Members Daily Post: 13/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Carlisle 

2.40 –

Foresight (3yo+) 33/1 UP

Crazy Tornado (micro dist) ES I3 11/1 UP

Argaki (micro dist) ES  G1  14/1

3.40 –

Mohab (3yo+, + micro runs) G3 14/1 3rd

Saint Equiano (micro TJC, + distance) ES (x2,counted once) H3 G3  9/2 UP

Father Bertie (micro age) I3 16/1 UP

4.40 – Tagur (3yo+, + micro runs) 10/1 WON 10/1>8/1 

 

Doncaster

None

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

3.00- Wolftrap (micro class) 14,30 G3 15/2 2nd 5/1

4.30 – In On The Act (micro runs) 9/1 UP

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/68,25p, +0.9) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/132, +24.6)

 

3.40 Carl – Saint Equiano – 1 point win – 5/1 (SkyB/WH/BB) 9/2 (gen) UP/last! ..

That was over after 3f sadly, I’m not sure G Lee will have much strength left in his arms after that. The horse settled ok the last day..he hasn’t here…pulled like mad and in this ground that was game over. Red mark net to his name, one to leave until he settles…as bit of guess work as to whether he will during the race. Damn. (albeit winner has dotted up so even if he had of settled he may still have struggled,didn’t give himself a chance) 

 

Well no doubt many of you have backed him as an ES,and I wouldn’t necessarily dive in again…unless you treat the test tips as a separate endeavour… but this one really does look the most interesting to my eyes, from the list above. And I think 5/1, 9/2 is fair enough. Aged 3 he is the only one today who really has any upside potential and he tries this trip for the first time. Given how he has won over 7f here three starts ago, i’d like to think he will relish it. He may not of course. He sluiced to victory in a soft ground maiden and that recent win was with cut. So, the ground could be ideal, and the lack of cut may well be a valid excuse for his last run. That Beverley run also suggests he is well worth a go at this trip. I think we may see a good performance as he relishes every yard up this soggy hill. He does have to prove he is up to C3 but that last run was ok, and he is unexposed. We cannot say as yet that he has stopped improving and can’t win at this level. He has a couple of ratings pointers to give us more confidence and there does seem enough pace/pace pushers, to suit his more hold up style. He will be doing his best work late on and hopefully he gets up in time. He faces quite a few here who are long in the tooth.

NOTEBOOK?... well, when looking at Father Bertie... when I see an out of form Easterby horse I do like to have a glance to see if they are plotting something (and that can be a good approach for the odd ‘been there and done it horse’)…anyway, this one has won the same Redcar C2 handicap in early October for the previous 2 seasons  I believe. Interesting. He is now well handicapped again. I wonder if we may see a tad more today, before he tries to bring up the hat-trick in under a month. So, add to the trackers, and we shall see if he pops up at Redcar soon. He does look out of form and his win would be a surprise here to me I think…I can’t see why he would suddenly bounce back and you want to see something. TEs micro age stats here are very close to ES territory mind.

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What else should I mention…well you wouldn’t be shocked if either of the other two ES quals ran some sort of race/bounced back, or if they didn’t do much. But you get a price at least and I will trust the stats and have something on. It is one of those handicaps. Argaki hates winning but if somehow he bounced into life (not sure why he would but ran well two starts ago up a hill,and being a hold up type won’t have helped LTO) and repeated his rare good runs,he would go close here. May depend on which side of the stable he rolled out of, and with that type you do want  a good price. Crazy Tornado doesn’t look too well treated- and is in danger of bumping into something with more in hand- but he is  a CD winner, has run well here over 7f in soft also (staying on well,this trip better) and has been running ok/in form. No forlorn hope.

Wolftrap…well, they say the ground is Good. They have had plenty of rain, and more last night. We may know by 3pm if that is the case. All of this one’s form is on soft really, and if it is soft, I would have a nibble. He is also unexposed at 3m and he has run the odd race which would give you hope. That last race wasn’t great but he did have a horrible trip round, and but for a clear run I suspect he would have been a ‘staying on 3rd’. Soft +3m may well find him out. Maybe 3m on Good is what he wants! 15/2 is ok given his profile and Hobbs is ‘in form again’ (that man is never ever out of form it seems, but he does go through hot spells) I wouldn’t put you off if you wanted a speculative nibble.

