Members Daily Post: 02/08/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Goodwood

1.50 –

Star Rider (all hncps) G3  10/1 UP

Aurora Gray (all hncps) 11/1 2nd

Cools Sky (all hncps + micro runs) 25/1 WON 25/1, 39.00 BFSP 

4.45 –

Titi Makfi (all hncps) 14 H3 8/1 2nd 

Mistime (all hncps) 14 20/1

La Casa Tarifa (all hncps, + micro TJC) 14 16/1 UP

Sagely (3yo+) 16/1

5.50 –

Boy In The Bar (all hncps) I3 16/1

Pastoral Player (all hncps) 22/1

 

Redcar

2.00 – Arctic Treasure (2YO) ES  16/1 UP 

6.05 – Ingleby Spring (4yo+, + micro distance+runs) 7/1

 

Sandown

7.25 –

See The Master (micro class) 14,30 H1 G3 7/4

Maths Prize (micro age) H3 I3 I1  9/4

 

Leicester

None.

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Perth

2.50 – Muwalla (all hncps, + micro going) 14,30 H3 I1 11/4 UP

4.00- Tangolan (all hncps) ES 7/1 UP

5.10 –

Solway Prince (all hncps+hncp hurdle+micro runs+going) 14,30 H1 I1 8/1

Solway Trigger (all hncps+hncp hurdle+micro runs+going) 14,30 16/1

5.40 – Lafterlands (NHF) 11/2

**

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated as of 30/07/17)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: To follow ASAP

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

NO ‘tips’

Some more notes,which have been doing ok in the last couple of days, pointing to a handful of winners and with any luck not putting you off others,that may have hacked up!

I have just recorded a video preview for Goodwood, a ‘quick’ run through the card 🙂 (on free post< i wont repeat it here)

Star Rider looks worth a go to me having won the race last year,only proven stayer in race that I could see. Aurora Grey also, as the step up in trip could unlock more. It could not, but ‘doing something different’ and Morrison a dab hand in these staying races. Ground is an unknown, they are due plenty of rain.

There are then plenty of Johnston horses both above and below- recent form/profiles etc etc can mean sod all with his here, winners at all prices. So, best not over think them.. ground if turning soft/heavy is a question for many a horse on today’s card, some you just don’t know until they try it. In that scenario you want a price, you get it with plenty of his today. Mistime has placed on soft/heavy, just the 300+ days to overcome!

The C Appleby angle below is worth following, 13/2 winner from first of those posted couple days back..well,worth keeping an eye on. I will post the research piece tomorrow. Enough going on today.

Redcar… a rare ES qual for 1st time 2 year olds (Hannon at Sandown the only other I think) – no point in over thinking that one!! You back all such horses of his here, over time, we will do ok. Jockey booking suggest second string, not strong in market,and plenty with experience in here – that may affect my own personal staking amount but I will have something on.

Perth…

Not much I can say to put you off many of those, not that I would want to. Tangolan could win again for sure, and has 4 front runners to sit behind and pick up the pieces, only 3lb higher than win here couple starts back. Looks a competitive race but no reason why he shouldn’t get involved. 13/2 decent enough.

Solway Prince could make all again, albeit bigger field/stronger race, but 8s seems big. Harrison is prob worth backing blind here with her quals… her stats were very close to Elite Squad territory but I was strict with interpretation. She will be in it next year no doubt, good profits already this season. Solway Trigger… well this is a poor race and while is a maiden still, at least he comes here on the back of a decent run LTO. One of his better runs was over CD as well- I expect him to be tailed off, but at 16s, I can’t say he won’t be in the mix- just because most in here have a few questions to answer and the yard is in cracking form.

So, a few of interest.

Days like yesterday don’t happen too often,albeit it has been a good few weeks and the Flat ES is putting plenty of bread on the table 🙂 (and beer in the glass!) Stay consistent, keep it fun, and keep those eyes fixed on the long term. A steady, consistent pace wins the marathon. (as it does horse races)

Let’s roll….

