Free Daily Post: 29/07/17 (complete)

Intro…

Well I am in buoyant mood after yet another decent priced winner for my flat ‘elite squad’.  Oh It’s Saucepot helped smash through the +50 point barrier in a little over a month. The losers will come at some point but for now we’ll enjoy the ride. I hope you had a nibble

Don’t forget you can take a 21 day Free Trail of the Members Club HERE>>>  .. if you take the ClickBank option you are effectively getting 81 days free access. What’s not to like? 🙂

Moving onto today and I have got stats, trends and shortlists for the two big handicaps of the day. I have not ‘tipped’ in them as such but you can use the info in any way you please. With any luck the winners are on the stats shortlists. This same approach has worked for the Bunbury Cup and The Scottish Stewards Cup in the last couple of weeks.

I am off to York races today. If you’re there do say hello if you see me. I have recorded a couple of videos below which in truth are probably too long- I will try my best to speed things up next time but you know what i’m like.  I was attacking the card cold and you may find the odd interesting snippet in there.

Our friends from Speculate 2 Accumulate have also previewed the International Stakes and let me share their thoughts for free. Generous bunch.

No doubt there will be the odd winner in the comments also,

Enjoy, have a great day, and remember… there’s always tomorrow 🙂

Josh

 

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Stats/Trends/Pointers

York: SkyBet Dash 

(13 renewals, 223 runners, 47 placed horses)

13/13, 12/1 or shorter SP

  • 11/13, 8/1 or shorter
  • 14/1+ : 0/133,19p

13/13 Top 5 in market (10/13 Top 2)

13/13, top 2 at least once last three starts  (0/90,11p were not)

13/13 running at same distance,or down in trip, from last run (0/56,7p up 1f or more)

13/13 were no more than 1lb lower than last race (0/47,6, 2lb+)

13/13 aged 3-7

  • 10/13 aged 3-5

 

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12/13 drawn 12 or lower (1/74,15p, 13+)

12/13, 0-3 distance wins (4+ : 1/66,12p)

12/13 had last win over 6f or further (last win 5f, 1/57,6p)

11/13 ran 8-30 days ago

11/13 Top 8 in weights (exc claims) (9th or lower, 2/110,21p)

**

13/13 ran either 6-15 days ago, or 26-45

  • 1-5: 0/9,2p,   16-25: 0/21,3p,  46+, 0/18,1p

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Trainers: Fahey (2/23,6p), T Easterby (0/17,0p) , K Ryan (0/13,3p)

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Shortlist:

13/13 stats (exc days since run)….  Snap Shots / Normandy Barriere / Al Qahwa / Jay Walker / Flying Pursuit 

Jaywalker falls on the days run as above and also draw, in sense 12< best.

The distance win stat 11/13, is a positive for Snapshots / Al Qawa / Jay Walker

Top 8 in the weights – a positive for Al Qawa and Normandy Barrier…

My pin, stats wise…is homing in on Snap Shots/ Normandy B/ Al Qahwa... prob with savers on the other two in case!

On liking for soft going I think Al Qahwa looks my main EW bet, hoping he goes off 12/1< !, and Snap Shots. Flying Pursuit with form in soft but poor LTO. Normandy B looks a good ground hore but who knows.

Do with that as you please!

 

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Ascot: The International Stakes (Handicap)

19/19,  2+  runs this season

19/19 had run over 7.5 furlongs or further in career (0/90,16 p had not)

18/18 (with prev win) had all won over 7f+ (0/62,11p had not)

19/19 ran 1-60 days ago

17/19 aged 4 or 5 (3: 1/62,10p.  6: 1/73, 10p.  7+ 0/61,4p)

**

10/10 aged 4 or 5

10/10, OR not lower than last run (0/36,0p lower) (10/10 same or 3lb higher max)

10/10, had 1+ run at Ascot before (0/45,4p had not run here before)

NOT 2 runs only in last 90 days: such types 0/57,4p

10/10 had won over 7f  or further

10/10 ran in a 3yo+ race LTO (0/46,4p had not.. ran in 3yo only, or 4yo+)

9/10 had 4-14 runs over the distance

Ran on All-Weather Last Time Out: 0/9,0p

NOT Class 1 LTO: C1 LTO 0/20,3p (small enough numbers though)

Trainers: Johnston (3/19,3p) , Fahey (2/17,3p)

**

Shortlist:

The 19/19,18/18 and 10/10 stats, + not 2 runs only last 90 days, leaves…

Fastnet Tempest / Remarkable / Fawaareq / Sir Roderic / Stamp Hill. 

