Free Daily Post: 02/08/17 (complete)

Hmm. Well an interesting day at Goodwood…many a big price horse going in. Two winners at 7/2>6/4 and 11/1>6/1 was a decent enough start for the Members’ notes albeit a long way to go. On the free post we had the ‘winner’ of race one…another stats/trends shortlist doing the job at a decent price… unfortunately he was rightly demoted to second by the stewards albeit I don’t blame the jockey. He won’t be declared as an official winner as that doesn’t make me comfortable- those who bet with online bookmakers may have been paid (main have a first past the post policy), those who bet on the highstreet or BFSP wouldn’t have been paid out. Still, yet more confidence can be taken from the approach I think- these shortlist are finding big priced horses that run well. On we march…

Tuesday was a milestone… first time a members post has hit the 10 winner mark for the day… 9/2,13/8,11/1,7/2,4/1,8/1,7/1,5/1,9/2, 8/1… plus 20/1 ‘winner’ DQ (online books paid) of 1.50 on this post. Trends/stats ‘working’ again.

I don’t expect anyone to have backed all of those but fingers crossed Members’ /readers backed a few/came out ahead for the day, which is the main thing. A bit of door knocking as well, esp mr Hogan at Galway,all his ran with credit at a price.
It’s now time for Mr Johnston to come to the Goodwood party, buckle up! 🙂

 

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No micro systems/stats quals

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The Galway Plate 

TIPS

Balko Des Flos – WON 1.5 points win – 7/1 (lad/coral/boyle/sportbet) 6/1 (general)

Haymount – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

Slow Motion – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 3rd 

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I’ll try and keep this brief enough.. from the shortlist below these three look most interesting.. I may have change on the others at BFSP just in case, albeit that is a cowards way out I suppose, I think they have a few too many questions but we have all been here before. It’s a handicap chase, so I have ‘tipped’…

Balko Des Flos- 7s is just ok, 6s getting on the short side but he looks very interesting here- young enough, unexposed, clearly aimed at the race given the break for me (those after decent breaks do very well in this). De Bromhead has won the race before and the horse races prominently. I couldn’t find a reason not to back him really. Fingers crossed. Davvy Russel is no bad booking either.

Haymount – I think he wants further, I suspect he may get out-paced, and then take a fence with him… but he is 14/1, he is lightly raced over fences, and he has run well/won over shorter. He won’t mind if the ground is on the softer side…and I wondered, whether they may try and make all/race him very prominently -and burn them off from the front. That is what I would try and do. Mullins is also in red hot form and has won this race before, albeit ‘only’ 1/30, 10 have placed. Enough there at the price, given the stats/his profile. Still more to come over fences, probably over further but happy to roll the dice for sure. The positives outweigh my niggles.

Slow Motion – well the RP spotlight says ‘no 5 year old has won this since 1990’ – true, but only 3 have tried since 2000- and at 14s I won’t let that put me off. She is unexposed over fences, the trainer is in decent form, there should be more to come. She may not be good enough but again this looks like it’s been a target. The one niggle is that she can be held up- never advisable here over fences, as you need a lot of luck. With any luck they ride her a bit further forward. Being off the pace may be no bad thing if they go too quickly. We shall see.

Of the rest… Alelchi Inois looks badly out of form and I was happy to leave. Needs a resurrection from somewhere. He does like Galway but none of the main Mullins jocks are on and I will leave. Lord Scoundrel won this last year but is 11lb higher in the weights after jockey claims and doesn’t arrive in the same form. I was happy to leave him, surely something with more in hand/unexposed, takes this! Maybe.

Bentelimar- if i have to have spare chance on a ‘discarded’ horse, may be him… although the trainer is only 1/134 with all handicap runners in recent years. Urgh. The horse has been running in small field novices and didn’t run well in a bigger field handicap chase. He is also very exposed over hurdles, and I don’t like chasers that have spent too long over timber as a general rule. He is a big price and a stat qualifier, so who knows. May be worth some ‘just in case’ change. But I have enough doubts for tipping purposes.

right, that’s the lot… the winner may not be on the shortlist, and in that case I wasn’t destined to find them. I don’t know the Irish scene well so will trust the stats.