In On The Act…well I will just highlight that he gets first time blinkers here… and they do need to work! If they do then he is very well handicapped, and even more so with the claim from this young jock who is riding well. He tried chasing and didn’t really take to it, returning to hurdles LTO…where he ran appallingly really. I think they have reached for headgear for a reason, and it isn’t a positive one. We shall see, but he looks out of form to me.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Doncaster… St Leger Day 1 Video Preview (as requested by Tom).. notebooks at the ready…

 

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Doncaster St Leger Meeting NotesREAD HERE>>>

 

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DONCASTER DAY 1 (‘qualifiers’ against notes…)

 

IMPORTANT!!!>>>> I have used ratings pointers/form pointers from THE KEY, below… these are simply to help in any of your own analysis, to use as you please. THEY ARE NOT anything to do with section one and DO NOT qualify against any of the advised strategies…just added info of interest, to use/ignore as you please… (but the theory behind them all is the same..)

 

2.50 – ALL of Fahey’s IF 14/1< SP (hits that micro of sorts) (Crownthorpe H1, other two H3) No winners.

3.50 – Character Onsie (14/1<, 3yo+) 3rd

4.20 –

Six Strings (14/1<, Fahey ‘micro’) H3 I3 UP

Lahore 14  H1 I3 G1       WON 7/2 

Hyde Park… (if 5/1< would be a positive) UP

4.50 –

Mount Logan H3  (second in)  I1 G3 

Sumbal (7/1< the positive) H3 (3rd of 4 runners)  I3 

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Listowel  (‘qualifiers’ against notes…)

2.05 –

Cracking Name UP

Only Spoofing (hits all bullets for trainer I think,for info) UP

Gifted Lady UP

3.05

Canery Row, 14,30 H1 UP

Aussie Valentine UP

Dew Line , 14,30 UP

 

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FANCY OWNING A RACEHORSE?? (or share of..)

I have taken the plunge with a Juvenile hurdler and you are welcome to join me. You can find out more HERE>>> 

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RESULTS: Advised Strategy links have been updated in Key above.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    Skeltons got Just a Feeling in the 4.30. First run for him after 128 days from Webber. Done nowt in last few races at big odds but fav in this !! Will DS make that much difference? Be interested to know if it has a top rating.

    cheers

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 12/09/17 6:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      The market may guide no doubt…and bookies don’t seem to take many chances with his that have that kind of profile. Because of the trainer change angle…the idea is that he will clearly improve them (his TC stats very good,but market cottoned on in terms of systematically backing them- so just have to be picky) and as such ‘ratings’ may be irrelevant to a point. The yard is in decent form, the horse drops back by 3f and I suspect they may make plenty of use of him…given he placed in a bumper /21f in novice hurdles. He wore a TT for his last two runs for previous connections- you wouldn’t be shocked if they had tinkered with his wind. he was never fancied in the market for Webber so not as though he was disappointing in that sense, and did show some ability. Skelton will have been able to handicap him to a point in his homework with stablemates. Fitness wont be a problem – if they want him a1, he will be. He is lightly raced.. and he is a very good trainer. 10/3 may look massive- well it will if he is smashed into 2/1 / 6/4 and bolts up. If he is unsteady then who knows! final point… it is a very very weak race… the ‘been there and done it horses’ are generally ‘been there and haven’t done it!!’ – there is a lot of red on geegeez instant expert. So he may not need to be up to much.
      Do with that as you please!
      GL Josh

      Josh 12/09/17 7:37 PM Reply


  • Well…if every runner had that kind of analysis it wouldn’t take long to clear the chaff. It’d be rude not to have at least some beer money on now.

    cheers

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 12/09/17 7:51 PM Reply


    • Ha.. well most have that kind of analysis in my head! It took longer to type that up than to have a quick flick through geegeez/the horse haha. That prob took 2 mins, write up a couple more 🙂 10/3 with Betfred still. That may be decent enough,as may 3s. Early money is coming, but much closer to race will be revealing, but I wouldn’t put you off beer money…could well pay for a few pints… he may well win on ‘the snaff’. That or he will drift to 9/2+ and then there will be no beer.

