Free Daily Post: 20/09/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

4.05 Fairy- Hushing (any, 25/1< best)

4.15 Sand- Jupiter Light (any odds)

 

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Members’ NOTES…

In section 2 of the Members’ Daily Posts i add my own subjective views on some of the horses, generally focusing on those stats qualifiers from section 1 that look worthy of some support. I have struggled on the flat, to a point, at working out which horses to ‘tip’ on the ‘bet of the day’ test, but I have done ok at homing in on those horses that may out-run their odds. In fact in September so far there have been 35 horses given a positive/neutral (on the fence) mention, 8 have won, worth +37.5 points to 1 ‘point’ level stakes. This section is meant to supplement your own thoughts, or in any case just give members’ something to read/flick through on a daily basis. In general I am focusing on the kind of thing discussed in this video HERE>>>

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Today’s ‘notes’, copied from Members’ post, below….

No ‘bet of the day’…

..but some notes on those that may carry the burden of a ‘nibble’… (another +6.5 points to the September ‘notes’ coffers yesterday, +37.5 this month. Hmmm…. plenty of fun for £2.5s-£5s there,which is generally what I have been throwing at them so far…)

Dream Start... (3.15 Y)  well he was 8s and there is some money coming. His stablemate is still in the race and may well stay there but she is up 6lb and doesn’t have Jack Osborns 7lb to take off either. So, that is quite a rise..and she won for the notes yesterday. (lucky I think, young Jack went too hard and was challenged by a horse who didn’t want to win. Attitude gets you a long way in this game,esp at the lower levels) …Anyway… Dream Start is lightly raced, and returns to turf for the first time over 6f. SDS takes over in the saddle- you cannot fail to notice that (1/4,2p for trainer) and the horse arrives here in form. Those are the positives and why she is worth a nibble at 8s/7s. The concern.. well soft is a question…she ran ok on soft in a maiden, but that can be deceptive. So, that is a question. And she goes from running in a C6 to a C5. If that class move had been the other way round I may well have ‘tipped’ her, and/or if there had been a distance move. She should have some pace to aim at if OT lines up and there is another in here that likes to get on with it. She can be slow away but should have enough time to wind up. Worth a dabble for me at 8s. Maybe OT wins again but I won’t be backing her.

 

Topham Bay... (5.30 K) the head says no, but she makes handicap hurdle debut here (LR 3/13,6p at Kelso last 5 years with such types,+3…which suggests when they win they are fancied), had had a break, and there is so much pace on paper in this. 5 or 6 who usually front run…you can only go so quick over hurdles, but you can go too quick and if a horse gets an easy lead here I think they will be going too fast. They could set this up for a closer. Russel has a mediocre record with handicap hurdles returning after 60+ days, but her Kelso record is much better than that generally. I think she may want about 3 miles+ based on her novice hurdle runs but you just never know. This is a weak race, and at 20s, I’ll throw some change. (Dream Start has a bit more change than this one…)

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I’ll mention Wot A Shot… (5.30 K) he stumbled/possibly lost his action the last day when being pulled up, but was a surprise winner for the stats the race before at Perth. He is an ES and at 16s I will back him. Richards will have a poor year at the track one day, but backing all his cappers here should see you do well over time. Solid. (11/40,12p,+33 BFSP 2014-) There will be ES shots I am more confident on but  if a1 here he could build on that win. This is a weak race. He was rejuvenated by a change of tactics when winning (making all) and I don’t think he will be able to do that here. He might, we shall see. Plenty of pace on. He is a ‘thinker’ and can throw in the towel/lack for effort. Not one to remortgage on 🙂

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And that’s it for my betting from that lot I think…

Birthright… (2.00 Sand) well maybe he will get £2.50 BFSP, this race looks full of well bred horses from decent yards. Hannon is 6/239,27p with his non handicappers in the 22/1 – 40/1 range – that stat may have tempered my enthusiasm. But he does have the odd one. I should be disciplined and save my £2.50, but you never know. I haven’t had a proper howler in a while. Market is anything but positive.

Ancient Longing (5.15 Sand)…I will leave… (and won’t count in ‘notes’ ‘total’if he bolts up) same type of profile/reason as the Omeara horse…   I will highlight Charlton’s record with handicap debutants here… 4/11,6p…and that alone may convince you that 4s is fine. It may be… I just don’t like the lack of distance move. He is running at the same trip as his last maiden where I thought he ran as if wanting further. Who am i to second guess a master trainer. Sandown is a much stiffer track, and maybe that will make all the difference. I can’t think he will be fitter than the last day. 4s didn’t feel overly generous but he could be one I am about to get wrong. .. a NR and he is now 3s as I type… money coming…and that is now short enough for me. Unexposed, and by making handicap debut he is doing one thing different. I’ll leave that with you.

