Members Daily Post: 05/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Goodwood

3.50 –

Aurora Gray (all hncps) 14 H1 I3 G3 5/2 2nd 

Mister Manduro (all hncps) I1 G3 5/1 UP

4.25- Love Oasis (all hncps) H3 I3 5/1 UP 7/1

 

Hamilton

2.25 – Trinity Star (3yo+) I1 

3.35 – Reflation (micro going + age) I3 14/1 UP 

4.10 –

Souls In The Wind (3yo+) 11/2 WON 11/2>12/1 

Sir Domino  (micro going + age) I3 14/1 UP 20/1 

5.20 – Swiss Lait (4yo+, + micro age + going) I3 33/1

5.55 – Spes Nostra (4yo+, + micro class) I1  25/1

 

JUMPS

Hexham 

4.35 –

Civil Unrest (all hncps + hncp chase) H3 I3 G3 5/1

Quick Brew (micro distance) H3 5/1 UP

My Idea (micro distance) 16/1 WON 16/1>7/1 (10p R4  14/1>7/1 )

5.10 – Mrs Grass (hncp hurdle) ES I3  14/1 UP 14/1 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 27/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/66,24p, +2.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 17/128, +28.6)

 

4.10  Ham- Sir Domino – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP 20/1…

Ah damn. No complaints there.. but why couldn’t Souls In The Wind have been 12/1 this morning! Damn. What a drift. Hope you had a go as advised…well, I said I was having a saver on… 12s was just ridiculous and a bit better than the 5s this morning. I won’t complain with that result. The market told the story for the ‘tip’ but didn’t have a clue on the winner! 

Hmmm. It feels like one of those days. There weren’t any horses in the really unexposed/doing something different camp and in truth not much jumped out at me and slapped me around the face. But this one did catch the eye LTO when also a qualifier here. He ran well to a point over 5f and showed more than he had done in quite a while. Given both of his wins have been over 6f and in soft, I thought 14s may be worth a roll of the dice. So, he is moving back up in trip, which is a positive. He seemed to respond to the visor the last day but it is removed again here. Maybe they thought he did too much too early. In 2016 he won a C4 here off 70 and he now races off 52. Those wins for a different trainer. Holmes has generally struggled this season and his yard has been a bit out of form. I don’t know if there have been issues but he will bounce back at some point. You either wait for more signs of life before jumping in, or you ensure you at least get a decent price on his runners. The horse is 1/5,3p over CD in handicaps, 1/4,2p returning 8-15 days rest pattern. There is something to cling onto there. Hopefully they race him on the pace again and he just keeps going. He may not find much and go backwards again and while this wouldn’t be the most confident of ‘tips’ I have ever put up here, i’ll take a stab. You can make some sort of case…

As you can for Souls In The Wind in this. WON 12/1  I will have a saver on, but she isn’t 14s. She won a maiden here a few starts back over 6f in soft. She was given a mark of 80 and has been running in C4s. In three runs she has dropped 13lb and now drops back into a C6. She raced prominently in that maiden but has been held up since. Interesting. I wonder if more forceful tactics may return. The draw may be far from ideal, we shall see. If she flies the start she could get out and across.

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I could have gone the easy route with Aurora Gray but at 5/2 I just couldn’t. There is still a niggle there over 16f on turf ‘if’ this turns tactical. She has looked like a thorough stayer but this is a weaker race than the last day and she should be thereabouts.

I found it of some note that Fanning rides at Hamilton today when all of Johnston’s runners are at Goodwood. So, that caught the eye. It will be interesting how he goes. It is wet at Hamilton and still raining I think. If it turned Heavy I may have to throw some change at Reflation who is 2/2 on the surface. He looks woefully out of form but like Sir Domino that could be linked to the general yard form. But, that would be tentative. That would be some turnaround just on a going change.

 

Mrs Grass… well no reason not to back this ES qualifier to my eyes. Yes she hardly wins but both of her successes have come here. There is every chance she needed the run LTO. She is well handicapped again and will try and burn these off from the front. It should be exciting to watch, at least until 1-2f from home!

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

IMPORTANT >>>

‘Runs This Season ‘ >>> I have had confirmation back from Chris over at HorseRaceBase… these stats refer to runs that season IN SAID CODE.  So, where I may have a stat like with McCain at Sedgfield, that was the correct interpretation… runs this Jumps Season. The All-weather run that horse had was irrelevant to those stats. There are not many that switch between codes etc, esp Jumps, but that was important to clarify.

