Free Daily Post: 12/09/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

5.25 Leic- Waady (any odds)

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A qualifier from the Members’ ‘Test Zone’ below, as well as qualifiers against my Big Meeting Notes for Listowel… 

Jockey CD

2.15 Catt- Bay Station (any)

 

Listowel Notes

(‘qualifiers’ that hit at least one of the pointers from the exclusive Members’ notes. I would use as starting points to further analysis…like most stats on these pages they look at trainer records and are nothing to do with the actual horse..ie the horse may be atrocious on heavy!) 

There are no speed ratings for Irish races, but i’ve added HorseRaceBase  H1/H3, and trainer form indicators as per Key… which you may find of some use…

2.10 – Tonkin (the right Prendergast I think!)  H1 

2.40 – Enjoy Life

3.40 – Valentana / Prove The Point 30 

4.40 – On The Go Again 30 H3 

 

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GL with any bets.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • A couple for me tomorrow. Firstly I like the look of Dukes Girl in the 16:45 at Catterick. Michael Bell is 6/10, 7p in handicaps here in the past 2 years including 5/8 with Louis Steward on board. (this improves to 4/5 in class 5 or lower). The horse comes out of a hot races with the 3rd and 5th winning NTO. The winner actually went up 9lbs for that win yet the pick remains on the same weight despite being less than a length behind. Drops back into a class 5 and I think there is a decent chance he will get his way up front and hopefully Louis can make all.

    I also want a bet on Solstalla in 15:05 at Worcester. Looks like a very solid e/w bet at 9s. Has been a model of consistency over course and distance recently and each of his races have worked out well. Is top on GGG speed ratings and 2nd on HRB ratings (top rated is 6lbs worse off from their meeting 5 starts ago so he should overcome the 4l defeat). Won on this card last year and is 2/4, 3p in September so this is his time of the year. Trainer and jockey have combined to go 4/10, 7p at the track over hurdles. Nico gets on very well with him and I expect him to be thereabouts once again.

    Nick Mazur 11/09/17 9:44 PM Reply


    • Was just about to come on here and put up Dukes girl Nick! Should of checked here first and saved myself 20 minutes of research!

      Only thing i’d add and its another positive is that on the breeding side its on a line through Dubawi and his prodg are 1 from 3 over C&D on Soft.

      All the favs form is on AW and 2nd fav has been winning Class 6s narrowly but both have more weight on their back than Dukes Girl. 5/1 looks generous

      jamesP 11/09/17 10:28 PM Reply


      • Yeah I forgot to add the bit about the favourite winning only on AW and is up 8lb(although Prescott does have a good record here). Good to know about the breeding since that probably isn’t my strength.

        Nick Mazur 11/09/17 10:38 PM Reply


        • WOLFCATCHERJACK (IRE) b. C, 2014 {9-c} DP = 2-2-7-4-1 (16) DI = 0.88 CD = 0.00

          DOSAGE INDEX is a fair gauge of a horses stamina
          as you can see from WOLFCATCHERJACK dosage figures(taken from pedigree query .com)
          his figures read 2-2-7-4-1
          the first two figures are about speed the third is class and the last two are stamina
          so a big sprint would have figures like 10-10-20-0-0
          while an out and out stayer you would be looking at 2-2-7-11-22
          if a horse like Ardross in in the pedigree then there will be big numbers to the right(high stamina)
          if you have Kodiac out of a lyric fantasy for instance you will have very high number to the left speed.

          the higher the Di the more sprinter bred a horse is, an out and sprinter on both sides of the pedigree
          would have a di of plus 4
          while a horse like Thistlecrack who is by gold cup winner KAYF TARA
          out of a mare Ardstown who was the daughter or ARDROSS another gold cup winner
          has a very low di and big points in the stamina make up of the figures
          the horse that can buck the numbers are German breds who can have
          false figures because their pedigree often has much more stamina than the di suggests
          lomitas is a prime example most of his offspring have abundant stamina but you
          would know it from Dosage index
          Interesting while lomitas has a great stamina index, on soft ground they are much worse than on quicker
          going

          © 2017 Select Web Ventures

          peter 12/09/17 11:28 AM Reply


  • West Ham 2-0 Huddersfield worse possible result for me and lost all bets.