I would like to see Road To Riches run well… I read some comments from Meade who said they discovered a problem with his gut or something, and that is why he has been poor for a while. He is now back bouncing at home apparently and this high class horse may go well for a way. I won’t be backing him but it would be nice to see a good run from him, esp having backed him a couple of times at Cheltenham in the past.

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Stats/trends

10/10, 0-2 runs this season

10/10 , 0-3 hncp wins

10/10, 0-3 places in hncp chases

Not 2lb or lower from last run (0/45,6p)

Not hurdle race LTO (0/42,8p)

Not Headgear (0/61,5p)

9/10 last win was right handed (1/84,12p LH)

 

Shortlist:  If I had a confidence scale on trends races from 1-10, i’d put the Skybet Dash on a 10, the 1.50 Goodwood at around a 7/8, and this one around a 5! There are no overly strong 20 year stats and in truth this profile feels a tad cobbled together. It also has a 9/10 figure. There are other pointers but when they are analysed with those pointers above already saves ‘as a system’ they are insignificant. Those above leave a ‘shortlist’ of 6…

Balko Des Flos / Slow Motion / Haymount / Bentelimar / Lord Scoundrel / Alelchi Inois

I’ll have a flick through the race more in the morning and as it is a handicap chase may ‘tip’ – albeit last time I attempted that at Market Rasen it didn’t go well! I want to see if I can confidently reduce that list in any way- danger! And I probably haven’t mentioned the winner.

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GOODWOOD: Day 2 VIDEO

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(feedback on my filming efforts always welcome.. more positive the better obviously! 🙂 – in all seriousness, suggested areas for improvement welcome also, just say so…) 

 

Go on, take your 21 Day Free Trial HERE>>>

(you’ve got nothing to lose, and may have a great time.. don’t bother if you ‘just’ want ‘tips’ though ‘back horse X’ … that’s not what we do) 

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GUEST RACE PREVIEW:  Speculate 2 Accumulate

Goodwood 1.50

18 October Storm – 1 point each way @ 10/1 generally (PP go odds to 5th / Sky odds to 6th)

3 Star Rider – 1 point each way @ 10/1 generally (PP go odds to 5th / Sky odds to 6th)

8 Arthur McBride – 1 point each way @ 16/1 (PP go odds to 5th / Sky odds to 6th)

(check SKYBET – 1st race offer and have 1/2 point each way 9 TAWS at 12/1)

We did not have much luck in running yesterday, but absolutely no complaints from me, this is Goodwood, the equine equivalent or Rollerball; we had won the corresponding race last season, benefitting from interference; so “what goes round comes round”.

The race was decided in The Stewards Room, never satisfactory, but in these days of “First Past The Post” many on Dark Red would have been paid out, and all on the winner will have been paid out, and that’s how it should be.

We will attack another race we had the winner of last year again today and hey presto, that horse STAR RIDER returns to defend her crown, and the key word there could be “her” more of that a little later on. There are 2 more angles to consider here; the weather and some attractive Bookie enhancements. SKY are offering a free bet if the favourite wins and your first tip is placed; so we will have a bask at that with what I would label “a backstop”; something I expect to plod in for a place at nice odds.

The weather will be crucial. It is expected to start raining around 8am and basically, then not stop all day; although the more intense rain will fall from around midday. The Going yesterday seemed to me to be more like “pudding”, Good to Soft did not really sum it up, and it won’t take much rain to turn it soft, and could well be bordering on heavy by the close of play, IF the forecast is correct, that will give us some real punting angles later in the week for sure, but lets look closely at today.

2m 4 furlongs and 134 yards, a marathon trip. Had the race been held yesterday there are 3-4 I would have really wanted to be on here that I don’t fancy half as much today with the rain coming, I really want proven stamina, ability to run in some pretty uncompromising ground, Course form is a key asset and a few here have it. These races can turn in to “benefits” for National Hunt horses, but the dynamic and pace of a race on the Flat is far different, so it may be a dangerous alley to go down, simply to turn to the National Hunt fraternity.

