Free Daily Post: 21/09/17 (complete)

Nothing from me today, horses wise… a quiet lull really before the Jumps gets going properly.

 

There is news on an exclusive offer, and some guest race previews/tips from said service below…

 

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A taster… below I have repeated today’s members’ email from Speculate 2 Accumulate. Ayr is now abandoned, but there is one of interest at Pontefract, and you get a feel for the write ups etc, and whether you may enjoy reading this kind of thing on a daily basis…

Over to them..

 

Good Morning

Placespotter –

Ayr 2.10 1 Finn Class @ 12/1 / 2 Strong Steps @ 16/1 (1/2 point each way each – Lads/SkyBet odds to 4th)

Work Watcher –

Ayr 3.45 5 Ingleby Hollow – 1 point each way @ 14/1 (all Bookies odds to 4th place Skybet to 5th)

The Advisor –

Pontefract 4.30 9 La Frillitaire – 1 point each way @ 12/1 > WON 10/1 (11.5 BFSP) (R4) 

 

One of those frustrating days yesterday, the sole tip was in the 4.00 at Beverley when we narrowed it down to 3 horses being One Boy; Jacobs Pillow and Astrophysics, Work Watcher just felt the latter was best handicapped and that the other pair were a bit exposed off marks over 70, unfortunately as you will know, the logic was spot on but the execution lacking as the tip was  never in contention but the two dangers romped home 1st at 16/1 and 3rd at 20/1. You will know my overall view though is that such days are sent to try us, but if we can apply that logic often enough, we will consistently make good profit, and I’d be far more concerned if the 3 listed horses filled the last 3 positions. I know a few of you played the 3, as some do, so well done but for  record keeping and proofing, the selection lost.

We move on today with the first of 3 days on soft Going at Ayr, a decent Card at Pontefract; AW at Chelmsford; and also racing at Yarmouth and in Ireland. Our race profiling narrowed the selections down to a shortlist of about 5 races being the 2.10; 2.40 and 3.45 at Ayr and the 2.50 and 4.30 at Pontefract; and we will directly attack 3 of those; all very competitive  but with the kind of bookie value we seek to optimise the potential for profit.

The nature of the races and the stage of the season suggests conservative staking today with the advised stakes from your notional betting bank of 100 points and with your unit to match what is affordable for you.

Before we look at the logic of the Tipsters tips, a few pointers in general. It always pays to look at any runners from the Goldie and Dalgleish yards at Ayr, especially when Goldie seems out of form, which he is at the moment; Andrew Balding is in cracking form at the moment and sends one to Ayr today (Brief Visit in the 4.20); another trainer in good form is Nigel Tinkler and he runs a couple in the 5.35 at Pontefract (Cliff and Cesar The Geezer) and The Mayor of Newmarket John Ryan, a firm favourite of ours, is another in form and runs Hope Is High in the 3.35 at Yarmouth – not tips not proofed but nice types to keep your eyes on and ideal for any Placepots you may be doing today.

On to the Tips and the logic for those tips-:

PLACESPOTTER – A mile at Ayr on soft Going takes some getting and I am therefore looking for proven form in the Going; Course form, a nice handicap mark and if there is any some form over a bit farther in terms of the Distance. FINN CLASS has run some great races for me over the years but is now firmly in the “owes me” category. I will give it one last chance for the season here, it is well handicapped despite top weight, may just have needed the recent run after a bit of a break and really ticks every box required, STRONG STEPS as a Goldie horse also jumps off the page somewhat and looking back at recent form they seem to have lined this one up for this meeting for a while, the type to run well carrying weight and has often been mentioned as being ideally suited to a mile with some cut in the ground. At 12/1 and 16/1 they are speculative but should give s a good run for our stakes and are preferred over the shortlisted dangers who were Magic City; Gerry the Glover and Courier. Lads and Sky go odds to 4th on this race

WORK WATCHER – A very competitive race over an extended 13 furlongs and I was keen on Hurricane Hollow; Johnny Delta and King of Scotland who can all run big races, however, I kept coming back to INGLEBY HOLLOW who is very well handicapped on some not too distant form, runs off a very nice mark and with all bookies offering odds to 4th place the 14/1 looks very generous and a Yard too that definitely knows how to place a horse!