 

Fastnet Tempest looks interesting enough here for the in form Haggas Yard. 7s may be short enough but he is on the side of what little pace there appears to be in this. Fawaarq looks worth each way support also given his unexposed profile. He has run some decent races and may come on from that last run. He could be on the wrong side here but i’m guessing a bit and at 14s I’ve had a go. A chance of sorts can be given to Remarkable but he is a bit of a monkey I think,always flattering to deceive. The other two look up against it, but we’ve all been here before! 🙂

GL with whatever you may go with from those two races.

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Trip To York: VIDEOS

I’ve upgraded some technology recently which means that it is easier/quicker for me to record/produce videos now… I can hear the cheers 🙂 So, I will try and start doing a few more of those in the coming weeks and months.

As I am off to York tomorrow I thought i’d have a flick through the card. Video one includes an intro and an in-depth look at race 1.

Video two looks at all the other races. In truth not too much jumped out at me but with any luck some of you find it useful. And if you don’t know what I look or sound like these may bring me to life!

 

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(You can take a 30 day trial of Geegeez Gold for £1 HERE>> if you so wish) 

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GUST TIPS… From Speculate 2 Accumulate…

They’ve covered the International Stakes below. News on a special offer for RTP readers will be forthcoming next week and they are also letting me share plenty of their Goodwood coverage for free, which is great news for us all. For now, the 3pm at Ascot… as taken from their email to members…

Good Morning

20 Makzeem – 1 point each way @ 8/1

4 Remarkable – 1 point each way @ 11/1

1 Firmament – 1 point each way @ 33/1

6 Squats – 1 point each way @ 25/1

 

————

We had great success in the big field Straight Handicaps at Royal Ascot finding the winner of the 30+ runner Hunt Cup and Wokingham races with Zhui Feng and Out Do, and we attempt the nigh on impossible treble here.

What did we learn at Royal Ascot, and can that help us today?

These are very competitive races and you need luck in running. The draw is a huge dilemma, as we saw a few weeks ago with Zhui Feng drawn very high against the stands rail and Out Do draw in stall 1 against the far side rail. The issue at Royal Ascot was that due to artificial watering, the bias changed slightly and the difference today is that we are not talking hosepipes but proper rain, which is fairer and less discriminatory. The fact is that racing yesterday indicated very little difference it seems across the track, but pace, and being behind something that goes off quick is vital, Zhui Feng led most of the way, Out Do tucked in close to the pace and came in the final 300 yards.

The Clerk of the Course indicated yesterday that it was Good to Soft, would not need much to change it to soft, there was a bit of rain last night and more is due from around 2pm, one thing I am pretty sure of is that it is not going to get appreciably better, if anything it will verge on soft. The 7 furlong trip is a specialist one , but they finish up a deceptive incline and on this going I want something that is proven on Good to Soft and which has form at a mile or an easy mile if possible, I don’t see this being won by a horse stepping up in trip, maybe down is better.

There are 27 runners, Jack Dexter ran yesterday so may well come out and Family Fortunes wont be going for the big jackpot prize on this occasion either. As usual I started with a list of every runner; looked at the trends and Course form, then considered the Going and Stamina, finally draw and Trainer form. It is a “trends race” and that throws up 4-5 likely horses, I will look at trends but think it is dangerous to be totally blinded by them.