(Galway Plate thoughts will be on free post)

 

Posted a comment below of some interest maybe.. esp Jumps Elite Squad, to note.. down there as not to clog up this post…

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

C Appleby (any odds, 13/2< best)

4.45 Good – Skiffle UP

Irish Angles 

(all below any odds…)

5.35 Galway – I think all of HDB horses…

Balko Des Flos / Deans Road / Devils Bride / Heron Heights / Marinero / Heron Heights / Sadlers Risk

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

GALWAY 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

**

 

Galway Day 3:

‘Quals against notes’ 

3.15 –

Castello Sforza  14,30  3rd 

Minella Beau  14,30 WON 5/4 

5.00 – Exchange Rate  14,30  WON 7/2 

5.35 – All of De Bromheads (0/8,0p bigger than 16/1 SP at meeting,5 years)

7.20 –

Inis Meain (20/1< best on general trainer odds record…0/100+ bigger sp)

Wood Breizh (5/1< best, bigger fine!)  14,30

Mydor (16/1<)

 

 

**

Goodwood Day 4: 

Micro Systems

2.25 – Londinium WON 10/1>9/1 / Sofias Rock (micro 3) UP

4.45 – La Casa Tarifa (m 1,3) UP / Mistime (m1,2,3)

 

‘Quals against notes’ 

4.10- Lamya (9/2 < ) NR

4.45 – Ebbesbourne (7/2<)

5.50 – War Glory (9/2<)

 

*general point about the meeting after day 1.. Varian’s are flying and I do like ‘in meeting form’ – his are clearly going well. Balding had a couple run well, and Appleyby’s string are in good form,but yet to have a winner. Those could be some yards to watch moving forward, or in any case their runners, esp Varian, may be worth a second glance. 

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • very nice day yesterday just over 50pts up now +257.96 pts, nice surprise when i got home yesterday and watched recording of goodwood not knowing results 1st race Dark Red 16-1 £2ew (skybet paid fpp), 2nd race Expert Eye 2-1 £5 win free bet,3rd Breton Rock 50-1 £1 ew,4th Stradivarius 9-1 £2-50 ew free bet, guess who didn’t have any multiples 🙂 but fun bank £150 up ,that will do nicely.

    martin whittle 01/08/17 9:24 PM Reply


  • Cool Run girl pops her head up again at Redcar in the 4.55

    warren bottomley 01/08/17 9:32 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, so she does. I may have to have one last nibble at that price- I wouldn’t be expectant- no idea what went wrong the last day, effectively pulled up, jockey looking down- not sure if that was her running or what.But anyway, the bottom of the cliff edges nearer- maybe that Hamilton run was a flash in the pan. Bit of cut may help at least, softest ground she has faced sine Hamilton. Clutching at straws there maybe.

      Josh 01/08/17 9:37 PM Reply


      • According to the sporting life comment the saddle slipped last time out. So maybe a tiny bit of of loose change to throw at mr bookmaker

        warren bottomley 01/08/17 9:56 PM Reply


  • Well bugger… I think Tuesday was a milestone… first time a members post has hit the 10 winner mark for the day… 9/2,13/8,11/1,7/2,4/1,8/1,7/1,5/1,9/2, 8/1… plus 20/1 ‘winner’ DQ (online books paid) of 1.50 on free post. Trends/stats ‘working’ again.

    I don’t expect you backed all of those but fingers crossed you backed a few/came out ahead for the day, which is the main thing. A bit of door knocking as well, esp mr Hogan at Galway,all his ran with credit at a price.
    It’s now time for Mr Johnston to come to the Goodwood party, buckle up! 🙂

    Jumps ELITE SQUAD.. I will update but after an iffy start they are now 6/43, 15 places (inc wins) -1.55 .. slowly getting there- they will be fine long term, logic/quality of research, is exactly the same as Flat.

    I have updated the Flat Advised strategies running totals above in the Key.

