Members Daily Post: 28/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Thirsk 

2.20- Stripey (2YO) 9/1

4.05 – Dusty Blue (micro runs) I1 G3 8/1

5.05 – Quiet Warrior (micro runs) I3 16/1

 

Ascot

1.40 – Give And Take (2YO) 14,30 9/1

2.10 – Strategic (2YO) 14,30 3/1

3.55 – Sennockian Star (micro runs) 14 I1 14/1

 

Newmarket (July) 

6.40 – Desert Mountain (2YO) 14,30  6/1

7.40-

Oh It’s Saucepot (all hncps+ micro TJC)  ES G3  8/1

Street Marie (3yo+) 14 4/1

 

Chepstow

6.20 – Cooperess (3yo+) G1 8/1

7.20 – Peak Storm (3yo+) I3 16/1

7.50 –

Swendab (3yo+) I3 16/1

Kinglami (3yo+) 11/2

8.20 –

Aylas Emperor (all hncps+ micro going) ES H3 20/1

Ring Eye (3yo+) I3  7/1

 

York

6.30 – Interlink (micro runs)   16/1

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter 

4.15 – Miss Spent (micro 90 days) 14,30  7/4

5.15 – The Black Squirrel (NHF) 11/4

 

Bonus 

6.05 Wexford –

Redmond Hall (all hncps) ES  12/1

Wild Desire (all hncps) ES  14/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated)

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

NONE

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Wednesday was a bit of a ‘meh’ day, as I write.  Another bit of door knocking for a few of them. Four 2nds and a 3rd.  Jay Kay… still scratching my head.. no idea why they didn’t try and make all here. My good pal Ben Aitken tweeted me equally bemused…and then we pondered whether they may be teeing him up for a return to Ayr.. and on closer inspection..in flat handicaps he is 4/12,8p at the track and 3/6,5p over 7f. All his flat handicap wins have been in July and August as well.. 3/8,5p in August. So, one for the tracker. The cliff edge isn’t in sight just yet with him…if he returns to Ayr/7f next month I won’t be able to resist. He is very well handicapped now. And if there is no pace in the race even better. He could just be regressive. Strangely well backed today, in the context of the tactics and how he ran. 

On closer inspection (thanks Ben!) OR 69 or less | 7f-1m0.5f | C5 or below Hcps (less than 3.5k) | July-Aug | Not G/F = 1873111111 (7/10 – All 7 career wins). Noted. 

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Notes…

A few points of interest today, to use, abuse, ignore as you please…

7.40- I suspect if Oh It’s Saucepot wasn’t an ES qual, or there wasn’t another qual in the race, she would have been close to ‘bet of the day’ territory – unexposed, conditions seemingly fine, more to come, 6/1+. She isn’t quite doing anything different from LTO albeit that was seasonal debut, and that last run was on the Rowley Mile. The 70 day break concerns me and has meant I have’t gone ‘all BabyFact’ on this one- She has either had the break due to a problem (market may guide if so,as to her readiness,a drift and the binoculars may be needed in the final furlong) or they really like her, and due to her age, a hard run on soft after a break, they decided to give her time. That is possible and the trainer knows the family well having trained her mother. It is a niggle though  and he is only 6/88,24p, with flat ‘cappers 60+ days in the last 5 years. On the plus side Wall is 5/24,6p with horses making second start in a handicap and his are going ok, 1/9,4p last 14 days. Deadly Ted is also back- not sure if he has been abroad or suspended but he hasn’t been riding much here in recent weeks. The winner of her last race dotted up again at Newbury last night,so there is some substance there. You can make a case. IF she is a1 and ready to go she should run her race.

Of equal concern is Johnny Gs horse and I have had a muggy saver at 4s- i’m not sure if I back many winners that are ‘savers’- it’s a cowards way out for not having a strong enough opinion on a main fancy I suspect 🙂 But she is unexposed and ‘could be anything’ on handicap debut. No distance move but I expect an improved performance. The ground is an unknown. They are due more rain and it could be proper soft. That unknown would stop me personally wading in at 4s, 7/2. But, with any luck the ES wins, and if not this one takes the spoils. It is a race full of unexposed types and I probably haven’t mentioned the winner, and in general in those races that is why I like a price. We get it with the ES qual.