Lets weed them out and first to go, simply on grounds of with not being good enough or out of form are the following-: Buckstay; Top Score; Big Time; Heavens Guest; Mount Tahan; Swift Approval; Havre De Paix; Stamp Hill; Nicholas T; Jack Dexter; Shady McCoy; Burnt Sugar; Mijjack – if any of those win I will doff my cap and say I got it hopelessly wrong this time, of them only Harve De Paix (total dark horse) and Heavens Guest really give me any grounds for optimism in a race of this calibre.

That reduced the field significantly and my next cull involved -: Above The Rest (not sure Course suits); Flaming Spear (better on AW and too short I think); Johnny Barnes (not quite good enough and only saving  grace and concern is John Gosden!); Withernsea (gets ground but just not quite making the final cut); Viscount Barfield (in form but not sure Ascot suits it); Gossiping (better on AW I think);Sir Roderic (could be a dark horse on this ground but yet to show form in 2017); of those I would think SIR RODERIC is the one most feared but I have a “sleeper” (a horse yet to show hand in 2017) who I think is better qualified.

So that left me with a final list of the following-;

Firmament; Yuften; Remarkable; Squats; Fastnet Tempest; Fawaareq; Makzeem.

If I had sent this mail out late yesterday, I would have had YUFTEN in the final 4 but I just think the ground has gone against him. He is very close on collateral form with REMARKABLE and I think the Going and the emphasis on a bit more stamina suits the Gosden horse. I also think that as a 4 year old, Remarkable has more scope to improve from the 2016 formline between them than YUFTEN so Remarkable makes the final 4.

I then considered a “match” between MAKZEEM and FAWAAREQ similarly and have concluded that with his Yard in such good form that if I am going to take one of these to war with me today it is MAKZEEM that just gets the nod; he is progressive and his Course form stands out, something Faraweeq does not yet have in its locker.

That left me with Firmament; Squats and Fastnet Tempest and that’s a tough call, I don’t like picking favourites; and I don’t think Fastnet Tempest is great value at the price, it ticks every box but I am a “contrarian” looking for different angles and value and more “hidden form” so if you want a few bob win bet as a saver feel free and I’m sure Fastnet Tempest will give you a bold run.

So what of SQUATS and FIRMAMENT at 25/1 and 33/1 and  less obvious. SQUATS has form figures of 000; but a very good Course record, likes to get its toe in, Trainer in form; very nice handicap mark and if you look at those 3 races in 2017 with 000; first run always needed, second one too short a trip and last one Good to Firm, I think win or not today the horse will finish in the top 10 and one to track. FIRMAMENT is top weigh; but that is because it usually runs in better races than this. It has good Course form, is actually well handicapped; the softer the better and the more onus on stamina the better, and very solid each way chances.

So my final 4 are (in order of preference)-:

MAKZEEM

REMARKABLE

FIRMAMENT

SQUATS

I have not mentioned the draw, frankly, I don’t have a clue how it will pan out and with respect; I doubt anyone who says they know; but my logic is simple, I marginally favour low and have horses drawn 1; 9; 25 and 4 respectively, and part of my logic is I have picked what I think are the best drawn low and the most likely drawn high and in stall 9 Remarkable will have options to go dead down the middle if that’s the place!

That’s all for today, I hope we can find some placed horses at least, a win would be frankly remarkable (no pun intended); but we seem to have a knack in these big field races and no lack of effort goes in to the analysis.

We will be covering one race each day at Glorious Goodwood where we had 5 winners from 5 races last year; no pressure there then!!! – tips will most likely be sent by 8.30am on the morning of the race although we may send late the night before IF we think there is a specific market advantage in doing so…

Have a great weekend and we’ll be back on Tuesday.

Regards

Ian

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Right, that is everything from me today. Good luck with any bets and there is sure to be a winner or ten mentioned below 🙂

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • Chris
    Great posting I had the 2 big price Haggas winners and an ew double, why didn’t I do the 3rd for an ew treble, I need my head tested, anyway thanks for the system.
    He has 4 tomorrow can he do it again?????