    But redemption lies at Catterick where they stage 5 races over either 5 or 6f.
    when the ground is soft at Catterick high drawn horses are often favoured in the sprints
    my plan is to watch the 1.45,2.15 and 3.45 to see if the winners are switched to the stand side(high drawn)
    if the winners in these races come from high stalls it will make the 4.15 and 5.15
    betting prospects.

    the first two in the tissue for the 4.15 are Bold Spirit drawn 1 and Spirit Of Zebedee drawn 4
    from those draws they could be struggling if the high drawn horse are at an advantage I will be very keen to take on SOZ who is 0-5 on soft ground from stall 4

    CORRIDOR KID has stall 12 and is unexposed at 6f so could out run his price
    as he handled g/s ok last time

    in the 5.15 CAMANCHE GREY could have the best stall has won on soft and has the excellent Graham Lee
    on board will take all the beating if high numbers are favoured.

    I have a little ploy they has worked quite well in the past while watching the first sprint
    I will have the betfair page opened on the 5.15.

    if at the furlong pole in the first sprint the high numbers are switched stand side and are clear
    I will back stalls 14 13 and 12 in the 5.15 before
    the first sprint has finished giving the crowd less time to react to the bias.

    if you have judged it right and high draw is shown to be at a big advantage
    in sprint races 2,3 and 4.
    by the 5.15 the prices on the three you have backed will have shortened
    ie in running of the first sprint at the furlong marker high looks to be the place to be stalls 12 13 and 14 in the 5.15
    are 10/1 8/1 and 12/1 have a £100 on each of them
    if the 2nd 3rd and 4th sprints show a clear high draw advantage
    then the same horses will be 8/1 6/1 and 10/1 closer to the off at which point you lay them all back for 100
    so with the high horses having the advantage you have three horses running for you
    with £200 profit if any of them win and no down side if they don’t
    if races 2 3 and 4 don’t highlight any high draw advantage you perceived from the first race at the furlong pole you trade out at a small loss.
    The real bonus is the first sprint only has 9 runners so if the winner is drawn high and comes stand side
    the advantage will be bigger in the 14 runner 5.15

    peter 12/09/17 9:09 AM Reply


  • Staking is an interesting part of betting and I have tried many systems
    but checking my records it shows quite clearly I have good runs of winning then
    have a mare and lose big either losing all the gains or worse killing my betting pot.

    but I have come up with a much better system for me. I have a daily stop at limit(at present £100)
    so if I lose £100 in a day then that is it no exceptions.
    This stops the disaster days when I have lost over 2 grand.
    I have checked my profit and loss over the last 10 years and if stands at plus £220
    which is poor for such a long period.
    but there are 20plus days when £2000 plus has been lost
    the beauty of this method is there is no limit how much I can win but only a maximum downside
    of £100.
    bookies thrive with losing punters carrying on to be in profit for the day and losing big time

    I would be interested in the views of other punters as maybe I just lack self discipline
    but I think to a fair percentage of players this can be a problem

    peter 12/09/17 9:20 AM Reply


    • Hi Peter,

      Well that is rather blunt and honest of you.. I would say…
      -the majority of punters do lose long term and if your records are accurate than actually to have won any money over a decade say is good going, in the general scheme of things… clearly you treat the sport/betting as a hobby, and you will have had plenty of fun along the way.. so actually to be in profit from a hobby over a 10 year period, is good going

      -if say you are unhappy with such a return… it does pose the question of should you be doing something different/changing approach? You touch on the staking.. I am quite boring on that front but am of the firm belief that any approach should work on level staking, and i have never been a fan of betting a % of a bank, as I think that can paper over cracks etc. But that is just me.

      hopefully you know over that period of what works and what doesn’t. As I always say, specialism and focus is very important in my mind…

      -i only bet on horses generally (ok maybe the odd other small bet on golf if a good tip,as per Colin on these pages, or odd footy bet but they are very rare)

      – i am a handicap punter. And for good reason. I find them easier to analyse and the odds are much better, better chance of finding value to be…and lends itself to trainer records etc where is is the trainer, rather than the quality of the horse, that makes a difference (ie a trainer can have a great record in maidens one year, but if they have a poor year at the sales, lose a big owner etc, that can impact on results) For me you want as few ‘could be anything’ horses in a race as possible. The more known knowns the better.

