Members Daily Post: 29/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Epsom

3.45 –

Cape Diem Lady (all hncps) 14 I3 10/1 UP

Tigerwolf (all hncps) G3 12/1 UP

4.50 – Epsom Secret (3yo+) G3 14/1 UP

 

Ripon

4.30 –

Monticello (3yo+, + micro TJC) 15/2 UP

Alexander (3yo+) H3 G3 11/10 UP

5.00-

Captain Revelation (all hncps) I1 G1  8/1 UP

Ventura Secret (micro class) ES 11/2 UP 3/1

 

Carlisle 

None.

 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

4.35 – Wolftrap (hncp hurdle) H3 I3 16/1 UP

5.05 – Bonobo (micro dist) H3 5/1 UP

6.35 –

Cillian’s Well (hncp hurdle) I1 9/1

In On The Act (micro dist) I3 15/2 

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 13/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/62,22p, -0.9) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 16/124, +24.6)

4.50 Epsom – Epsom Secret – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV) UP 13/2… she sweated up plenty before the race and looked far from in the mood to race…one to be wary of it seems… didn’t find much and not sure she handled the track. The fav who looked decent on paper did it well in the end. 

This one looks most interesting at the prices I think and is the only flat qualifier in said race – so no danger of picking the wrong one! This three year old is lightly raced and only having his fourth flat start. He gained his first win when upped to 10f two starts back and is thoroughly unexposed at the distance. He is 0/7 on the AW and I am not sure he stayed 12f the last day. He does need to step up in class here but it looks a weak enough race with many seemingly having questions to answer/or not in great form – bar the fav who does look the main danger. But, on only his fourth turf start and second at the distance, I was happy to roll the dice. Trainer/jockey are 3/12 in handicaps at the track in recent years which is another slight positive. We shall see how he goes…

I did ponder Cape Diem Lady whose trainer is in flying form…that length of break usually concerns me unless the horse has a profile of running well in said ‘rest pattern’ – which she does. So no issues there…in fact some of her lesser runs could be put down to returning to the track too soon. She moves back up in trip which is the main way in and has only had 2 runs at 7f before, winning once. (her only win) So, a case can be made. She has to prove she is a C4 animal having had a few goes, but none over 7f as yet. The selection got the nod because he is more lightly raced but she could out-run her odds and I may have to throw something at her just in case.

***

A decent 16/1 winner (and a nice drift) for the Jumps ES yesterday hopefully wets the appetite for the months ahead. After a slow start they are certainly finding their feet now and long may it continue. The jumps stats to date have always found more bigger priced winners than the flat so we could have an exciting winter.

**

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

None

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Good Morning Josh and all.

    Very nice 16/1 winner Josh, made a nice surprise when I got in from the pub 🙂 So a nice profit on the day for me.

    Just got the one top end of the market bet today

    16:30 Ripon – Sands Chorus (G1, H1, CD Trainer C1,C5) 5/1 win (Skybet)

    This looks like a nice little race, Alexander M did win by 6l and stayed on well LTO, but think at 11/10 up in class happy to take him on, there is another danger with Mulligatawny who love’s it at Ripon like SC but he’s never won at this Class, SC placed 2nd here 10 days ago to Brilliant Vanguard who won here yesterday in a C2 Think with Conditions looking good for SC he may just get the better of the others today to win off a career high mark.

    I could have egg on my face if Alexander M wins by 6 l again today haha

    GL for today

    Gavin

    Gavin 29/08/17 9:58 AM Reply


    • Well Mutamadad wins that races, returns on betfair at 80.9

      Gavin 29/08/17 4:35 PM Reply


  • Busy weekend and I haven’t looked at the cards for the past 3 days (I don’t drink much these days but happy hour cocktails followed by several Pisco Sours with Peruvian food at dinner was not something I could pass up) but Wolftrap looks like one of those nice solid e/w bets in the 16:35. The favorite is sucking up a huge amount of the market and is up in trip, class and weight even if he did it easily enough LTO. The pick ran some decent races last year with the hood on including a win and a 3l 2nd to the subsequent Martin Pipe runner up at the track. His last run with the hood on at Exeter has thrown up multi decent winners. They since took it off and managed to get his mark down to 1lb above his last wining mark so I like the fact that it goes back on today. Half the trainers in the field are out of form. He is also a double ratings summer jumps qualifier which is an added bonus.

