Members Daily Post: 10/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Haydock

1.50 – Punkawallah (all hncps+micro TJC) H3 G1 4/1

4.20 – Conqueress (all hncps + micro TJC + micro runs) ES 

 

Brighton

3.30 –

Spinners Ball (all hncps) I1 12/1

Foresee (3yo+)

Sir Jack (3yo+, + micro TJC) ES I3 G1 15/2

4.00-

Golden Wedding (all hncps) 14 ES I3  15/2

Evanescent (3yo+) 10/1

Ocil De Tigre (3yo+) G1

4.30 – Miss Inga Sock (all hncps) 14 ES H3 5/1

5.00 – Oddsocks (all hncps) 25/1

 

Yarmouth

3.40 – Thecornishbarron (all hncps) 28/1

4.10 –

Gunmaker (all hncps + 3yo+) ES  6/1

Verdi (all hncps) 25/1

 

Sandown

5.35 – England Expects (all hncps) 14 G1 12/1

7.45 – Tigerwolf (all hncps) G3 20/1

8.20 – High Draw (all hncps) 14  H3 G3  7/1

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (NEW!)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

NEW! Main Stats Guides: Summer Stats: Read HERE>>> | Jumps (all non summer only tracks): Read HERE>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

 

3.30 Brighton – Spinners Ball – 1 point win – 12/1

5.00 Brighton- Oddsocks – 1 point win – 25/1

5.35 Sand – England Expects – 1 point win – 12/1

8.20 Sand – High Draw – 1 point win – 7/1

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Well, is this a desperate hunt for a Birthday winner or two?? Quite possibly but to my faltering ‘flat tipping eyes’ (it is a ‘test!’) these horses seem a rather big price to me… i was on the fence,esp Brighton..i never do too well there, it is generally dross etc etc.. but they lured me in…and I ended up betting my ‘bet of the day’ stake on them (£10 for me) so only right I get off the fence…

Spinners Ball- he shouldn’t be 12s, just shouldn’t.. unless he has lost a leg/is now completely out of form… he is 1/5 in turf handicaps, that win coming over 11f on GF at Windsor, in a C4. The two handicaps he has run since have been in a C2 at Epsom and a C3 at Ascot, on soft. That was his last run and given the ground and class, I am happy to put a line through that. He returns to calmer waters, to rattling quick ground, and in theory there should be more to come. He won on the AW two starts ago and IF it was the ground/class LTO, there is reason to believe he is still in form. Given all that, and his likely progressive profile still, I couldn’t work out his price at 12s. Baffled me. Sometimes when that happens it’s because I have missed something but I don’t know what. The market will no doubt guide… there is an ES qual in this and I won’t second guess those… I think he has a few questions personally (esp stamina) and at the prices would prefer this one, but I have backed both. I suppose he has a fair chunk of weight on his back, and we shall see if he can carry it. But those are the sort of reasons you want a price, and I get it here. Oh and who knows if he will handle the track, again, that’s why we take a price.. he isn’t a 7/2 shot after all.

Oddsocks… 25s? Well he is probably useless but at those odds i’m quite happy to take a punt.. She is 0/2 in flat handicaps and returned last time out after 169 days off. She didn’t run too badly but what drew me in was that this is her first run over 8f and on good to firm. Drops in class, up in trip, change of ground. And in theory she may have needed that first run. Lightly raced. She ticks enough boxes really and with those same eyes we know which horse I should have ‘tipped’ a couple of days back- this one doesn’t have any decent previous form though, but that’s why she is 25/1. The reasons stated give us hope, only that. She is doing plenty differently and we shall see. You know the score…could win, could still be running this time tomorrow. It’s all about price, in the context of that profile, and 25s just seems big to me.

England Expects.. the first of the Burke double, well here’s hoping… his yard is in cracking form so that is a bonus. This one is 0/3,1p in flat handicaps, so again on the lightly raced end of the spectrum. He has a decent jockey on in the context of this race and is doing something different…namely taking a step up in trip. He also takes a big step up in class which is a concern, and why I wanted a decent price.. but it means he gets a light weight and if this turns into a muddy slog up this hill, that could count for plenty. The run at Hamilton in soft suggested the ground should be ‘ok’- it is an unknown but it showed promise for this trip I thought. It isn’t a strong C4 either and most in this race have the odd question to answer. I was happy to have a stab…

High Draw.. an interesting runner and 7s seems a 2/3 points too big to me.. It is the drop in class and drop in distance that lured me in… combined with the fact that he is the only out and out front runner in the race. He has led for a long way over 10f on some recent starts and won a claimer in France two starts back (they are a bit diff to our claimers I think..well, worth a lot more money!) I just want to see what he can do over 8f here and whether they play catch me if you can – and they might not. The Dunlop horse may swoop past late as he looks decent/progressive, maybe a 1-2! But again this one has time on his side and I thought he was worth a go at those odds. Hopefully i’m not needing him to rescue the day!

