Members Daily Post: 03/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Goodwood

4.45 – Ann Without Ann E (2YO) 25/1 UP

 

Notts

4.30 –

Azzir (all hncps) 14  H1 I3 G3 9/4 UP

Deinonychus (micro class)  H3 I1 G1 3/1 WON 11/4 

5.05 – Casterbridge (3yo+, + micro TJC) 5/1

 

Ffos Las

7.15 – Bonjour Steve (all hncps)  G3 9/1

8.15 – St Marys (all hncps+ micro class) ES G1 I1  3/1

8.45 – Celerity (micro dist) H3 6/1

 

Epsom

6.25 – Ya Jammeel (all hncps) H1 I3 G3 2/1

7.30 – Settle Petal (3yo+) 16/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Stratford 

1.30- Go On Henry (hncp chase)  I3 10/1 UP

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**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated as of 30/07/17)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: To follow ASAP

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>> | C Appleby/York Ebor: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

 

No Tips again, nothing hitting my test criteria… unexposed/doing something different/6/1+

Notes…

It looks a trappy day… Ann Without An E could be anything and while Channon isn’t prolific with 1st time out 2 year olds this is one of the tracks he targets. They are usually fancied well enough but in this ground, when upsets are happening in most races it seems, I won’t be able to resist change on the machine at BFSP. You just never know and at that price, given the ground, I won’t over think it. Could win, could tail off. Not one to go mad on.

Bonjour Steve- looked interesting at 9s for small interest to me anyway- he is well exposed and is probably a C5 handicapper at best…but in soft ground 6f handicaps he is 1/7,4 places, one of those in a C4. His two C4 runs in such conditions were off OR70 and 66. He is 5lb lower again than the last day, and most horses in this race have a question or two to answer now. I suspect he may find one or two too good, but at 9s, for 1/4 point or something, I may have a nibble. At least he is fit and is running ok. Soft looks ideal.

St Mary’s- well a ES pick so not much thought there- her speed figures are big in this compared to the others- takes a step up in trip… if running her best and staying she probably decimates this lot, it is a weak race. Her recent form nags at me and she may be too short for some. With any luck she keeps the flat ES ticking over.

I will mention Go On Henry as I touched on him in the video below..not a race or a horse to go mad on- as yet hasn’t won, but he ran well after a break here LTO and the hope is that he can build on it. He may ‘bounce’ – returning after a long break, then running again soon after- but you don’t know if they will do that until you run them! I couldn’t put you off an EW wager, and with any luck he runs his race.

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I am conscious during weeks like this there is plenty going on… we don’t have Goodwood/Galway every week at least ! That probably would be too much. But my approach is all about choice- there are advised strategies (Flat ES being the best) you can just follow/stick to if short on time. They are the foundation.  You then have the freedom to dip into everything else as and when, or not at all. (just following the Johnston Goodwood Micros will hopefully pay with any luck as well)  The fun/profit is generally in the decent priced, 9/2+, horses and getting into the habit of looking at bigger prices first, and avoiding ‘shorties’ is one of the hardest challenges of the lot. As is realising that we all will miss winners with this approach.(not ES though!)  If we can crack that, but be content with the winners we do find/general direction of travel, we should have some fun, long term. My personal drive is trying to solve the  puzzle and to improve as a punter over time. Slowly but surely we are getting there. 

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NEW!! My latest monthly article for The Betting Insiders Club (which they allow me to share with members,an added bonus) can be read HERE>>>> 

(a look at Charlie Appleby, and the York Ebor meeting)

**

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

1.40 Gal – Just Cause (any odds, 12/1< best, inc 66/1 winner) UP

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

GALWAY 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

**

Goodwood

MICROS (Johnston)

1.50 – Morning Suit (m1+3) UP Monticello UP (m2+3)

4.10 – Poetic Steps UP/ Poets Prince UP / Starlight Mystery UP (all m2)

 

Notes (quals against report above)

(any Hannon horse 9/2< SP..)

2.25 – Dubka (7/2<) DNQ

3.00- Cardsharp (non hncp track last time out) UP

3.35 –

Blond Me (12/1< ) DNQ

Queens Trust (7/2<) DNQ

So Mi Dar UP

Shutter Speed

4.10-

Chai Chai (12/1<) DNQ

5.20- Fair Cop (12/1<)

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Galway 

1.40- Just Cause UP

2.50 –

Clonard Street (16/1< a pos) UP

Beau Et Sublime (16/1< pos) UP

4.00-

Robin Des Ford 2nd

Lac Kivu UP

4.35 –

All of W Mullins (all hurdle/NHF prof blind,dont think they hit any other positives…) 3rd, rest UP

Thomas Edison UP

Oruna (16/1< best) DNQ

Princely Conn

5.15 –

The Invisible Dog (16/1<)

Repare Mon

Nulife

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**

Stratford > ‘through the card’ video:

Tony, a member, is off to the races and asked me to have a look through which I was happy to do. It is mediocre fare and I’d probably only back most of these if I were at the track! Lots of C5 dross and inconsistent beasts, and plenty of well fancied ones… (and some rain around, super!) 