    Nick Mazur 29/08/17 2:19 PM Reply


    • 4th like all the good e/w bets LOL

      Nick Mazur 29/08/17 5:37 PM Reply


      • Keep an eye on him, esp if getting any cut… he had a troubled passage a few times and a few unsighted/scrappy jumps…would have been 3rd but for those numerous incidents. Suspect he may pick up a weak hurdle soon enough.

        Josh 29/08/17 5:50 PM Reply


        • I’ve got him in the tracker although not sure ground would have been an excuse. I don’t know if the race was ran to suit. Certainly on the right mark now and hopefully will get dropped another lb for this.

          Nick Mazur 29/08/17 6:19 PM Reply


  • josh been with your systems for five weeks and i really like the format, its taken me awhile to get your big price way of punting,but i tend to agree with you that i am prepared to let a short price winner go by and not worry about it..i feel you have to go over the big priced horses the system throws up with a fine tooth comb because the winners seem to be among them, i was guilty of not looking properly at yesterday big pricrd winner from the mccain stable. I must admit not sure about epsom secret today because of small stable that dont have many winners.All in all josh the stats are great

    paul 29/08/17 4:28 PM Reply


    • Well you are doing well at avoiding my poor Flat bet of the day horses haha- as it turns out doesn’t matter what I would have picked the last couple of days!

      Yep, well 5 weeks is a short time in this game…it took me a few years to condition my head to looking beyond the front end of the market…I just can’t make it pay consistently at that end and do not find it as enjoyable. The idea of the systems/advised strategies, is to give you something you can just bet systematically as a foundation…and so that you don’t twist yourself in knots… to back or not to back…starting small and building up over time is always the way forward… just as the Flat ES hit their inevitable dip, which they were due, the Jumps ES step up to the plate and help us tick over… with the strategies there will always be winners that you would never have picked out on paper with subjective form analysis- which is why deciding whether to back them systematically so some extent is worth considering. But then you may just wish to take a horse by horse approach using the info/pointers/symbols/strategies etc… you just then have to live with missing winners! Which we all do. All about patience. I am confident in the stats/strategies over time and they will find decent priced winners, which come year end they are what makes the difference.

      Losing runs happen to us all…Pricewise had a shocker, not sure if still ongoing but that was 60+… the great Hugh Taylor has been having a torrid run in recent weeks- again he was due one.

      Anyway, on we march.

      Josh 29/08/17 5:57 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Heard from ATR to follow S Crisford at Ripon around 50% SR won yesterday with just one runner and won again today. Backed todays winner what is the angle with him at Ripon.?

    ES runners is there a micro angle ie; hurdles v chases, sprinters v middle distance,
    Has there been a price bracket min to max? Looking to narrow the field ?

    Mike

    mickeydee 29/08/17 4:42 PM Reply


    • HI Mike,
      Crisford was 1/7,2p at Ripon before today so no idea what ATR are talking about, well from the stats in front of me anyway. He didn’t have a runner here yesterday did he, let alone a winner??

      *
      ES runners are the micro angle haha- they don’t need any more work. As per all the links in the key they are based on the micro angles/angles within the main stats packs using the criteria as per the ES link. There is no logical reason why those base stats would be improved by looking at X instead of X. I don’t record that data either and have no intention of doing so, I don’t see any need.
      There isn’t a price bracket and won’t be. The ES is the attempt to narrow the field and provide some focus, unless I have completely missed your point which is always possible 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 29/08/17 5:06 PM Reply


Post A Reply