Free Daily Post: 08/09/17 (complete)

Ah the curse of posting some thoughts from the Members’ Club struck again. One day I will give you a decent priced winner or five, promise.

Moving on…

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

2.40 Ascot – Main Street (any odds)

3.50 Ascot – Uptown Funk (any odds)

Fanshawe/Kempton

8.20 – Sam Missile (any odds)

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Below are today’s qualifiers from the Members’ System Test Zone, where we track various angles i’ve researched. The CD Jockeys are showing good profits, and the Appleby angles are solid, on paper at least. Do with those as you please, using as starting points for further research perhaps…

Jockey CD 

5.20 Hayd – Star of Rory (any odds, 9/2< best)

6.05 Muss- Inglorious (any)

C Appleby 

4.25 Ascot – Alqamar (any, 13/2< best)

 

**

That is all for today. I’ll get some stats/trends/pointers for this weekend’s big races posted asap.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • Warning of scam tipsters send you a text with the name of a horse it wins then they want £100 at odds for the next text.
    Another one on this possible scam is Jim Ward after the free winner he then wanted £100 then £50 then £20 to odds.
    10 runner race 1 different horse to 100 different people,100 have the winner say at 10/1 by gum fantastic tipster only need 50 mugs at £100 and the cycle goes on.
    The scammer has your phone number so why does he not contact you with his fantastic tips because like Jim Ward there is no trace of him on the internet.
    I hope this is of help and please do not respond to these texts if it sounds to good then there is a catch.
    All the best
    Colin

    colin leafe 07/09/17 9:10 PM Reply


    • I would not worry too much as they cannot make anyone pay anything. We live in an environment of daily scam emails and texts etc and it wont stop anytime soon.

      martin colwell 07/09/17 11:05 PM Reply


    • These are a scourge and you have to make 100% sure that they are not charging you. All regulated horse racing emails come via licence with PhonePayPlus and reputable sms providers have to register and licence with them. Although these scammers are highly unlikely to have done that there is a way to report and check the numbers via PhonePayPlus – go to http://psauthority.org.uk/for-consumers/making-an-enquiry/submit-an-online-enquiry and get the number of the scammer checked out.

      Once you have done this you can register a complaint via this site http://psauthority.org.uk/for-consumers/contact-us-for-consumers

      You should always then report the number to YOUR PHONE provider. Some can and will block them, but by reporting it, you can prevent any back door charges.

      Whilst with reputable sms providers it is possible to text back STOP with these scammers that may actually (a) incur a charge and (b) just encourage them and don’t be enticed in to responding with expletives – you will just get expletives back x 10 and may be have to pay for them.

      Somehow your number has been passed on by unscrupulous data sharing companies who prey on things like gambling to lure more people in.

      IF you can find out where the scammer is based you are perfectly entitled to report it to their local Trading Standards and/or the local Police. A lot originate from horse racing scam hotspots and in my experience the most likely places are Brighton/Shoreham; Truro and Newmarket.

      Ian SP2A 08/09/17 6:58 AM Reply


      • Thanks Ian for your explanation very well put,only wanted to make aware to anyone who is not streetwise how these people work

        colin leafe 08/09/17 9:53 AM Reply


  • Decent day of racing tomorrow. Ninjago looks like a solid bet in the 17:30 at Ascot. He is only 2lbs higher than his win LTO and still extremely well treated on old form. Looks to have a decent draw with most of the pace drawn low. Should be able to track the pace. Won a listed race over course and distance as a 3yr old so we know he handles the track. He won’t mind the rain and is one of only 2 runners who have won on soft. Its interesting that Tudhope take the ride over the O’Meara runner. He has only had the one ride for Midgley this year resulting in a win just over a week ago. Danny is arguably the hottest jockey at the moment with a fine 11/37, 20p +23.7 record over the past 2 weeks.

    Moving over to Musselburgh, Thomas Cranmer looks a really good bet in the 18:35. Has won 2 of 3 races at the track this year. After stepping up in class he is now 4lbs lower than the last of his wins. That also happened to be the last time he was ridden by Joe Fanning. Considering the number of Johnston runners tomorrow it eye-catching that he heads up here where both him and Johnston have a brilliant record (15/54, 26p together in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years) and his only other runner for the boss happens to be an un-raced 2 yr old. The other major plus here is there doesn’t seem to be any other front runners so he should be able to get his own way upfront. He gets 4lbs weight for age on the field and even has his ideal ground. Looks a very good bet.