    Mike

    mickeydee 28/07/17 8:46 PM Reply


    • Blimey Chris… 3/3 on the Haggas micro 2 at 10s. Madness. Well done… Can you repeat the rules please when you get a chance. But enjoy your holiday. Haggis generally in cracking form again. Superb effort.

      Josh 28/07/17 8:54 PM Reply


      • Cheers, Josh. Having a break from the trends and the systems come out to play!

        C+P from 14/7/27 post:

        Haggas runners this time of year (July-Sept) in Class 1-3 races having finished 2nd/3rd/4th on their latest run. Averages around 10-12 qualifiers a month.

        2013: 23%, +22 BFSP
        2014: 32%, +52 BFSP
        2015: 30%, +4 BFSP
        2016: 27%, +19 BFSP
        2017: 75%, +5 BFSP

        Chris Baxendale 28/07/17 9:58 PM Reply


    • Haha yeah, I’m sure the playing only a double instead of treble decision has been justified many times before so hopefully this just balances it out! Multiples are great in hindsight but add up to many lost points almost every week. Plus the problem is a bit like playing the lottery with family birthdays – once you’ve done it a few times you feel trapped into playing it… just in case!

      Yeah looks like he has got 4 tomorrow so hope the ones I’ve posted below tally with yours.
      You’re welcome.

      Chris Baxendale 28/07/17 9:48 PM Reply


  • Few more for the Haggas system tomorrow.
    2.05 York, Battered,11/4.
    2.25 Ascot, Executive Force, 25/1.
    3.15 York, Hathal, 11/2 (also a pricewise pick so his advertised 13/2 may be honoured for short while in the morning)
    5.35 York, Validator,11/4.

    And one more for the Hannon system too:
    2.00, Chester, Buridan, 11/10.

    Chris Baxendale 28/07/17 9:39 PM Reply


    • Thanks for your efforts Chris. Hopefully we can find some nice profit in August with systems? I have a couple more to add and will likely post up Sunday or Monday.

      martin colwell 29/07/17 11:46 AM Reply


      • Cheers Martin.

        Chris Baxendale 29/07/17 9:40 PM Reply


  • Sorry lads no time to write .. Just few horses i fancy for SAT

    2:25 Ascot – EXECUTIVE FORCE 20/1 – Bet365
    3:35 Ascot – BANBATI 16/1 e/w Bet365 (maybe 20s if browse around other bookies)
    2:40 York – RASQUEE 20/1 e/w – Bet365
    5:00 York – APPOINTED 9/1 e/w – Bet365
    4:44 Chester – BERRAHRI 17/2 e/w Bet365 as at time of write up

    Saver bet – Staxton 3/1 WIN – (TD Easterby + D Allan both in very good form ATM)

    Goodluck to everyone with your betting selections!!!!!

    pablo 29/07/17 2:17 AM Reply


  • Morning everyone
    One I fancy for today is: Galuppi 5.30 Lingfield I can’t see anything getting even close to it. Good luck with your selections.

    Marcin Sudol 29/07/17 5:18 AM Reply


  • Interesting you flag Flying Pursuit in the trends for The Dash. Stall 1 can be an advantage there and horse likes plenty of cut, Trainer in great form as others have pointed out and tipped up by 2 different respected judges so I have had a small stake at 16/1 Good Luck all

    Colin Cross 29/07/17 8:54 AM Reply


    • Great tip there from my SP2A Daily tips – lets hope the SP2A Elite deliver for you all, great ride by Rachel Richardson and excellent trend pick from Josh; hope you are ON Josh!

      Colin Cross 29/07/17 2:48 PM Reply


  • Off on holiday now Grrr! Hope laptop works from ship.

    BOL all.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 29/07/17 10:26 AM Reply


  • hi josh

    i have been backing all ES FLAT for a while, every time i think to put more on, you say the losers will surely come, so dont put more on. what i am saying is please dont mention lot of losers due and i should then put more on!

    pendrem 29/07/17 11:28 AM Reply


    • Just keeping our feet on the ground… i havent found the magic money tree. upping stakes when you could be on the way to or at the Peak is never wise. It’s a 23% win sr which means there will be losing run of 10-25 at some point. We haven’t really suffered a proper losing run yet that is all. If you have an adequate bank it will all even out so do as you please! I prefer to be on the pessimistic side of things with systems..it makes the highs more enjoyable and the lows more bearable.

