Free Daily Post: 05/09/17 (complete)

VIDEO: Is The Horse Doing Something Different? – The question that could change your punting forever…

Hmmm.. well that is a bit grand and possibly far fetched but I have recorded a video with a close look back at a 7/1 winner in the Members’ Club on Monday. I use this horse as an example and the foundation for discussing a certain approach to betting. It could give you structure moving forwards. With any luck it helps you ponder your own approach to betting. And if you take away one positive from it that would make it worthwhile.

You can watch it in chunks. I’d make a cup of tea, grab a notebook and settle down. Just asking this one questions ‘could’ transform your betting…

 

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No system bets etc.

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Members’ Content… 

A couple of qualifiers from two of the leading strategies in the Members’ post… one ‘treble rated’ from the Flat, and one ‘Elite Squad’ from the Jumps (these have been on fire in recent days, with any luck we may add to the haul today, but we shall see..it is moderate fare…)

 

FLAT 

Goodwood

3.50 – Aurora Gray (all hncps) 14 H1 I3 G3 5/2 2nd 

 

JUMPS

Hexham 

5.10 – Mrs Grass (hncp hurdle) ES I3  14/1 UP 

 

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GL with any bets,

Josh

p.s do post any thoughts/comments/questions etc on the video. They’re always gratefully received, even the negative ones (provided they are polite 🙂 )

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Excellent stuff, Josh.

    NICK BRYANT 04/09/17 9:02 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nick, glad you enjoyed it.

      Josh 04/09/17 9:49 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    For 2 years i put up Golf Bets for a well known tipping line and both years made a profit last year 74 points from only 2 players in a tournament,i decided to stop at the end of June this year,again in profit to the tune of 28 points.
    I will put up the players names each week if Josh is ok with this.
    There will be long losing runs so a bank is needed and there is no guarantee that i will win.
    Omega European Masters
    Bernd Wiesberger 25/1 1/4 6 SB BW
    Matthew Fitzpatrick 30/1 1/4 6 SB 28/1 1/4 5 BV BF 365
    Good Luck
    Colin
    PS No player has defended this title since 1977/78 so this rules out Alex Noren Famous last words.

    colin leafe 05/09/17 8:58 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,

      All such comments welcome in these parts. I do like a bit of variety! much appreciated…
      The odd sentence on why you like them would be useful, well for me anyway! I have no idea about Golf…

      GL
      Josh

      Josh 05/09/17 9:16 AM Reply


    • Thanks Colin. One of my sports is Golf. I tend to play Saturday evening before the final rounds. I am also happy to post but I dont think there is much viewing of the site at those times. I too would be interested in a brief write up on the players. It seems to me now that the European Tour is competitive, whereas the USPGA is being dominated by 3 or 4 stellar players at present ( Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, DJ and to a lesser extent Matsuyama and Rahm).

      martin colwell 05/09/17 9:24 AM Reply


    • Hi All
      Did not put the stake down 1point each way on both.

      I stopped putting my bets on the line because of the time factor and stress,next week i will try and put a couple of lines behind my reasons.
      I will put the bets on Tuesday mornings before many of the tipsters including Racing Post announce there’s so you have the best chance to take a price.
      Colin

      colin leafe 05/09/17 9:53 AM Reply


      • Hi Colin
        I have played golf for over 50 years, still do twice a week and I love betting small stakes mainly but over all the years I never found golf and betting really go together as a betting game. Just my opinion of course. Why, well you generally start with a field of 150 (in horse racing terms that’s 4 x Grand National fields in one go. Now we all know how difficult it is to find winners of that race). Then after a 1/4 of the race (1 day) you are left with 10 or 20 possible winners, to my mind, this is when you should start to put your money down, NARROW in the FIELD, yes the price has dropped but the chance of winning has increased by 80 to 90%. Thats when I go in and have had more success and less losing runs. I am pleased that you have made money on golf betting but I think I will stick with horses and this site. Josh and the guys on it are amazing.

        Mike

        mickeydee 05/09/17 10:32 AM Reply


    • thanks for the golf tips. I do like a little dabble every now and again.
      you can get some really good value with golf betting

      warren bottomley 05/09/17 2:22 PM Reply


    • Great video Josh. Thanks for doing that. Much appreciated. Good luck with the golf tips Colin. I would really enjoy a weekly golf punt especially from someone who clearly has done well at it in the past. Having worked for the European Tour for 20 years in a former life, i can tell you that most people I came across in my time there (including players) were useless at predicting winners each week. GL cheers Ben

      921389 05/09/17 6:04 PM Reply


    • Thanks for Colin!

      Neil 10/09/17 9:32 PM Reply


  • Really good video Josh, you highlight three necessary attributes for this game (amongst others) in fuzzy logic, mindset and curiosity. All important factors to most approaches whether its form study, trends or system building. I for one have sat talking to the screen plenty of times! It kind of helps me make sense of what I’m doing, my audience sits there and laughs at me like I’m some kind of lunatic, well he is 14, so I get your entertaining and informative self confessed ramblings! An explanation doesn’t have a time limit, the listener may have an attention span but they have a pause button too, so don’t change a thing mate, it works well. I managed it with one hit of the pause button by the way, mainly because it looked like England were trying to play football for a while. Well done for keeping it brief this time though!

    Chris Albin 05/09/17 9:54 AM Reply


    • Thanks Chris, I like those three necessary attributes.. I can struggle with brevity sometimes so may use those in future haha. I often talk to myself plenty, usually after I have made a howler, but often enough when going through a race/horse.

      entertaining and informative self confessed ramblings appears to be the style, it’s what comes naturally, and it what it is!

      Haha, I think 45 mins is the max I should ever go! I don’t think it quite feels that long but then I’m biased.

      Josh

      Josh 05/09/17 10:29 AM Reply


  • Well, that was a mini seminar, Josh, and a good teaching tool. A little evangelical about your belief system, but none the worse for it as it was comprehensive as it covered so many factors.
    One aspect I like to consider is if the genes favour the (changed) going today – as they did in this case – another tick.
    Aggravated that you chose this race as I’m a shareholder in Lester Kris, but I hope this is the start of his second coming 🙂

    Chris Rees 05/09/17 11:22 AM Reply


    • Ha cheers Chris.. ah well I try not to be too ‘evangelical’, albeit some of the general points I will stand by… and that was on one specific way of looking at racing, quite focused in terms of the starting point/unexposed idea as starting point/foundation.

      For example that is a completely different approach to Gary Priestley say, who generally looks at been there and done it horses, that may be about to return to form/repeat an old performance. neither is right or wrong, clearly.

      And I suppose if I don’t fundamentally believe what I say, I can’t expect anyone else to… although that doesn’t mean I am inflexible. My mind/views can and do change every now and then! But I think that general approach is a good place to start.

      Ah, well sorry! He did you proud, and his turn doesn’t look far away.

      Josh 05/09/17 11:33 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh. Nice video. Thanks. Not watched all of it, but will do later. Trainer stats as a way in is different / interesting. I usually focus on the horse, which can be very time consuming. In a future video it would be interesting to pick two or three ‘doing something different’ cases and do a pre- and post-race analysis of the cases (perhaps as two videos). Anyway, good stuff and thanks again for sharing. Very interesting. Damian

    Damian Maye 05/09/17 1:32 PM Reply


    • Hi Damian,
      Thanks for your comment. Yep that is a good idea. I do record the odd pre race video in the Members’ Club, looking at such horses, but I should broaden that and do the odd one for general consumption. Will add it to the list. Cheers.

      Josh 05/09/17 2:30 PM Reply


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