Members Daily Post: 04/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Goodwood

3.00- Masham Star (all hncps+ micro dist) 20/1 UP

 

Thirsk

None.

 

Newmarket (July)

5.55 – Star of Doha (all hncps+micro runs)  ES H3 7/1

7.30 – Mountain Rescue (all hncps) ES H3 I1 5/1

8.30 – Ice Lord (all hncps) ES I3 8/1

 

Bath

6.05 – Silverrica (micro runs) 15/2

 

Musselbrugh

5.40- Canny Style (all hncps + micro age) H1 11/4

6.10 – Baileys Excelerate  (2YO)  5/1

6.45 – Curzon Line (all hncps+ micro TJC) ES H3 I3 G1 10/3

7.20 – Rural Celebration (all hncps+ 3yo+) H3 I3 11/1

 

JUMPS

Bangor 

2.00- Wynford (all hncps) 14,30 I3 11/4 WON 3/1

2.35 –

Foundation Man (hncp chase + micro distance) ES I1 14/1 UP

Strongly Suggested (hncp chase + micro distance) ES I3 12/1 UP

3.10 –

Daulys Anthem (all hncps) 14,30  Evens WON 5/6 

Swaldale Lad (micro class) (micro class)  H3 14/1 UP

4.20-

Londonia (micro class)

G’Day Aussie (all hncps) 10/1 UP

 

 

**

 

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated as of 30/07/17)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: To follow ASAP

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

No ‘tips’ again.. i’m trying to be disciplined on the Flat front – with unexposed/doing something different qualifiers,6/1+, at least until I get that figure above into more positive territory!

(my subjective views.. which you are free to ignore/disagree with…)

Having said that… the one horse who does tick those boxes is Start of Doha… I get the impression our/my day, esp in section 1 above, is going to be dependent on performance at the July course, with the ES quals.

Star of Doha is still in the ‘could be anything’ category, second run in a handicaps. She moves up in trip- so is doing something different- the niggle is that she went backwards over 10f the last day-when stepping one up in trip I like to see them closing/finishing off their races, having been outpaced etc. There is a stamina niggle, but only that- breeding suggests well worth a go and the trainer clearly thinks it may suit. The break suggests they may have found an issue also, or tinkered with something, unless they were waiting for cut in the ground. She has nearly been off 60 days and Beckett is 5/25,11p with such runners in C5 turf handicaps. I only mention these ES horses as I personally like to take a view- if I like the price (ie not overly short-which for ES for me is under 7/2 I suppose-trusting in the stats..my subjective judgement at that end is poor!) – as to whether or not to be more confident. This is the type of profile I may have a tad more on… poor bugger, her chance is done for now…

Mountain Rescue looks worth some misplaced confidence also- drops in class (doing something different) into C4, the only level he has won at. Only 1/8,2p in turf handicaps, trainer 2/12,5p last 14 days and will appreciate this better ground. There is some soft in there,but plenty of good, and they are not expecting rain. He has stayed further in the past, and may well try and make all. In any case will be in the first 2 or 3 as they race is run. We shall see if he can stay up there. The final piece was the booking of the Doyler… he is 4/10,5p when riding for Chris Wall. Interesting. All that together makes me a tad more bullish on this one…

Ice Lord- may be the weakest of the three (we know what happens now!) and I have backed him- he is a decent priced flat ES qual after all- he does drop in trip and class, interesting. His two career wins have been over 6f and this is the first time this season he runs over this trip. While I am not one to be scared of other horses- i am a bit afraid of that Noseda Beast! And as such I had a rare EW bet for me. We shall see. Reasons to be hopeful.

**

Those three really do look like the most interesting, at the prices, to my dodgy eyes at least, from section 1.

Curzon Line will try and make all in the 6.45 hopefully, or be up there. In form and ES qual, 7/2, he will get some support from me. I can’t help but notice his massive GG speed figure in here, which while I have a couple of niggles, esp his mark, has ensured I don’t leave him alone. I’ll trust the figures. This isn’t the strongest of races.

