Members Daily Post: 26/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Goodwood

2.45 –

Sutter County (all hncps + micro TJC) I1 16/1 UP

Masham Star (all hncps) 16/1 UP

Shady McCoy (all hncps) 25/1 UP

 

Chester

1.50 –

Allnite (2YO) 6/1 UO

Coast Guard (2YO) 10/1 3rd 11/4

3.05 – Guishan (all hncps) H3 I1 16/1  WON 16/1>25/1 

4.15 – Call Out Loud (all hncps+ 4yo+) G3 25/1 UP

4.45 – Galactic Prince (BONUS) ES H3 I3 G3 7/2  2nd 

 

York

3.35 –

Battersea (all hncps) 10/1 UP

Dubka (3yo+) 14,30 H3  12/1 UP

4.40 –

Khairaat (3yo+)  14,30 H3 4/1 UP

UAE Prince (all hncps) H3 I3  10/3 UP

 

Newm (J)

5.00-

Syrian Pearl (all hncps) 30  ES I3 9/2 UP

Cool Bahamian (3yo+) 14  H3 G3 5/1 UP

5.35 – Oh So Sassy (all hncps) 30  ES I3 G1 11/2 UP

 

Redcar

6.55 – Gun Case (3yo+) 8/1 4th 6/1

 

Windsor

7.10 –

Abiento (all hncps) 9/2 WON 5/1 

Field of Vision (micro TJC) H3 G1 3/1  3rd 

7.40 –

Abel Tasman (all hncps) G3 10/3

Miss Inga Sock (3yo+) H1 I3 

Love Conquers (micro age) 14 H3 I3 G3 2/1

 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Cartmel 

4.00- Dotties Dilema (hncp chase + micro TJC) 14,30 5/1 UP

4.35 – Fair To Middling (hncp chase + micro TJC+age) 14,30 H1 5/2 

5.10 – Benny In Milan (micro runs)  15/2 UP

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 13/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/60,21p, +1.1) (Jumps: 9/62, +25.5) (total: 16/122, +26.6)

 

6.55 Redcar – Guncase – 1 point win – 7/1 (general) (8/1 Bet365, 15/2 around)

I am going to endeavour to get off the fence and actually pluck out one horse a day (flexible at weekends,life can get in the way!) that looks interesting from section 1, and live up to the name of ‘bet of the day’- which in truth it hasn’t been. The general principles remain.. ideally unexposed horses with a few other pointers (such as yesterday’s) and a decent price (value in the eye of the beholder)… or, if needs be, like today’s selection… ‘been there and done it horses’ returning to what looks like ideal conditions. This bet of the day will include any strategy picks but I really should be able to do ok over time with this approach. I may relax my price rules and actually attempt to do well with those in the 7/2-11/2 range.. I won’t go under 7/2 as that is just too far for me and makes me very uncomfortable. Chris over at Geegeez/SOTD sets the ‘1 bet a day’ benchmark and he does bloody well in that price range.. so, let’s see how we get on! 🙂 … don’t worry, my eyes will generally be fixed on the bigger odds ones, and with that said…

 

When flicking through those above 4 horses looked of most interest… Galactic Prince / Khairaat / Cool Bahamian / Gun Case…

Gun Case… well he happens to be the biggest price of the lot which was some influence… but there are some positives… he drops back into C6 here and runs back over 7f which seems his ideal trip..indeed all his flat handicap wins have come over 7f.. 3/6,4p. He is 1/2,2p Redcar and 1/1 CD. He is 1/2,2p in C6. Makin has ridden him once before without success but the trainer usually doesn’t mess around when booking him – 2/7,5p all runners. The horse… well his last win was over CD in October off 67. Off 64 today he is clearly well handicapped. He has won on the turf off 70. Makin last rode him in July 2016. He shows up well on the Geegeez ‘instant expert’ tab and importantly looks to have plenty of pace to aim at here… he does need a strong pace to aim at and will need luck in running. He will be doing his best work late but looks solid enough at that price. He is doing plenty different (drop in trip/class/return to CD/jockey switch/mark falling) and this should be run to suit. I expect a run for my money. The one niggle is trainer form… but if you are a Geegeez user with the new ‘negative pointers’ this is where they can be deceptive… Whillans is 1/31 or so last 30 days, 0/14,4p last 14… most of those have been 16/1+, no hopers. Those that have been 12/1 or shorter have generally run well/hit the board. I am not concerned about the yard form. The fancied ones are running their races.

So, that’s the case for him…

Others

Of the others..

Galactic Prince seems decent enough and if I couldn’t have made a case for Gun Case then he would have been ‘bet of the day’. I think 7/2 is fine. He has been running in C2s and hated soft the last day by all accounts. He drops back into C4 and should be able to hug the rail the whole way round. He ran at Ascot in a way that suggested he should relish this extra 2 furlongs..it is an unknown and he had been winning/running well over 12f. But, in a field this size, certainly no reason to be put off at those odds. I hope Probert (who rides the track well) has him handy enough and not held up.

Khairaat – well hopefully one of the two in this wins, but in a 20 runner race 9/2, and 10/3 feels short enough. The Stoute horse has a similar profile I suppose to yesterday’s winner..but he isn’t 12/1. He is unexposed and ran a cracker the last day from out the back. I wonder if they will try and race him more prominently here…it has been the place to be. I think I like him of the two. UAE Prince keeps being an ‘unlucky’ horse.. he will sluice up in one of these at some point, maybe today, but that feels short enough. Again he had a shocking run at Goodwood. Big field, stronger pace, wide open expanses of York, should see him in better light. There are no excuses today. I do wonder if the Varian runners are just going off the boil after a hot spell. We shall see.

