Members Daily Post: 14/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Chepstow 

3.25 – Native Soldier (all hncps) ES H3 I3 G1 6/1 UP 

3.55 – Major Valentine (3yo+) I3 G1 8/1 UP

4.30 – Breeze Up (all hncps) 40/1 UP

 

Doncaster

1.20 – Hoofalong (micro age) I3 6/1 UP

4.05 –

Oasis Fantasy (all hncps) ES I3 G3 9/1

Another Eclipse (all hncps) ES H3 I3 4/1 UP

4.35 – Pacharana (3yo+) 14,30 H1 I3 9/1 2nd 12/1 

 

Epsom

2.00- El Torito (micro dist) 40/1 UP

4.15 –

Lady Perignon (4yo+) 14/1  WON 14/1 

Shifting Star (micro TJC) I3 G3 20/1  UP

4.45 –

Flowing Clarets (micro TJC) 10/1 UP

Grandad’s World (micro age) H3 I1 6/1 2nd 6/1

 

JUMPS

Hexham

6.10 –

Magnum (hncp hurdle) 14/1 UP

Mrs Grass (hncp hurdle) ES I3 14/1 UP

Oishin (micro class) 14,30, H3 I1 G3 4/1 UP

6.40 – My Idea (micro dist) 14,30 H3 I1 3/1 UP

7.10 –

Beyondtheflame (hncp hurdle) ES  40/1 UP

Bescot Springs (micro class) H3 I3 8/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/69,25p, -0.1) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/133, +23.6)

 

3.25 Chepstow – Native Soldier – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) UP (poss last also!)

Maybe I should just stick to 3m+ chases/jumps on the tipping front! And just stick to the stats for the flat 🙂 Maybe Flint’s are just out of form, as he travelled well there but found nothing when asked and went backwards. Another one I will forget about pretty quick. No excuses from what I can see,a flat run. All on Bescot to lift the mood…

He has to be the bet of the day I think… he is lightly raced, (1//4 on turf) second run for the trainer after a decent effort LTO, he drops down in trip by 2f (having stayed ok LTO over 10f,but making his strong challenge at the 8f pole before plugging on…8f here could be ideal,and has plenty of time to wind up) and he drops from C4 back to C5, and the headgear returns…which he won in for Haggas. So, he really does tick all the boxes. He is also an ES and treble rated. If I was going to back just one horse today, it would have to be him I think. One niggle is the recent trainer form and why I wouldn’t want to go below 11/2, 5/1 I don’t think… 0/20,3p last 30 days, but 0/8,2p last 14… with these small enough yards it is tricky..as many can become handicapped up to the hilt, rather than the yard going cold for other reasons. Not a reason to be put off, but maybe more cautious. If he had some green 14/30s by his name you would be very bullish. But the horse was at least in form when last seen, and that run seemed to show that soft ground is no problem. Hopefully they don’t race him too far back, and they use his stamina… looks a strong stayer over 8f.

 

Of the rest…

Well not too much is leaping out at me to be backed. Lots of exposed horses who don’t jump out at me and I can live with myself if they win. A few other unexposed ones but they haven’t done much at all and I struggled to make a case for them really. I mean Breeze Up does make handicap debut, moves up in trip, and headgear on…but it is hard to take anything from those maidens, even if handicaps were always the plan. The headgear suggests he hasn’t been putting it all in.

Grandad’s World... maybe worth some minor support in a tricky race…just because his mark is tumbling and he moves back up to 6f. He has a tricky draw but he should appreciate this return to 6f…he won off 90 in 2015, and finds himself off 69 here with the claim. IF he could repeat his first run of the season at Ripon, he would go very very close here. He has never raced in a Class 5 over 6f… with wins at higher classes, and over 6f…

The only horse leaping off the page at me over sticks is Bescot Springs… this one won for the #1 strategy last time he won I think..and took a nice drift in the market. I will be backing him..if you could see the instant expert tab you would see why. He is the only heavy ground winner in this, and has placed 6/12 on it. He relishes conditions and is a C5 animal these days. He is back on his last winning handicap mark. He will keep going when most of these have given up. It will be a slog at Hexham today. He has won after a break so that should be fine..that is a slight niggle in this ground..as is the inexperienced jockey… that is more of a concern. And why I am not as bullish as I might be. He is getting on a bit now also. So not one to go mad on…but I wouldn’t be shocked if he won this, and as such at those odds i’ll have a dabble. Age may have finally caught up with him though…he feels like the obvious one in this actually, and that rarely ends well… (i wouldn’t put anyone off a saver on the Elliot Fav either… maybe a 1-2…) 

So, those are where my own focus will be on from Section 1, do with that as you please 🙂

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Re-Cap

Hmm. Well my flat ‘tipping’ still continues to bob up and down, much to improve on.. plenty of the lightly raced/unexposed/doing something different horses are winning/have won etc, and many have been mentioned in ‘notes’, but my ability to ‘tip’ them is questionable at the moment! That will bug me until I get it right. Which I will do, one day. it’s 2/3 decent priced winners away from not looking too bad at all.

