Members Daily Post: 08/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ascot 

5.00- Storm Ahead (3yo+) 14,30  I3 12/1

5.30 – Outer Space (3yo+)  – …..   I1  16/1 (late addition after ‘complete’ went up, so won’t count officially in results) 

 

Haydock

3.35 –

Four Dragons (all hncps + micro TJC) 12/1 UP

Rasheeq (micro TJC) I3 6/1 3rd 5/1

4.10 –

Calder Prince (all hncps + micro TJC) H1 I3 G3 11/4 3rd 9/4 

My Amigo (micro runs) G3 12/1 UP

5.20 – Star of Rory (3yo+, micro TJC/runs) ES  9/1 2nd 5/1 

 

Muss

4.30 – Pelice (2YO) 11/2 UP

5.05 – Oriental Lilly (micro runs) ES I3 9/1 3rd 16/1 

6.05 – Ellaal (micro dist) …. G1 8/1 (late addition after ‘complete’ went up, so won’t count officially in results) 

7.05 –

Canny Style (all hncps) H1 I3 G1 11/4

Stoneham (micro dist) 10/1

7.35 – Brendan (micro runs) ES  9/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/67,24p, +1.9) (Jumps: 9/64, +23.5) (total: 17/131, +25.6)

 

3.35 Haydock – Rasheeq – 1 point win  5/1 (gen)  3rd 5/1

Another nearly effort, another place for me,- why they haven’t just blasted to the front there I have no idea,in this ground, hard to pick up from back…tanked through it, if they had been up there who knows. Stayed on well as he was bound to do over that trip. Front two up there the whole way. Damn. 

Well the money seems to be coming for this one as I write, which hopefully is a good sign. While he is 0/13 on the turf,there have been numerous credible efforts this season in much better races than this. While he isn’t on the fully unexposed end of the scale, he is at least doing a couple of things different… he drops from C2 to C4 here, which is a big drop, and from 6f to 5f. The last day at Ripon he led them until about the 1f pole. That was a change of tactics, having been held up , staying on, and never quite getting there in his races. I don’t know what they will do here but i hope they continue with those tactics.. he is drawn low and I hope RR boots him out, bags the far side rail, and keeps going. His better runs have also come on soft and that ability to stay further than 5f should help- you’d think it could be slow motion stuff at Haydock today, soft as I write and still raining. It could be that he’s now coming out of his ‘form cycle’ but he ran well for long enough the last day. 5s is just on the border I think, but hopefully he runs his race. He looked interesting when flicking through.

Four Dragons is unexposed, soft is a real unknown and unlike yesterday’s winner doesn’t arrive here on the back of a good run,but will come on for it no doubt. They have a similar profile. There are questions, but I may will have a saver just in case. Nothing surprises you with these connections at Haydock, and if you had just put X on all TD/RK runners here this year you’d have done rather well I think.

Star of Rory is worth some support and is an ES. I think he has been a bit disappointing and they reach for the visor here.(doing something different at least) He has been keen in the past and I have a niggle that this may light him up and he could do too much. But it could bring the best out of him. He has run well here in similar conditions but needs to improve from that mediocre run the last day. He does run in an open handicap here though and has much less weight on his back. He still has stamina to prove also, having had a handful of attempts. Were there a distance/class move I may be more bullish, but with any luck he runs his race.

At Musselburgh… I will just mention Oriental Lilly.. I am not one for EW backing generally, but she is probably a decent EW wager… I only say that as she needs plenty of luck, being a hold up horse over 5f. There is loads of pace on paper in this, which increased her chance. She a) needs them all to fall in a hole b) will need the gaps to appear at the right time. It may just all happen a bit too quick but she will be staying on at the end, and may get up, placing at worst with any luck.

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Recap on yesterday…

Hmm. One of those nearly/annoying days, esp in terms of decision making. I do hate multiple qualifier races when you can make a case for all! And I am really just annoyed I did not ‘tip’ the Dascombe winner, but hopefully some of you read the notes and may have backed the lot. The positives… well he ticked that profile from the video…he was unexposed and stepping up in trip (doing something diff), second run back after a break,(prob aimed to be spot on at their fav track,other than Chester) and every chance he may have developed since his nursery days. Class and Ground were unknowns, and that’s why you want a decent price. 7s was fine, drifted to 9s, held on well. You could make some sort of case for all of them I thought, so sat firmly on the fence. I’m still picking the splinters out. If Parole had won i would be having the same conversation! Similar profile,if not tad more exposed. Albeit he was covered by ES. Ran well in third. My Opus Dei whip hasn’t quite come out on that one, nearly…

My mood wasn’t helped by the McCain horse doing very little- he could still be running, to use another worn out phrase 🙂 But the run of Master of Finance really annoyed me… he is a thinker, and I don’t think it is a coincidence that the few times he has won, he has often made all, or hit the front a long way out- and hence not having to battle/fight past horses. I was expecting him to sit in second and take it up when Beyond Temptation faded. And then who knows, he may have kept going. Hughes/MJ took a different decision and decided to creep him into it. They had plenty of horse left come the line but that’s racing for you! I have backed many winners thanks to what could be classed as ‘could do better’ rides in behind. It all evens out. They should try and make all with him one day but I would want a bigger price before backing him again I think. Moving on. You can’t dwell on losers in this game- well you can, and you should… but not for too long!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD 

5.20 Hayd – Star of Rory (any odds, 9/2< best)

6.05 Muss- Inglorious (any)

C Appleby 

4.25 Ascot – Alqamar (any, 13/2< best) 2nd 11/8>10/11

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

This WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK>>>>

Well I am off down to Oxford for a reunion/get together with my old Uni housemates. They are a great crowd and it should be good fun. You won’t notice much difference on here, I go Friday evening so Saturday’s post should be fine. Sunday’s post may be up in the morning, and depending on when I get back Sunday, so may Monday’s. I’ll get that up asap if that is the case. 

Of more interest….

Irish Champions Weekend... Well I couldn’t find it as a ‘festival’ in HRB so haven’t done any trainer research. But there are two decent handicaps with trends for both the Sat and the Sunday, and I aim to get those pointers posted up on Friday…likely the Free post.

Members Only.. I have done a bit of digging for the Listowel Festival that starts on Sunday. We have the Kerry National to look forward to later in the week, but there are a couple of trainer pointers of interest. I will get those up Friday.

St Leger meeting… I will have a dig and see if there are any stats for that also, that will be next week.

As always those notes will be to use as you please, and I will endeavour to post any ‘qualifiers’. It never stops in this game…

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Tom Dascombes handicappers at Haydock is the gift that keeps on giving,but I can’t bring myself to taking 11/4 on Calder Prince so its going in my 50c patent in the hope of a double or maybe a clean sweep

    gearoid180468 07/09/17 8:39 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    couple to add

    A 5.30 – Outer Space (3yo+)

    M 6.05 – Ellaal (micro dist)

    MIke

    titus_a_duxass 08/09/17 9:39 AM Reply


    • oh bollocks. Well the complete sign is up now, so I can’t count those, but will add in above. Cheers.

      Josh 08/09/17 9:41 AM Reply


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