GL whatever you do with those.

That’s the lot for today.

Josh

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Sound the alarm!! A losing day. I had forgotten what that felt like to an extent, it’s good to be reminded. ES ran well enough.. a neck away from a break even day, an inspired SDS ride (possibly) away from a 16/1 winner (BFSP 32), albeit probably just beat by the more genuine horse! Only -3 points if backing all ES to level stakes, but not to much else to cheer. A few of my ‘confetti’ bets are still running I think, they’ll cross the finish line at some point!

One of you asked me to record a video Preview of Haydock as you are off racing.. unfortunately I don’t think I will have time sadly. Sorry about that. I did have a quick flick through and it looks very trappy, nothing jumped out at me. There are a few stats picks dotted about. I’d bet small in that ground and enjoy the bar!

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I have updated The Key above, with some info on ‘advised jumps strategies’.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

7.10 Sligo – Ri An Rian (25/1<, 16/1< best)

Jockey CD

1.50 Hayd – Punkawallah (any, 9/2< best)

4.20 Hayd – Always Thankful (any odds)

5.00 Bright- Live Dangerously (any 9/1< best)

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

VERY VERY IMPORTANT!! Please Read…

Well, nothing in the racing world or on this blog is ‘very very’ important… but the next couple of weeks, through to the end of August, will be a bit turbulent, for one reason or another..

-Thursday 10th I am heading back to Suffolk for a few days… I’ve had a birthday bash at my parents house every year since I was 16 and I’m trying to keep it going! Thankfully there are still 25-40 who like turning up- and for some it is the only day of the year I see them. So, that will be fun… Friday’s post should be up Thursday evening at some point…. So, no change there. Friday will be a ‘normal day’ for me, so Saturday’s post should all be fine. Sunday’s post is highly likely to be posted Sunday morning, by 11am latest. (i will have a headache!) 🙂

-Now… of more significance… next Wednesday evening I fly to Ibiza through to the early hours of the 24th. A close childhood friend is getting married (yep, i must be getting old!) and it promises to be good fun. I suspect it will be my first and last trip to Ibiza. I’m not much of a ‘clubber’- could you tell?!! (albeit I hear it is a great place anyway,and I may be surprised!)  You won’t notice too much difference… of most importance is that Section 1 will be completed, as it always is… some days it may not be until 10am on the morning of racing. Of course, as a worst case, if you are desperate, you have access to all stats guides above and the Elite Squad list, if you can’t wait! But, i plan to get everything posted in good time, hopefully the evening before. I will keep you posted day by day, as we go. Other than section 1 I do not anticipate any notes etc in section 2. We shall see, maybe I will flick through by the pool!

York Ebor meeting starts as I am about to head home from Ibiza.. you have some notes in the ‘test zone’ in the Key above.. I doubt I will be able to post ‘notes/qualifiers’ etc until the Friday/Sat, but they are there for you to use as you please.

We shall be back to normal from Friday 25th… and then I will have a lot of work to do, as 98% of my mind turns to what I call ‘proper’ racing- bring on those winter Jumpers!

I do plan to try and switch off and I may not even have a bet- In the last year I have had 4 days in Croatia, and 5 days in Italy. This will be my last ‘holiday’ until who knows when- I don’t like taking much time off from Oct-April.

So, all i ask is for some patience and understanding, as things won’t be ‘as normal’ for the next couple of weeks.

Oh, and there won’t be any more videos until I return, all the kit is on my desktop, and i’m not taking that with me! Maybe when I get back I will take suggestions on what kind of content you want to see/would like more of etc etc, and I will see what I can do.

Josh

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From yesterday…

 

FLAT RESULTS UPDATE:

Flat updated to end July.

Analysis

General

To follow

A New Approach? 