      – the only race type I ever attack ‘cold’, from scratch, are 3m+ handicap chases, C4 and above. That is what I like targeting, what I relish analysing and enjoy watching.

      -also a focus on big race trends/stats shortlists. That is another approach. And also big meeting trainer notes.

      -Finally.. then the trainer micro systems, members posts, starting point qualifiers against various things. That is a trainer focused, and then ‘horse focused’ (using trainer stats as starting point) , rather than a race focused approach… ie I see if I can make a case for said horse, rather than looking at every runner in a race in depth. Of course there is also the systematic element to that, which systems I follow blind etc.

      – and that is it I think. I may have missed something but my approach to racing is covered by that little lot. It may seem a lot, I am not sure. But that is the focus. And I don’t think you need to over-complicate this game too much…

      In honesty I read some of your comments and get a bit lost haha- some of your approach to X is far too complicated for me personally but you have to do what you enjoy/what gets your brain ticking over etc.

      My point there…is that whatever approach you take, you may benefit from trying to become an ‘expert’ at something, or feel comfortable in a certain area than in others. I simply don’t have time to look at any other sports in the same depth as racing, not that I would want to. And even with that more focused approach it is still bloody tough. But i like trying to solve the puzzle.

      But I suppose you have to ask what you want from the game, or general sports betting etc. If you are not happy with that return over 10 years it would suggest you need to change something?

      Josh

      p.s oh, and we all lack self discipline to a point, every single punter. It is probably what marks out the pros from the rest of us! I am much much better than I used to be… some rules.. I make sure I have bet down before racing, by x point in morning…and then will endeavour to not bet any more. If I couldn’t make a case in the morning, that should be that. And also, we all like a dart etc every now and then..having a ‘fun bank’ or a ‘dart’ amount is important, say £2.50 or something…analysing a race for an hour and betting £20, and analysing a race 1 minute before the off for a dart, on a Sat afternoon because you want to be entertained on said race, and betting £20…is criminal, and makes no sense! And is frustrating. Having some loose rules to manage any ill discipline is key, and will save you/win you so much more in the long run.

      Josh 12/09/17 10:13 AM Reply


      • The real answer Josh is my discipline is poor.
        prior to the 10 years of betting I made handsome profits arbing and
        trading.
        SO good in fact that the bookies restricted my account to very low limits
        to arbers and traders unless you have hundreds on the whole thing is pointless.

        so as an arber no day showed a loss and I built up steady profits
        when that door closed I took up punting as I have a big racing knowledge
        and did very well to start with but as an arber I never lost so when as a punter
        I found myself down on the day I wanted it back and so had a few mares.

        The mindset is totally different and I was still playing with a arber trader mentality
        it is so easy for a new player with access to all on line betting sites and the exchanges
        to double their opening £2000 kitty to £4000 within three months
        I have done this for several mates and at first they didn’t believe me
        but the bookies intro offers can be traded and arbed very easily

        eg bet365 offer £200 in free bet for new customers once you have met certain conditions
        and if you know the method £160 profit with no risk is assured
        so if you take up all the offers in the first month you make £1000 no risk
        straight away.
        then you use the many strategies to make matched betting work

        Jack Green has written several books on matched betting
        that can be found on amazon so if any would be punters out there want to
        build up a 2 grand betting kitty just contact me or get Jacks books and it will
        explain the method

        it is not really punting but playing numbers but it is assured profit
        my sin is I have tried to mix punting with matched betting and have had limit success
        in 4 year of matched betting I made £30k but in 10 years of punting £220
        I think it shows where my strength lies

        I am a wiz with numbers and percentages and pretty knowledgeable about racing
        but in truth I am a terrible punter because I am can’t believe that I will lose on the day
        and can have nightmares over playing my hand.

        arrogance, lack of self discipline, ego, emotion and the high and lows are all the things punters have to deal with.

        matched bettors don’t go so deep into the well character wise so is much easier
        to stay calm.