I was nowhere near to backing that Ryan 10/1 winner at Carlisle. A 15 race maiden his best recent runs were on GF. This was soft/heavy..albeit hadn’t had many goes on it, and certainly none at this distance. So not a total shock, but he didn’t boost my betting bank! Damn. Maybe your pin landed on him.

Hopefully you read the free post… ‘tips’ in muddy 3m+ handicap chases are my bread and butter really, on the tipping front, so it was nice to nail another good price winner of a decent chase, +14 points to the pot. I need to update those results, but they are on around +85 for the year, if not nearing +100 points. Hopefully a good winter ahead. +65 points of that was in Festival week, which is exclusive for members/pay-walled.

Anyway, back in the morning with any Bet of the Day.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster/Listowel ‘qualifiers’..

All to follow in the morning I think. I need to cook some food before I head to the pub to watch the match!

If you are desperate, the notes are below 🙂

Doncaster St Leger Meeting Notes: READ HERE>>>

Listowel NotesREAD HERE>>>

 

‘Qualifiers’ (starting points…) 

IMPORTANT!!!>>>> I have used ratings pointers/form pointers from THE KEY… these are simply to help in any of your own analysis, to use as you please. THEY ARE NOT anything to do with section one above and DO NOT qualify against any of the advised strategies…just added info of interest, to use/ignore as you please… (but the theory behind them all is the same..)

 

Doncaster

1.20 – Khelman / Paddy Power (both 14/1<)

1.50 –

The Mums (5/1< a big pos, hits all pointers,so flex on price I think)

Clubbable (‘micro’) H3 I1

3.00- Aljezeera (no pointers,but Cumani stats all runners solid) 14,30

3.35 – Great Prospector (‘micro’) H1 I1 G3  (any other of his 14/1< SP)

4.05 –

Oasis Fantasy (if 7/1< SP) I3

Another Eclipse (as above) H3 I3

4.55 – Pacharana (hits both pointers) 14,30  H1 I3 

 

Listowel 

2.05 –

Kupa River

Free Ranger (missed earlier… hits the Bolger ‘micro’/all pointers…)

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Atzeni watch: 1/1 today although was too short for me. He has Detailed in the 15:00 which hits just about everything from both my system (barring the odds hits every other positive) and Josh’s NOT ridden LTO systems. Obvious this is JOB’s first Leger Festival so we have no past stats on him but this looks to be his first ever time he has utilised Atzeni. He also has Euginio in the 16:05 but that one finish 5th, was ridden by the jockey LTO but at least it is likely to go off less than 9/2.

    Nick Mazur 13/09/17 6:00 PM Reply


    • Laugh a Minute looks an interesting Atzeni ride tomorrow in the 15.35. It came 2nd to Group 2 winning Wells Farr Go in York 2 starts ago by 2 1/2 lengths in Good to Soft, being headed in the last furlong. This trip is half a furlong shorter so that may suit. Last run on Good was OK but a repeat wouldn’t be good enough to win this, so the hope that was due to the firmer ground and the predicted soft conditions tomorrow will enable it to perform similar to it’s first run at York.

      JamesP 13/09/17 11:05 PM Reply


      • Well done James. I think I found I new system for him. Just back the ones I don’t . Where’s that Opus Dei whip.

        Nick Mazur 14/09/17 3:51 PM Reply


        • Welcome to the club Nick! 🙂 Let’s move on swiftly. Mugs, the pair of us!

          Josh 14/09/17 3:52 PM Reply


          • Yeah. Went really well with the one which fit everything and came fourth!

            Nick Mazur 14/09/17 4:12 PM Reply


      • Good stuff James, I hope you had a go at 20s… I’m currently just dusting off the my Opus Dei kit and staring into the abyss out of my window! 🙂 Just back all of Varians, just back all of Atzenis (certainly those at a price…) The stats were there.. not sure why i didn’t mention him in list above given all of Varian’s stats, was 0/8,3p 2YO at meeting, but small numbers and enough places.
        Ah damn. Hope you got stuck in.

        Josh 14/09/17 3:51 PM Reply


      • Well done James, great 12/1 winner, cheers. Azteni rode a brilliant race .

        Tom Morton 14/09/17 3:53 PM Reply


      • Nice shout James!

        Eamon Roberts 14/09/17 3:57 PM Reply


      • Cheers all, got 16s yesterday seems a few got a nice drift out to 20s but I won’t be too greedy! Glad a few were on 🙂

        JamesP 14/09/17 6:01 PM Reply


  • TAJAANUS 2.25 DONCASTER.
    put this in my tracker from the Hugh fowler 2yo posts
    may be in with a shout.
    5/1 as I post this.

    warren bottomley 13/09/17 6:56 PM Reply


  • pick 7.
    Race 1: 13:20 Doncaster Hoofalong
    T: M W Easterby J: Miss Joanna Mason 6/1
    Race 2: 13:50 Doncaster Clubbable
    T: R A Fahey J: P Hanagan 9/4
    Race 3: 14:25 Doncaster Tajaanus
    T: R Hannon J: Jim Crowley 5/1
    Race 4: 15:00 Doncaster Detailed
    T: Joseph P O’Brien J: Andrea Atzeni 10/1
    Race 5: 15:35 Doncaster Tangled
    T: R Hannon J: S M Levey 4/1
    Race 6: 16:05 Doncaster Al Neksh
    T: W J Haggas J: L Dettori 3/1
    Race 7: 16:35 Doncaster Pacharana
    T: L M Cumani J: A Kirby 8/1.
    this lot gleamed from system bets , notes etc lets see how they do compared to my selections on free page, couple of crossovers.

    martin whittle 14/09/17 7:19 AM Reply


  • Josh, I think Bolger’s Free Ranger is a qualifier in the 2.05pm as well.