A few weeks back our good friend Nick mentioned that he’d started tracking ‘treble rated’ horses and now I have updated the ratings pointers spreadsheet I am able to get a better grip on these. The last update was 6th June so there is now another 8 weeks of data. And it makes for interesting reading.

So, we are looking at horses that have 3 of the red symbols next to their name either a H1/H3, + I1/I3 + G1/G3   (Cricklewood Green and Lucky Clover would be real life examples from section 1 above) 

Those that are ‘treble rated’ but DO NOT include a Top Rated runner (so, one that is H3, I3, G3) since 4th May when Inform Ratings were used…

29 bets / 8 wins / 13 places (inc wins) / +9.5 points early|bog

Those that are ‘treble rated’ but DO Include a Top Rated Runner (some of these below would have been covered in strategy #1 + #2 as per Flat Strategies link in Key)…

57 bets / 18 wins / 30 places (inc wins) +17.4 points early|bog

That takes the total, for all ‘treble rated’ runners to….

86 bets / 26 wins / 43 places (inc wins) /  30% win SR / 50% win|place / +27 early|bog / +10 BFSP

That is a solid enough set of stats and some confidence could be taken with such runners. The win/place % look exciting enough and could provide another ‘way in’ for us all. If those stats can repeat every 86 bets, then we have another solid approach to compliment flat ES. Do with that as you please, any questions etc fire away. I’ll keep track of them in the strategies doc.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Happy 28th Birthday Josh. I’ll toast you on the occasion with a good draught of Malbec……from the Argentine hopefully.

    Thanks for RTP. It’s in a different class to any other racing site and long may it continue. It’s great to find a living doing something you really enjoy. It took me until I was 50 to find a living from something I enjoy doing.

    And you may be pleasantly surprised by Ibiza! Enjoy!

    Patrick

    Patrick 09/08/17 7:07 PM Reply


    • Your too kind Patrick, but glad you are enjoying the ride… yep i’m sure I’ll enjoy Ibiza, i have heard good things and will be taking a relaxed approach to the week.. 2 club nights booked in and a couple of all day pool party events.. which will be enough for me! Pool/beach time for the rest of the trip.
      Enjoy the Malbec!
      Josh

      Josh 10/08/17 10:10 AM Reply


  • have a great birthday. and get some down time we will all still be here when you get back especially with the service you provide. I don’t think anyone would really mind if you didn’t post for a couple of days we all need to recharge because the minute you feel trapped and have to do something it stops being fun.

    warren bottomley 09/08/17 8:01 PM Reply


    • Cheers Warren, yep all about balance.. in fairness while one day I would like a week of no blogging/posting/no racing on the brain, i can get away with doing 30-60 mins and that’s it… just finding time to squeeze it in so that I post in good time etc. If i was a ‘tipster’ I would just stop – but given the approach, esp ES / systems etc, you just know if I stop, and members don’t have time to find quals themselves etc, that there ‘could’ be a shed load more winners! always that fear.. coming back to learn I/you missed out on 10-30 points say is what ensures i have as yet never been away without my lap top!!
      Josh

      Josh 10/08/17 10:13 AM Reply


  • Josh
    Have a very happy birthday and you deserve to have some time off.
    My wife and I went to Ibiza in our sixties and thoroughly enjoyed ourselves. The place is lovely and there’s a lot more than the night scene to enjoy. Thank you for all you do on RTP your work is excellent.

    David Dickinson 10/08/17 8:11 AM Reply


  • Happy birthday Josh, hope you have a good one 🙂

    I’ve decided not to take my laptop to Ibiza, going to try and have a week off. Although taking a tablet and my phone so may have a couple of bets 🙂

    I’m just glad Hudds Town first ever home prem match as been moved to the Sunday (the wedding I’m going to is on the Saturday and would of clashed). Hopefully I will be able to find a nice bar to watch it 🙂

    Gavin 10/08/17 10:00 AM Reply


    • Thanks gents. Much appreciated.

      Josh 10/08/17 11:11 AM Reply


  • I concur with the other comments on here, enjoy your break you more than deserve it after flogging yourself the last few weeks and the number of winners you’ve highlighted in that time has been extraordinary. Think you have some happy campers in here at the moment!