        To me it isn’t a hobby it is very serious but that is the main problem once things get
        that serious your whole person is in the activity and tension creeps in

        with the new limits I have set only losing max £100 a day has taken off the pressure
        and I am enjoying it again.
        when I am enjoying it I am a much better punter QED.

        within all of us there is a champion who handled properly can achieve miracles
        but there is also the chump who can ruin you.

        If you don’t see the possible Chump you are in trouble because its you/me.

        peter 12/09/17 10:49 AM Reply


        • Some good, thought provoking, comments in there.
          Matched betting is certainly a way forward… I personally don’t find ‘just numbers’ and that trading mindset very enjoyable, and wouldn’t have the mindset/tenacity to stick at it. But many will, and like you, have done very well.

          Yep my hobby point was more to do with the income side of things, ie horse punting is not ‘the’ income, etc, not a professional punter in that sense. So, racing for me is a hobby in that betting is not an income source, if I can make X a year to spend on the odd treat I am happy..while always wanting to get better. I don’t have a hobby mindset I suppose, like you I take attacking the game very seriously and want to do the best I can.
          But I think, if you were to rely on racing, or any sport, as your main income.. that is a completely different ball game altogether, mentally/discipline, anyway. And of course then getting bets on etc.

          Josh

          Josh 12/09/17 10:56 AM Reply


          • the best time in racing I every had was when I was racing manager
            for a syndicate our horse Oniz Tiptoes won 9 races
            and we had several other winners.

            John Wainwright is a good friend of mine and I was gutted that he was accused of
            race fixing by Carter because he is the most honest trainer I have ever met
            The big trainers seem to get away with running horse who are schooling in public
            with no problem but they are always looking out for coup and fiddles
            from the smaller guys and to be fair there are rouges out there who will
            try and make a quick buck but when the good guys like John are tarred with the same brush it is
            a travesty

            peter 12/09/17 11:10 AM Reply


          • I dont mind a betting bank per day as a principle, however I think it is best to go with a maximum number of bets today, for instance 3 or 4 max. I bet to win a certain amount per horse, say £500, and so the stake sorts itself based upon the price. Just another way to do it I guess. I do make a profit from horse racing but I spend 7 to 8 hours per day on it and so it is a job to me. I appreciate mostly all of you have a proper job, apart from Josh!

            martin colwell 12/09/17 6:10 PM Reply


  • If the horses you mention in the 5:15 are to be backed at 100 each and you are 100% certain the prices will fall then I guess you will have some free bets. What if they don’t fall, what do you do then? It seems that would be panic time trying to cut your losses. At this point it appears to me that your daily stop limit is in danger but maybe I’m not understanding your approach here.
    I’m sure most people that use the exchanges to bet have tried backing and laying at some stage even if its just for fun. I’ve tried it for fun with mixed results with very small stakes knowing it is virtually impossible to consistently make money this way unless you have a deep understanding of the markets and are using a betting bot, mainly because this is no longer betting on horses but trading.
    Now and again I’ll back at a big price and set a lay at around 3 or 4 just to make a small profit if it runs well and fades or gets pipped close home, if it doesn’t get matched then move on, but apart from that I back level stakes as that is the best way to manage the bank, discipline and emotion. I’ll be backing Nora Batt in that race as its a system bet for me, its halved in price over night so I missed a trick there! The only system bets I don’t back are 2/1 and under. Will it win? probably not I guess. Do I care? not really! We all back more losers than winners. All the best, today and the future.