      Josh 29/07/17 11:51 AM Reply


  • Today’s racing kicks off an excellent week of racing with Goodwood and Galway occupying my time all week.

    Enable looks set to wing with weight for age, but the King George is a race for four year olds and so I would not take the 11/8. Some each way picks for me today.

    2.25 As Fire Brigade; 3.00 As Fastnet Tempest and Gossiping (Gary Moore fancy); 5.25 Nc Lady Joanna Varsa; 5.00 Yo Neshmeye.

    Good luck

    martin colwell 29/07/17 12:00 PM Reply


  • Just realised I had actually looked through, last week, the trends of one of the races today:

    2.25 Ascot.

    11 years – 136 runners

    Best in latest three runs, 2nd/3rd: 0/36
    Places at 1m, 1: 1/40
    Places in Class 2 or higher, 1:1/39
    Places in handicaps,1: 0/35
    Last run, Class 4: 1/33

    Fire Brigade (16/1) is the only who ticks all the boxes. Several miss out by one – of those preference is for Juanito Chico (11/2).

    B-)

    Chris Baxendale 29/07/17 12:08 PM Reply


  • hi josh

    sound reply, it was tongue in cheek really!

    pendrem 29/07/17 12:08 PM Reply


  • ITV 7
    13:50 The Princess Margaret Juddmonte Stakes (Group 3)
    Dance Diva 3-1 unbeaten and still improving.
    14:05 The Win £100K For Free At Sportinglife.Com/Pick7 Now Handicap Stakes
    Battered 3-1 proven over c/d on soft
    14:25 The Porsche Handicap Stakes 1m
    haggis/dwyer have been in spectacular form and Executive Force 25-1 might be the ew value.
    14:40 The Sky Bet Dash Handicap Stakes
    a right old cavalry charge with many in with chances but i’ll go for Snap Shots 10-1 and Al Qahwa 16-1 both ew.
    15:00 The Gigaset International Handicap Stakes
    even bigger cavalry charge and i’ll side with charlton’s runners Makzeem 8-1 and Yuften 16-1.
    15:15 The Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)
    can’t see anything beating Autocratic 7-2 but i’ll have a little ew on Central Square as well.
    15:35 The King George Vi And Queen Elizabeth Stakes
    boring choice but Enable 6-4 looks miles ahead in this.

    martin whittle 29/07/17 12:13 PM Reply


  • Hi all
    I like the big handicaps and love trying to unravel these races. I use stats, form,draw and a bit of gut feeling.
    The big sprint at Ascot is a real humdinger to solve, my long list had 15 in it and the shortlist had 8 so not much headway really.
    So I finally got it down to
    Sir Roderic who wins in July and is under the radar.
    Makzeem who is drawn 1 and is a worthy favourite.
    Johnny Barnes who will travel sweetly and hopefully save enough for a big finish.
    Good luck all.
    Dave

    David DICKINSON 29/07/17 1:27 PM Reply


  • GREAT SPOT Josh with Stamp Hill; hope you had a few bob on it, mare of a race for the favourites and fancied runners, managed to collect a bit of 5th place money with Paddy P on Firmament at 33’s but STAMP HILL wins for the trends…great work!

