like the only pace angle in this. He stays 7f so a stiff 6f around here may be ideal. It is a race for inexperienced jockeys so that tempers enthusiasm for being as confident as you would like. But I thought there is a strong chance he could get out and stay out here. The jockey may get the fractions wrong, and cut in the going is a question. Form on Good though. But this is an unknown, and why you want a price. We get that. There is a chance he is a C6 animal at best also, but he went close over CD in a C5 in June. He was held up that day, but they seem to have changed tactics with him. They have to try and make all here.

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That’s the lot for today. As always, my aim is to focus on positives for certain horses (price always plays a role) and a horse not mentioned isn’t necessarily a negative, these were just the ones that stood out to my eyes.

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Re-cap on yesterday…while fresh in my mind….

Birthright drifted to 50/1 (Hannon 0/101,4p, 50/1+ shots in non handicaps!) but arguably out-ran his odds against much more expensive oppo (only 800 gns as a foal)..for a moment I thought he may place but ran out of gas. If you like tracking 2 years olds he could be one to watch on next couple of starts. He was a bit green and needed plenty of ‘tapping’ down the neck. A promising debut I thought.

Ancient Longing... is it me or does he look a giant of a horse on the telly..I mean big. He could be one to watch next year/as a four year old when filling into what looked a big frame to my eyes. He wondered around under pressure and looked in need of much further. He just could not quicken and/or isn’t strong enough as yet. Charlton can be patient so he may be one for the tracker longer term.

Dream Start.. well I backed a 5/2 shot at 6.4/1 and that makes any losing bet easier to live with. If every 6/1 shot you backed had a 5/2 SP you know which way your bank balance is heading long term. (yes yes, i know they all don’t shorten like that but you get the laboured point :)) In the end he ran perfectly well, bumping into one that had a bit more in hand I think/is just a better horse. I can see why they have run him over 7/8f before. I wonder if a drop into Class 6 may do the trick, on turf. Or 7f/Class 6. Clearly no world beater but J Ryan will get the odd handicap win out of him at some point.

Wot A Shot... ran perfectly well and had me excited at one point..in the end I think he failed to see out the trip. 16f may be the furthest he wants to go. Not a bad run, considering his overall profile. Maybe they have found the key to him. He travelled well into this.

Topham Bay..hmmm.. she may still be running!! One day I suspect I will be backing her in a muddy C5 chase/long distance hurdle at Hexham!! She may well just be useless, but looked tapped for toe early on here. I suspect she may want a lot further/slower ground.

Do with that as you please, read/ignore/add to trackers etc.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Exclusive Offer… for readers of RTP … if you are ‘in the market’ for a ‘tipping’ service (more what i’d call a race ‘adviser’ service given they provide the logic/write ups) to add to your portfolio, there is an exclusive offer (50% off/3 month guarantee) which you can flick through HERE>>> (inc a video from me also) Clearly they are very different from what I do but I know some of you like a mixed approach, and that offer may interest some of you.

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AYR GOLD CUP MEETING

Short Report: READ HERE>>>>

 

Micro Qualifiers

(to use as guide/starting point….) 

PLEASE NOTE: I have added some ratings pointers, as per key above, to the horses below. Remember these are NOTHING to do with the advised strategies which are only concerned with horses listed in Section 1. The horses below qualify against the ‘big meeting notes’ which is the link in the ‘short report’ above. They have nothing to do with the Trainer Track Profiles stats packs, which form the basis of all qualifiers in Section 1. The ratings pointers below are simply intended to help add more info and help with any further analysis you may do. 

 

(well, that was time well spent :)…..) Onto tomorrow 

 

Fahey (8/1<)

2.40 – Bahamian Bird

3.10 – Right Action H3 I3 

4.20 – Liquid Gold H3 G3 / Prying Pandora I1

5.20 – Grandads World H3 I1 G3

 

Dalgleish  (12/1< , strong guide)

1.40 – Canadian George / Handsome Bob G3 

3.45 – Tectonic G3

5.20 – Salvatore Fury I1

 

Burke (14/1<)

1.40 – Valdolobo

4.50 – Born To Be Alive

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    One to add at Ayr

    2.10 – Courier (3yo+)
    mike

    titus_a_duxass 20/09/17 5:50 PM Reply


    • cheers, no idea how I missed that one.

      Josh 20/09/17 5:56 PM Reply


  • I’m thinking stoute may have a good day tomorrow at Yarmouth

    warren bottomley 20/09/17 7:34 PM Reply


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