      he ticks the boxes.. unexposed, doing a few things different (trainer change/drop in trip…possible wind op but educated guessing, in a weak race, trainer in form- and in fact is the only ‘in form’ trainer in the race)

      Josh 12/09/17 7:57 PM Reply


  • Many thanks for the video Josh, I had a cursory look at the card earlier today and thought blimey this is going to be fun finding winners, you have just confirmed my thoughts,. I went last year and had a good betting day, I had 4 winners, my nap was in the legends race with Joseph O Brien riding the winner. Even though it looks like there will be quite a few short price favs I will be looking for a bit of value where I think possible, probably on some of those you have highlighted.
    As I will be at raceside in the exquisite restaurant facilities they have (probably the best place to be with the expected forecasted weather) it will be a must for me to have a smallish interest bet in every race.
    Thanks again Josh for your time taken in going through the card, fingers crossed I can educate a few of the customers into at least having a shout.

    Tom Morton 12/09/17 9:25 PM Reply


  • Tempestatefloresco in the 4.05 @ Listowel catches my eye tomorrow at a huge price. Tizzard’s only runner of the week I believe. What attracts me is that Robbie Power is booked and they have a massive 70% winning S/R, 7 from 10, 8 places when teaming up in the last 2 years. Robbie hasn’t ridden this one before and it’s is only ride of the day. Form wise it looks to have been running pretty well, winning 3 of the last 4, 2 chases, 1 hurdles. This will be a harder test but they must feel it has a chance if they’ve sent it over and also booked Robbie. Only fly in the ointment is the ground, as it hasnt run on anything worse than good to soft and last year it seemed to me that Tizzard’s horses performed better on firmer ground, so theres a good chance it could be taken out. Still at 25/1 in some places I’m prepared to take a chance and if it doesn’t run you obv get your stake back in any case.

    JamesP 12/09/17 9:45 PM Reply


    • I had some of the 25’s earlier James and also our old friends in the 4.05 teaming up with Viva Steve @14’s. Odds dropping fast on this one.

      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 12/09/17 11:01 PM Reply


      • Ah, just seen Josh has put some of his hard earned down.

        titus_a_duxass 12/09/17 11:12 PM Reply


    • I never like putting anyone off before the race but I think they wanted Robbie to get a ride on the horse for the future since he was never going to do much in that ground.

      Nick Mazur 13/09/17 4:19 PM Reply


      • Yep i left him on ground…but in fairness to James/backers… is was a complete unknown. And at 25s can see why may have a nibble. Odd they still ran him mind, so you could be spot on with the jockey/horse relationship angle. He could win a decent pot on good…although he can lose his place in a race and needs a collapse. Still. Great race.

        Josh 13/09/17 4:22 PM Reply


  • Off to Uttoxeter tomorrow if anyone has any fancies? Cheers

    Tim Scott 12/09/17 9:59 PM Reply


    • I am about to do a post for my picks on the free post but After Eight Sivola looks to have a great chance in the 15:00 Tim

      Nick Mazur 12/09/17 10:39 PM Reply


    • Kayla in the 2.30 could be interesting, chase debut, all green in the Gee geez Instant Expert and being backed

      JamesP 13/09/17 11:47 AM Reply


  • Cheers Nick

    Tim Scott 12/09/17 10:50 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Can you explain section one Doncaster H1 H3 11 13 G1 G3 NONE

    Section four there are plenty of HI H3 11 13 G1 G3

    Just wondering if these are now classed as section one.

    Cheers

    colin leafe 13/09/17 9:21 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,

      I have added an ‘IMPORTANT’ note in section 4 which hopefully helps…

      general point… the sources of the qualifiers is completely different… section 1 is ONLY ever against my trainer track profiles stats packs, as per links in Key… Doncaster doesn’t have any qualifiers against that today.

      Section 4… all qualifiers in there, both Donny and Listowel… ‘qualify’ against my BIG MEETING trainer notes, nothing to do with the bread and butter Trainer Track Profile stats packs.

      Hope that helps, and thanks for asking. If you were thinking it no doubt others were and I do hate confusion, caused by myself!

      Josh

      Josh 13/09/17 9:31 AM Reply


      • Cheers Josh thought that would be the reply now i know

        colin leafe 13/09/17 10:53 AM Reply


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