    Colin Cross 29/07/17 3:10 PM Reply


  • back the Shortlist discards and we find Flying Pursuit WON 12/1…& Stamp Hill WON 50/1…wonderful picking, Josh

    norman 29/07/17 3:10 PM Reply


  • well done Josh was on luvly jubbly 🙂

    i have a sub on here and geegeez was wondering what u use for trends ?

    as i used a few sites bar your’s no one else had it and it’s an angle i love but obviously different sites use different trends 🙂

    Dan 29/07/17 3:21 PM Reply


  • well done josh 🙂

    was on luvly jubbly

    the trends u use where are these from if u don’t mind me asking

    am a i paid subscriber on here and geegeez and wasn’t sure if these where from geegeez or not – i use trends myself but the sites i use had different ones so i am glad i checked here 🙂

    Dan 29/07/17 3:29 PM Reply


    • HI Dan… all the trends are researched myself, using my own unique template approach – albeit what with Chris’ sterling effort, and a question Nick asked about ORs, I have started to incorporate the odd other angle. I use HorseRaceBase for trends research. It works for me. Some trends analysis can be useless, taking too simplistic a view/angles etc.

      Josh 30/07/17 8:56 AM Reply


  • sorry mate seem’s to have posted twice 🙂 1st didn’t show so had to write it all again haha

    Dan 29/07/17 3:29 PM Reply


    • Oh it’s not you. I had to approve your first comment, if first ever one under email add you used etc. A spam measure.

      Josh 29/07/17 3:57 PM Reply


  • You’ll be pleased to hear I backed both! More on other main fancies but I’ve finally learnt to just trust the stats shortlist. That was fun. 3/3 at York as I write. A good day out. Plus the 50/1 job… I don’t want to know BFSP haha. Lovely.

    Josh 29/07/17 3:31 PM Reply


    • Josh lad top draw with Stamp hill £5 fun bet at bfsp 137.97/1 hahaha think will have to find you in Ibiza and buy you a few beer 😉

      Gavin 29/07/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • great performance Enable, now can she win an Arc from a wide draw?

    jamesm 29/07/17 3:47 PM Reply


  • Cracking bit of systems/trends work there Josh with Stamp Hill, respect and well done. There is clearly a place for form analysis and for systems and trends analysis; and my SP2A Daily Tipster boys picked Flying Pursuit today; which you also highlighted on your systems/trends; it is great when they both pick the same horse and should I think add extra confidence.

    Stamp Hill though is BIG WIN for the systems/trends angle, as I have to say if I’d have had 20 form picks, it would have been impossible to have picked that one out, and it is the reason why the systems you use, and more importantly the interpretation you apply to it is such a winner.

    I can only apologise for the fact that the SP2A ELITE had an off day today, we were pushing our luck I suppose having found Zhui Feng and Out Do BOTH AT 25/1 at Royal Ascot, although with a number of bookies paying odds to 5th TODAY; Firmament at 33/1; would have covered the each way stakes of the selections, and i do say “if you can’t win, don’t lose”.

    Some see form and systems officianados as sworn enemies, personally my only enemy is the bookie; and credit where it is due today, and the more money we make, the better; and over a period of time, i believe form and systems can work very well together well done again today…outstanding

    Ian SP2A 29/07/17 3:58 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Great trends, always follow your shortlist on sliding scale to prices
    Had the winner 2nd, 4th and 5th. Sportbook paid 5 places.
    Bank topped up for Goodwood and Galway.

    Mike

    mickeydee 29/07/17 4:07 PM Reply


  • Josh.
    Well done with Stamp Hill and your other winners. The best I did was Johnny Barnes in 4th. Thanks for all your hard work and keep those videos coming. It’s good to see how you perceive a race especially as you like to crack the big handicaps as I do.
    Dave

    David Dickinson 29/07/17 9:35 PM Reply


    • Thanks David. Yep there will be more to come with the videos. My buzz comes from solving the puzzle,genreally and race by race,or trying to at least. Those races are the hardest to crack and I just can’t resist. I’d be useless without my stats etc. All credit to any form judges etc who attack those races cold and do well over time. But it works for me.

      Josh 30/07/17 1:34 PM Reply


  • is this the same david Dickenson who used to write for raceform on a Saturday? if so his tips were outstanding.

    david bright 30/07/17 1:28 PM Reply


    • Josh
      Will there be videos for Goodwood?
      Dave

      DAVID DICKINSON 30/07/17 10:55 PM Reply


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