Free Daily Post: 26/08/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

2.25 York- Master Singer (any)

3.35 York – Winning Story (14/1<)

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York Ebor

Concluding thoughts… (working out is below) 

Cohesion is a NR which reduces the list and I am going to list the horses in order of preference….

1.Star Storm.. UP my main fancy from that lot I think. TJC are 3/7,4p in handicaps. Fanshawe in C2 flat handicaps, horse 60+ days rest… 4/16,9p. He is also age 5 which historically is the best age to be in this. And he us unexposed at the trip. At 10s or so he will be my main dart. He is also top 3 on Geegeez and Inform ratings.

2.Natural Scenery.. 3rd 16/1 ( AHHH so unlucky…we move on) hasn’t done too much wrong and has a claimer on board which peaked interest. Only 1/5,2p on turf there could be more to come. Looks to stay well and should run her race hopefully, for a trainer who has won this before.

3. Arch Villain… 4th 50/1 (decent enough… 17.85 place on BFSP) well this trainer has readied the odd horse after monster breaks before, and horses have won this race after lengthy absences.. clearly not one to go mad on but at 50s+, given place on the shortlist, I’m going to have to back him EW for small stakes. Just have to. Can you imagine if he wins/places with nothing on! Urgh. I’m not going to that dark punting place again. Clearly a stab.

4. Ivan Grozny… UP Mullins doesn’t usually mess about with his flat runners and nor in this race. He is in form and well the horse could just be anything on the flat, including not very good. He ran at Galway LTO which is a positive and stamina shouldn’t be a problem. Just whether he has the pace/class. Only one way to find out…

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Those are my main 4 darts… of the rest…

Winning Story.. I dismissed on the basis of the weight… nothing has won this with 9-10 on back in last 20 years, exc claims, I believe and this looks a tough task. Jockey bookings wouldn’t inspire confidence either. Visor replaces CP, and doesn’t really arrive here in form. May leave me red faced but I will leave I think. Uh oh. 🙂

Battersea… has a claimer on board and could take this. 4th in race last year off 7lb higher effectively. Came from too far back I think. The rest concerns me, 100+ days off… horse is 0/5,1p after breaks of 60+ days albeit some of those in very hot races and he ran ok. Varian can ready them. Hood is also removed. Maybe he is the answer but something niggled at me.

Flymetothestars... it’s his first run on turf.. that was the main question, and at single figure odds may not be a big enough price for me to find out whether he can answer it. He may have no issue at all but it is a question he has to answer. Unexposed, connections in form, I won’t be shocked if he wins this. Maybe saver material. Or bigger. Who knows.

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Stats/trends/shortlist…

10/10 : 0-1 track runs

10/10: placed at least once last three starts

10/10 : 8-13 or more on back

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Those 3 stats leave 11 runners… too many…

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9/10 had RUN over 16f+

Which…leaves 8:  Winning Story / Battersea / Ivan Grozny / Natural Scenery / Star Storm / Cohesion / Arch Villain / Flymetothestars

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I can’t really get it lower than that on the stats and it includes a 9/10 so may well have not have mentioned the winner!

  • 9-10 is a negative, those are 0/24 in last 20 years, which would be a question for Winning Story

-Horses that ran at Galway LTO are 3/12,6p last 10 years, a plus for Ivan Grozny

Claiming Jockeys – have a really good record in this, which given the distance is no surprise…any weight off prob makes a big difference… all claiming jocks are 4/25,8p, +79 BFSP last 10 years. Within those 4 stats above they are 4/7,4p…

-Within that ‘shortlist’ of 8 that would point the eyes to:  Battersea / Natural Scenery / Cohesion

-With those 4 stats above, and that shortlist of 8… in the last 10 years those with 0-1 runs over the distance are 8/26,10p, +146 BFSP… that is a sort of micro that leaves 5…

Flymetothestars / Ivan Grozny / Star Storm / Natural Scenery / Cohesion …

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Do with that as you please. They are not ‘tips’ as such, but hopefully something of interest there.

GL with any bets.

