Free Daily Post: 02/09/17 (complete)

I am away this weekend so a quieter Saturday than normal from me and in truth I have no idea if there are any trends races today or not. So…

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Day Trainers

Navan

2.55 – Only Spoofing (any, 25/1< best)

4.40 –

Inscribe –  (any odds)

Faradays Law  (any, 25/1< best)

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GUEST PREVIEW/TIPS (from Speculate 2 Accumulate) 

Beverley 3.15

1 Final Venture – 1 point win @ 5/1

7 Line Of Reason – 1/2 point each way @  8/1

 

We had an excellent return last Saturday with 1st + 3rd in The Ebor at 12/1 and 11/1 and a deserved win at last for Nakeeta.

The Racing this Saturday is frankly devoid of too much too quality and also any really competitive big field races, in fact I was very tempted by the 7.50 at Chelmsford City, which just about sums the day up in terms of opportunity.

The Beverley Bullet is a famous old race and Group Class but the recent field size restrictions at the track and the slight “end of a long summer” feel, plus the fact a lot of Northern Trainers are now looking towards Doncaster and Ayr, in the middle of the month; leaves us with a disappointing field of 11 runners.

The biggest trend in this race relates to the draw, you have to be drawn in Stall 4 of lower.

I remember as a kid being told by my mom and at least 2 teachers, that if there were 100 people in a room and 99 agreed about something and 1 didn’t, I’d always be the 1!; may be that is where my sometimes “contrarian view” of racing comes from, bolshy; cantankerous and awkward are some of the more polite names I’ve been called but today I am going against that trend and I think very important to explain why.

It is a fact that low draw at Beverley has historically been the place to be, but like many tracks with better irrigation and grass management, things are slowly changing and I have noticed a trend in past few years here for horses to lay up just off the pace and to strike out nearer the centre of the Course whilst there can be traffic problems up the favoured

inside rail. I can’t deny that if something breaks from a low stall it can make all and be “gone” but looking at the field today; I think that the market has over-rated TAKE COVER who prefers flatter tracks and KIMBERELLA who now seems more at home over 6 furlongs. It is possible the former will set it up for the latter or that Mirza could fly home from stall 1 but; I will look elsewhere, and what better place than the Yard of Paul Midgeley, Sprint expert par excellence.

FINAL VENTURE is 3lbs well in with Take Cover for a recent 1/2 length defeat and at 5 years of age should be peaking; despite top weight it is very well handicapped and at 5/1 a nice win bet or one for a place saver if you wish. It likes to sit just off the pace and a draw in Stall7 could be ideal for that tactic and it should look to come wide and late. (I’ve tipped to win but if you want a place saver please feel free to do so)

LINE OF REASON is a Course and Distance winner, just dropped a few pounds by the Handicapper following some decent runs in better races than this, drawn in Stall 5 it has every chance of also being produced late and its Course form is a big asset as it knows how to get home up this tough hill.

I am, and I am happy to be, a bit of a slave to fortune with 2 hold up horses here but I am of the mindset that Take Cover will ensure a frantic pace but fade late on and that something will come “over the top” of Kimberella before that one can get in to full gear, trapping it on the rail and getting first run and my pair look ideally suited to do that.

Lets hope that my visualisation is correct.

The Elite Service will be back next FRIDAY + Saturday with tips at Ascot and Haydock Park.

Regards

Ian

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NOTE: I should add… we are close to everything being in place for a special deal for RTP readers for the above service… looking like a heavily discounted 3 month offer… whereby you have a money back guarantee for those three months, if you wish to leave at any point/end of that period, and want a refund. So, that should be good. But I will announce more when it is finalised. 

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Have a great Saturday. Josh

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • El Astronaut, Chester 2:30. What’s not to like about today, pretty much everything to suit with the trainer, jockey and horse all in reasonable form too, surely won’t be far away and 7/1 looks a fair price to me. I’m going in with the wheelbarrow, one I’ve borrowed from a small garden gnome.

    Chris Albin 02/09/17 1:19 PM Reply


  • oops 3:20 not 2:30

    Chris Albin 02/09/17 1:21 PM Reply


  • Why is the guest tipster referring to handicap marks when the race is a listed affair

    benalex 02/09/17 2:12 PM Reply


    • Benalex, a very good question. Although it is a Listed Race e.g horses carry a set weight based on age, gender etc; their respective handicap marks still have to be considered. The 3lbs for 1/2 length I referred to between Take Cover and Final Venture can still be extrapolated from the weights in this race and the respective weights last time that they met. In a Listed Race it is still possible to calculate how “well in” or “worse off” a horse is with any other it has met directly or through another horse who may not be in the race.

      I look closely at form that can be correlated between not only horses when they have met each other but also through horses that are not in a specific race that they may have met in races in close proximity. In simple terms if Take Cover is horse (a) and Final Venture is horse (b) they may also have met horse (c) on very differing terms through which an assesment can be made, especially relevant in”Hot races” that churn out a lot of good winners and placed horses.

      Take Cover was a fine and admirable winner today, no complaints although considering his behaviour before the race (at one point i was hoping he’d be withdrawn as he was so wound up); i though Final Venture ran an excellent race. It was also great to hear the Trainer visualise the chances of his horses on RUK before the race almost as if he had read R2P.

      I hope this helps to clarify..

      Regards

      Ian

      Ian @ SP2A 02/09/17 4:47 PM Reply


  • I’m well aware of how a handicap works and how to create form but your comment that line of reason had been dropped a few pounds is irrelevant

    benalex 07/09/17 9:34 AM Reply


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