    Onto Wednesday…

    (i’ve got plenty of results spreadsheets updating to do, I owe Nick/everyone some updated ratings pointers spreadsheets etc etc. That will be done Wednesday, albeit I said that about Mon/Tue this week… another slap on the wrists)

    Josh

    Josh 01/08/17 9:32 PM Reply


  • Fantastic day but still gutted that I had Dark red twice at bfsp cost me £300,still shouldn’t be gready.I do follow Gary Priestley and he’s a fantastic tipster but I didn’t agree with his comment that he doesn’t recommend using betfair,you try and get a few quid on a 30/1 shot the night before and if it wins see how long your account lasts unrestricted

    christopher jones 01/08/17 9:54 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, on my filter of the Galway stats I also have My Painter in the 3.50 (Denis Hogan, 8th in weights or lower). Am I seeing things this late at night?

    martin colwell 01/08/17 10:56 PM Reply


    • hi Martin, that is a jumps/NH race, Hogan’s stats only focus on his Flat runners.. I won’t have found anything of note with his NH runners here, but we know what happens now!! So yea the age/weight stat was as a subset of the initial flat stat.
      Josh

      Josh 02/08/17 7:17 AM Reply


      • Ok thanks Josh, I will have to back it now anyway as I have mentioned it. My filter at Galway has the Mullins two in the 3.15; Balka Des Flos, 5.35 Go and Mydor, 7.20. Tuesday brought 3 places at 20/1, 16/1 and 8/1, a loser and a non runner. So not bad.

        martin colwell 02/08/17 8:38 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh , congrats on a fantastic day yesterday (and overall ) , im joining the band of followers that happens to be attending Stratford races tomorrow on a”freebie”and would appreciate any input you can throw my way … as im likely to be 5 parts to the wind before racing even starts (free bar ) it would be much appreciated if you could give the card a once over and offer up your valued opinions … likewise any other members that my have something of interest .. Thank you in advance … and well done once again !

    Cheers

    joners 02/08/17 9:29 AM Reply


    • Morning Tony.. I think I am getting to the ‘any excuse to record a video’ stage and I’m sure I can muster up something! (along with a list of horses so you don’t have to put yourself through the video ordeal)… Going through the card has done ok every time I have tried it recently- so you have been warned, due the wheels falling off – but should be better than nothing. Will see what I can do- with any luck will get it posted later today.
      Josh

      Josh 02/08/17 9:36 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, where’s this Charlie Appleby system that has a qualifier today?

    Got the link?

    aallen 02/08/17 12:42 PM Reply


    • No yet, be patient 🙂 – tomorrow- it’s from my latest Betting School article, just need to save it as a PDF and upload it etc. Will be a link in tomorrow’s post. 1/1 so far, since ‘live’.

      Josh 02/08/17 12:50 PM Reply


  • Hi, first day here today and a lot to read.
    I might be missing something but are *Advised Flat Strategies* selections listed anywhere or is it simply none are qualified today?

    Thanks, Paul

    Paul 02/08/17 1:10 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul,

      Yep always a bit to get stuck in when new, thanks for giving it a go- it becomes straight forward once you get your head around everything…

      For the advised flat strategies you need to refer to ‘The Key’ above… and focus on those red codes, and the purple ES code… where relevant those are detailed next to the stats qualifiers in section 1.

      So as an example, 2pm Redcar… he has a purple ‘ES’ next to his name… as per the Key that denotes an ‘Elite squad’ qualifier, and as per the advised strategies is on advised strategy #3.

      Hopefully that makes sense. And same with any red symbols against advised strategies.

      The flat Elite Squad has been a very solid place to start, as you can see by the results.

      The green form indicators are just added info to help in any decision making.

      And all content is there for you to make a judgement on, a mix of set and forget systematic strategies, and then freedom to use your own subjective judgement on everything – back, don’t back, how much to have on, etc etc.

