Members Daily Post: 14/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr

2.15 – Kensignton Palace (3yo+) 12/1 UP

3.15 – Remember Rocky (3yo+)  ES 8/1 UP 

4.45 – Royal Regent (3yo+) ES  H3 8/1 2nd 8/1>9/2 

5.15 – Granite City Doc (3yo+) ES 33/1 UP

 

Ripon

3.00-

Gaelic Tiger (4yo+, + micro age) ES I3 9/1 PU

Chancery (4yo+) H3 I3 5/1 UP 

4.30- Cosmic Dust (4yo+) 14  33/1 UP

 

Windsor

7.10 – Toulson (3yo+) I3 9/2 UP 5/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (NEW!)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

Main Stats Guides (used for section 1 quals) : Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Not much to add today. Having had a flick through my head says the ES quals look up against it/a few too many questions to answer, but often when I think that something surprises me! I suppose Gaelic Tiger is lightly raced/unexposed enough still, and tries this trip for the first time. He looks like he’s failed to stay 1m4f but what with the O’Meara yard being quiet, that weak finishing could be linked to that. Never let me put you off anything.

A note on Granite City… Normile’s flat handicappers in her career to date… those sent off 14/1+ SP are now 0/76,8p. Do with that as you please. She will have a winner one day, maybe today, but appears the market can guide.

Toulson… well he gets the dreaded vote of confidence.. I thought he looked most interesting from those above.. in the sense he could still have a bit of progress in him, he has been running in races that have worked out well, and is the only C3 winner in this field. He appears to be in form still and first time CP may eek out more. Just a case of whether something more unexposed steps forward, which would temper some enthusiasm… market suggests that could be the SBS horse, but he will have to prove his stamina. He looks solid, something may have more in hand, but he should  be thereabouts hopefully.

Jay Kay.. I should mention him… runs in the 3.15 Ayr… I fancied him LTO at Sandown when a qualifier, but ran an odd sort of race. He is best when making all and should be able to do that- if they want him to. He returns to his fav track and Haynes rides- he appears to get on with him best. I would prefer him to be in the slightly lower C5 than this one but enough places in this grade/higher. Given the pace set up, return here, jockey change… I did have a go at 8s. If they were setting him up for a gamble, you’d hope he was backed. Or it could be he just isn’t firing just yet. Not one to go mad on but worth a look. Conditions look near enough ideal.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results update  for FLAT ‘advised strategies’ (I will update the doc/link above when back in Liverpool Monday afternoon/evening)

Strategy #1

Rules:

  • Horse is Double or Treble Top Rated: Two of H1 I1 G1, or all three.
  • Any Odds

Results:

Week:  0/3,0p

Total:

45 bets / 13 wins / +12.75

 

Strategy #2

Rules:

  • Top Rated + a Top 3 Rated: At least one of H1,I1,G1, and at least one of H3 I3 G3
  • Any odds

Results:

Week:

3/12,6p, +8

Total:

151 bets / 33 wins / +37.3 points

 

Strategy #3 (Elite Squad)

Rules:

  • An ‘Elite Squad’ Qualifier: ES next to name
  • Any odds

Results:

Week:

2/23,8p.  -7

Total:

131 bets / 26 wins / 56 w|p / +48.2 points /   (+41 BFSP.. to be updated)

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Strategy #4 (Treble Rated)

Rules

  • Horse is treble rated: 1 of each ratings sets (I1/3, H1/3, G1/3)
  • Any odds

Results

Week:

4/7,4p, +12.2

Total: (since start of season)

93 bets / 30 wins / 47 wins|places / +39.2 (early|bog)  / BFSP (to be updated, +10 before last week)

 

Two others being monitored

Strategy #5

Rules:

  • HorseRaceBase Top 3 Rated + GeeGeez Top 3: H3 + G3
  • Any odds

Results

  • 62 bets / 15 wins / 24 places / +12.2

 

 

Strategy #6

Rules:

  • Top Rated, 6/1 or bigger: H1, I1, G1 (1 or more), 6/1 or bigger on prices entered next to horse’s name. SP irrelevant.

Results:

109 bets / 15 wins  / +40.5

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Thanks for the early post Josh. Hope you’ve recovered from yesterday’s festivities. Am I correct in assuming that all the ES stats are for 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps (barring the bonus stats) and 3yo only races are normally excluded?

    Nick Mazur 13/08/17 6:45 PM Reply


    • No probs.. yep it was good thanks, a good 30 odd here… we are all getting old. In years gone by everyone one need turfing out at 2pm, music off, ushered out door. Everyone left around 1pm this time all by themselves haha. Must be age/growing responsibilities no doubt. But, it was a good night. I sensibly stuck to beer and escaped the dreaded hangover.

      You Q… Yes think you are correct…

      ALL stats in section 1 for flat, excluding bonus… look at 3yo+ and 4yo+ handicaps only. They exclude selling/maiden handicaps (other than when I make an error and post them/don’t read race type properly!) They exclude nursery handicaps and 6yo+ (veterans) handicaps.

      The ‘bonus’ stats are only ones focused on 3YO only… Moore/Goodwood, Dascombe/Haydock , Balding/Chester…

      ES stats only relate to the main stats pack, each track (3yo+, 4yo+ handicaps) and Bonus stats (3yo only)

      Josh 13/08/17 7:08 PM Reply


      • Yeah I have learned to calm it down in my 30s. More about food for me these days although still can quite happily knock back a couple of bottle of prosecco.

        Ah cool that would explain why one of O’Meara’s 3 year olds wasn’t in there since its was popping up on my systems since I have started adding them in as its a 3yr old only race. Will refer back to it in the future when I add the rest of them on HRB.

        Nick Mazur 13/08/17 7:25 PM Reply


        • BTW Jay Kay back at Ayr tomorrow. Haynes up for just the one ride and seems to be the lone pace. (cue it finishing last)

          Nick Mazur 13/08/17 7:28 PM Reply


  • Any thoughts on Ruth Carrs runner in the Ayr 4.45?
    Has ran a listed race in May with the likes of Ribchester in the field. Probably not up to that level but a class 3 handicap may well be. 11/1 available as I type this with 3 firms and as low as 15/2 with others. Possible each way thief.

    David Dickinson 14/08/17 7:31 AM Reply


    • I backed Mutamaded last night after seeing Ruth Carr’s record with 1st time handicappers (1/5,2 places A/E 3.88) and 1st time starters for the stable (2/17, 3 places P/L 13.00 BFSP). Not high strike rates but both profitable strategies for the trainer and combined I felt it was a play at 12/1.

      JamesP 14/08/17 9:43 AM Reply


  • EDIT:
    My last post should read – with the likes of Birchwood in the field.

    David Dickinson 14/08/17 7:54 AM Reply


  • Big drift for Granite City Doc today – I threw on a couple of extra quid at 100/1 with 365 half an hour ago – but it’s come back in to 33/1 again. Fingers crossed!

    Neil 14/08/17 5:14 PM Reply


    • travelled well to a point, I did have some shrapnel on at BFSP just in case… leaving a 50s+ ES horse with nothing on wouldn’t be the most enjoyable of experiences! He will win for them in future no doubt, maybe becoming an Ayr regular.

      Josh 14/08/17 5:24 PM Reply


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