Members Daily Post: 01/08/17 (Galway Update! / complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

2.50- Free Forum (all hncps) ES 7/2 WON 9/2 

5.00 – Jordon Sport (all hncps, 3yo+) ES H1 I3 G1 6/1

 

Goodwood

5.15 – Al Nafoorah (4yo+ 3yo+) I1 G1 20/1 UP 

 

Beverley

4.55 –

Popsies Joy (micro runs) 14  16/1 UP

Fidelma Moon (micro runs) 14 (wrong trainer,apols,not a qual) 

5.30 – Four Wishes (micro runs) 14 I3 G3 5/1

6.00- King of The Kelts (micro runs) 14 I3 7/1 2nd 

 

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

5.40 – Ink Master (all hncps = micro TJC) ES H1 I3 7/4 UP

6.10 – Keppel Isle (all hncps) 14/1

6.40 –

Scoop The Pot (all hncps + micro TJC) ES 7/1  WON 25p R4  5.25/1 > 3/1 

Sporting Boy (all hncps) 25/1 UP

7.15 – Tell The Tale (BONUS) I3 12/1 UP

7.50 –

Poetic Lady (hncp hurdle) H3 11/4 UP

Ginger Fizz (micro distance) I3  7/1 WON 7/1>6/1

 

Perth 

7.30 –

Creevytennant (all hncps) ES 8/1 WON 8/1>6/1 

Kilbree Kid (hncp chase) 30 H3 4/1 UP

8.30 – Cuirassier Dempire (hncp chase) H3 I3 9/4

9.00-  Johnny Go (all hncps + hncp hurdle) 14,30 H3 I3  8/1 WON 8/1>10/3 

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated)

Test Zone:  | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

NONE

No ‘tips’ again.. a couple of ES on the flat of interest who with any luck will run their races. Dunlop’s looks interesting enough at 20s given he is double top rated on the speed ratings.

Nothing too much is jumping out at me over the sticks- none are really in the unexposed camp/doing something different, and some have the odd question to answer to my eyes. No doubt the odd one may leave me red faced, as moderate summer jumping can often do. I suppose Scoop The Pot is lightly enough raced and has a decent run at Cheltenham a few starts back- the 200+ days off would niggle at me personally but the market may guide as to his chance. If a1 you could see him running well. Keppel Isle is lightly raced over fences – but his recent form is poor and he’s had a break- but the trainer is in decent form and she has done ok here with horses returning after a break. I may throw some change at him at a price- any drift would concern me. Not the same level of confidence as yesterday’s hurdles winner.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

There won’t be any ‘August’ trainer angles… what with Galway/Goodwood/York Ebor there is enough to keep us occupied alongside section 1. Also got CD jockeys and I will post up any Appleby Quals from my ‘trainers in focus’ research piece, which I will post up this week sometime.   

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

GALWAY 2017

Members’ Report: READ HERE>>>

**

 

Odds odds odds….  a quick word on Mullins, and his flat runners… he snuck in a 33/1>16/1 winner on the level at Galway that I didn’t have a penny, hopefully someone out there may have done. The notes are deliberately framed as ‘positives’, rather than anything else being a negative. Albeit – Mullins was 0/13,2p with all flat runners at the meeting the prev 5 years sent off 11/2+, (0/8, 16f) , all flat winners 5/1<, hence why it was a ‘positive’- those two places came in the previous two years and what with his 1st and 4th on Day 1 at big prices, it may be wise not to be put off by bigger odds, if that were the case. Safe to say he is in form, as if he were ever out of it, but they are going well. Albeit we all know every flat runner sent off 11/2+ will now come nowhere!

Denis Hogan… as touched on in video and in chat with Nick… before Monday he was 0/101,4p with all flat runners sent off 22/1 or bigger.. he hasn’t improved on those stats yet… maybe on day 2

 

**

Galway Day 2

5.20 – Law Girl, 14,30  UP

7.05 –

Desert Train UP

Our Chelsea Lady (16/1< ) UP

7.40 –

Riven Light (5/1< a positive!) 14,30  WON 4/1

Turbine 4th 16/1

The Moore Factor (16/1<)

 

Bugger..left the following quals on my notepad and no doubt they’ll win!..