Cool Bahamian… he has won THIS race the last two years and the 34 days rest or so suggests he may well have been aimed at it again. He is better treated than those years and has been running ok. He looks interesting at 5s… Syrian Pearl lines up in this and is an ES… i am a bit anti him at his price but no doubt will leave me red faced… he is a hold up horse and I hate those, even more so at the July course. He needs so much to go right and I am not sure if there will be a pace collapse… I think the Evans runner will try and make all up the golden highway (you HAVE to be up nearside rail…many a jockey riding there this season need shooting..some lack any brains, or unwilling to ignore instructions maybe…Oisin Murphy dominated yesterday… he knew) Stalls are against the rail so you want low numbers/that can race prominently… anyway, Cool B should track the Evans horse.. and Syrian will need a pace collapse. I am not sure he has been running great either. We shall see. I’ll have something on but more on CB.

I should mention Windsor.. would not surprise me if we win both races there…but for the life of me I can’t work out which ones.. strong cases can be made for all, and they are all short enough to my eyes… esp in context of focusing on just one in each race.. I know I will end up picking the wrong two!

*

As always do with that as you please.. no doubt I haven’t mentioned the only winners of the day! 🙂 Please use those as ‘positives’ I suppose, rather than negatives to put you off a horse that I haven’t mentioned.

I think that is the lot for today. GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys 

7.40 Wind- Abel Tasman (any odds)

Irish Angles

4.20 Kil – Deans Road / Devils Bride (both any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

YORK:

Micro Angles (Haggas)

(a welcome winner yesterday, only 3/1 or so but a +1 point profit on the day, -3 for meeting…hopefully one/two of these can go in…)

2.25 – The Grand Visir (m1/2)

3.00- Headway (m1/2)

5.15 – Pennsylvania Dutch

 

‘Notes’ 

(as always my advice would be to use as starting points as part of your own analysis) 

* = angle with 5+ winners

1.55 – Mondialiste *

2.25 – Bin Battuta

3.00- Stormbinger (if 16/1<) *

3.35 –

Winning Story

Natural Scenery

4.10 – Fallable (if 16/1<)

4.40 –

Bravery (if 8/1<)

Weekend Offender (if 16/1<)

5.15 –

Major Jumbo (16/1<)

Pennsylvania Dutch

 

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Josh
    Please could you cancel my membership.
    I do not require any refunds.
    Thanks
    David

    David Dickinson 26/08/17 5:37 AM Reply


    • Hi David,
      That’s just the comment I like waking up to on a Saturday morning 🙂 … no problem, all done. You won’t be billed again, albeit should have access through to 22nd September.
      Sorry it wasn’t for you, but with any luck you continue to dip into the other free posts etc etc,
      All the best with your future punting,
      Josh

      Josh 26/08/17 8:46 AM Reply


    • Is it because you need more time with your antiques David.

      Roddo 26/08/17 9:42 AM Reply


      • Roddo
        If you mean looking after my dying brother then yes.

        David Dickinson 26/08/17 10:18 AM Reply


        • Hi David, so sorry to hear that… I thought Roddo’s comment was in good humour but I can fully understand why you are not in the smiling mood. I wish you would have emailed me. You may have no time/wish to dip into these pages but in any case I have restored your membership free of charge for the foreseeable future. I hope you can find some cheer somewhere, in what will no doubt be a testing few months. All the best, Josh

          Josh 26/08/17 10:27 AM Reply


  • Unfortunately SOTD is in the middle of an awful run.

    jc3152 26/08/17 10:16 AM Reply


    • Ah, well, Chris/SOTD was due one in fairness… a natural correction after a mad first 6 or so months or the year. usually is a +70-100 points per year come rain or shine and will no doubt be so again. That is betting, and another reason for never steaming in when an approach is on the crest of the wave.

      Josh 26/08/17 10:29 AM Reply


      • Yes but he has been beaten in photos last 2 out of 3 and so he may be coming back? If you put £100 win on all of his selections in 2017 up to 6 weeks ago you would have been , as I was £5916 up. Because of the losing run I stopped backing his selections until things turn. If you had stuck with the £100 win stake you would now be £3,408 up in 2017. So you can see what a losing streak does. Hopefully next week brings a change of fortune and the winners start rolling again?

        martin colwell 26/08/17 10:48 AM Reply


        • It will return at some point.. his long term winning strike rate is what it is, and has been incredibly consistent. It will return at some point… likewise Gary P hasn’t hit poor patch yet after recent mad success…but that will come, it just has to. Both won’t be doing anything different than they have always done. Albeit we all know how losing runs etc affect you mentally.

          Josh 26/08/17 10:51 AM Reply


  • Having a little play at York in three of the handicaps.

    14:25 York – Qaviy Cash
    15:35 York – Magic Circle
    17:15 York – Holmeswood

    Good luck today 🙂

    Gavin 26/08/17 11:50 AM Reply


  • Josh just the 6 bets today Guishan was the first at BFSP 42 What a way to start the days punting GL

    finalflight 26/08/17 3:20 PM Reply


    • Not a bad start to a punting day! 🙂 Well done, top picking. Glad you had a piece.

      Josh 26/08/17 3:29 PM Reply


  • lovely 3pt bet on Guishan @38.0 🙂

    martin whittle 26/08/17 4:03 PM Reply


  • josh what would guncase be 5-10 or 20 pound bet

    paul 26/08/17 5:26 PM Reply


    • He was a 10 for me at 8s .. my ‘bet of the day’ stake is 10, that is the standard 1 point really. Sometimes I throw extra 5, rarely an extra 10. I would just level stakes with most things, then make your own judgement if you fancy something more etc.

      Josh 26/08/17 5:40 PM Reply


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