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That’s the lot for today.

GL with any bets. Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • Hi Martin
    Spieth you are right about the major tournaments and have put him up as a bet before and no doubt will do so again.
    Portugal Masters George Coetzee came close to a bet,my mind set is to only put up bets that i back and now if George was to win i would be kicking my self for not putting him up and backing him,so in future i will only put up the bets i have.
    Sorry George please do not win!!!!
    Cheers

    colin leafe 19/09/17 7:42 PM Reply


    • Seems as if you’ve been taking your discipline pills regularly Colin, well done! 🙂

      Chris Albin 20/09/17 8:44 AM Reply


  • Beverley 4-00. Astrophysics 12-1 won this race last year and goes again on a 2lb lower mark, creditable 2nd over cd 2 runs ago should go close again.

    martin whittle 20/09/17 6:02 AM Reply


  • Not much today, but I will put up Look Surprised, 1.30 SP, at 7/1 in an open race and Ocean Temptress at 4/1+, 3.15 Yar.

    The Carabao Cup goes again this evening with the big boys out. Based upon weakened team being out I would put up WBA at home at 17/2 and Forest Away at 25/1. On Tuesday we had Leicester deliver at 3.2/1 and two losers for a small profit.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 20/09/17 11:10 AM Reply


    • Never again Martin are you allowed to publicly post ANY footy tips/teams that are taking on Liverpool! 🙂 haha. I jest of course. Licking my wounds. Thank the lord for the horses, it would be a bit miserable now if I just liked football.

      Josh 20/09/17 11:14 AM Reply


      • I don’t know if it is just a blip or down to the fact the game has to be settled on the night
        but there seems to be a low amount of draws in the League cup early rounds
        can you analyse the stats of the last few years to see if there is an angle

        peter 20/09/17 11:38 AM Reply


      • Nothing personal Josh, Liverpool are in the big boys class and the bookies consistently overstate their domination over other teams. Therefore we can get a value angle especially when they have a number of changes in line ups. My brief scan says the number of draws in cup games is lower than league games, but not by a lot. Common thought is that players play with more freedom in cup games which should lead to more open matches and so more goals. My angle on the underdog in these lesser cup competitions is making a steady profit, albeit you need to have more losers than winners (as in horse racing). Just think if Forest go in at 25/1 this evening! Lovely jubbly.

        martin colwell 20/09/17 12:51 PM Reply


        • Good Logic Martin,
          What is your take on Champions league odds
          on teams playing the last game of the group
          if they have already qualified as certain group winners or certain group 2nds
          for example

          Barcelona played 5 15pts
          Juventus Played 5 10pts
          Basle played 5 2pts
          Moscow Played 5 1pts

          Final Games Basle V Barcelona
          Moscow v Juventus

          With Barca and Juventus assued of 1st and 2nd
          And Basle and Moscow still trying to get the third spot for Europa league
          would to two giants be a false price.

          obviously this scenario wont play out to the letter
          but what is the record of big teams in dead rubbers

          peter 20/09/17 1:25 PM Reply


          • I do not know the answer for this one. Perhaps something for Kevin Pullein to tackle in the Racing and Football Outlook or another publication he writes in. I will ask him to have a look but cannot guarantee he will. I would guess that the line ups would not be that weak in such a dead rubber but motivation may be lacking. That could effect both teams. I still think that you would get reasonable odds on the team who needs the win for Europa League (if they fancy it) against a superpower who are almost always overrated.

            I do know that English teams do not play up to their form after an away trip of more than 1,800 miles each way in the week when returning on the Premier League, especially when playing an away match.

            martin colwell 20/09/17 2:07 PM Reply


            • group a Man utd Benfica and Basle long trip to Moscow
              would Benfica and Basle also be vulnerable after a trip to Moscow.(cska)

              Liverpool Sevilla may be vulnerable after a trip to Moscow.(spartak)

              Man city Napoli Feyenood to donesk

              and will Chelsea and their group rivals send full squads to Qarabag?

              peter walker 20/09/17 3:32 PM Reply


              • 22/11/17 Benfica fly to Moscow 2818 mile 5636 mile round trip

                on 26/11/17 Benfica home to Victoria Setubal
                they will be long odds on but will they be shorter than they should be

                peter 20/09/17 3:54 PM Reply


    • I was a bit anti Ocean Temptress today at 4s, having won in members post/notes/treble rated strategy yesterday at 6/1. I may have that wrong mind, but she is effectively 13lb higher than yesterday, and I thought we were a tad lucky..she was headed but the second didn’t look like she wanted to win. Battled back well though. Thought 4s too short. And I hope that Dream Start beats you haha…but if not, hopefully OT can cling on for you. Will try and make all again.