Silverrica- I have eyes on her.. she is now below her last winning mark and WILL win again at Bath at some point. Maybe today, maybe this season, maybe next. The trainer stat (micro runs) is very strong here- she runs on softer ground- and is 2/7,4p when running with soft in the going. She is versatile but may handle this better than most. She is 0/7,2p over the 5f here, better at further, but the going may slow them all down. Well drawn to get a handy position. She is handicapped to go well and while not as bullish as with some of those above, at 7s, I may throw something at her- not as much as the ES above, but she is one to watch. She does just look out of form, but you never know. She is 0/11,3p in handicaps when sent off bigger than 8/1, so the market ‘could’ be informative.

Rural Celebration – hmmm.. causing me a bit of a headache- that last run was awful, but if the ground stays good here it may help. He is very well drawn and can front run- that is what caught my eye, and the fact the visor returns (doing something different! yep, that record is well and truly broken) – in theory he could get out and bag the rail which is a massive positive- could be worth a small EW wager at 11s. Could just be out of sorts but ran well two starts ago.

**

Jumps.. the two ES quals for Jonjo have major stamina questions for me, albeit Strongly Suggested has never run over this far.. but you are asking two 10 year olds to do something different. That view personally affects how much I will have on- my head says they cant won’t win if I am being honest but I have been left red faced many a time, and I don’t want you battering down my door after a 12/1 jumps ES qual romps home after I tried to put you off 🙂 I would say this- for me you should be having more on the 3 flat ES quals than the two jumps ones – they do not have equal chances on my reading, but that is just me. I have just jumped off the fence there.. that statement may come back and give me nightmares, but I thought it, so I have said it! If in doubt trust the ES

**

That’s it for section 1… elsewhere…

Galway.. I will just mention On Fiddlers Green in the 6.15.. quals on couple De Bromhead angles… this horse looks progressive, won this race last year, and just missed out on getting the Plate. He races prominently, jumps well – touch wood- and Russel is 4/6,5p on him… I think he looks the most likely winner.. 9/2, 5/1 was probably ok, i am not so sure about 7/2, but if you were looking at the races, tempted to get involved, those are my thoughts. I can see why he is being well punted. He should be fine with this big weight and there looks to be plenty of dross in this race. If he edges back out in price a tad I may have a go, but I have got many a 7/2, 4/1 shot wrong and hope he dots up again.

 

Goodwood… from the VIDEO, if you don’t wish to watch/don’t have the time.. my ‘i am going racing’ eyes.. (where I disregard my own ‘price rules’ really,and the fact that there are many races I wouldn’t usually play in..) focused on… these are not ‘tips’, brief thoughts, for you to use in your own analysis of the race… 🙂 

R1 – Lord Yeats

R2 Forest Ranger – small EW (but now only 2 places, so small win bet)

R3 – G K Chesterton / Blair House / Masham Star

R4 – Profitable

R5 – Holy Tiber / Gift In Time

R 6 – Sainted / Tomyris / Perfect Angel (pref for the first 2, stamina niggle latter but interesting)

R 7 – Me Too Nagasaki (who is now a non runner) (so just a focus on the Johnston battalion albeit fact he fires more than 2 darts doesn’t fill me with confidence – Londinum we know handles the ground, may follow up his win here couple days ago)

Do with that as you pleas

**

That is the lot, i’d avoid backing any of those just on my say so… the joy with this approach, i think, is choice. If you are rushed for time etc you can just follow the Flat ES quals as a foundation. If you have time to flick through/digest everything, then great, there is plenty to dive into! Bet small, have some fun, build up over time. We could be just coming to the end of a mad peak (last 5 weeks have been ridiculous) so some caution… but we will try and keep it going for as long as possible. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Research in the Key above…

C Appleby C2 (any odds)

3.00 Good – GK Chesterton / Blair House

Irish Angles

6.15 Galway  – Full Cry / On Fiddlers Green / Riviera Sun / Show And Go (all any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

GALWAY 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

 

**

Goodwood

Micros 

The one winner so far had proven form in heavy, most of the others have floundered so we shall see how these goes, some caution may be advised given this meeting has never been run on such ground in recent history…

3.00- Masham Star (m3)

4.10 – Branscombe (m1+2)

5.15 – Star Of The East (m1)

 

‘Notes’ (starting points…)

1.50 – Poets Word (7/2<)

2.25 –

Beat The Bank (12/1<) (all wins in handicaps so far,due a non-hncp one)

Zainhon (7/2<)

3.00- Here Comes When (12/1<)

4.10- Carouse (12/1<)

5.15 –

Shymkent (MJ, ascot LTO)(must have been a long day, he is not trained by Johnston!!) 

