Members Daily Post: 12/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Catterick

3.45 – Sarabi (micro going) I3 22/1 UP 25/1

4.15 –

Bold Spirit (4yo+) G3 10/3 WON 10/3>9/2 

Jungle George (micro going) 50/1

5.15 – Coiste Bodhar (micro going) I1 16/1 UP 25/1

 

Leicester

5.55 – Big Time Dancer (all hncps) 8/1 WON 8/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

3.05 – Prussian Eagle (hncp hurdle) 12/1 3rd 12/1>7/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/68,25p, +0.9) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/132, +24.6)

None.

No horses I have the confidence to ‘tip’ in and most of these are running at the lower end of the class scale which makes me nervous… and in any case most of those above are in that middle group of horses… that are neither ‘been there and done it’ and leap of the page in weak races or generally unexposed/doing something different, could be plenty more to come. BUT but but… I have reached into my ‘spare change confetti drawer’ as I think Sarabi and Coiste Bodhar may be worth something – and yes I bet to win long term, and I like to think I have some sort of ‘professional’ mindset when it comes to analysis (or forever trying to develop one!) – but when it comes to betting, I do bet for entertainment, fun, and in the hope I may win some ‘hobby’ money over time to spend on x,y,z.

I am hopeful rather than expectant, and they are a bit tentative… Sarabi… UP  well the blinkers are off from last run (far too keen,didn’t take to them) and the CP come back on, and drops back to C6. The ground is fine, having won at Donny over 5f in soft, in a class 4. She had been running as if ‘in form’ before that. Now, the glaring question is 6f. My heart says she doesn’t stay…my head says she hasn’t had many goes on turf, and not at C6 (in fact only one run over 6f C6 at Chelms) and there are numerous 5f runs where she has been ‘staying on’ and a few 6f races where she has done the same. And she has gone close enough at Southwell over 6f, and that takes some getting. I suspect that 6f on soft may just be a stretch too far… but she is well handicapped with the claim and only aged 4. She has some ability. And you never know, these conditions may have been what she has wanted all along! So, at a big price, I will have a small dart for entertainment. I wouldn’t fall of my seat if she won.

Coiste Bodhar… UP  well I am a bit more confident on the one above, mainly on fitness grounds. This one returns after 90+ days and the trainer’s record at readying them after such an absence wouldn’t fill you with confidence. But he does have the odd winner (4/94,15p, 60+ days, flat handicaps, last 5 years…hmmmm) But all conditions are fine.. 5f, C6 on turf is his thing, and he has won on soft. He will also race prominently. And the market never usually guides with him, three wins in the 14/1-20/1 range. He will be up there for a time, just depends if the lack of run tells in the closing stages. I suspect it will but at his price I wanted to have another small nibble.

I thought those two looked of some interest. Jungle George hasn’t shown anything as yet and looks very moderate. I think I would want to see market support but it would be just my luck that I back the other two and he bolts up at 50s! (name your price BFSP no doubt) I can’t see it, but who knows.

 

I will mention Big Time Dancer WON 8/1 (nose) as I am on the fence…I can feel the splinters… he drops from Class 4 to C6, moves up in tip from 8 to 10f. Those two things caught the eye. But,he does just look out of sorts and hasn’t been ‘staying on’ over 8f, like an in form horse who has just been out-paced. He has been going backwards. As a 4 year old this trip may unlock more and maybe he isn’t up to C4. But I wasn’t finding myself being overly bullish…that recent form, the fact it is a c6 and Ellison is only 6/65,21p with horses he moves in distance by 20%+ from last run, put me off ‘tipping’ I suppose. He is lightly enough raced and doing two big things differently. And the trainer is in better form than he has been…Ellison hasn’t had a consistent season really and was in the doldrums for a large part of the ‘summer’- he will hit some red hot form at some point. Something to watch. He may be worth another small nibble.

One of those days. I would not be shocked if they are all running this time tomorrow, or if there was a surprise in that list somewhere. So, not a day to go mad, but one where we ‘could’ have some fun for small stakes. Maybe.

Prussian Eagle… 3rd  well he is rock bottom of HRB ratings which always nags at me over jumps. In general they have a very poor record but they do win. He ran ok on turf LTO, was poor in a C3 hurdle before that, but won a weak enough hurdle the race before that.  I suppose he is no forlorn hope and is in the 10/1-25/1 range for any systematic strategy backers. They have had a mad time of it in recent weeks and if you haven’t been backing them systematically, don’t go diving in head first now. As always start small, esp with that approach. They have and will again hit losing runs up to 40 odd, and numerous in the 15-25 range. This one does have some pace to aim at, but I think quite a few in here have achieved more. He doesn’t leap out on instant expert and Williams doesn’t have any ‘in form’ indicators, but they have been going well enough.

 

As always  don’t let any of that sway you, especially putting you off a dabble on something. Never let me dissuade you from a bet.