      Josh 20/09/17 11:27 AM Reply


      • Josh,
        What is your opinion of handicap who are racing off a lower mark
        than they have won off with a year but have a string of bad result.

        and then suddenly run 2nd after being backed off the boards
        if a horse is backed after a poor run it can only be insider money because they know
        it is coming to hand.

        2nd for a horse of this type is a good sign as it wont pick up a penalty
        and may well go in because the winner may just be a very well handicapped horse
        if it is more than a couple of lengths back to the third
        then would be very keen.
        BOHERNAGORE has won off 90 and is only off 92 today
        last time he was backed from 11/2 to 4/1 and ran 2nd
        the third was a mile back.
        off the same mark today he is set to go up 6lbs when re assessed
        The only thing that tempers maximum confidence is the fact that
        he has a scratchy record and has blown out in the past

        Kirby is a very shrewd trainer will be playing this one last minute
        if the horse stays strong in the market think it will be very hard to beat.

        If the horse runs to it last run it should win
        but its record shows he isn’t that consistent and could bomb

        in the same race Lucarno Dancer could be underestimated
        beaten a long way last time admittedly but was backed down to 66/1 from 125/1
        and ran 2nd connections must have know it had improved so
        its old form is worth ignoring

        peter 20/09/17 1:44 PM Reply


        • Hi Peter,
          I have no set rules for such types… take on a horse by horse basis, if they hit one of my ‘ways in’. But in general I don’t play at that end of the market so haven’t looked at him (i have just now).. and i certainly woudn’t go anywhere near betting on a 3/1, 11/4< shot in a C5 handicap hurdle...generally inconsistent beasts and you want a price. He may hack up but over time I don't think you would do well with that price horse in this type of race. He just looks the obvious one, and there is no edge. He was short enough the last day having run second the run before that, when he was 18s. So wasn't expected to do much two starts ago, but bumped into one. And then backed LTO on back of that decent run and bumped into one again. That initial return to form looks to have been due to the hood returning...he looks a free sort who they keep front running with- he will not get an easy lead here I don't think, unless he goes too quick. 4/5 front runners in this. Also a completely different track again. I just wouldn't touch at that price. I mean if he repeats his last two runs he clearly goes close, and has won over 18f at Fontwell. if you have the view that his record is inconsistent and he may bomb, then for me I don't know how you can back him at that price. Were he 6s, 8s+ then a different story. But the cat is out the back in terms of his current form/well being. Josh

          Josh 20/09/17 2:11 PM Reply


          • Good advice Josh
            Thanks

            peter 20/09/17 3:21 PM Reply


  • Hi.
    Bygones For Coins 1730 Kelso – is 50/1 shot and I don’t understand why. In my book this horse has got a lot better chance than this. Three races ago he was placed in a very similar race of the same mark. Sky is paying 4 places 1/4 so it’s a good EW in my book.
    Good luck with your selections.

    Marcin Sudol 20/09/17 12:34 PM Reply


    • “Bygone for Coins ” I agree well overpriced @50/1
      , ran several reasonable races and should win one someday, maybe today.

      yarker 20/09/17 1:41 PM Reply


      • GL gents, I can see why you would have a nibble at 50s.. I mean simply on that MR run it looks a bit big. And this is a poor race. I doubt he stays they trip he ran over LTO,and was up there until 2 out. I have a doubt that he will stay 18f around here, but if they ride more patiently he might. He clearly doesn’t like winning very often and has yet to do so over jumps but with 50s shots you can’t be second guessing/over analysing too much! GL. Now, where is that BFSP button for some change…

        Josh 20/09/17 2:23 PM Reply


  • Low draw seems to have a decent edge at Fairy house.

    Invincible Ryker and Focus on Heaven drawn 2 and 1 in the 4.05

    PETER 20/09/17 3:42 PM Reply


  • gutted josh the more i looked at jupiter light the more i fancied it it had so many doing things different jockey change gelding operation head gear change lay off. ran a great race fav beat it

    paul 20/09/17 4:23 PM Reply


    • Well try and forget the losing wager for a minute, and bask in the educational ‘doing something different’ journey …slow and steady, a game of patience. Lightly raced also.. that approach will see you do ok over time, just slow and steady, start low £, aim high! I’d take more positives from that then negatives.

      Josh 20/09/17 4:27 PM Reply


  • I don’t like after timing but given my recent posts of utter filth on here I was loath to put it anything up (not to mention I am a little superstitious so like mixing it up), but my word was that not Spencer at his utter best on Eqimou there.

    Nick Mazur 20/09/17 5:52 PM Reply


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