THE ADVISOR – I love these Long Distance races at Ponty and it can be a case of waiting for one to get the ideal conditions as they can meet 5-6 times a year and win in turn, The likes of Chebsey Beau; Tyrell; Almost Gemini and Saved By The Bell have their merits and always do in this type of race but today could be the day for LA FRILLITAIRE looks to tick all the boxes for me here in terms of Course and Handicap mark and trip and with the generally available 12/1; looks the value in the race to me.

Those are the selections today and we will proof them accordingly.

That’s all for today, a tough competitive day with some nice handicap races and just the types we like to attack.

Back with more tomorrow at around 8.30am

Regards

Ian

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Not much today – A couple this evening on the AW – 6.15 Ch Regal Gait and at a price 6.45 Ch Kyllukey.
    Hopefully Ayr can get the racing on for Saturday at least? The going should be ‘Testing’. What horses go well in mask and snorkel?

    In the NFL Thursday night game I like the Rams at evens at -2.

    The Golf starts today and so we see how the selections put up here go.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 21/09/17 11:05 AM Reply


  • I am not tipping anyone for the Tour Championship I will leave that to Colin.
    This is like Josh with the horses, here is the ammunition go play and bet.

    The FedEx Cup itself has been won by the Tour Championship tournament winner here every time since 2010. Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Billy Horschel, Henrik Stenson and Brandt Snedeker were all in the top 6 of the FEC standings across the last 5 renewals.

    Since Rees Jones’ re-design of East Lake in 2008, no current World Number 1 has won the Tour Championship.

    Since the re-design only 1 reigning Major Champion has won the Tour Championship – Jordan Spieth 2015.

    Since 2009, every winner at East Lake has previously captured a PGA Tour title on Bermudagrass greens.

    Since the FedEx Cup Playoffs were launched, no player entering the week at Number 1 in the standings has captured the FEC.

    Out of the top 5 in the FEC D Johnston is no 1 in the world, J Spieth is No1 in the FEC
    that leaves M Leishman, J Rahm and J Thomas, the latter is the only winner of these 3 on Bermudagrass greens.

    Personally, I prefer to wait until after the 1st round but I have gone for J Thomas.
    Last 5 years after round 1. All top 10 have gone on to win. 2 have been 1st round leaders. After round 2 all top 5 bar 1 have gone on to win. Admittedly the prices won’t be as good if betting prior to the tournament starting.

    Good Luck if you are playing.

    Mike

    mickeydee 21/09/17 11:20 AM Reply


    • Mike, you have excelled yourself, that is a cracker of a read! And win lose or draw, that approach surely sees you have a bit of fun over time on the greens??! Good luck.

      Josh 21/09/17 11:30 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike
      Terrific write up.
      For myself i do go against the flow if a player is out of form but as proven course form then he can show improved form at a price at that course,another area a player comes to form at certain times of the year,one i am keeping my eye on is Brendan Steele who i put up at 50/1 last autumn and he won he was also placed at another tournament.
      Mike you have now set your standard and i look forward to next weeks report.
      Cheers
      Colin

      colin leafe 21/09/17 12:39 PM Reply


  • I think October Storm 430P, 8/1, is an early forecast with trip and going putting an emphasis on stamina, against lessers. Lee and Channon a natural partnership.

    Chris Rees 21/09/17 12:55 PM Reply


  • Dark Side Dream looks a decent enough bet in the 19:15 Chelmsford. Whilst the price has halved he is arguably now a better bet than last night given the only other pace angle has been taken out. Is a very consistent performer on the AW handicaps (1/7, 5p at the track; 1/3, 3p over 7f). Jockey is 1/1 on the horse and most of the trainer’s horses have ran well (6 of his last 10 runners have placed 3rd or better). Should get his own way up front which is crucial at the track and rated a solid e/w bet.

    Nick Mazur 21/09/17 1:08 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    You have told us of SP2A’s profit for the last 3 months declared at BFSP,
    yet in today’s email shown above they seem to be advising members to
    take prices on offer by certain bookmakers.

