Members Daily Post: 04/09/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Windsor 

2.50 – Romanor (all hncps) 14 I3 7/1 WON 7/1>7/2 

3.20 – Madame Bounty (all hncps) 14 5/1

 

Brighton

4.00- Suni Dancer (3yo+, + micro TJC) ES I1 

4.30- De Vegas Kid (3yo+, micro TJC) ES I3 G1 4/1 2nd 9/4 

5.00-

Evanescent (3yo+) 8/1

Chicago Start (3yo+, + micro age) ES 16/1

 

Ripon

3.10 – Redicean (micro age) ES 6/1 3rd 10/3 

3.40 –

Tarboosh (3yo+) 14 H3 6/1 WON 6/1>9/2 

Silvanus (3yo+) 14 14/1 UP

Olivia Fallow (3yo+) 14 I3 14/1 UP

Aleef (micro age) ES H1 I3 G1 4/1 UP 3/1 

4.10 – Mistime (3yo+) 18/1 UP 8/1

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 27/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>> |NTD Sept/Oct: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 7/65,23p, +3.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 17/127, +29.6)

3.10 Ripon – Redicean – 1 point win – 11/2 (general) 3rd 10/3..

Ah well I hope you had a bit on Romanor as per notes below to make up for that one. I’ve clearly picked the wrong unexposed/doing something different horse, but was swayed by fact the ‘tip’ had already shown something. Rediciean has run ok, in a race won by SDS effectively dictating from the front…this one is looking a bit tripless also!…  Romanor *(now no longer tripless)… well Spencer took over- and no coincidence that a horse that’s seemingly struggled to settle/finish off races, wins first time when he is doing the steering- he is a master at settling horses and getting them to finish off their races..sometimes he leaves it too late, most of time he judges it to perfection for me. The horse was lightly raced, moving back up in trip, tongue tie off, hood back on (both poss excuses for LTO which didn’t put enough weight on as reason) and he dropped into C5 for first time. And Walker was in form. So, he did tick all the ‘tipping’ boxes really, at 7s. But I backed both and hope you may have done…just whether I should have ‘tipped’ both but that is easy to say after the event! 

 

Well if I had a green plastic gun to my head and was told I could only back one horse today, at the prices, this one would be it. He is 1/7,2p in his career and there could/should be more to come at some point, but at the same time he has shown ability already. This is his third start for O’Meara and he drops in trip and class here – yep, put that broken record on as you’ve guessed it, he’s doing a couple of things different, esp from his last run. For his old trainer he won over 10f, staying on strongly. Two starts ago he did the same at Donny over 10f, without ever looking like getting there. But it was a good run. Those performances suggest he is well worth a go at 12f and he could relish it. He did try it once at Salisbury before joing O’Meara but that was a C3, and was on GS which could have been an excuse. Well worth another crack.  The last day he ran over 14f in a C2 at York. He didn’t run too badly, making an effort 3f or so out before hitting trouble a couple of times. The trip may have been too far, and/or the race too deep. But he is back in a C4 here, and drops down two furlongs. I would hope he could go close here and 11/2 felt ok, and maybe a couple of points too big given his profile/connections here.

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Of the rest…

Well Romanor WON 7/1>7/2 caught the eye to a point as Spencer has been booked for the ride…the horse is an 8 race maiden who looks ‘tripless’ at the moment- they will find the key at some point. I am  not certain he wants cut, but that is a bit of an unknown, and he comes up against a few other interesting ones. But, the yard is in cracking form…and if they don’t go forward on the Dunlop horse, this race is there to be stolen from the front. Spencer made all here on another Walker horse recently, who had been held up plenty… I wonder if he may try the same. At 7s I may have a small nibble as there is something there niggling at me. Oh and he is a Jockey CD test qual below

The 3.40- well 4 in that so who knows what will happen. If Aleef is fit, and behaves himself this time, he is the only pace angle in this and could see them all off from the front. And if he doesn’t, the rest generally take it in turns so who knows!

