Members Daily Post: 15/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Doncaster

3.00 – Penglai Pavilion (all hncps) 14,30  H3 11/2

4.35 – Normandy Barriere (3yo+) 14 13/2

 

Sandown

3.10 – See The Master (micro class) 14  14/1

4.45 – Casement (micro age) 14 H3 9/4

 

Chester

2.15 – Kendergarten (2YO) 16/1

3.25 – Native Prospect (BONUS) ES H3 I3 G3  7/2

3.55 –

Call Out Loud (all hncps) G3 25/1

Penwortham (micro going) H1 I1 6/1

Right Touch (micro going) I3 7/2

Rajar (micro going) 9/1

Louis Vaz Des Torres (micro going) G1 14/1

Gabrial The Tiger (micro going) G3 11/1

5.05 – Suegioo (micro going) H3 I3 G1 9/1

5.40 –

Maggie Pink (all hncps) 25/1

Dark Devil (micro going) H1 I1 10/1

 

Salisbury

4.25 – Construct (2YO) 12/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/70,25p, -1.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/134, +22.6)

None.

Nothing jumping out at me and in order to avoid a migraine i’m just going to let the 3.55 Chester go ahead without getting involved!! Penwortham is a double top rated as a way in, but unproven on soft. Solid course form and won the race last year. I suppose the other alternative would be to have some shrapnel on the bigger priced ones just in case but it looks too tough to my eyes, and it will be just my luck that a) i pick the wrong ones (can’t back them all) b) none of them win!

Anyway… there are two more lightly raced ones… I stared at See The Master for a time, at Sandown. 14/1. Cox is back in blistering form…this 3 year old has been running ok but his two wins were at a lower class and his last two runs suggest he may not be up to this level. I can’t work out why he would better than second over CD two starts ago..it was a small field and he got an easy lead, and still go beat, by something with more in hand (by the Houghton horse that re-apposes)… 9f may have stretched him at Goodwood where he was leading to the 8 pole. From box 3,and with no other regular front runners, there is the chance he gets an easy enough lead again here. He does have a low weight, not many miles on the clock, and the trainer is in red hot form. I couldn’t put my ‘tipping point’ on him, but may have some loose change just in case I have made a clanger. The race is full of lightly raced types and the market suggests that Varian beast may blow them all out the water.

Dark Devil is lightly enough raced also, well 2/13 on turf.. I did note he drops in class here having run well at the track LTO. A repeat of that puts him in the mix…but he has a tricky draw and the jockey is inexperienced, as most are, and that would be a concern. Because of those two factors I wouldn’t want to go mad but at 10/1 maybe another for the ‘interest bet’ ledger.

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VIDEO 1… This 13 minute ‘epilogue’ looks back at what was a shocker of a day for me yesterday… on the back of a great day on Wednesay… it covers a few things including a brief apology, a quick look at the Andrew Balding winner, and in general me beating myself over the head repeatedly (metaphorically speaking). It covers some general points. I mean, you may find it entertaining if nothing else.. possibly… but that was a poor day for me…. (in terms of racing/punting etc…in our little bubble) If you missed both/either winner…we can be annoyed together… and you may sense the ‘restless perfectionism’ that drives me…

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

VIDEO 2

Chester ‘through the card/starting points’ (as requested by Tim)

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Doncaster ‘Qualifiers’ 

1.55 –

Tomyris 14 G3

Eternally (5/1< a pos) I3

3.35 – Sheikhzayedroad (7/1< a pos) H3 G3 

4.05 –

Ace Ventura (all)   14

Military Law  14,30

Tiffin Top  14,30

 

Listowel ‘Qualfiiers’ 

2.05 –

Optional Necessity   14,30

Lorente (no pointers,just ‘all’ runners,starting point)

3.50 – Ringside Support (Bolger ‘micro’)

5.50 – Koroleva  14,30

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, thanks for the videos. Unrelated to your selections I had a mega day yesterday and a nightmare today! Long term profit is the game. I am working evenings and early mornings this week as I am away with the family and the dogs in Dorset. Back to normal next week.

    martin colwell 14/09/17 8:14 PM Reply


    • Yep, that’s the way it goes…many more shocking days than good days, but at the odds we all play at generally, those good days more than make up for it. Yesterday was particularly bad mind, but there we go! Given the stats that Varian 20/1 winner really was one of the more easy big meeting winners to find! We move on.

      Josh 15/09/17 9:13 AM Reply


  • Cheers Josh, looks a real tricky card at Chester!

