Members Daily Post: 28/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Chepstow

12.45 – Air Of York (all hncps) ES I3 6/1

1.15 –

Carcharias (all hncps) 13/2

Champagne Freddie (3yo+) I3 40/1

2.50 – Major Valentine (3yo+) I3 G1 8/1

4.00 – Medburn Cutler (all hncps) I3 10/1

 

Epsom

4.55 –

Sound Bar (all hncps) 14 8/1

Innocent Touch (micro age) H3 I3 G1 11/2

5.25 –

Shifting Star (micro TJC) I3 G1 22/1

Character Onesie (micro age) H3 I3 G3 6/1

 

Ripon

3.55 – Kharbetation (micro age) ES 8/1

5.35 – Barnaby Brook (all hncps) H3 15/2

 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Cartmel

3.30 –

Nicolas Chauvin (hncp chase) 12/1

Fantasy King (hncp chase) 25/1

Wisty (micro runs) H3 I1 11/4

4.05 –

Morning Royalty (hncp chase) H1 I1 9/2

Universal Soldier (hncp chase) 14,30 12/1

4.40 –

Forever My Friend (hncp chase + micro TJC) 14,30 H3 I1 9/2

Munsaab (hncp chase) 10/1

Bon Chic (hncp chase) I3  12/1

5.10 –

Tawseef (hncp hurdle) 14,30 ES 12/1

Court King (micro TJC) 14,30 H1 I3 3/1

5.45 – Theatrical Star (hncp hurdle + micro dist) 14,30 ES   8/1

 

JUMPS

Bonus

4.10 DP – Adimelo (hncp hurdle) ES 10/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 13/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…

12.45 Chip – Air of York – 1 point win – 6/1 UP 13/2.. blimey. That was awful. Chance he was on wrong part of track. No cover and was a bit keen I thought. In any case. I’m forgetting that run immediately.  Awful. 

 

Well I am running a bit behind today so focussed my eyes in the flat ES and treble rated, while briefly flicking through the others..and I thought this one may be the best of the lot, we shall see! (a class 6 handicap.. I am playing with fire!)

He is an exposed horse who is better on the AW but what caught my eye was the return to better ground (flat win on Firm, AW wins would suggest may not want cut…albeit that can be a lazy generalisation) the drop in class and the move up in distance which looks sure to suit. He drops 1lb from his last run and young D Eagan takes over – he is decent. He is an ES and if he repeats that last run in a better race, I would like to think he is in the mix here. 6/1 seemed fair. There are 3 or 4 other interesting ones… the Blake horse, Hannons, Passing Star… the rest seem unfancied/out of form.

Me putting him up is not a negative for the likes of Innocent Touch, Character Onesie or Kharbetation… the latter named is thoroughly unexposed… runs on decent ground/turf for the first time since that maiden win which could make the difference. He does step up in class but a chance he just hated the AW LTO…and his winner for us yesterday seemingly bounced back from an atrocious run LTO…that could also be linked to yard form. Innocent Touch won the same race last year… and is well enough handicapped….you would have to fear the SBS horse, but at least we know he handles the track etc…the 31 day break concerned me a tad- one of those longer than ideal breaks I don’t like too much in general, and certainly with flat horses…but he should run his race and 11/2 seems fair enough I think.

Yesterday…

Well Pioneering was a welcome double price winner for ES again…and just shows you that trusting the stats is no bad approach… he was unexposed enough/time on his side…and was doing a few things different… up in trip, drop in class…and when last running the yard was a bit quiet..so the win was no shock and I hope you had a nibble..  I didn’t have my maximum confident ES stake on him… I did think that last run was just a bit too poor but any horse can be forgiven a shocker it seems. ES > unexposed>doing a couple of major things different>poor trainer form excuse for recent runs… you don’t really need to over think that formula really! (esp when a double figure price) Sod the form of the horse 🙂

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish

3.00 DownP – Ri An Rian (25/1<)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results.. I will update advised strategy results Tuesday, and bring them up to date for the last couple of weeks.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • hi all
    was not having too good a day yesterday, until having £5 win on ELUSIVE TIME in irish cambridgeshire, got 42 to 1 on betfair, that changed the day!

    pendrem 28/08/17 11:18 AM Reply


  • I put Air of York in my tracker after his last run as an ES qualifier when a fast finishing 4th @ 22/1, btn just over a length and soon in front after the line. Look to be plenty of positives today.

