Members Daily Post: 16/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

A ‘G3’ added to 4.50… 

 

FLAT 

Salisbury 

2.50 – Trick of The Light (all hncps) H3 3/1 2nd 

4.50- Bengal Lancer (all hncps) H3 G3 4/1 WON 4/1>5/2

 

Beverley

4.10 – Sunglider (micro TJC)  ES I1 9/2 UP

5.15 –

Alphabetical Order (micro TJC) ES H3 12/1 2nd 14/1 

Regal Mirage (micro runs) H1 I3 G3 9/4 UP

5.45 – Cross Fire (3yo+) I3  16/1 UP

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Newton Abbot 

3.00- Cillians Well (hncp hurdle) 14H1 I3 5/1 UP

4.00-

Khismet (hncp hurdle) 14I1 6/1  UP

Scrumpy Boy (hncp hurdle + micro runs) 66/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Bangor 

6.20 –

Excellent Team (all hncps) 14,30 I3 14/1 UP 

Lord Huntingdon (all hncps + micro TJC + runs) 10/1 WON 6/1

8.20 –

Pretty Reckless (all hncps) 14,30  14/1 UP

Keepin Time (all hncps) 14,30 10/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to 13/08/17) 

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to 13/08/17) 

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/59,21p, -10.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/120, +15.6)

 

4.00 NA – Khismet – 1 point  win – 6/1 (gen) UP 5/1… hmmm.. had an awful start and had to come from far back.. not sure if made any difference as was right by the eventual winner at one stage. Didn’t really pick up as hoped, poor really.

Khismet – well if you don’t want to/don’t have the time to watch the video… in short 6/1 hit my price cut off and I think it is a couple points too big.. unexposed in handicap hurdles and a CD winner at the back end of last year. This is her 3rd start after an extended break and it could be she is now at peak fitness, returned to this venue. That would make plenty of sense. The trainer is in decent form and I thought she was well worth a go. It is summer jumping so anything could happen but I’d be disappointed if she wasn’t thereabouts at the finish. Hopefully her younger legs see off a few of the rivals in here. She has to prove she is up to C4 but there have been valid excuses for those three runs and at the price I was happy to dive in.

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VIDEO! 

(the week ahead, Khismet, Bengal Lancer, ES Quals etc) 

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

CD Jockeys

5.15 Bev – Star of Lombardy (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From Monday’s post..

FLAT RESULTS UPDATE:

Flat updated to end July.

Analysis

General

The all qualifiers spreadsheet above list all qualifiers in section 1 of the members’ daily posts. These are the starting points. Unlike the jumps stats, the flat version does not find as many ‘biggies’. Backing all qualifiers is never advised but for the Jumps it has been a profitable approach to date. That has not been the case with the flat. My main focus is that the overall stats, especially winners/win% and place% is decent. The advised strategies help add a level of sophistication to these trainer stats picks, as well as any of your own subjective judgement.

The overall stats since the start of the flat season, to end of July, for all qualifiers…

978 bets / 130 wins / 316 wins|places / 13% win / 32% win|place / -56 early / -240 ISP / -133.5 BFSP

I am happy with the number of winners and percentages, especially as there are no odds caps. As always the challenge is to find as many of the winners as possible, while trying to avoid as many losers as possible. Knowing 32% of all qualifiers win or place is a decent starting point. There isn’t much more to say on that. If those % keep repeating that will be fine.

I suppose there is a ‘value’ point to be made… in general the stats highlight overpriced horses, as evidenced by the early / BFSP figures, against Industry Starting Price. Beating ISP is always important.

2 Year Olds

These stats are the only non-handicap stats in the pack, and look at trainers’ records with first time out 2 year olds.

At end of July these were…

47 bets / 6 wins / +7.5 (early|bog)

Bonus (3 YO Only Handicap(

(2 of 3 trainers are Elite Squad, G Moore- not ES- yet to have a qualifier at Goodwood)

22 bets /  5 wins / 9 wins|places / +8.5 (early/bog) / +8 (BFSP)

Any questions, then fire away.

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YORK EBOR MEETING

I have pulled out the trainer notes into a separate doc HERE>>>

William Haggas is the main ‘trainer in focus’ so let’s hope he has a good week/the string are firing.

I have pulled out two ‘micro systems’ based on the strength of the stats size etc

I will try and post ‘qualifiers’ against those two micros from Day 1.

I’ll endeavour to post up any ‘qualifiers’ against the positive pointers but you may be on your own for days 1+2,we shall see. By then I may be crying out to look at some horses, with a beer in hand, by the pool 🙂 You have the notes to use/ignore as you please.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Have a good break Josh. Always good to recharge the batteries. Try to relax and get away from it all. Cheers Ben

    921389 16/08/17 9:28 AM Reply


    • Cheers Ben, yep I intend to do plenty of recharging, ready to return and attack all things Jumps racing. Bar 20/30 mins needed to update these posts, with help of Mike who sends me quals on odd time I go away, i don’t plan to ‘think horse’. Josh

      Josh 16/08/17 9:55 AM Reply


  • Havent had time for your video today yet and maybe you have mentioned this already, but i notice that Mark Johnston is 22/8/14 +33 in last 5 years with his runners that are 60+days since last run at Beverley in last 5 years. Todays qualifier, 440 Bev Miss Danby, 8/1.
    cheers

    jamesm 16/08/17 11:31 AM Reply


    • Nope, that stats wasn’t anywhere near my radar! Didn’t focus on any of his runners today, but that looks a solid stat! GL

      Josh 16/08/17 11:42 AM Reply


  • We’ve landed, I’m now by the pool beer in hand. Hopefully the ES winning will make it a perfect day 😀

    Gavin 16/08/17 12:04 PM Reply


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