 

8.10 – Atlas 4th

8.40 – Allegio  2nd  / Grannies Dream UP (5/1< a positive)

 

 

Goodwood Day 1

‘Notes’, no Johnston Micro Quals,

 

1.50- Stoute’s if 7/2< (positive ,has had 2 winners bigger, 2/43,15p) DNQ 

2.25 – Expert Edge (7/2<,as above) WON 7/2>6/4 

3.35 – Stradivarious WON 11/1>6/1

4.10- Any of Hannons if 9/2<  (1/87, 14p, 5/1+) DNQ

Rebel Streak (12/1<, 0/34,1p bigger SP) 2nd 

4.45 – Dark Shot (12/1<, as above) UP

 

**

 

A TRIP TO BEVERLEY >>>

(yep, this one isn’t 10 minutes either!…)

 

 

Horse of interest from video above…. (if you are going racing! – not a card to go mad on, esp with the ground/so many horses having never raced on it… but most of the below have winning form on soft/heavy,which today was my main ‘way in’ – we shall see if it is that simple…)

2.00- Wheellan EW, 15/2 3rd 9/4

2.35- ‘go to the bar’… Heaven Scent UP / Strike Master  UP (change)

3.10 – pass (Biddy Brady..TE in form,not many 1st time winners though UP ) /6 never raced on soft,let alone heavy.

3.45 – Windforpower (EW) 2nd 16/1

4.20 – Bahama Moon UP / Off Art UP

4.55 – Reinforced / Geordie George UP

5.30 – Polar Forest WON 9/2>3/1 

6.00 – Indian Chief (had to throw a fav in there!!)  WON 13/8 

 

 

 

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • what time will you be posting goodwood/galway as i’m off out early in morning and there’s no wifi where i’m going?

    martin whittle 31/07/17 8:22 PM Reply


  • just noticed i got my extra £30 of free bets from skybet just in time for goodwood 🙂

    martin whittle 31/07/17 8:24 PM Reply


    • Done 🙂

      Josh 31/07/17 8:39 PM Reply


  • Here I was thinking I had followed the micros to the letter before logging into Betfair exchange when Poet Power won to notice I accidentally backed Whiskey Sour last nice lol.

    nickmazur 31/07/17 8:52 PM Reply


    • haha – those are the best winners! And I like to think our approach deserves that kind of luck over time- sadly I didn’t place said bet accidentally, or intentionally. But I had a good go on that 6/1 winner and am up for the day what with Treasure the Ridge also, so no complaints here. Well done.

      Josh 31/07/17 8:55 PM Reply


  • My filtered Galway stats found Poet Power at 7/1, 2 places, 2 losers and a non runner. So not a bad start. I have 5 for Tuesday – Law Girl, Turbine, The Moore Factor, Atlas and Allegio.

    I will post some selections for Goodwood on the free post on Tuesday.

    martin colwell 31/07/17 9:11 PM Reply


    • Remind me how you filter them again Martin, minimum +20 BFSP for said angle?

      Josh 31/07/17 9:14 PM Reply


      • Yes 20+ and the price based upon my idea of value, which is subjective on my part. Plus with a tweak sometimes. As you say use the stats as you will. The bets I do on these micros are not significant, stakes between £10 and £50. I have Atlas and Allegio ( both Denis Hogan flat , age 4 or 5), which you dont.

        martin colwell 31/07/17 9:55 PM Reply


        • Hi Martin…

          Just read this properly… I am meant to have them posted haha- they were left languishing on my notepad.

          I aim to post all ‘qualifiers’ against the notes, so do shout loud and clear if you think I have missed something. There is a lot going on this week, and it is standard for me to miss the odd thing when it is quiet, let alone Galway/Goodwood/section 1 etc

          GL

          Josh 01/08/17 1:15 PM Reply


          • Ok Josh, will flag my take on the micros on the Members blog. We are all fallible, after all you follow Liverpool (and I Millwall!).

            martin colwell 01/08/17 1:33 PM Reply


  • Great cheers Josh

    Great tips today, shame i had not a bean on Whiskey Sour! Missed opportunites can be the cruelest but onto tomorrow 🙂

    Darren 31/07/17 9:23 PM Reply


    • Oh I wouldn’t worry, I didn’t have a penny on either. That’s how it goes. Always living in hope to find the next one.