    I also like the look of Mont Royal 12/1 in 2:45 Ripon. Won well at Beverley 2 runs ago and was wide throughout there last time. Pulled out of an engagement at Musselbrough which suggests they are targeting similar tracks. An extra furlong here, but slightly easier track and only 2lb higher than his win.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 28/08/17 11:48 AM Reply


  • Good morning Josh and all,

    Cracking win for you yesterday Josh, although bloody gunners had to let 4 in so you do us on GD haha 🙂

    Got a couple at the top of the market again today. Been doing well with these at late and yesterday saw me with 2 winners and a (muggy) forecast up. So I’ll keep posting my thoughts up if I remember.

    13:15 Chepstow – Barista (G1, H1, Jockey 14 C1, CD) 11/4 Win

    With the main danger King of swing a NR going to have to have a go at 11/4 only
    2lb higher from his win last time out and he a CD winner so having a bet here.

    14.00 Southwell – Tricky Dicky (G1, H1, CD) 5/2 win

    Think he is the one to bet, he’s only run on AW once which was in May this year at this track and over same distance, he won that race. There are a few dangers if in form who like the AW in this race, the likes of Treaty of Rome, The Big Lad and Nag’s Wag but TD ran a good race at redcar which saw an improver Magical Effect beat him (ME is in my Tracker). So I think if he can in form he can make it 2 for 2 on the AW.

    GL today all

    Gavin

    Gavin 28/08/17 11:51 AM Reply


    • GL Gavin… yep a cracking win. But we won’t face easier oppo at home all season..I mean they were woeful. Shocking. We were very good. But they had no shape,fight,leadership. A basic lack of professionalism. A few players who didn’t want to be there it seemed.

      GL today. I did note you have been bagging a few winners. Long may it continue.

      Josh 28/08/17 12:46 PM Reply


      • Yeah I did watch most of the game and there were rubbish.

        Well not again for my picks, Think if Barista was in a better draw it may of be different and happy Tricky Dicky made it 2 from 2 at southwell thought he may of idled a bit in font but got home nicely. Just the two remaining ES running for me today so off to h

        Gavin 28/08/17 2:40 PM Reply


        • bank holiday beer or 3 😉

          Gavin 28/08/17 2:41 PM Reply


  • good result for you reds yesterday, i think i will pass onair of york a bit to exposed for me with perhaps a liking for wolverhampton all weather. had a good bet on pioneering yesterday and i think david omeara maybe coming out of slumber could be a good september for him

    paul 28/08/17 12:37 PM Reply


    • That may prove to be wise we shall find out soon! Exposed horses in C6 is probably asking for trouble. Undoubted liking for Wolvs but run here LTO was decent enough. I want to get good at putting up one horse a day and should have got off fence yesterday…pioneering was only one at a price that looked of most interest… was blinded by recent form too much, esp last run.. and in context that it was C6. Still, betting bank was boosted so I won’t complain. Probably should have left today as was in a bit of a rush. No doubt innocent touch or Omearas ES will bolt up!! Yep his yard in much better form. Should have good end to season.

      Josh 28/08/17 12:43 PM Reply


  • i thinkd class 6 can be ok josh if the horse is unexposed because it can be running against moderate horses i always find it difficult picking exposed low grade animals maybe thats just me

    paul 28/08/17 1:36 PM Reply


    • oh yep, I agree with that.. yes C6 exposed horses is dangerous…maybe should be very rare and when double figure price… the ‘doing something different’ x2 lured me in there…no distance/class change and I would have left I suspect. Never mind! Hopefully if he does win on turf for Flint it is at Chep when an ES!

      Josh 28/08/17 1:45 PM Reply


  • been enjoying the wonderful bank holiday weather, just managed to lok through the racing to profit selections and the one horse that i really give a chance to is kharbetation 3,55 ripon. The o meara stable are in much better form now . Very lightly raced hopefully will win

    paul 28/08/17 2:16 PM Reply


  • BAKHIT just won @ 66 @ ripon, hcap debut after 3 runs, up 3 f in trip, could be a system there

    pendrem 28/08/17 3:07 PM Reply


  • Lovely win for Tawseef. Now I don’t know much about this horse racing lark but I was watching that race and our boy looked to be bobbing along merrily in second, yet the exchange price went out beyond 50/1. Thankfully I topped up my earlier bet in running for a nice win.

    Cheers Josh!

    Neil 28/08/17 5:19 PM Reply


  • Think you might have a great little earner over the jumps with the ES Josh,great price on Tawaseef 16/1

    gearoid180468 28/08/17 5:22 PM Reply


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