So lets try to sort out the wheat from the chaff.

We saw 33/1; 50/1 and 100/1 winners yesterday, so nothing can ever be written off but I think the trip may find out this first batch and if the trip bothers me, so does the Going-: Sunblazer; Paris Protocol and Red Rannagh; it is not great quality by Goodwood standards; so that leaves many in with a chance; although some are on old and spurious form lines and I have had to go back 4-5 years with some of these horses to fins a form starting point.

So; lets weed out a few more -:

Suegioo – favourite of mine but the trip and Going will stretch; always runs a race and will be there until the last few furlongs for sure;  Guard of Honour – should get the trip but the Going is a real concern for me, would have been top 6 but for it in my opinion; Frederic – the trip again a negative not sure about the Going but does know how to win races; in a bit deep here Percy Veer – 2nd last year in this and clearly stays, Going and a nagging 6 month break just keep it of short list Cool Sky – another whose chances rest on stamina or lack of it, a dark horse for sure, but that last 1/2 mile a concern Denmead – won on Good to Soft, 2 mile winner but I think he just lacks the stamina for this on known form and visual evidence.

Hawkerland – is short priced favourite, I want to take him on, trip and no form on soft allow me to.

Akavit – front runner; won on soft, best at 2 miles; likely pace angle and that will give a few of my tips a boost!

That leaves me with a final list of 6 and now we have to get in to a bit of meteorological guess work. If the race was later on the Card I would probably be looking at something different form the same 6 horses but you have to stick your flag in the ground somewhere and I am banking on it being Good to Soft bordering soft and  not worse.

So my final 6 in reverse order-:

6th GOLDEN DOYEN – has a chance on some old Flat form, trip and Going should suit and expect to be in contention

5th AURORA GRAY – would be top 3 but for rain, progressive, promising, just think rain has scuppered win chances stamina wise

4th TAWS – good race/Course history, will plod on and on if you want to take SKYBET option v favourite this is my e/w Banker.

3rd ARTHUR McBRIDE – decent run at Royal Ascot last time out; Trainer has won this race; Going is fine and looks to have

the stamina to be staying on late if not forced to go too fast too soon and if gets run of race strong  contender

2nd STAR RIDER – won for us last year at nice odds, that was on Good to Firm, but plenty of evidence can handle Good to Soft; those are rock solid form lines and looks to have been prepared for this race and should make a bold bid. The “mare angle”; nothing better than to follow a winning mare trying to win the same race as last year, mares like all females have “cycles” and that is a basic fact that it is very easy to overlook, this is her time of year and that can add a few pounds on to any form analysis.

1st OCTOBER STORM – trip looks fine and within range based on recent run, has won at The Course so familiar with its nooks and crannies and they will visit all of them n this trip, best on Good but has run OK on softer and may just get the job done before the worst of the weather intervenes…

Staking strategy…

1 point each way on OCTOBER STORM; STAR RIDER; ARTHUR McBRIDE and  1/2 point each way on TAWS with SkyBet, make it your first bet on SkyBet to hopefully place for favourite enhancement.

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Back tomorrow MORNING as we will assess what the deluge has done to the Going and likely non runners for Day 3.

Regards

Ian

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That is all for today’s post. Good luck with any bets.

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • Having IT problems as I am not at home so no previews today. Confounded by Gary Moore’s 100/1 shot yesterday. In fairness he was a big strong raw boned lad and nothing wrong with him but still hard to see him winning on debut.

    Today with the soft ground likely it is difficult to summon any confidence as to what might happen. I shall be observing the Molecombe and probably the maiden too. I’ve seen about 10 of the runners in the maiden and they all fall between 68 and 74 on my ratings, ie nothing special. Two that may do better than odds suggest are Hollywood Dream and Smooth Sailing. The latter looked a notably big and strong filly on her debut but showed virtually nothing in a Cl5 at Windsor. She is by Bated breath so not much hope that she will go on soft.