Bear Valley (as above)

 

*

Galway 

The Mullins angles have done well, one for De Bromhead in Plate, other than that, no other ‘biggies’ as yet…

Notes (starting points)

5.10-

Golden Spear (9/2<)

Tay Lane

6.15 –

Any De Bromhead , 16/1<

Phils Magic (9/2<)

Baily Moon (mouse m) (late addition)

 

6.50 –

Whisky Sour (5/1< a pos)

Any Martin runner, 16/1<  (The Moore Factor hits age stat)

Tara Dylan

8.25 –

Renneti (5/1< a pos)

Digeanta (5/1 a pos)

Ted Vale (16/1<)

**

GOODWOOD DAY 4 VIDEO: On it’s way….

Oh another one! As requested by James… view these as starting points/added info.. ‘going’ has been the main way in- a few races where some just leap off the page as proven in soft+ , but then again plenty have never raced of it.. a bit of trainer form, the odd stat etc… it is quite brief, I could easily do 30 minutes on one race, I will do at some point. Anyway, buckle up, get the pins out, and press play 🙂  The horses mentioned are not ‘tips’ and if you are planning on betting in any of the races/horses, please do take a closer look. I’m going to have a blowout in one of these videos soon… 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    Kept below the parapet lately.

    MJ’s micro qual Masham Star is also (All hc’s, micro dist)

    B 4.20 – G’Day Aussie (All Hc’s)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 03/08/17 6:26 PM Reply


    • cheers.. I just haven’t bothered typing up the Goodwood notes there! He was on notepad, missed the Ellison one completely. Thanks

      Josh 03/08/17 6:37 PM Reply


  • hi josh just joined alot of information for a reasonable monthly fee, just hoping i can pick the wheat from the chaff . Any advice for a newcomer to you website many thanks paul

    paul 03/08/17 7:20 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul,

      Many thanks for diving in..

      Do read the welcome email/note, a link to which is in the key. That is describes the general thrust and a few specifics.

      I would then focus on the flat advised strategies, have a flick through those results, as per the link in Key. Those horses with a purple ES next to their name.
      The jumps cousins ES are on -2, just about to tick into gear hopefully, same criteria as per the flat ES report above.

      In general the shorter priced horses, certainly under 3/1, 4/1, pay for themselves, will just lose over time.. (outside of the strategies) – and long term success generally comes in the 6/1+ range I find, and the decent priced winners make the difference.

      Then a case of diving into the rest, as you please- idea is all the info used as starting points- you do have to live with a ‘fear of missing out’ – I miss plenty of winners- but I am happy with those I find and if I can cheer some home and my bank grows over time i am happy. The profit can tend to come in spikes mind.

      I would advise starting small – many a member has fun for £2.50, £5 bets, and building up — all horses posted against said stats can be seen as starting points and a way in, which you can then apply your own judgement to if you wish. DO NOT back all horses in section one- that is not the way forward!

      Just take your time- there is a trial for a reason and i think the fees are reasonable, it allows flexibility and you to dip in and out etc. I would say the elite squad should give a solid foundation on which to build.

      Hope that all makes sense. Always here to answer any questions etc, never hold back!
      Josh

      Josh 03/08/17 7:29 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Here Comes When a non runner.

    David Dickinson 03/08/17 9:18 PM Reply


  • great info again Josh. thank you

    kevin 04/08/17 9:42 AM Reply


    • Cheers Kevin, decent info the aim.. and with any luck a few winners today, I have a good feeling.. gulp. Good luck.

      Josh 04/08/17 10:08 AM Reply


  • Hi Goodwood 15:35 Profitable is GG’s S.o.D.