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VIDEO… i’ve decided that anything under 20 minutes is a ‘quick’ video :)… below I have just taken a look back at Moorlands Jack (didn’t back/mention in notes) and The Clock Leary (mentioned/backed)… I take a quick look at my thought process pre race and post race. I thought some of you may find it of interest… with any luck…

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

2.15 Catt- Bay Station (any) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

LISTOWEL BIG MEETING NOTESREAD HERE>>>

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NEW!

Doncaster St Leger Meeting Notes: READ HERE>>>

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Results Update: 

I will update the ‘advised strategies’ links above asap.. all done, just need to upload…  I won’t dwell for too long on them as a) the flat didn’t do too well 🙂 and b) a week is a short time in this game/with this general ‘no odds/not top end of market’ approach…

FLAT.. well it was just a case of knocking on the door… I think that was the first week where there were NO winners at all across any of the strategies. Gulp. There was plenty of crossover on qualifiers and not too much damage done if backing them just the once…but across the 6 strategies explored in the link in the key… there were 25 qualifiers (inc multiples)… 14 of them finished second or third. How’s your luck?! The Elite Squad was 0/7,5 places, as an example.

JUMPs… they did a bit better, another winner for the big odds 10/1-25/1 strategy helped them to +9 points, Elite Squad were 1/7,1p, -2.7 if backing all.

Links will be updates asap if you wish to have a closer look, review/contemplate how you may approach section 1 etc etc.

 

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Listowel Notes

(‘qualifiers’ that hit at least one of the pointers from notes above. I would use as starting points to further analysis…like most stats on these pages they look at trainer records and are nothing to do with the actual horse..ie they may be atrocious on heavy!) 

There are no speed ratings for Irish races, but have added HRB H1/H3, and trainer form indicators as per Key… which you may find of some use…

 

2.10 – Tonkin (the right Prendergast I think!)  H1  WON 9/4 

2.40 – Enjoy Life 

3.40 – Valentana UP / Prove The Point UP 30 

4.40 – On The Go Again 30 H3  WON 6/1>7/2 

 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • BTW Josh one extra way in for the St Leger Festival is looking at Andrea Atzeni.
    Over the last 3 years he is 18/59, 33p +59.96
    14/33, 20p +50.46 in 3yr+ races including 8/13, 8p +45.13 in non-handicaps
    17/42, 27p +73.21 over 7f or more
    12/30, 19p +33.46 for the 5 trainers mentioned (hasn’t ridden for Fahey yet)
    13/23, 17p +26.96 SP 9/2 or less (although I wouldn’t limit the SP given he has had a 25/1 winner)
    15/38, 20p +70.83 finished top 4 LTO
    Alternatively looking at 3yr+ races, 6.5f+ which finished top 4 LTO we get 11/18, 12p +55.33 most of which came from riding for Varian or Cumani (plus 1/1 for Prescott, Fanshawe and Tinkler)
    Hopefully we can have some fun with this.

    Nick Mazur 11/09/17 10:35 PM Reply


    • I might be overdoing this but if you take out horses which haven’t ran in the last 90 days and those which have had more than 8 runs in the same handicap code as the race (so either those not fit enough or over exposed) to go with the 3yr+ old races, 6.5f+ and top 4 LTO you get 10/13, 11p +56.58

      Nick Mazur 11/09/17 11:21 PM Reply


      • Hi Nick,

        Brilliant work mate. Well done and many thanks.

        jarrodholmes68 12/09/17 7:09 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick, superb stattage… yep as yet I have never really focused on jockeys and maybe I should consider at least attempting to find one to focus on. I did note his name cropping up for a few of our 5 as you point out…and I am always slightly nervous about jockeys at big meetings as their success can very much be down to who they ride for. I mean he is just one of the best around anyway, and clearly rides the track just fine…
      one angle I may just dive into look at is whether he has ridden the horse before, or whether he rode them last time out… (he wouldn’t usually ride for Fansahwe et al, so his booking may be a clear indication of intentions) but given those stats it would be unwise not to keep him on our radar. Top work… are you going to point out the quals/positives throughout the week?? 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 12/09/17 7:16 AM Reply


      • Morning Josh,

        I don’t normally but it keeps getting mentioned on TV that he rides well here so I thought I would have a look. I have the bottom one saved on HRB now so will try and point them out at least even if I am in Bristol on Thursday and Friday (although the 4 hours of traveling should give me ample time to look at the systems).

        Nick

        Nick Mazur 12/09/17 8:27 AM Reply


        • Further to your superb Atzeni observations I would add the following observations… and I wouldn’t have looked at him if you hand’t have posted…

          – his overall record is just mad in the last three years suggesting that all of his runners are worth a look..and rather than having a ‘what runners should I discount’ mindset, may be best to have a ‘what runners should I mark up/have more confidence in’ – that is a subtle difference, but can be important..as the starting point is a case of ‘wanting’ to back all of his runners, rather than put a line through them.