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A decent winner for the Jumps Strategy #1 as per link in Key above…and the first example of ‘the drifter’ – he didn’t qualify on morning prices but was sent off BFSP 11.00+, and qualified that way. Remember this minimum BFSP price can be set at a time that suits you, no need to monitor prices. If he didn’t drift he wouldn’t have qualified and the bet would not have been placed.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

2.50 Wind – Romanor (any) WON 7/1

4.00 Bright – Harlequin Rock (any, 9/1< best)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I thought we looked quite good… (that’s me in green on the right…)

 

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Blessed To Empress… (hmm..not sure what to make of that…work to do) 

She runs in the 3.00 Brighton and it is a bit of a fact finding mission still. There look to be some very smart/interesting ones in this but hopefully she runs her race and could even make all for a time on my reading of the pace map. Below I have repeated the review from her last run, which I found fascinating- esp Kirby’s feedback. She does seem a bit of a thinker and with any luck this track makes her do exactly that. She may hate if of course but only one way to find out…

Review from her last race… for interest…

Pre race, Blessed does have her own ideas about the game, the hood Amy uses beforehand certainly helps her keep calmer and from wasting extra energy, However, it was clear Blessed was fresh, well and ready to race after her recent break.

Her stalls entry went well, Adam was well briefed beforehand to expect Blessed to have a little dance and sit back in the stalls after entry. The fact we had a few seconds in the stalls helped her to not miss the break. Despite Adam giving her a tap around 2 1/2 furlongs out, things got exciting about a 1f out and she came back on the bridle pretty strongly for a second or 2, it looked like we could be involved in the finish until a lack of a recent run took its toll.

Adam provided some decent feedback. He was very impressed with Blessed’s attitude, he said a lot of horses probably would have dropped away quickly after her early excursions in the race. Blessed was gassy and fresh in the early stages, which was no surprise given her recent break. Mr Kirby mentioned having the open space to the left of her, sets her off a bit too much. He was really keen for us to get her racing around a bend, as that should take the edge of her and give Blessed something to concentrate her mind on a little more, whilst letting her race prominently and do her own thing.

As for trip at this stage, he thought 5-6f should both be ok when we get ideal conditions of a bend. The winner Shovel It On stays further and had a very high knee action, he had won on very testing ground, so, it’s clear that race was a proper test over 6f, which was run at a good pace for the grade. It looked a competitive race beforehand, and we would still take that view now.

Amy was delighted with Blessed, I think she got pretty excited herself a furlong out. She was happy that Blessed has shown us something like the level of form she showed us on debut, which is actually not always the case with 2-year-olds. She would like to keep her busy when opportunities come about and is sure she is only going to keep on improving. Blessed actually took 5 minutes longer to stop blowing out after the race than after her debut win, to suggest she is only going to come on for her efforts.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • A* for the outfits Josh. Dread to think how much green paint you needed for that ensemble 🙂

    One I like for tomorrow, One for June in the 3.00 @ Brighton. Trainer has an overall 36% s/r at the track. 21% s/r when teaming up with Cosgrave. His 2YOs are on absolute fire at the moment; 2 winners from the last 3 runners and hasn’t been out of the places in 5. Haggas seems to target Brighton at this time of year with his 2YOs, with a record of 4 winners from 9 and 6 places in Aug/Sep at Brighton. This one is also very nicely bred, on a line from Oasis Dream on the sire side and Kodiac as the Dam’s sire. Oasis Dream has a 29% win rate over C&D, Kodiac 15%. Form wise its run poorly over last 2, but they have been in soft over different distances and in class 2’s. This is a class 5 and it’s dropping into 6F over Predicted firmer conditions which it has performed much better and won a class 5 in good to soft fairly easily in July. All in all, looks a no brainer at 16/1 and hopefully the rain doesn’t make the ground go too soft. There are also a couple of others that could do well but i’d be surprised if this doesn’t at least place.

    JamesP 03/09/17 10:36 PM Reply


    • N/R 🙁

      Jamesp 04/09/17 9:52 AM Reply


      • Ha cheers James… only green paint on the face…the rest is PVC – it was very very hot, especially in Popworld! 🙂
        Ah, great write up..always annoying when a NR and it goes up in smoke!

        Josh 04/09/17 12:39 PM Reply


  • hi josh i think your horse is out today at brighton if you havnt seen it BLESSED TO EMPRESS

    rocketman888 04/09/17 5:35 AM Reply


    • Cheers… yep she does indeed run today. Some notes above. The syndicate guys are very good at keeping us in the loop etc- hopefully she can run her race but hopeful more than expectant.