    Linda 14/09/17 8:30 AM Reply


    • I’m glad someone’s awake this morning! Thanks Linda, so he is..and hits all of the stats,and from that perspective at least looks very interesting…
      Josh

      Josh 14/09/17 8:38 AM Reply


  • Josh

    Just reporting a very reasonable day at Doncaster yesterday, backed 3 winners with a 4th winner in the Kerry National at Listowel, thanks for your pointers they really helped me back some winners. My nap of the day Lahore stormed home winning very easy.

    Tom Morton 14/09/17 3:31 PM Reply


    • Ah I was hoping you backed a handful… Burrows horse did it easily, Mount Logan was fun…and Varian’s was the icing…and possibly the only one I backed given 7/2 and ratings pointers/form…won’t see an easier winner in a race like that for a while! Pleased that was your nap. I think..also… in the Legends race… I focused on the 1-2-3…not tricast here mind! Sounds like a great day at the races to me. Well done.

      Josh 14/09/17 3:35 PM Reply


  • andrea atzeni comes good at doncaster the great thing about your site josh is there is always plenty of good angles floating about.Yesterday it was your three mile chase at listowel today atzeni. i have used a lot of different tipsters and betting sites but am so pleased i found yours.

    paul 14/09/17 3:55 PM Reply


    • Cheers Paul, glad you like it..and seem to be backing a few nice winners which is what it’s about, bank will grow in time with any luck..but you have to enjoy those moments when you get it right…and with any luck you get much more satisfaction from using the info, such as Atzeni, to land on a nice priced winner. I wish I had backed him, didn’t look at race at all, a case of a cluttered mind there..but as long as someone/others have had a go that is job done.

      (oh and Nick should take the credit for Atzeni angle… i will for Roger..whose stats are so good you should just back the lot, it would seem!!) (well,those that are a decent price)

      Josh 14/09/17 4:02 PM Reply


  • Big thanks to both Josh and Nick Mazur for the St Leger systems shared a few days ago. I got 17.5 on Laugh a Minute last night and really enjoyed watching it romp home.

    Jamie 14/09/17 3:56 PM Reply


    • you’re a better punter than the pair of us in this instance… classic example this time of not really looking at the race at all for me..not a penny on…heart sank as i saw the yellow flash up the far side, missed James’ comment also. Glad you had a piece!

      Josh 14/09/17 4:00 PM Reply


      • Sorry guys, I hadn’t see your comments above when I posted, I didn’t mean to come across like I was in full on smug mode 🙁

        Jamie 14/09/17 4:11 PM Reply


        • Haha- you be as smug as you want, I would be… not your fault I had a brain fade/didn’t look at race and all the other errors!

          Josh 14/09/17 4:13 PM Reply


  • sorry you missed laugh a minute josh not good when they scoot in at a big price with nothing on maybe hexham will recue your day

    paul 14/09/17 4:04 PM Reply


    • Oh i am well used to it Paul! It’s the nature of the approach…if I tied crucified myself too much with missed winners/nice prices, i’d need psychological help I think! I

      I am most annoyed I didn’t list him in the qualifiers above…I used the same logic for Cumani’s but just didn’t for Varian’s – his stats for all runners are so good as per notes..if I had listed it there a) I would have looked at him in more depth..and who knows, but I know what I am like with 20s shots so £5 would have headed his way b) maybe more will have backed it…but there we go.

      Bescot will romp home, no worries there!! 🙂 Rarely do you have two superb days back to back, and yesterday was pretty good over the sticks. used up all my analytical luck!

      Josh 14/09/17 4:08 PM Reply


  • Think Andrea has just booted another one home

    PAUL 14/09/17 4:13 PM Reply


  • having backed your listowel winner and atzeni at 16/1 josh i feel a little cockie josh, but all in all you cant back them all

    paul 14/09/17 4:14 PM Reply


    • Can’t blame you for that! My job is to ensure you feel just like you do now often enough to make the game a bloody enjoyable one!

      Josh 14/09/17 4:17 PM Reply


  • got 27.0 on lady perignon and 17.5 on laugh a minute (sorry josh had to mention it) so well in profit with still a few to run 🙂

    martin whittle 14/09/17 4:31 PM Reply


    • I have not had a good day. Pass me the noose! 🙂

      Josh 14/09/17 4:35 PM Reply


  • yep i missed the balding horse kicking myself but as i said earlier you cannot back them all.

    paul 14/09/17 5:11 PM Reply


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