Oh, and the first 10 minutes is spent responding to one of the more bizarre emails I’ve received… you can skip that if you wish, or you may find it of interest esp if you’re new-ish, you can’t please all the people all the time… 

 

 

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Galway Hurdle

Last year we experimented looking at handicap hurdles from a stats/trends perspective. I always had done at Chelts/Aintree with some success, but never the big races through the season, tending to focus on chases. But, this winter, if there is a big Saturday handicap hurdle I will provide stats/trends/shortlist for members only, if there are any. We nearly found a 50/1 winner when last playing in Ireland, so let’s get stuck into this one…

Stats/trends

2+ wins right handed

7+ runs RH

7+ runners LTO

Not a chase LTO

Ran in 3yo+ or 4yo+ race LTO

Top 9 LTO

Not 7lb claimer

There are some odd stats in there but the negative 0/x stats are ok. Not the strongest trends race in the world, and caution advised, but in pursuit of 9 winners in a row for big race shortlists (ok ok Dark Red doesn’t count) let’s try…

Shortlist: Western Boy / Airlie Beach / Princely Conn / Thomas Edison / Plinth 

6+7 year olds are a big positive, so ticks for AB and Plinth. A lack of a run in 90 days is a fair old neg, so question fro WB. Thomas Edison won this before and looks a bit up against it on his OR, but you never know.  My main punting eyes would be drawn to AB, PC, Plinth… I won’t be going mad, and won’t ‘tip’.  Use/abuse/ignore that shortlist in any way you please! I will throw some £5s around I suspect.

**

 

That’s the lot today  on here.

Good luck with any bets/however you engage in today’s content.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Josh

    4:10 fair cop? Am i going blind? I cant see it…..

    Darren 02/08/17 8:51 PM Reply


    • 5.20 !! Wrong race. It’s getting late 🙂

      Josh 02/08/17 8:56 PM Reply


  • Fair dos

    Darren 02/08/17 9:02 PM Reply


  • Fair Cop is 17:20 mate not 16:10

    nickmazur 02/08/17 9:24 PM Reply


    • NM lol

      nickmazur 02/08/17 9:26 PM Reply


  • Thank you for taking the time and effort Josh ….. Very much appreciated

    joners 03/08/17 6:29 AM Reply


    • No problem… not a card to go mad on and if the heavens open it could cause carnage. But, with any luck a few of those go well- definitely a day for socialising/drinking beer, any winners a bonus! 🙂 Have fun.

      Josh 03/08/17 8:06 AM Reply


  • first day 😉

    hugely informative, thanks indeed

    kevin 03/08/17 10:32 AM Reply


    • Welcome Kevin, I hope you enjoy the trial.. we (collective,me + comments etc) do informative quite well I think, any luck you have a fun and profitable time! take some time to immerse- there is a lot to flick through, but easy enough once getting hang of how we do things.
      Any questions, you know where to find me!
      GL
      Josh

      Josh 03/08/17 10:41 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    No you can’t please every one, but the mind does boggles after a cracking day again yesterday :-/

    Anyway thought I post up my itv pick 7 for today over past couple of day’s just miss out on the place part of a fun 7 acca £1 e/w bet I stick on it too 😀

    1:50 Goodwood – Good Omen

    2:25 Goodwood – Dubka

    2:35 Stratford – Shining Romeo

    2:50 Galway – Clonard Street

    3:00 Goodwood – Cardsharp

    3:10 Stratford – Fair To Middling

    3:35 Goodwood – So Mi Dar

    GL for today

    Gavin 03/08/17 10:33 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    regarding those last 8 winners trends/stats, well done by the way, was wondering what a £1 rolling acca on the first 7 would have been, pretty big should think! can you check it please? i will do the next set of up to 7 @ 25p to begin with, that £1 acca on the 7 interests me

    pendrem 03/08/17 10:47 AM Reply


    • hmm no idea but I wouldn’t advise it for big stakes! We have just been very lucky, the shortlist won’t keep finding winners, due a slump now.
      Well the winners from memory 20/1 (bunbury) 20/1 (or 16s, Stewards) 50/1 (International, 137 BFSP) 14/1 (skybetD) 18/1 (Dark Red,paid online books,not anyway else, DQ) 12/1 (summer plate winner) 7/1 (galway plate) and I counted Uttoxeter in that ‘9 winners in a row’ i think, albeit not sure if that is technically correct, he was 12s.
      I’m sure you can do the maths 🙂