    Chris Albin 12/09/17 10:32 AM Reply


    • The key is the draw if it is clearly shown in the early races
      that the high draw is favoured then the prices on the 5.15 will drop
      if they don’t you lay off for £85 per horse at a bigger price

      eg backed £100 at 12/1 lay later 85 at 14/1 so worse case you lose £15
      so on three horses you would lose £45 well within the £100 stop loss
      as one of the horse is a big long shot I would only back for £30 so a big negative wont be against you

      the key is the first race you must be sure that the high numbers have a massive advantage at the furlong pole
      on fast ground they will all stay far side and low will have the edge
      if you see as they swing into the straight the horses head off the bend to the stand side(side closest to you)
      then you can be 99% certain the jocks have walked the track and the better ground is there
      in a 9 runner race a horse coming to the stand side off the bend will lose about 4 lengths
      so to do so they must be confident that the better ground stand side will be worth
      more than 4 length
      so if you see in race one horses switch to the stand side 4 or five lengths clear
      at the furlong pole then there must be a big ground advantage that side
      in a bigger field that will be a stronger bias as stall 14 is closer to the better ground
      on the stand rail than stall 9 in race 1

      peter 12/09/17 11:01 AM Reply


      • Nice of you explain a bit of background Peter, thanks. I pay no attention to draw at all in my boring systematic ways so I’m out of my depth with your approach! I find that ditching emotional attachment by creating systems has helped me start to make a profit and improve my discipline immensely. My concern is when I reach higher stakes is if that will effect things but I’ll cross that bridge when I get there. In the meantime I’ll take note from the ‘been there and dunnits’ like yourself.

        Chris Albin 12/09/17 11:36 AM Reply


        • Thanks Chris to be fair as a punter I beat myself by lacking the punters mindset
          but I am a wiz at trading and arbing

          So for anyone out there who is interested I will share some of my trading secrets

          Secret 1 we are coming up to Doncasters St Ledger meeting
          and what a high percentage of punters don’t know is the course is the hardest
          in the country to make all the running over all distances.

          The system in simple lay any horse after 1 furlong in running if they are at least a length in front
          although you may be a few seconds behind with the feeds they will still likely to be ahead after 2 f
          so not really a problem but the feed on bet365 will be a couple of seconds in front of atr which is way behind real time
          only about 10% of out right leaders win at Donny so if you lay anything 8/1sp or lower in the
          win market and horse 9/1 to 16/1sp in two to be placed market
          17/1 to 33/1sp in the 3 to be placed market and big outsiders sp in the 4 to be placed market
          you will show a profit.
          it goes against the grain because in a 6f race a 8/1 sp horse will likely be layable at
          5/1 or less if a length or more clear after a furlong but in reality it should be a 12/1 shot to stay in front

          peter 12/09/17 11:57 AM Reply


  • Golf Bets BMW Championship
    Henrick Stenson 1 point EW 25/1 1/4 5 CO BF BV BB BW 365
    Had a break for 2 weeks to be relaxed and in the right frame of mind for this,plays Conway well finishing 10th in 2015

    Daniel Berger 1 point EW 66/1 1/4 5 CO BF BV BB BW
    Not quite living up to his potential but at 66/1 and a 2nd place here in 2015 that will do for me

    A good start last week with Matt Fitzgerald winning at 28/1 in a play off
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 12/09/17 10:36 AM Reply


  • My staking plan is quite simple

    Over the course of a week my average is 1 in 5 winners

    I don’t bet favs so i start with a 1 point bet and progress by
    seeing the price of the next.

    Then adding enough to cover what i’ve lost plus enough
    to make a profit.

    Stopping at a winner and returning to my original stake.

    eg. 1 point win on a loser on my first bet

    Next bet say 4/1 so 1 point win

    = 2 points laid 5 points return if it wins and so on.

    It works for me and i suppose I’m lucky in the fact that it’s been profitable

    My longest losing run as been 8 but the next won at 10/1

    I was down by 17.50 pts So only needed to put 2 points on the 10/1
    to recover losses and make a profit.

    Then return to my 1 point stake

    Luckily it works for me.

    Cliff 12/09/17 10:55 AM Reply


    • Sounds a plan but what happens if you hit a Jonjo O,Niell
      type losing streak of 20+ losers?

      peter 12/09/17 11:04 AM Reply


    • You can expect to see a losing streak of around 20 over 100 bets with possible other losing streaks of 10+. These figures will increase as more bets are placed. As you have no way of predicting the price of your next 20 bets therefore you don’t know how much you will be staking either. This begs the question ‘Do you know if your bank can sustain 20 losses at continually increased stakes?’ If it can then great…If it can’t then….