Flat/All-Weather… runs in these codes count as one, when run during the turf Flat Season. So, a run at Wolvs, and two on the turf, if run during that flat season, would be ‘three’ runs for example. Over the winter All-Weather, it is only Winter runs that count. But that doesn’t concern us really, as bar the odd report that you can use yourself, I have no intention of running a Winter ‘AW’ ‘service’ /stats picks as such. I hope that all makes sense.

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VIDEO : …a more ‘educational’ one I suppose with a look at Romanor and my first proper look at my ‘doing something different’ theory. Most of you will have plenty of this in your mind already but you may or may not enjoy my little chat. Oh and I do my periodical ‘Jamie Spencer is a great jockey’ spiel (twice!) as well as moaning about a couple of things…so, there is the entertainment factor also! 🙂 it’s long enough but get your notebook at the ready. It will fly by 🙂 …

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Evening Josh,

    Thanks for the video. Enjoyable as usual. Personally I think you made the right call today. Of the two Redicean was the better bet. It doesn’t really matter which one of them won. You said a few days ago that you would aim to stick to a single bet of the day which I thought was a good plan since I think you lost your way a little when you had 4+ BoD. (It’s human nature and I am just as guilty of this no matter how much I try and tighten things up). You will miss winners but long term I am confident you’re good enough at this game that the profits will increase. Just my two cents mate.

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 04/09/17 11:36 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, thanks… yep, I mean I am not beating myself up about it too much… it was close to a coin toss I suppose but then it is easier for thoughts to be clarified after the result! No problem with the main pick, and he ran well enough. But could easily have come down on the other one. But useful to keep reminding myself as much as anything about that certain approach you can take.

      Agree about your point re number of Bod. I will be sticking to 1, occasionally 2 I suspect but never more than that.

      It’s just about a portfolio approach I suppose, and trying to give everyone,inc myself, a variety of options, from the systematic to the more subjective.

      Josh

      Josh 05/09/17 9:51 AM Reply


  • Thanks for the video Josh. It was a good watch and I will try to watch it again if I get time. I agree Jamie Spencer is a good jockey when he is up for it and does well coming from behind. I thought that the races on Monday were run to suit him but that is not his fault. As a member for a while I think I have a good idea of how you operate. I too am not a form student and look for reasons why a horse can win a race at a price. If it was all about form the game would have been cracked by now.

    martin colwell 05/09/17 11:17 AM Reply


    • Thanks Martin, glad you enjoyed it. Yep most jockeys are marmite… but generally you know what you are going to get with him and there is method to his madness, which he has explained before. He is very good at judging pace generally, and from the front. I like him, 7/8 times out of 10 I think he gives a horse every chance of showing their best, while messing it up every now and then. But that’s why you want a price etc.

      That unexposed/doing something different mindset approach has developed in recent months/the last year I think. Previously i would look more towards the been there and done it horses- which may have been linked to my obsession with 3m+ handicap chasers, where some experience/previous solid form can be more important. But certainly on the flat I think it is a good place to start/focus, if you wish to add subjective thoughts to any starting points etc.

      Josh

      Josh 05/09/17 3:58 PM Reply


  • Re Wetherby races.

    Train from Lime St to York. Bus opposite York station to Wetherby racecourse. Don’t know how long train journey is but bus to races about 30-35 mins.

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 05/09/17 11:54 AM Reply


    • Is it fancy dress so that Josh can wear his green soldier outfit?

      martin colwell 05/09/17 3:53 PM Reply


      • I don’t wish to wear that again for a while Martin haha, it was very hot and sticky. 🙂

        Josh 05/09/17 3:55 PM Reply


  • Good day to you Josh,

    I too enjoyed the video this morning with a cup of tea. You did make me laugh when you had a rant about JS being a top jockey/horseman as I totally agree with you, I’ve had many a heated discussion about that. People just talk through their losing pockets and are totally blind to all the positives he brings to the race track. Also agree with what Nick said too.

    Had a look at the Kempton card and only one really stands out for me is

    19:20 Clowance One 5/2
    He’s top of my all weather ratings, he’s G1, H1 and all green across the board for win and place for the Instant Expert.
    I’ve put him in a fun ew double with 20:20 Siege of Boston who I think does have a good chance today, the only neg with SOB is he has not raced on stand-slow.