    Lamya is joint top of the ones I have seen.
    Hugh

    alpha2 02/08/17 7:41 AM Reply


    • The Gary Moore Goodwood micro I have only applies to handicaps and so….

      martin colwell 02/08/17 8:41 AM Reply


  • just looking at the sussex stakes and with all the focus on Ribchester and Churchill thought it might be fun to have a look without those 2 and i came up with Here Comes When 66-1 only one to have won on soft (rain forecast) , not in bad form and 3rd place paying the same as a 13-2 winner, skybet 33-1 w/o Ribchester or 9-1 to place. if all 9 stay in i’m thinking of taking the 33’s w/o Ribchester or am i just going mad?

    martin whittle 02/08/17 7:43 AM Reply


    • I think I heard you screaming !!!

      Chris Albin 02/08/17 3:42 PM Reply


      • Hopefully a few were, top work.. flagged in video also. Super stuff.

        Josh 02/08/17 3:43 PM Reply


    • great call

      Pete 02/08/17 3:46 PM Reply


    • Thanks Martin.Had a little on Here Comes When.Great tipping.

      Colzoss 02/08/17 3:57 PM Reply


    • Thanks! That was awesome 🙂

      James Bunch 02/08/17 5:25 PM Reply


    • Many thanks Martin ! always enjoy your posts had a £3 win at 66-1 thanks again!! David.

      jacobs123 03/08/17 7:20 AM Reply


  • Couple of Hannon first time headgear ones at Redcar.
    2.00 7/1 and 4.20 8/1.

    Chris Baxendale 02/08/17 8:57 AM Reply


  • As part of my approach to horse racing I track a number of tipsters. I aim to track who is doing well and who is not. Sometimes these tipsters or their associated sites post up historic results in adverts. Beware of these unless they are proofed to a reliable source such as the Racing Post or Secret Betting Club or me! An advert out at present details £50K of wins in the past 12 months. Unsurprisingly this is untrue. The relevant tipster is running at a minimal loss in this period. I have challenged the site but they say their results are true but are not proofed. Beware of such claims. I wont name them but when going with a tipster always check they proof their results to an independent source.

    martin colwell 02/08/17 11:52 AM Reply


    • Excellent comments Martin and I am writing this as a frustrated tipster and not in any way touting for business which I never do.

      The biggest benchmark for any self respecting professional tipster is honesty and transparency and that’s why we proof to Racing Index. We also record to SP and BSP. The playing field though is far from level, indeed it is corrupt. So many “tipsters” advertise results never achieved, prices never obtained, addresses and contact details that don’t exist and then simply vanish. That is why guys like Josh and Gary Priestley (who are largely free/ free respectively) deserve great credit; as so a small number of professional and dedicated paid for Tipsters; who I have the utmost respect for.

      There is actually a code we (Tipsters) could and should work under; it comes under the auspices of the Advertising Standards Authority; but with a few rare exceptions, they don’t seem to want to get involved, and in the same way that some professions are regulated, it is high time Tipsters (certainly those that charge) were also regulated in some way.

      The Secret Betting Club is a good resource, we don’t proof to them for a few reasons mostly due to the format they want tips to be proofed in (advised prices, proof of advised prices and time of proofing) which as a tipster that records only to SP/BSP would be an admin cost and extra work nightmare for us. We do proof to Racing Index and that is a great independent resource for checking out Tipsters.

      I would also caution against so called “proofing sites” that are owned and run by what I call “Tipping Factories” they have been known to set up what look like proofing sites but which only proof tipsters they have affinity deals and/or ownership of. The font of the website and address is usually a give away.

      I would query (politely) your comments about Racing Post. They don’t proof Tipsters other than those who advertise with them, steadfastly refuse to publish proofing tables (other than paper tipster nap tables) and often publish adverts from some very unsavoury organisations. I won’t name names but one of their biggest advertisers is a computer generated system provider (not Timeform) based in Harrogate, who are one of the very few that the ASA have actually adjudicated against; and who will charge you £3,000 a year!! (and it is not a patch on what Josh delivers in terms of systems/trend analysis with a fraction of the explanation)

      I think as with all purchases, it is a case of (a) buyer beware (b) look for proof and transparency and an awareness that results can never be guaranteed.