      I’ve just finished recording a video for the Beverley Card- I tried to make it short, but failed, about 30 minutes but hopefully you get time to watch it – i’ll try and list the horses I like below it..

      In general looks a poor card, but the heavy ground is interesting – well it makes it a challenge but there are a handful who are proven on it, whereas you are guessing for the rest.

      All the usual caveats, outside of having a ‘stats way in’, the time I have spent on that whole card I would usually spend on 1 or 2 races, if having a proper look, if not longer. Small stakes advised, i’d be spending a healthy time at the bar/with beer in hand!

      I’ll post it up asap.
      Josh

      Josh 31/07/17 10:20 PM Reply


  • Morning Josh and all,

    Yep I’m in the didn’t back Whiskey Sour too, you can’t get them all and after a lucky Saturday (Stamp Hill at bfsp) I can’t complain 🙂

    Really enjoying the Video’s Josh it’s great to listen to your thought process.

    Gav

    Gavin 01/08/17 9:38 AM Reply


    • Morning Gavin, that’s the attitude! I/we/some of us, will forever miss the odd winner on these pages, annoying when that price but that’s the way it is. We can’t be too greedy now 🙂

      thanks, glad you like the videos, they do help focus my own mind and make me think- i think the need to make some sense and justify what I am saying helps. Good to mix it up about with how I present the info, you don’t want to be reading War And Peace all the time, and I don’t really want to be writing all the time either.

      Josh

      Josh 01/08/17 1:07 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh great to hear your thoughts. Posted on the free post also. A fun day and if we come away with a few winners all the better. Cheers

    Darren 01/08/17 10:28 AM Reply


    • Cheers, no problem, I enjoy doing those , and even more so if we find a winner or two- i’m hopeful most of those should give you a run for your money, and with any luck a couple may win. Don’t let those thoughts put you off anything you may fancy yourself!
      GL, i’ll be watching with interest (and may well have thrown a few £5s around myself!)

      Josh 01/08/17 10:32 AM Reply


  • Josh I see you have Al Nafoorah in the 4y+ bracket but it’s a 3 year old, am I missing something?. Cheers mate.

    Andrew Gough 01/08/17 12:20 PM Reply


    • Hi Andrew… oh yes that is confusing, I have written the wrong code there, apols – the stat is correct,he quals against Dunlops record in 3yo+ handicaps here… and for some reason I have written 4yo+ … do always pull me up on such things, usually i’ve made a balls up! Cheers.

      Josh 01/08/17 12:25 PM Reply


  • Anytime Josh, I’m the king of “balls ups” ask the missy’s.

    Andrew Gough 01/08/17 12:34 PM Reply


  • Josh, you’ve done it again! First ES for this month’s flat home and hosed at 9/2 SP. Well done.

    Patrick

    Patrick Reid 01/08/17 3:03 PM Reply


  • Great to see the old boy Creevy win at perth,young girl did great letting him off and enjoy himself,jumping immaculately won him the race

    gearoid180468 01/08/17 8:53 PM Reply


    • was just a joy to watch, not a bad price either- albeit didn’t need to bet to enjoy that, was just superb. Jumping won that, again. Good day for jumps ES, dragging them nearly back to 0 having been in the doldrums a tad. Only a matter of time, with any luck they can kick on.

      Josh 01/08/17 8:55 PM Reply


      • Good day for the jumps in general. I am still curious at how the Inform Ratings are performing overall.

        nickmazur 01/08/17 9:13 PM Reply


  • It’s a nice little bread and butter strategy Josh that will come into its own when we come into season proper,no need for pondering

    gearoid180468 01/08/17 9:11 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Great first day as a member. Johnny Go rounds off the day in style.
    Many thanks
    David

    DAVID DICKINSON 01/08/17 9:13 PM Reply


    • No problem. Not every day is like that though! – i think that is 10 winners on this page today across all the bits and pieces, plus plenty of knocking on the door at good prices, + the 20/1, 18/1 winner that wasn’t of the 1.50 on free post. A mad day, with any luck everyone won a bit today, however they played all the above. I doubt anyone backed the lot, but who knows!
      Josh

      Josh 01/08/17 9:15 PM Reply


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