    On today, I live around 20 miles from Brighton and the rain yesterday was biblical, around 12 hours heavy down pour so I cant see it drying out to Good to Firm as per the going prediction, but I could be wrong and maybe the course is quick draining. The South downs is chalk based so that could be the case. Im not sure how much that effects your tip on Spinners Ball. I was quite taken with the ES qualifier, looks to be in form and up in trip with all the previous run descriptions suggesting that a step up could suit. Untested at this level obviously a negative.

    JamesP 10/08/17 10:01 AM Reply


    • ha cheers James… the key is to keep everyone happy when it isn’t such a purple patch! But hopefully most know this game, and it is one of peaks and troughs, and doing well over time! Which is why it’s important never to dive in/blow plenty of funds early on!

      According to the BHA they only had 3mm overnight, and that was updated at 6.45 am… so seems plenty of Firm still about.. the number of non runners.. some above.. would suggest that is the case as plenty of them wanted cut I think. We shall see. Going is a funny old thing. I won’t be putting anyone off the ES qual.. trip prob more of an unknown than he ‘doesn’t stay’ – i wont mind if either of them wins!

      GL

      Josh 10/08/17 10:07 AM Reply


  • Happy Birthday Josh. May your nags run swiftly and your Malbec flow aplenty. (I am more of a Prosecco man myself) Have a good trip also. We still need to catch up sometime when you’re passing through London next.

    nickmazur 10/08/17 10:09 AM Reply


    • Happy birthday Josh enjoy Suffolk and Ibiza. Up for a meet up in London whenever.

      martin colwell 10/08/17 12:45 PM Reply


  • happy birthday josh,have a great time,your work on this site is very much appreciated by myself and all the other members.i have been with you almost from the start and although i do not post very often,i really enjoy the site and all the members comments as well.So go ahead and let your hair down.

    william fieseler 10/08/17 10:26 AM Reply


    • Thanks William,much appreciated. Blimey you are a trooper,from back in the day.. some point in 2014?? Glad I’ve kept you interested all that time 🙂

      Josh 10/08/17 2:04 PM Reply


  • i think in your list of horses there is always something lurking thats got a great chance of winning. for me today karl burkes high draw loks the most intresting selection 8,20 sandown. He producted his best racing post rating here at sandown last year over 1mile 2 furlong off a rating of 83, today with clifford lee 3lb claim he is off a rating of 70. this season he his run four times two runs ago winning an 8k race. Tonight back to one mile class 5 handicap worth 3k. have a nice birthday josh love profit to win great service

    paul 10/08/17 10:32 AM Reply


    • cheers Paul. Yep I think he looks most interesting, along with the Kirk horse.. he has been nibbled at…everything else is looking pretty weak at the moment so it could be a long afternoon, we shall see! Burke’s should try and make all and with any luck builds up a lead the rest cannot get back. GL

      Josh 10/08/17 11:11 AM Reply


  • Happy Birthday josh
    If your stuck for something to do in ibiza, there’s trotting races at the San Rafael hippodrome at weekends lol

    mozzer 10/08/17 11:28 AM Reply


  • just footnote to high draw tonight and my message above, trainer karl burke atr trainers stable in march this year states high i like alot should be a mid eighties handicapper,and its running off 70 tonight paul

    paul 10/08/17 11:48 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    my second day here, backed punkawallah @7/2 excited to see a return on my first bet. Keep them coming.

    dodger 10/08/17 1:59 PM Reply


    • Hi Dodger.. well that is a good start and you did better than me with him haha..I had ground reservations in context of price (thought it was proper soft but appears may only be good to soft so made a balls up there, 4s ok) but if you stay around you’ll come to learn my judgement of horses 4/1 < can be dodgy at times! Fact he was a CD test qual should have maybe seen me have a go. But I'm glad you did. One for the advised strategies also. Do make sure you have a flick through various links in the Key... if you're patient,and don't expect to be retiring this time next week, you'll have a good time. And join the likes of William who have been reading my ramblings since the start. Sounds likes you've had a decent start. Long may it continue. Josh

      Josh 10/08/17 2:09 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Happy Birthday
    Thanks for all the work you put into the stats and systems.
    mick humby

    mick humby 10/08/17 3:33 PM Reply


  • Happy birthday Josh.. thanks for the work as always.. have a few for me

    Cheers
    Kev

    kevhol123 10/08/17 3:41 PM Reply


  • Happy Birthday Josh, have a good one.

    Tim S 10/08/17 5:05 PM Reply


  • Happy birthday Josh – hope it’s a good one!

    Neil 10/08/17 7:11 PM Reply


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