      Josh 03/08/17 10:55 AM Reply


  • further to above, mean £1 on all first leg, then divide winnings by number on shortlist for legs 2 to 7, BFSP WILL BE MY WAY

    pendrem 03/08/17 10:49 AM Reply


    • odd above, shortlists were 4 or 5 generally. I ‘ll leave it to you to work out 🙂

      Josh 03/08/17 10:55 AM Reply


  • Josh
    Your emailer must have won his subs for the year if he followed the horses you put up and the reasoning behind them. I’m over the ton and to smaller stakes too. No need for lumping on, the bank is going along nicely. Cannot fathom him.

    David Dickinson 03/08/17 11:23 AM Reply


    • Strange, I have a feeling he may just have stopped reading for a month! 🙂 it’s the only explanation I can think of… wasn’t a new members either, been here for 6 months- so, was fully up to speed with how we do things here etc, and he had been through one purple patch at Festival/Aintree. Odd. Never mind. Onto today!
      Can have plenty of fun with small bets in this game, esp when in general there are no odds caps!
      GL today
      Josh

      Josh 03/08/17 11:27 AM Reply


  • Princely Conn non runner in Galway Hurdle.

    David Dickinson 03/08/17 11:40 AM Reply


  • hi josh

    i have done maths for 5 races and got to £34,137 ! starting from just £1 win on 5 for race 1, total staked £5, i will be starting with 25p rolling 7 accas, will update where gets to when gets interesting

    pendrem 03/08/17 11:45 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Really enjoying your whole meeting videos. Hope there will be more of them to come.

    Mike C 03/08/17 12:49 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, many thanks, much appreciated- yep doing them ‘cold’ if I flick through races not to bother with, focus on odd better race, should be able to do them in 20-30 mins tops.
      Wont be doing one every day but I have the capacity…
      Will attempt to do more ‘going through section 1’ also. dont want to burn myself out on flat/summer jumps either- much more fun will be had from October onwards!
      Josh

      Josh 03/08/17 1:28 PM Reply


  • Hi josh,

    As I’m at work I won’t be able to listen to the video, any chance you could jot down the ones you’ve picked out on the stratford card please?

    thisisjonnoo 03/08/17 1:18 PM Reply


    • I personally wouldn’t bother if you haven’t had time to use my thoughts as starting point/are not going to the track but…
      R1 Go on henry EW, fav looked interesting, Kerry Lee danger (so, that’s the top 3 in market covered!!)
      R2 – pass
      R3 – Shining Romeo. If no rain and actually ‘good’ (think there is soft Commanche C interesting- pref for former,looks more interesting 4s
      R4 – hmmm.. tentative Fair To Middling EW (a definite ‘at the races’ race!)
      R5 – The Trigger probably wins, Fled or Pled for at the races EW change
      R6- was hoping for money for Mccools Gold- but none coming- fav is odds on- prob former EW if I was at track, or small win bet
      R7 thought Guerilla tactics ‘could’ try and make all- drifting as if he has lost a leg!! Cougars Gold another strong fav, Starlit Night good on Inform ratings, but may not want any rain!

      A confusing card, not one to go mad on… i’m not expectant but hopefully one or two run well. Races 1 + 3 would be main hopes of a run for money maybe.

      Josh 03/08/17 1:27 PM Reply


  • If you aren’t too busy Josh I’m off to Goodwood tomorrow if you fancy doing another run through the card.

    having a great festival so far behind my computer but may be a bit different at the track after a few ales! so any help would be appricated

    JamesP 03/08/17 7:07 PM Reply


    • Hi James, I may not have time for one reason or another. but I don’t like to disappoint. Let me see what I can do..may be more brief – ha, who am I kidding- you’ll know by 9 ish if there is anything.

      Josh 03/08/17 7:11 PM Reply


      • No problem can imagine your quite pushed for time and probably shattered with so much racing on! If not I’ll have to rely on my wits and not go too crazy

        JamesP 03/08/17 7:33 PM Reply


        • Just posted.. I almost feel as drained as Festival week haha- but I think that is mainly as I am still not over a busy weekend! Age is catching up 🙂

          Josh 03/08/17 9:49 PM Reply


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