      Chris Albin 12/09/17 11:09 AM Reply


      • I must consider myself lucky then

        I don’t bet more than 10 to 12 horses a week

        sometimes only 2 or 3

        I started betting in 1963 and i’ve never had a run of 20 losers
        in all those years.

        My longest losing run in all that time has only been 8

        god help me if i had 20 losers on the trot.

        Yesterday for instance i picked out 30 horses i fancied but
        didn’t bet because there was not 1 stand out bet

        From the 30 I had 3 winners

        Including Intense Stylist at 33/1

        So had I bet them all I would have been in profit.

        I guess I’ve been very very lucky over the years

        I think if i had 20 losers on the trot I’d give up.

        I see people betting in hundreds and thousands
        that’s not for me
        I could never afford that anyway

        I’ll stick with my little bets

        Racings for fun not for losing Vast amounts

        I’ll never be rich because my stakes are low

        If i live to be 100

        I’ll still enjoy watching racing
        with or without a bet on the race.

        Cliff 12/09/17 11:50 AM Reply


        • Cliff I take my hat off to you
          if in 54 years your worst losing run is only 8 you must be
          one of the best selectors ever.
          Congratulations
          Pete

          peter 12/09/17 12:06 PM Reply


          • I suppose I’ve been Very lucky

            I won a very large amount of money on a 3p e-w hienze
            5 winners and a 2nd
            (the 2nd cost me the million max pay out)

            I then joined the original Isiris,

            Anyone hold enough to recall him knows how fantastic he was.
            He won enough money to buy himself a title.

            He was finally banned off racecourses for underhand dealings.

            I then found a tipster called, 10 little indians

            who had a 60% s/r for a year with prices up to 14/1.
            (he got closed down for stealing inside info)

            My next lucky find was a person called Maryka

            I remember her phoning me one evening saying
            I’m with the trainers daughter and her husband at Wolverhampton
            They are carrying wads to bet their horse.

            I got on at 16/1 it won 10/1 gambled in from 25/1

            It was Maryka who phoned about a betting coup that was going to take place
            horse opened 100/1 and was gambled into 6/1 and won

            I then was lucky enough to get with Matt Doyle the pro gambler
            again a fantastic tipster and exceptionally profitable

            Then after 3 minor heart attacks and 1 major one a few years back

            I decided to stop paying for tips and starting picking my own

            dropping my bets to small stakes and enjoying it more.

            i love looking into josh’s site to look for information
            from the good posters on here.

            I check it out against a few other things
            Then decide if i have a bet for the day or not.

            Cliff 12/09/17 12:49 PM Reply


            • wow Cliff sounds like you have had some massive good breaks and some equally massive bad ones.
              do you Matts mo are do you use your own ideas?

              not really a follower of tips myself but I love logic so would be interested on your
              ideas of how you reach a selection rather than the selection itself.

              Was the 100/1 to 6/1 the Patrick Veitch 2 year who won 2nd time up after
              running down the field fto fitted with blinkers and trained by Stuart Williams

              peter 12/09/17 1:17 PM Reply


  • The horses name was Exponential

    S. Williams was the trainer.

    opened 100/1 and within a short time it was trading as low as 6/1

    won the race at 8/1 sp

    ——————————-

    I look at selections posted with good quality stats

    then check the betting and the speed figures

    I take into account it’s form on the going and the time of year
    including the form of the trainer overall plus the track.

    most of this is put up by the tipster but not all.

    if i was betting today i think

    DUKES GIRL

    is a strong type to bet on

    What puts me off a bet is the money in the race for 3 others

    4.15 EXTRASOLAR 13/2

    He’s down in grade to a Class 6 in which he has never raced in,
    He returns to a track where he has shown his best form.

    He was 3rd here beaten 3/4L back in May off 71,
    Followed that up with A 2nd behind Meshardal, who Won Twice following that run.

    He had Bold Spirit in behind him that day who is favourite here,
    He is 8lb better off at the weights.

    He runs off just 64 here, 8lb lower than that run behind Meshardal,

    I think he Could have a fantastic chance here.

    No bet for me because of the money for
    EXCELLENT WORLD 12/1
    —————————

    Cliff 12/09/17 1:49 PM Reply


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