      Josh 04/09/17 9:12 AM Reply


  • Great costumes Josh.
    Did you get the Brighton 5.00 winner yesterday?
    Tell me you did.

    David Dickinson 04/09/17 9:03 AM Reply


    • Cheers David… yep I did tell the group about the runner in the 5.00- and it was a fitting end to the weekend!

      Josh 04/09/17 9:10 AM Reply


  • Green suits you Josh. I was on Redicean Sunday evening at 7/1. It does seem to have a good profile for the race.

    martin colwell 04/09/17 9:32 AM Reply


  • I like Aleef today, liked it more at 11/2 last night, mind! Got a lot going for it, if ready after the break.

    traf69 04/09/17 9:38 AM Reply


    • One of the Elite Squad selections today which I have backed as they are in form. Has a bit of weight to carry against LTO winners.

      End of month update on some micros I have put up in the past –

      W.Greatrex, to end August finished on +23, so went well.

      M.Johnston, Hcps,8+runners, ran 16 days or more (one of Josh’s) moved from +20 up to +31 at its highest and by end month was at +9. Therefore a drop off on this micro.

      Sir Mark P – 4 different all weather angles – started August at +16 and went up and down in month and finished at +15.83.

      Not much action on others but hopefully they will kick in in September? I will try to post them each day if I can. None today.

      martin colwell 04/09/17 10:18 AM Reply


  • Morning guys
    I have a small share in Aleef. Things haven’t gone to plan this season. He had a suspensory ligament injury which has delayed his first run. Didn’t get into a valuable race at Chelmsford and then deposited Ryan Moore on his backside at Epsom going down to the start, who then couldn’t be arsed getting back on him. We think he’s got loads of ability, but today is really about getting a run into him. I’m hoping he could still be good enough to win, but 5/2 isn’t a very attractive price. Whatever happens today he could be worth following, although he does sometimes have a sulk if things don’t go his way.

    steved 04/09/17 11:17 AM Reply


    • Cheers for the info Steve 🙂

      Gavin 04/09/17 12:32 PM Reply


    • Yes thanks Steve. much appreciated. Agree 5/2 seems on short side now, esp if he may come on plenty for it, looked worth a go at 11/2 / 4s just about I think given his profile.(+ES/treble rated) GL, hope he runs a big race for you.

      Josh 04/09/17 12:37 PM Reply


  • Like the picture Josh,Action Man has nothing to be worried about.BoB

    greyhound 04/09/17 11:53 AM Reply


    • Ah but Bob, you didn’t see me in action haha. Cheers!

      Josh 04/09/17 12:40 PM Reply


  • just booked my trip to Wetherby 3rd/4th november, dinner b&b and entry to paddock enclosure both days for £98pp hotel in easy walking distance so i’ll be able to have a few drinks 🙂

    martin whittle 04/09/17 11:54 AM Reply


    • Sounds like a good couple of days to me Martin. I wouldn’t mind going to Wetherby and will have a look/think..it is one of those tracks that is hard to get to on Public transport, nearest rail stations 12-15 miles away etc etc.

      Josh 04/09/17 12:42 PM Reply


  • Off tae Hexham tomorrow any pointers chaps

    Wilham 04/09/17 4:29 PM Reply


  • Well I can add today to Aleef’s season of woe. Played up in the stalls, missed the break, disliked the undulations and found the ground too firm – apart from that everything went well!!

    In 10 runs Aleef has been placed 6 times (including 2 wins) and the other 4 runs he has been last, which makes me think that he downs tools if he doesn’t get his own way. Basically he probably needs to ping the start and get an uncontested lead. The Portland was being suggested as his target – not too sure that he will get his conditions in that.

    Anyway that’s racing for you.

    steved 04/09/17 5:56 PM Reply


    • Ah yep, one of those.. he did seem a bit keen also- which given the break won’t have helped, and wasn’t much in tank when asked. And yea that is one of those tracks that they either like or don’t. At least he has shown ability already and you can live in hope that he will show it again one day!

      Josh 04/09/17 6:20 PM Reply


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