Free Daily Post: 14/09/17 (complete)

TIPS

None…I’m slowly getting into focus my winter jumps eyes and yesterday was a good start…the 5.40 at Hexham is of some interest… I always put the mockers on a horse at shorter odds/under 9/2 really..my record could be better…if say Presented were 7/2… i’d be having a good go at him. He may make 9/4 look big… this could be a slog here today, and this one paced, heavy ground lover, could just gallop this lot into submission. It’s his is tumbling again and he will relish conditions, when the rest have it to prove really. He is 10 and I am not sure Hughes is the right jockey for him…but I hope he is aggressive and tries to burn these off from the front. That’s what he should do as he will keep going the one pace which around here, in heavy, is all he may need to do. Do with those thoughts as you please!

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Some notes from the Members’ Club below, from my ‘Big Meeting’ trainer notes for Donny St Leger Meeting and Listowel. The red symbols refer to ratings sets, from HorseRaceBase/Geegeez Gold/Inform Speed ratings, either top rated or top 3. The horses listed are based on trainer stats, whereas these ratings relate to the horse. A potent mix 🙂 (or they can be, over time…) I’d use as starting points to help with any of your own analysis…

 

Doncaster

1.20 – Khelman / Paddy Power (both 14/1<)

1.50 –

The Mums (5/1< a big pos, hits all pointers,so flex on price I think)

Clubbable (‘micro’) H3 I1

3.00- Aljezeera (no pointers,but Cumani stats all runners solid) 14,30

3.35 – Great Prospector (‘micro’) H1 I1 G3  (any other of his 14/1< SP)

4.05 –

Oasis Fantasy (if 7/1< SP) I3

Another Eclipse (as above) H3 I3

4.35 – Pacharana (hits both pointers) 14,30  H1 I3 

 

Listowel 

2.05 –

Kupa River

Free Ranger (hits the Bolger ‘micro’/all pointers…)

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That’s the lot for today,

GL with any bets,

Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Daniel Berger backed so we have the best price at 66/1 now it is up to him

    colin leafe 13/09/17 7:14 PM Reply


    • i noticed that he has been shortened into 50-1 must have been my £1 ew that got them running scared 🙂

      martin whittle 14/09/17 6:29 AM Reply


      • As I said before I dont play the Golf until the end of the third round. However I dont mind Fab Zanotti at 33/1 and perhaps Tom Lewis at 50/1+. Both in form and each way. In the USA I would have to go with Justin Thomas at 10/1+.

        martin colwell 14/09/17 9:56 AM Reply


        • Gonna take a punt on Jason Day in the USA, currently level par after 7 and a decent 20-1 available. GL

          Mark 14/09/17 8:14 PM Reply


  • ITV 7.
    1 1:50 Doncaster – Win Clubbable @ Guaranteed Price (9/4) –
    2 2:00 Epsom Downs – Win El Torito @ Guaranteed Price (33/1) –
    3 2:25 Doncaster – Win Nyaleti @ Guaranteed Price (3/1) –
    4 2:35 Epsom Downs – Win Alnasl @ Guaranteed Price (3/1) –
    5 3:00 Doncaster – Win Harlequeen @ Guaranteed Price (12/1) –
    6 3:10 Epsom Downs – Win Altaayil @ Guaranteed Price (8/1) –
    7 3:35 Doncaster – Win Neola @ Guaranteed Price (7/1) –

    Stuck this on last night but after closer inspection i’m liking Tajaanus 5-1 more and more in the 2-35.
    a quick mention for Harlequeen 3-00 Mick Channon is rather bullish about her chances today after looking to be coming back to last years form lto finishing 2l behind My Reward at chester 12 days ago, she also holds an entry in the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes @ Ascot next month not sure if that means anything but ive had a few quid ew today @14-1.

    martin whittle 14/09/17 6:51 AM Reply


  • Donny hardest course in the country to make all.
    Note how many horses who lead after a Furlong get beat.

    The further they go clear early on the less likely they are to win but
    the in running market goes the other way
    Lay anything after a furlong if it has a clear lead.

    in the big field handicaps over 1m2f plus horses that go lengths clear early on
    often struggle to be in the first 6

    peter 14/09/17 1:17 PM Reply


    • Hmmm… i don’t lay horses, but I don’t think you can take a blanket approach unless you have some stats to back that up.. the pace maps I am looking at in geegeez, show a wide difference over certain distances, ground etc…and it seems to be a fair track… plenty lead/make all, plenty mid div, plenty held up… while clearly hard to make all at certain tracks there are so many factors..inc ground, field size, horse, the jockey, wind direction, pace they go at etc…
      And yesterday, and a lot of races at this meeting..are non handicaps/very unexposed horses… group/listed races…where ultimately class makes all the difference, and not so much getting an easy lead.

      Well, that’s my view anyway…suspect you may get hurt now and then if laying a leader after 1f at a price who then stays there all the way. But like I said, laying isn’t my think so I may well be talking nonsense.

      Josh 14/09/17 1:37 PM Reply


      • Josh,
        Fair comment but I don’t think I clarified the logic.

        It is the way the in running market react when a horse goes clear that is the key
        for example if a horse is a even money favourite for a 7f maiden at the course.
        if after a furlong or two it is clear it will trade much shorter than evens in the in running market.

        Because Doncaster is an end to end galloping track the there is no rest bite
        so regardless or the horses ability to fast means that it will slow dramatically in the last furlong
        so will all the others and it can still win

        The way the market react is the key if an even money is upsides in the lead if is likely to be still tradable at evens or near that if it is just tucked in behind a pacemaker it is liable to be a small odds on
        if well off the pace it will be bigger than even but the fun starts when it is clear.
        if it is 2 clear then it will be odds on 4 clear and it will be even shorter.
        but the further clear the horse is the more likely the horse has gone to fast and will come back.
        with no sectional times it is hard to sure if the horse has gone to fast or not.
        but that is where your stop watch comes into play.

        find a spot at around the marker that tells you they have run two furlongs
        and time the horses to that spot(The race distance/going wind etc will move the goal posts) so if in the older horses handicap the lead horse
        hits that mark in 24.8 seconds in a 7f race and then in the two year old maiden the evens favourite is 5lengths clear at that spot in 24.5 over the same c/d then there is a big chance that it will
        have gone to fast and the horse should be trading at 2/1 but because the crowd see the good thing
        well clear it will be trading at 2/5 that is when you lay

        peter 14/09/17 3:26 PM Reply


        • Well it clearly works for you. Although whatever his price (assume shorter after 1f) I hope you didn’t lay that 25/1 winner of the last race at Donny that just made all 🙂

          You think about this game in far more complex ways than I do, in terms of an approach as described as above. And i don’t think that is an area I would ever become a master of, maybe as I don’t find laying any fun at all and reduces the game again to financial outcomes etc…and I need the emotional thrill of backing the odd winner/solving the puzzle in that way.

          Josh

          Josh 14/09/17 3:33 PM Reply


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