    Moving over to Haydock and Englishman looks a good bet in the 15:00. Has been running well in better races including a close 4th in a class 2 worth 47k and drops down into a class 4 worth less than 6k here (1/3, 2p). He likes the track with a 1st and 4th from 2 big field handicaps over course and distance. He is best on soft ground which he gets here. On top of that he gets the services of Richard Kingscote who arguably rides this track better than anyone. There is very little pace here so I can see Kingscote taking advantage of that and leading from the front. Trainer could be in slightly better form but he has had a couple of 3rd recently. In the 16:10 I like the chances of Muntadab. He is now 5lbs lower than his neck 2nd in a class 2 at York which also happened to be the last time he ran on his preferred soft ground. Gets a plum draw in 2 and should be able to get out ahead of the only other front runner Calder Prince drawn in 6. He is 2/4 over 7f on the flat and 1/4, 2p going left handed. Hamilton is the trainer’s go to jockey. Hopefully all 8 stand their ground. Finally I want a bet on Star of Rory in the finale. Is both an Elite Squad qualifier and one over the course and distance jockey/track system. Was close 2nd to Frankuus at this meeting last year as a 2 yr old and wasn’t disgraced in a pretty hot race at the track earlier this year on ground which wasn’t ideal. Has dropped to a very nice mark. Haydock wonder team Dascombe and Kingscote are a solid 4/17, 7p with 3yr olds with first time head gear at the track. At 10s he looked like a solid bet.

    Nick Mazur 07/09/17 10:57 PM Reply


    • Nice easy win with Muntadab and a close 2nd with Star of Rory but Kingscote’s ride on Englishman left a bitter taste in the mouth considering we know he rides Haydock well so that wasn’t incompetence on his part.

      Nick Mazur 08/09/17 7:36 PM Reply


      • Well done Nick… you read that Muntadab race/performance spot on.

        Josh 08/09/17 9:00 PM Reply


  • As for your Jumps Stats Pack, Josh, I like the introduction of the Elite Squad and think you should integrate this into the jumps.

    It’s very tiring (partly due to there being so many flat meetings) to go through every single qualifier that might only be for a weak system/small sample size, so the Elite Squad really helps make the whole process more efficient.

    Another thing, what time scale are you basing your stats on? I’d hope it’s 2-3 years

    aallen 08/09/17 1:03 AM Reply


    • Hi.. oh yep there will be an Elite Squad for winter jumps, easy to pull out the ‘best of/most reliable’ stats based on the criteria…and many may just use those as main focus… yep I had forgotten how busy the flat gets, madnees… 6/7 meetings etc. But at least with advised strategies you can home straight in on those,as starting points if necessary. And just accept you miss the odd winner.
      Yep there is a reason why it is never advised to ‘back all’ – as some of them cannot be looked at as micro systems as samples small, but just gives options, if you then have time to look at race/horse etc etc. And if not, you don’t.

      Stats packs have always been based on same time frame, 3 full calendar years + the current year. So, that will be 2014/15/16, 2017 to date.

      Josh

      Josh 08/09/17 8:08 AM Reply


      • Good stuff, looking forward to it!

        aallen 08/09/17 11:03 AM Reply


  • Great Colaci looks a bet in the 4:35 Newcastle for what it’s worth; I read once about course form being a big help at Newcastle and this one is 2/4 here, 2/2 over CD. The jock is in form too which always helps. On the Geegeez ‘instant expert’ tab he is the only horse with any green whatsoever, and in fact he has green across the board, meaning conditions today suit him more than any other horse in the race. Sometimes it’s best not to overthink those ones. He’s clearly a better horse on the AW and he won over 7f at Musselburgh in June off just 1lb higher. Looks a fantastic price and a great opportunity for another win.

    thisisjonnoo 08/09/17 11:00 AM Reply


    • blimey, yep he does jump out on the old instant expert,and yep sometimes it can be that simple… provided he just isn’t out of form the return here can spark him back to life..and yarmouth is a funny old track, could have had a bad trip down and all sorts, GS prob not ideal race before that. Got two front runners near him to track, can see why you are tempted at 8/1, that does look a few points too big. Plenty of 3 yos in here but none of them look to have done much. I’ve just had a nibble, so apologies… I curse most things on ‘the sand’!! GL

      Josh 08/09/17 11:09 AM Reply


  • I dont like much today. I have had a bet on Four Dragons at 10/1 in the 3.35HP for the Dascombe/Kinscote micro. I have had a stab at 40/1 on L’Attesa in the 6.25 KIL, who is expected to put in a better show today than before.

    Some football bets for the weekend – Birmingham away, with their second new team of the season, at 7/2; Charlton at home at 11/10 and Leyton Orient away at 2/1+.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 08/09/17 12:45 PM Reply


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