      GL

      Ian SP2A 02/08/17 1:30 PM Reply


      • Thanks for the comments Ian. I take your point re the Racing Post if you are really drilling into the depth of proofing. Anyone on the blog can always ask me what I know of a certain tipster if they wish?

        martin colwell 02/08/17 1:54 PM Reply


  • Good wood today, no big bets – 1.50 Cool Sky and Golden Doyen each way, both to stay the distance; 2.25 Johnston runners at 7/1+; 3.00 Battle of Jericho each way for O’Brien; 3.35 Churchill at more than 2/1 or no bet; 4.45 Johnston runners 7/1+; 5.50, very tricky race and so Boy in the Bar and Sun Lover each way against the field.

    martin colwell 02/08/17 11:57 AM Reply


    • Notice Joe Fanning is on the outsider of Mark Johnsons runners in the 2.25 and 4.45 what a surprise!!! may be worth a small ew double

      colin leafe 02/08/17 12:23 PM Reply


    • Well done on the first two races Martin.

      Mr T 02/08/17 3:20 PM Reply


  • Hi Guys, See that ‘ Josh The Plod’ is 15/8 Fav in the 6.30 @ Leics. Should we lump on ?

    Allan 02/08/17 12:05 PM Reply


    • ha, brave man- I have the odd bit of pace about me – albeit for my video approach that is probably an apt name!!! I’ll just watch with interest.

      Josh 02/08/17 12:17 PM Reply


      • Lump if he’s wearing his jumper lol

        James Bunch 02/08/17 1:32 PM Reply


  • Hi, not long now until Friday and the English football season starts.

    For those interested in football bets, Rosenborg are not much good (I hear you say the same about Celtic) and are a lay at home at 11/10 this evening. They scraped home in extra time at home in the last round against lowly opponents and Brendan Rogers may be able to get a tune out of the Bhoys this evening?

    martin colwell 02/08/17 12:18 PM Reply


    • Martin
      Interesting little match Rosenburg have been playing competitive
      league games and Celtic mainly Friendlies
      so I think Rosenburg had the edge at Celtic Park Sharpness wise
      but with that game under their belt as well I think Celtic who are by far the superior side
      of the two will be much closer to the pace.
      Celtic know the revenue from the champions league group games is vital to their future
      so they wont go down lightly.
      although the first game ended 0-0 that isn’t that bad a result as they haven’t got
      an away goal against them.

      Will be a tight little match but see Celtic going through.( under 2.5 goals look a fair bet)

      What are the stats about teams who play in the champions league and Europa league qualifiers
      My Team West Ham a few seasons started the season very well
      after playing 4 legs of Europa league before the season started.
      admittedly they faded late on in the season when all the games caught up with them
      but started well.
      Will Everton for instance have an edge sharpness wise first premier league game
      for playing a competitive Europa league match rather than friendlies

      PETER WALKER 02/08/17 3:13 PM Reply


  • got the rest of the day to myself so i have time for a proper look at telly races.
    1-50. got to a short list of 5 ,2 of which are members selections so i’ll ignore them as already backed, which leaves me Suieggio £1 ew , October storm £1 ew and Hawkerland £2 win.
    2-25. again i’m ignoring members selections which leaves me Tamleek 20-1 i’ll use one of my free bets and have £2-50 ew.
    3-00. with Varians flying i’ll have £2.50 ew free bet on To Wafij for an interest.
    3.35 as posted earlier i really have lost my mind and i’m having £1ew on Here Comes When 50-1

    martin whittle 02/08/17 12:52 PM Reply


  • Cobbled together some fuzzy stats for the first.
    LTO raced on the flat
    No claiming jocks
    Age 4-7
    Best in 3 runs top 3
    Leaves Aurora Grey, Frederic and Red Rannagh.
    I think I’ll back the 2 biggies with a saver on the other with a tiny R/F.

    Chris Albin 02/08/17 1:34 PM Reply


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