    Do you know of any free websites providing past race results showing
    both SP and BFSP prices ?

    stumac 21/09/17 3:35 PM Reply


    • Hi Stu,

      They are rare in that they advertise/declare to starting price/ betfair starting price- that is what they declare to Racing Index when proofing. And is very fair of them… you can’t really dispute the BFSP price. I don’t know many that just declare/sell their products, based on SP/BFSP.

      That is a worst case scenario… when giving the advice, as per above and on other previews they have done on here, they do advise the best available price with whatever bookies are available. But clearly not everyone can get those prices, or indeed has accounts with certain bookies. hence why they have decided to declare at SP/BFSP. If you have BOG accounts I would always advise taking a price- as that +169 BFSP is a worst case, and after commission- I would think BOG bookie prices would be much better than that.

      Josh

      Josh 21/09/17 3:44 PM Reply


    • Stumac – A very valid point re “advised prices”.

      To clarify, we proof to BSP and Racing index record all performance to industry SP and BSP. We record to SP on our own website and any updates/ performance reviews are done to SP when calculating ROI (or POT – profit on turnover as Racing Index prefer to call it).

      Racing To Profit and those taking the SPECIAL OFFER are getting exactly the same information as our members, so we did give an indication of the best prices available at the time the e-mail is sent out, purely to inform our Members of the best available price and any enhancements etc.

      We have and have always maintained an ethical dislike of “Bookmaker Affinity Deals” and we do not have any and never will!. I passionately believe such practices (gaining financial advantage of tipping losers is totally wrong and misleading valued clients). I know of Tipsters whose biggest income share is “affiliation” and words fail me and are probably unprintable about my views of the worst offenders.

      In short, if we advise a price/offer with any bookie, it is because it offers our client the best available price; no more, no less. It is also not uncommon for us to have SP winners at higher odds than the advised price (happens about 15% of the time).

      As an advocate of excellent customer service and as a former Customer Service Director at a Global Financial brand; I believe in “pragmatism” and by recording/reporting to SP/BSP it also saves us countless hours in (a) trying to justify prices that were never unavailable in the first place and (b) alienating my valued clients who are aggrieved and agitated that they could never “get on” at advised prices.

      It also means that our results under-rate the return usually obtained as we aim to give “accurate” advised prices at the time the mail is sent out and there is nothing better than having “happy customers”. We can’t guarantee winners and profit, that’s what we aim for, but we can and should always aim to be 100% transparent and also
      to offer the best possible customer service.

      You will be used to outstanding service from Josh and if we can match that I will be more than pleased.

      Regards
      Ian

      Ian@SP2A 21/09/17 8:08 PM Reply


  • On an unexciting day for Racing I have taken a look at the weekend football.

    In the London derby WHU v Spurs, West ham have won 3 of the last 4 equivalent matches. I know Spurs are in good form away from home but 5/1 is available on the home team. This derby is hard fought and so may well be close.

    Other homes I like are Burnley 5/4, Mansfield 1/1 and Maidstone U at 5/4.

    martin colwell 21/09/17 4:23 PM Reply


  • If Carlsberg did first days for tipping services…….. (helps he was also also a system qualifier so got paid twice)

    Nick Mazur 21/09/17 4:45 PM Reply


    • Cant’t complain with that can you! She was game. Just. Yep, nice winner for ‘notes’ and ‘strategy 6’ , top rated, 6/1+… that has really come into life,which is good. Good day assured.

      Josh 21/09/17 4:47 PM Reply


      • Unexpected bonus of a freebet in the next feature race if you used 365 since they switched their feature race to the 16:30 when Ayr was called off. (I wouldn’t have been aware if I hadn’t checked so just pointing it to anyone in the same boat)

        Nick Mazur 21/09/17 4:53 PM Reply


    • On at 10/1 with LA Frit and so the sign up has paid for itself for a year. Let us see how the 3 month trial goes.

      martin colwell 21/09/17 5:28 PM Reply


      • Yep, we shall see. That is what the trial is for. 3 months will hopefully be sufficient to make a judgement.

        Josh 21/09/17 6:08 PM Reply


  • Lovely jubbley a service where you can get the price is a must so im going to give it a go,fantastic Josh

    christopher jones 21/09/17 4:57 PM Reply


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