 

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • itv 7.
    1 Standard 1:55 York – Win Mustashry @ Guaranteed Price (11/4) – £1.00
    2 Standard 2:10 Goodwood – Win Ertiyad @ Guaranteed Price (7/1) –
    3 Standard 2:25 York – Win The Grand Visir @ Guaranteed Price (11/1) –
    4 Standard 2:45 Goodwood – Win Suzi’s Connoisseur @ Guaranteed Price (14/1) –
    5 Standard 3:00 York – Win Headway @ Guaranteed Price (11/4) –
    6 Standard 3:20 Goodwood – Win Hathal @ Guaranteed Price (10/3) –
    7 Standard 3:35 York – Win Flymetothestars @ Guaranteed Price (8/1)

    martin whittle 26/08/17 5:34 AM Reply


  • forgot to post these last couple of days (at least that has saved some embarrassment )
    small profit yesterday but still 19 pts down over the 3 days,
    York day 4.
    1-55. Mustashry 11-4 4pt win
    2-25.Bin Battuta 7-1 2pt ew, Domination 25-1 1pt ew.
    3-00. Staxton 10-1 1pt ew, Stormbringer 25-1 1pt ew.
    3-35. Ivan Grozny 8-1 2pt ew, Elidor 28-1 1pt ew,
    4-10. Fallable 33-1 1pt ew.
    4-40 Save The Bees 25-1 1pt ew, Bravery 25-1 1pt ew, Weekend Offender 10-1 1pt ew.
    5-15. Major Jumbo 10-1 1pt ew, Pennsylvania Dutch 8-1 1pt ew.

    martin whittle 26/08/17 5:38 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    Connections of Flymetothestars were saying he would wouldn’t run unless there was some soft in the going description so unless they’ve changed their minds we won’t have to second guess ourselves on that one. I agree Star Storm looks a really good bet. (Neil Channing has also put him up on as a free tip). Glad you’ve left Arch Villian in there. I still have nightmares about spotting Litigant fit plenty of trends and not having a penny on 80/1. I also want a bet on Mukalal in the Goodwood 14:45 who seems to fit the right profile for the race.

    Nick Mazur 26/08/17 11:20 AM Reply


    • Morning Nick,
      Yep I think we have the winner between us of that race! 🙂 A Doyler special coming up, or an Arch Villain to swoop past late! Oh blimey.. yep I can imagine that giving you punting nightmares. At 50s + when on stats shortlist it can be painful trying to find reasons to leave them, and then doing so! Just have to assume he is fit and if not then so be it.
      GL with the Tregoning horse…had a look at race when looking at the three TTP horses… thought he was interesting on a pace front also, he will be up there in right place anyway. Yard in cracking form. Eyes did get drawn to him, may have to have an EW nibble given 4 places.
      Josh

      Josh 26/08/17 11:44 AM Reply


  • Is there any simple systems to follow e w singles tried allsorts help please

    Pat Mulholland 26/08/17 11:27 AM Reply


    • What about trainers at certain courses using Josh’s trainer stats or those from the Racing Post? Say 8/1 and better?

      martin colwell 26/08/17 11:50 AM Reply


    • Hi Pat,
      No simple systems in this game sadly.. betting wise i would always advise sticking to single bets on the whole, rarely betting EW…but that is personal preference and I can mentally withstand some shocking losing runs (most of the time) If you want simple, quick wins, it just won’t happen. The game is too tough.

      I would advise focusing on a certain race type or a certain ‘way in’ . for me/members that is generally trainer stats, or big race stats as above, or indeed the free micro systems as above. You have to focus on what you enjoy. I never use the Racing Post so couldn’t tell you what their stats etc are like but dare say something of interest/use there, or sporting life or AtTheRaces.

      Getting starting points is key I think… you could then apply what I call the ‘is the horse doing something different philosophy’ … so with those starting points/horses, focusing on more unexposed horses and asking what are they doing differently from their recent runs… move in class/trip/ground chance/jockey change/trainer in form/horse unlucky LTO… if your eyes are mainly fixed on unexposed handicappers, you always have a chance…as they are bound to improve at some point. That’s the thinking there anyway.

      Or you follow the odd system on the free posts , or members.. such as Elite Squad or ‘treble rated’ – they are as simple as you can get I think, and have been doing well enough,

      Josh 26/08/17 12:11 PM Reply


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