    Tim Scott 15/09/17 7:07 AM Reply


    • No problem. Yes, very!! Small fields, soft ground, not too much jumps out at you…a few races for horses that as yet haven’t done much (but have had a few goes), and plenty of trainers who do well at the track… not a card to go mad on, and again, maybe one to spend more time propping up the bar! 🙂 With any luck your pins land on two or three winners.

      Josh 15/09/17 7:15 AM Reply


  • Some Portland Handicap stats etc for Saturday, in free post… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/09/14/free-daily-post-150917-upd1/

    (if you are logged in, and click ‘HOME’ you should see all posts come up in front of you,inc Members etc)

    Josh

    Josh 15/09/17 8:11 AM Reply


  • morning josh,because of the amount of racing we have in this country as a punter its easy to get confused where to start looking at which horses we should back .I pretty much stick to horses you put up in your stat pack systems as its a great foundation list. Then to shorten my list of bets from the list i tend to pigeon hole the trainers into a class scenario of what type of horse they train. I would tend to stick with a trainer with a decent size string and avoid trainers with small strings as they are oftencast offs and low grade animals.From yesterday andrew balding at epsom i would say is class2-3 trainer. and he run fairly unxposed in class5 grade, varian yesterday in my head group3 listed class trainer running laugh a minute in claas 2. I would apply this scenario to all tpyes of racing as with your kerry national winner trained by gordon elliot a grade 1 trainer in my opinion. Todays racing the best bets look shorter in price john gosden and roger varian 1.55 don from qualifiers list apply gosden being group 1 trainer varian group3 listed class in my opinion. its just away of sorting the trainer to the class of race in your stats i hope someone finds it intresting

    paul 15/09/17 8:18 AM Reply


    • Morning Paul, plenty of logic there for sure, and seems to be working well for you! Yep, those big yards/strings often have the best horses, and more of ability to judge a horse at home,given the number of horses they can work them against to gauge ability etc. Certainly putting more weight in your own head on such factors makes plenty of sense to me. There is a reason the top trainers are the top trainers/have biggest strings/attract the big owners/some of best bloodstock.

      Elliot and/or Gigginstown… are now responsible for a massive chunk of my big race jumps winners.. inc at the Festival. Actually I think most/all of my big priced Festival winners in recent years carried their colours (4x 20/1+ shots I think,inc very wood 50s) no shock, as I like a slogger/stamina etc…and their MO seems to be to try and buy horses laden with stamina. And when you put them with some of the best trainers around, it’s a potent mix. I’d fancy them to out-slog any Mullins French bred horse any day of the week, over a trip.

      Josh 15/09/17 8:35 AM Reply


  • would love to back see the master today but like you am struggling to find a winning angle for him. Maybe cox trying low weight against better class animals i think small bet to save face of it scooting in

    paul 15/09/17 8:46 AM Reply


    • He’s worth a small nibble at that price..no impossible he scoots away on the front end with that weight,and Cox’s recent form tipped me into the ‘interest bet’ territory… evidence suggests he may not be good enough/others with more in hand, but you never know with this type of horse.

      Josh 15/09/17 8:50 AM Reply


  • Josh
    Andre Atzeni is riding May Girl at 2.25pm, currently 25/1, she won last two races (including on soft) but it is a step up in class for a trainer (Cowell) who does not do that well at Doncaster but had a winner on Wednesday. Worth a nibble?

    Linda 15/09/17 9:05 AM Reply


    • Hi Linda… hmm… my thoughts on Group races probably not worth too much but you would be a bit shocked if one of top two didn’t win this, who have much the best form, and are both a fair way ahead on geegeez speed ratings… that horse needs to step up a long long way. But it is AA at Donny, and second guessing his biggies is questionable!!! If you play, i would do it EW… they are lightly raced horses open to bags of improvement and you just never know. I would be shocked if he won, but then I am shocked on a regular enough basis! 🙂

      Josh 15/09/17 9:12 AM Reply


  • I was out all night last night (and feeling it) so in no state to do any sort of thinking about the nags but Tomyris in the 13;50 does fit my Atzeni micro. Price has gone a bit but at least the kind people at Skybet are offering money back for 2nd or 3rd.

    Nick Mazur 15/09/17 9:55 AM Reply


  • Hi, 1st post on this superb site. I’ve done a cheeky £1 ew Trixie on A.A.s 3 rides
    13:50 TOMYRIS @ 7.0
    14:25 MAY GIRL @26.0
    16:05 ACE VENTURA @ 8.0

    Solent 15/09/17 11:30 AM Reply


    • HI! New posts always welcome,especially when starting with such praise haha. Much appreciated. One more to go in your bet,fingers crossed for a positive results and some sort of return! Josh

      Josh 15/09/17 3:06 PM Reply


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