          -7f+ seems worth some attention, systematically maybe, as do 3yo+ races as you highlight
          – I would ‘mark up’ those that are 9/2< and/or Top 4 LTO... rather than say 'ignore' those that were 5th or worst... 3/20,12 places...he has gone very close on many, and a few at big prices - On those horses he has never ridden before (so a trainer behavioural change>booking Atzeni) 9/20,12p, +59 BFSP

          -Did NOT ride the horse LTO… 15/42,24p, +79 BFSP

          I mean his overall stats are damn good. It will be interesting if the market overreacts if this record is getting more general air time

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          Jamie Spencer has a decent record also, albeit a blip last year…but…

          -Horse 4+ career runs… 6/27,8p, +29 BFSP
          – 4+ career runs, 6f or further… 6/22,8p, +34
          – sent off in the 7/1-11/1 SP price range (as guide) 5/11,5p, +42 (not sure knowing him you’d want to back at much shorter prices anyway,unless a small field and you think he may make all)
          -ridden horse 3+ times in career… 3/10,4p, +20
          – 17/18 runner races… 3/5,3p, +23…. 17+ runners… 3/7,3p… no surprise given his style,big fields, can tend to go too quick, his style suited to such races/and it seems at this track) He is a CD Jockey for Donny over a certain distance, so clearly something there.

          Maybe we will keep an eye on those two jocks and add to the pot.

          Josh

          Josh 12/09/17 9:41 AM Reply


          • Yeah I know I shouldn’t tighten it too much but I guess that’s my downfall at times with micros. You’re better on that side of things Josh.

            Its a good thing you mentioned Spencer since in theory given he has been Cumani’s go to jockey this year (and Atzeni has barely ridden for him) so you would expect him to end up with the rides Andrea would have gotten in the past.

            It makes sense about the LTO ridden stats.

            Nick Mazur 12/09/17 11:31 AM Reply


      • Apart from they ride a particular course well and that trainers they ride for focus on that course/meeting, why else would a jockey have success at a course if it was not relative short term randomness? Any thoughts?

        martin colwell 12/09/17 9:46 AM Reply


        • Yep those two points are the main ones.. and that concern on randomness is why I think I have never gone head first into big meeting jockeys… it is very much tied to the horses they are riding, which is very much tied to the records of those they are riding for.. in general.

          With humans, trainers/jockey, you are looking for logical behaviour, which is what hopefully gives you some confidence in what will always be relatively small sample sizes….

          Atzeni… that not riding the horse before, or not LTO… and what we know about him.. suggests he is just a master of his craft and one of the very best…horses respond to him it seems, and how he rides clearly suits this track…or his timing/coolness etc suits this track, and he is a big race rider, with a big race head/heart…so would make sense he does well at certain ‘big meetings’ with decent/pressure races say. So, other than those two points you mention.. the idea that a horse simply improves for him riding it (again that is complex,as horse may have been targeted at the meeting and was going to improve whatever- but that is where him simply being booked is the trigger….)

          There is logic if he is booked to ride a horse for the first time…that is linked to said trainer clearly expecting a big run from their horse and wanting to book what they may see as the best. And some trainers do their jockey research/track research etc… the Johnstons once said they primarily aim to book jockeys suited to the horse but also who they think is best suited to said track…which is why on one day you will find Franny N at one track, Joe fanning at another, as an aside.

          They need the horse, that is the main thing. And Atzeni, for whatever reason, is clearly getting on plenty of good ones/those primed to the max, esp at this meeting it seems. He will have a poor year soon enough, esp if his main trainers fail to fire. As always just a guide/starting point I think.

          Spencer… well he is generally different as we know his style, and how generally he likes to settle horse, come with a late run etc… and that style clearly suited to certain CDs, and as with the big field stats- no surprise. Again though will be linked to certain trainers to an extent.

          Josh

          Josh 12/09/17 10:01 AM Reply


  • St Leger Trainers – Luca in fine form – but word of warning about the Simcock yard 1/27 and 24 runs since a winner – Just to note and worth tracking next few days to see if theres an upturn

    finalflight 12/09/17 11:00 AM Reply


  • Not a bad day at all today Josh a couple of winners on here and one for the free post.
    Well done.
    Happy days.

    warren bottomley 12/09/17 6:39 PM Reply


    • Yep can’t complain with that, didn’t have a penny on Bold Spirit and missed fact he went out to 9/2- albeit no idea what I would have done with that info if my finger was hovering over the ‘bet’ button! Had a little tickle on the Ellison horse in the end… lucky for him the horse who passed him is a monkey and seemed to pull his head back when hitting the front, won’t complain at a nose victory. Nice 6/1 for the Listowel notes also, so can’t complain. A fun day for small stakes. Onto tomorrow.

      Josh 12/09/17 6:54 PM Reply


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