Members Daily Post: 20/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Sandown

2.00- Birthright (2YO) ES 25/1 UP 50/1 

5.15 – Ancient Longing (micro age) 14  I3 G3 4/1 UP

 

Beverley

None.  

 

Yarmouth

3.15 –

Ocean Temptress (all hncps + micro age) H1 I3 G1  4/1

Dream Start (all hncps + micro age)  G3  8/1 2nd 6.4/1>5/2

Sitar (3yo+) 12/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Kelso (using new/updated guide…) 

5.30 –

Wot A Shot (all hncps) ES  G3 16/1 UP

Topham Bay (micro TJC) 22/1 UP

 

*

 

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/71,26p, -2.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/135, +21.6)

None.

..but some notes on those that may carry the burden of a ‘nibble’… (another +6.5 points to the September ‘notes’ coffers yesterday, +37.5 this month. Hmmm…. plenty of fun for £2.5s-£5s there,which is generally what I have been throwing at them so far…)

Dream Start... well he was 8s and there is some money coming. His stablemate is still in the race and may well stay there but she is up 6lb and doesn’t have Jack Osborns 7lb to take off either. So, that is quite a rise..and she won for the notes yesterday. (lucky I think, young Jack went too hard and was challenged by a horse who didn’t want to win. Attitude gets you a long way in this game,esp at the lower levels) …Anyway… Dream Start is lightly raced, and returns to turf for the first time over 6f. SDS takes over in the saddle- you cannot fail to notice that (1/4,2p for trainer) and the horse arrives here in form. Those are the positives and why she is worth a nibble at 8s/7s. The concern.. well soft is a question…she ran ok on soft in a maiden, but that can be deceptive. So, that is a question. And she goes from running in a C6 to a C5. If that class move had been the other way round I may well have ‘tipped’ her, and/or if there had been a distance move. She should have some pace to aim at if OT lines up and there is another in here that likes to get on with it. She can be slow away but should have enough time to wind up. Worth a dabble for me at 8s. Maybe OT wins again but I won’t be backing her.

 

Topham Bay... the head says no, but she makes handicap hurdle debut here (LR 3/13,6p at Kelso last 5 years with such types,+3…which suggests when they win they are fancied), had had a break, and there is so much pace on paper in this. 5 or 6 who usually front run…you can only go so quick over hurdles, but you can go too quick and if a horse gets an easy lead here I think they will be going too fast. They could set this up for a closer. Russel has a mediocre record with handicap hurdles returning after 60+ days, but her Kelso record is much better than that generally. I think she may want about 3 miles+ based on her novice hurdle runs but you just never know. This is a weak race, and at 20s, I’ll throw some change. (Dream Start has a bit more change than this one…)

*

I’ll mention Wot A Shot… he stumbled/possibly lost his action the last day when being pulled up, but was a surprise winner for the stats the race before at Perth. He is an ES and at 16s I will back him. Richards will have a poor year at the track one day, but backing all his cappers here should see you do well over time. Solid. (11/40,12p,+33 BFSP 2014-) There will be ES shots I am more confident on but  if a1 here he could build on that win. This is a weak race. He was rejuvenated by a change of tactics when winning (making all) and I don’t think he will be able to do that here. He might, we shall see. Plenty of pace on. He is a ‘thinker’ and can throw in the towel/lack for effort. Not one to remortgage on 🙂

*

And that’s it for my betting from that lot I think…

Birthright… well maybe he will get £2.50 BFSP, this race looks full of well bred horses from decent yards. Hannon is 6/239,27p with his non handicappers in the 22/1 – 40/1 range – that stat may have tempered by enthusiasm. But he does have the odd one. I should be disciplined and save my £2.50, but you never know. I haven’t had a proper howler in a while.

Ancient Longing…I will leave… (and won’t count in ‘notes’ total if he bolts up) same type of profile/reason as the Omeara horse (yesterday)…   I will highlight Charlton’s record with handicap debutants here… 4/11,6p…and that alone may convince you that 4s is fine. It may be… I just don’t like the lack of distance move. He is running at the same trip as his last maiden where I thought he ran as if wanting further. Who am i to second guess a master trainer. Sandown is a much stiffer track, and maybe that will make all the difference. I can’t think he will be fitter than the last day. 4s didn’t feel overly generous but he could be one I am about to get wrong. .. a NR and he is now 3s as I type… money coming…and that is now short enough for me. Unexposed, and by making handicap debut he is doing one thing different. I’ll leave that with you.

**

That’s the lot.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None.

(Guest ‘Horses to Follow’ post + Video review.. HERE>>> if you missed it)

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi JOSH,

    I dont get Jumps strategy 2? What comes before ’10/1 to 25/1′?

    Thanks

    martin colwell 20/09/17 1:13 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin,

      Well all strategies, Flat + Jumps, only refer to qualifiers against the stats packs in Section 1.

      Strategy #2 for Jumps quote –

      Horse is priced between 10/1 and 25/1 (inclusive) at morning prices. (or at a time that suits you. The results are based on the morning prices I add next to the horse). Their starting price can be outside of this range but they qualified based on their morning price.

      That’s it. You then place your bet, either taking a price or to BFSP.

      *
      I’m not sure how I can make that clearer? Maybe… Horse qualifies in section 1 under Jumps or Summer Jumps.. and then what is above.

      It is simply a price strategy/system, not reliant on any ratings pointers etc.

      So, both of those two above today would qualify. They are in section 1 under ‘Jumps’ and the price next to their names is between 10/1>25/1. As such that is a bet, if you follow it systematically that is. Or you can use the overall results to date as a guide… the decent long term profits have generally been in that range, based on morning prices.

      Josh

      Josh 20/09/17 1:18 PM Reply


      • OK Sorry, senior moment! I did not see if qualifies under strat 1.

        martin colwell 20/09/17 1:42 PM Reply


        • I have senior moments and I’m not even 30 so I wouldn’t worry about it haha. Always ask, that’s the main thing!

          All ‘advised strategies’ refer only to qualifiers in Section 1, which are simply based on the main stats packs.

          Josh

          Josh 20/09/17 1:48 PM Reply


  • josh , sitar 3.15 might be intresting caught my eye few runs back at yarmouth outpaced and flying at the death over 5 furlongs, steps up here.

    paul 20/09/17 3:09 PM Reply


    • I wouldn’t put you off… I thought she looks a non stayer on evidence to date but drops in class…one of those deceptive 5f horses,looks like should get 6f… i thought in soft may just stretch.. had handful or tries. We shall see. May have her wrong. OT out so not as much pace…if they crawl>sprint it would help her.

      Josh 20/09/17 3:12 PM Reply


  • change on headgear front for sitar as well but have missed the price on dream start and will let that one run

    paul 20/09/17 3:16 PM Reply


Post A Reply