    GL for today

    Gavin

    Gavin 05/09/17 12:28 PM Reply


  • Well Josh,
    Missed the drift on Souls but did get 14s on My Idea!!
    #lovethejumps
    Cheers!
    Doug

    dougandnicky 05/09/17 4:42 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Doug.. I can’t say I had a penny on any of them in that Hexham race, so there we go! I think we can both be happy enough then with those last few minutes of racing! Good picking… and that is another winner for the 10/1-25/1 strategy, much like Vaughan’s. As yet I haven’t got into the habit of backing those systematically, rather use as starting point. Hmmm!

      Josh 05/09/17 4:46 PM Reply


    • Well done josh.
      Thankfully I haven’t taken enough off skybet YET for them to stop BOG so I got 12s.
      I got 11s BOG also on my idea.
      happy days.
      Pappa johns tonight…..

      warren bottomely 05/09/17 4:49 PM Reply


  • josh still fairly new to your site could you tell the reason souls in the wind qualifes to be a bet as he has nothing next to his name on your list

    paul 05/09/17 5:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul , she didn’t qualify on any of the strategies.. just mentioned in section 2 under bet of the day / the notes that followed. They are subjective and there to use/ignore as you see fit. Was put off by price this morning, 11/2, 5/1 didn’t seem overly generous given form coming into it but as per brief notes above there were a few reasons why she may revive. Josh

      Josh 05/09/17 5:17 PM Reply


  • thanks josh ya it did have a few things in its favour souls in the wind just wondered how it made the list but nyou have answered the question in the best way poss because it won

    paul 05/09/17 5:25 PM Reply


    • What list are you referring to? (sorry, I get agitated if members don’t understand the content as that responsibility rests firmly at my door…)

      The list in section 1 are all qualifiers against the stats packs… as you correctly noted she DID NOT qualify against any of the advised strategies… (which build on the all qualifiers list against the trainer stats) so if you just follow a few of those advised strategies, then you wouldn’t have backed her. Backing all flat quals in section 1 is not advised, and would lose you a fair chunk.

      As with every qualifier in section 1, I look through and see if I can pick out my best bet of the day, and also write any notes, my own views, on any of the other runners.

      Hope that makes sense, plenty of members won’t have backed her. I didn’t back My Idea at a big price, Doug and Warren did. That’s how it goes with this approach, esp those that win outside of any strategies you follow systematically.

      Josh

      Josh 05/09/17 5:30 PM Reply


      • For Me personally historically Ive been a short odds backer and it’s hard to make a profit let alone have any fun. It’s been tough learning. At the start when I was looking at the qualifiers I would automatically look at the shorter price alternatives and then dismissing them. Then huge groans followed by kicking myself as result don’t go in my favour.
        You just have to just go with it and have faith.
        And that faith has paid off.
        I now everyday back the qualifiers that fall into the flat and jump advised steatagies everyday. Then I will have look at what is left and see if anything catches the eye. Today was a good day tomorrow may not be. But the betting balance says keep the faith.
        Thank you Josh for changing my perspective and my approach. 12s are so much more satisfying and fun than evens.

        Warren bottomley 05/09/17 6:18 PM Reply


        • Thanks Warren, reading comments like that makes it all worthwhile… I may copy/paste and plaster that everywhere haha. (i hope you don’t mind! 🙂 ) It took me a while to change my own mindset, to be happy with missed losers, to focus on bigger priced horses for the reasons you touch on, and to just be happy with steady progress over time. Profit can tend to come in chunks, before a lull. You can’t beat cheering home decent priced winners, it does make the game that more entertaining. So far so good, i’ll keep chipping away and helping add to the bottom line with any luck.
          Josh

          Josh 05/09/17 6:30 PM Reply


          • cut, paste, edit as you please if it helps because the approach has certainly helped me.

            warren bottomley 06/09/17 12:45 AM Reply


  • sorry if i completed that last comment i understand what you mean . it was nice to see n.t.d have his first winner of sept today that must enthuse you lots

    paul 05/09/17 5:35 PM Reply


    • Super. Yep, a rare flat winner for him.. but a good sign that the yard looks to be in decent form. With any luck a good few weeks ahead. It does keep niggling at me that he is due a shocker one year, but fingers crossed he carries on!

      Josh 05/09/17 5:44 PM Reply


  • I have to say that I picked something out of Josh’s video this morning. When you beat the market and back a 7/1 winner at 14/1 like My Idea it is 1) very satisfying and 2) enables you to be wrong so much more often. I love the systematic logical way of punting and I particularly think the doing something different angle is superb! Roll on the jumps!

    One other thing Josh, Twisters has had his first winner in Sept! On the flat! Great ride from Liam Keniry today!!!

    Doug

    dougandnicky 05/09/17 7:14 PM Reply


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