      Take your time to acclimatise, and start small would be my advise. The content finds plenty of decent priced winners over time, and plenty of losers- just a case of backing enough of the former to have some fun, and come out ahead over time.

      Any further questions fire away, can always email me also… racingtoprofit@gmail.com

      Now I have my video software sorted again I should probably record a quick intro video, that would probably be best.

      Josh

      Josh 02/08/17 1:17 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, appreciate you taking the time to reply.

        Paul 02/08/17 1:47 PM Reply


  • wow what a great start to the day, hope some members had the forecast

    Paul 02/08/17 1:57 PM Reply


    • I had £2.50 BFSP !! 39.00. Profit wise would have preferred the second to win as had £10 on him, but as it turns out not much difference – good fun to watch- was just re-watching relevant bit of video where Cool Sky’s record in mud was looked at briefly – should have been a tad more confident, but good start!

      Josh 02/08/17 2:04 PM Reply


      • One for the TTP stats, good start to the day.

        martin colwell 02/08/17 2:08 PM Reply


      • Hmm.. no I wasn’t really that positive in him in video, and didn’t look at race with soft-heavy setting, which he leaps off page on. Anyway, one of those! sadly i didnt do the 177/1 forecast!

        Josh 02/08/17 2:09 PM Reply


      • Josh
        Another cracking start to the day. I did exactly the same as you and had my bigger bet on the second. Still can’t complain.
        Should stop as per my s.w.i.p. Regime but there’s so much more to come I feel so im going to bet on albeit cautiously.
        Thanks
        David

        David Dickinson 02/08/17 2:19 PM Reply


        • You bet however you wish David and whatever makes you comfortable… if you can cope with potentially missing winners/profit, but like to protect a profit etc, if that’s what you enjoy then carry on! A decent enough start- flat stats haven’t found too many biggies, unlike jumps, but that may be 4/5 now in the 20/1+ range. hard to find but with ‘heavy’ eyes, a strong EW case could be made for him. Still, won’t complain, on we go.

          Josh 02/08/17 2:22 PM Reply


      • got 35.18 after r4 so up for the day whatever happens. 🙂

        martin whittle 02/08/17 3:15 PM Reply


  • I didn’t have the winner in the first one (although was on e/w for the 2nd and 3rd from elsewhere to soften that blow) but nice 9/1 winner to pad those Festival Trend stats.

    nickmazur 02/08/17 2:42 PM Reply


    • Ah damn, yep I only went in once took view it was already heavy, or very soft, and didn’t have much on. I won’t say how much I had on the winner.. but pretty much a ‘jumps tip 1 point’ – so, that was fun. Day has been made already, with any luck we are not finished yet. Well done, glad you had a go.

      He was the only heavy ground winner in the race. Easy game sometimes.

      Josh 02/08/17 2:47 PM Reply


      • I’m just backing the trends systematically (other than mistakes I haven’t intentionally deviated other than some which are near the odds range) so didnt look at the form but nice one.

        nickmazur 02/08/17 2:54 PM Reply


        • Yep, well I think we need to be careful.. or in any case have something on the lot and have more confidence of those with heavy ground form. Won his maiden on it so thought i’d have a bigger go than usual.
          On we go.

          Josh 02/08/17 2:56 PM Reply


          • The wonderful thing about a systematic approach is I had that multiple times over. Almost £50 on Balko in total.

            nickmazur 02/08/17 5:57 PM Reply


            • Ah, haha – well done, I didn’t quite have that much but it went well! nice to tip a winner, good for the stats – all in a bloody good race! This good run will end one day, been mad for a couple of weeks now.

              Josh 02/08/17 6:01 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Very well done. You said the main aim was the Galway Plate and the win was duly landed. Very impressive winner finding so far this week. Congratulations are in order
    David

    David Dickinson 02/08/17 6:08 PM Reply


    • Thanks David, don’t think it is like this all the time!
      Josh

      Josh 02/08/17 6:26 PM Reply


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