    Solent 04/08/17 10:25 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh

    With regards to your most enjoyable video’s, It would good if you can pick one race a day and do a proper in depths look at it (if you have time that is). It’s good to watch and listen to someone else’s views and how they go about it. I do have a good idea on how you do approach things but I think, I/we (members) still will defo benefit from it as we are always learning in this game 🙂

    My ITV pick 7 for today

    1.50 – Lord Yards
    2.00 – Wynford
    2.10 – Silver Starlight
    2.25 – Forest Ranger
    2.35 – The Clock Leary
    3.00 – GK Chesterton
    3.35 – Profitable

    GL all for today

    Gav

    Gavin 04/08/17 11:41 AM Reply


    • Hi Gavin,

      I won’t be committing to doing one video a day haha- albeit that is said with this week’s mindset, and it’s nearly felt as busy as Festival week what with Goodwood + Galway… there are three more regular ‘in depth’ options.. 1. when I attack a race with trends/stats, albeit watching me do the research is a certain niche! Applying it more fun maybe 2. 3m+ handicap chases, of which there will be plenty of those come October onwards. 3. going through the qualifiers in section 1, and expanding on what I am looking for. I should also do a ‘betting journey’ /educational one maybe, in terms of how I look at a race..
      importantly there has to be a ‘way in’ – and I have 4… 1. the stats in section 1, 2. any other stats/big meeting notes as per three 3. big race trends/stats shortlist . 4. 3m+ handicap chase- these chases are the only race type that I ever ‘attack cold’, unless trundling through a card in videos as above. The odd notebook horse, or profile horse would be another.
      Having the starting point is key, whatever that may be, usually stats related – Nick, for example, uses ‘hot form’ very well as a starting point/way in.

      They are easy enough for me to record- but some others may just need some more thought before I press play, so that I am saying something useful/succinct etc.

      Josh

      Josh 04/08/17 11:50 AM Reply


      • I thought you might end up doing a 2nd one today for Musselburgh 😉

        nickmazur 04/08/17 11:58 AM Reply


      • Fair do’s Josh, what ever you deiced I know I will enjoy 🙂

        Gavin 04/08/17 12:14 PM Reply


        • Oh well there will be videos on all of the above at some point! When jumping is back, 3 meetings a day, no evening meetings, etc – i’m sure there will be plenty – I just feel shattered as I type! The coffee isn’t having an impact.
          I just don’t like to make promises I will break- and 1 video a day is one such promise!
          I could do a Q and A also, request racing questions etc. That could be fun, and scary in equal measure.
          Josh

          Josh 04/08/17 12:17 PM Reply


          • Josh there is only so mush you can do with out me trying to add more on to your work load lol and with what you charge us members, you totally over deliver 🙂 I’ve just really enjoyed this week watching the videos with a cup of tea 🙂

            Yeah a Q&A would very interesting

            Gav

            Gavin 04/08/17 2:22 PM Reply


    • Yeah i like the sound of that , enjoying the video slots ….. But Josh , change your phones ring tone mate ! 🙂 🙂

      joners 04/08/17 11:50 AM Reply


      • haha- i don’t receive many phone calls! any suggestions??

        How was Stratford? I don’t think it rained and hope you may have had a nibble on Commance C? couple of shorties went in as expected, one EW poke placed I think… any luck? Or your time mainly spent in the bar…
        Josh

        Josh 04/08/17 11:58 AM Reply


        • We had a box , so due to the lack of opportunities (gambling wise) once C.C won i “drew” stumps and never left the free bar … Thanks again for your invaluable input

          joners 04/08/17 12:32 PM Reply


          • Sounds like a good day to me!

            Josh 04/08/17 12:37 PM Reply


        • Thanks for the video Josh. This week has been hard what with the weather and Galway as well and the usual volume of meetings and having a new puppy (that the two other dogs are blanking!). Not the best week to return to full time punting. Still the football season kicks off otday with the Lions away to Forest.

          At Goodwood today I like a few but not for big bets. I will post on the free post.

          Good luck

          martin colwell 04/08/17 1:10 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Just a quick one, 8.50 muss LUV U ALWAYS. Heard of this post a while ago about runners placed at Southwell one or two runs previous that placed… Seem to run well at Musselburgh? Is this true anyone?

    jarrodholmes68 04/08/17 6:52 PM Reply


  • In the Stewards Cup one that might be flying under the radar is Shanghai Glory. Charlie Hills wouldn’t run him in this after his terrible run at Ascot if be wasn’t showing something at home. He’s 16/1 so the bookies are not taking liberties with him.
    Any thoughts?

    David Dickinson 05/08/17 9:38 AM Reply


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