Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers
4.05 Fairy- Hushing (any, 25/1< best)
4.15 Sand- Jupiter Light (any odds)
In section 2 of the Members’ Daily Posts i add my own subjective views on some of the horses, generally focusing on those stats qualifiers from section 1 that look worthy of some support. I have struggled on the flat, to a point, at working out which horses to ‘tip’ on the ‘bet of the day’ test, but I have done ok at homing in on those horses that may out-run their odds. In fact in September so far there have been 35 horses given a positive/neutral (on the fence) mention, 8 have won, worth +37.5 points to 1 ‘point’ level stakes. This section is meant to supplement your own thoughts, or in any case just give members’ something to read/flick through on a daily basis. In general I am focusing on the kind of thing discussed in this video HERE>>>
Today’s ‘notes’, copied from Members’ post, below….
No ‘bet of the day’…
..but some notes on those that may carry the burden of a ‘nibble’… (another +6.5 points to the September ‘notes’ coffers yesterday, +37.5 this month. Hmmm…. plenty of fun for £2.5s-£5s there,which is generally what I have been throwing at them so far…)
Dream Start... (3.15 Y) well he was 8s and there is some money coming. His stablemate is still in the race and may well stay there but she is up 6lb and doesn’t have Jack Osborns 7lb to take off either. So, that is quite a rise..and she won for the notes yesterday. (lucky I think, young Jack went too hard and was challenged by a horse who didn’t want to win. Attitude gets you a long way in this game,esp at the lower levels) …Anyway… Dream Start is lightly raced, and returns to turf for the first time over 6f. SDS takes over in the saddle- you cannot fail to notice that (1/4,2p for trainer) and the horse arrives here in form. Those are the positives and why she is worth a nibble at 8s/7s. The concern.. well soft is a question…she ran ok on soft in a maiden, but that can be deceptive. So, that is a question. And she goes from running in a C6 to a C5. If that class move had been the other way round I may well have ‘tipped’ her, and/or if there had been a distance move. She should have some pace to aim at if OT lines up and there is another in here that likes to get on with it. She can be slow away but should have enough time to wind up. Worth a dabble for me at 8s. Maybe OT wins again but I won’t be backing her.
Topham Bay... (5.30 K) the head says no, but she makes handicap hurdle debut here (LR 3/13,6p at Kelso last 5 years with such types,+3…which suggests when they win they are fancied), had had a break, and there is so much pace on paper in this. 5 or 6 who usually front run…you can only go so quick over hurdles, but you can go too quick and if a horse gets an easy lead here I think they will be going too fast. They could set this up for a closer. Russel has a mediocre record with handicap hurdles returning after 60+ days, but her Kelso record is much better than that generally. I think she may want about 3 miles+ based on her novice hurdle runs but you just never know. This is a weak race, and at 20s, I’ll throw some change. (Dream Start has a bit more change than this one…)
I’ll mention Wot A Shot… (5.30 K) he stumbled/possibly lost his action the last day when being pulled up, but was a surprise winner for the stats the race before at Perth. He is an ES and at 16s I will back him. Richards will have a poor year at the track one day, but backing all his cappers here should see you do well over time. Solid. (11/40,12p,+33 BFSP 2014-) There will be ES shots I am more confident on but if a1 here he could build on that win. This is a weak race. He was rejuvenated by a change of tactics when winning (making all) and I don’t think he will be able to do that here. He might, we shall see. Plenty of pace on. He is a ‘thinker’ and can throw in the towel/lack for effort. Not one to remortgage on 🙂
And that’s it for my betting from that lot I think…
Birthright… (2.00 Sand) well maybe he will get £2.50 BFSP, this race looks full of well bred horses from decent yards. Hannon is 6/239,27p with his non handicappers in the 22/1 – 40/1 range – that stat may have tempered my enthusiasm. But he does have the odd one. I should be disciplined and save my £2.50, but you never know. I haven’t had a proper howler in a while. Market is anything but positive.
Ancient Longing (5.15 Sand)…I will leave… (and won’t count in ‘notes’ ‘total’if he bolts up) same type of profile/reason as the Omeara horse… I will highlight Charlton’s record with handicap debutants here… 4/11,6p…and that alone may convince you that 4s is fine. It may be… I just don’t like the lack of distance move. He is running at the same trip as his last maiden where I thought he ran as if wanting further. Who am i to second guess a master trainer. Sandown is a much stiffer track, and maybe that will make all the difference. I can’t think he will be fitter than the last day. 4s didn’t feel overly generous but he could be one I am about to get wrong. .. a NR and he is now 3s as I type… money coming…and that is now short enough for me. Unexposed, and by making handicap debut he is doing one thing different. I’ll leave that with you.
That’s the lot for today.
GL with any bets. Josh