Others that caught my eye…

Peak Storm…

Hmmm. I had a look at this one’s form on soft ground/7f/Chepstow…   2,1,1,1,5,6,2,2,6….   the last of those placed efforts was in September, in a C4, off 79. With the claim it was 74. With the claim here he runs off 60. While he has very very old form on Good to Firm (as I searched for an excuse for recent poor efforts) all of his most ‘recent’ form has been with cut. His old legs either need it softer these days, or he needs it to slow down the rest. Along with Flood Defence (aptly named) he is the only proven soft (or even heavy) ground winner in this race, which is a positive. My hunch says he could just be out of form, but you can see why i couldn’t resist a speculative nibble. EW may be wise – if he runs badly in these conditions, given what we know,and his plummeting mark, then it is safe to say he is out of sorts. He did have these conditions in a C4 four starts ago, off 77. He is effectively 17lb lower here, in a C5.

Ayla’s Emperor is an ES qual and if you back those systematically there is no reason to talk yourself out of a hopeful punt. She drops in class here, 3/6,4p C6 on the flat, 3/4 returning 8-15 days since last run. Soft ground is no problem. The unknown is the trip – first run at 16f on the level. She has won hurdles races over 20f but the pace of those is very different,or can be. But, it is an unknown, and a possible reason for an improved performance. Or she won’t stay. But she is 20/1, not 7/2. Trainer/Jockey are 1/6,3p on the turf. There are reasons to be hopeful, rather than expectant.

Finally..

Interlink... in the big field sprint handicap at York… he makes his 4th start for Appleby and is only 0/4,2p on the turf. That caught my eye. Simply because we don’t know what he could become on grass, and it is possible/likely, we haven’t seen the ceiling of his ability yet. He ran well the last day over 5f, staying on. This return to 6f will suit. He can race up there. It is also his first try in a big field, straight track, handicap- these types of races can transform a horse- especially if they go a good gallop- running in a strongly run race for the first time can sometimes unlock something. It may be what he has always wanted. This jockey,while not getting any wins on the board in recent weeks, has been seen to good effect- esp on the yard’s Big Country in the John Smith’s Cup the other week. There are 4 places to aim at,which tempted this rare EW punter into a small EW wager. I simply can’t say he that he cannot get involved here, given that profile. And as he is 16s, my hand has been forced! It could be he simply isn’t up to this level, but there is only one way to find out.

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So, a handful of interest at a price. They may all fall out the back of the tv- when you play at those prices that is more likely than not- but you don’t need many winners at those odds, over time, to do ok. And big priced winners are the most enjoyable to cheer home. Well, for me anyway. I can’t stand the 6/4 ‘boooom boys’, the bookies love them. Their betting bank is only going one way over time.

Good luck with any punts today.

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The weekend.. I am off on a last minute trip to York on Saturday. A friend is on leave from the Navy, let out of his submarine, and has bagged some tickets for the County Stand (shirt/tie/jacket a must, apparently). So, I will have a focus on that card. Do say hello if you are there/see me. There is the SkyBet Dash which I will look at on the Free post no doubt, and the International Stakes from Ascot which is a decent handicap. Finding another Classic Seniority would be welcome. I may try and record a video if I can get the tech working, it has been a while. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

2.45 Ascot – Isharah / Mister Manduro

3.55 Ascot – Galapiat

4.20 Ascot – Yalta

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Jumps Elite Squad… (ES)

These are 37 bets / 4 wins / 13 places (inc wins) -9.8  … since the start, at same time as Flat… I use the same criteria as per flat ES report above. The place % is starting to give me confidence and plenty have run well at decent prices. It should only be a matter of time but some caution. I’ll re-asses at 50 bets mark but with any luck these will be a cornerstone of the winter stats approach.

Galway Notes Read HERE>>>

Six trainers of interest there with a variety of interesting ‘positive pointers’. They look good on paper and we shall find out next week if they help highlight any decent priced winners.

ELITE SQUAD (Flat)… BETFAIR SP…

I have had a look at this and as of the close of play Sunday, (as per results link in Key above) these were showing a profit of +37 points to BFSP. (after commission) So, 10 points behind generally available morning prices/BOG. Still pretty decent, so far.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • oops, you got racing on again?

    N 6.40 – Desert Mountain (2yo)

    U 4.15 – Miss Spent (LTO)

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 27/07/17 7:13 PM Reply


    • Nope, complete silence, and tried to concentrate! God help me. I think before I used to go through everything twice but maybe in the back of my mind i know your beady eyes will keep me on track. Or I am just useless. I am worse when I start looking later in the day, maybe the mind was on a downward spiral for the day.(or more of one than usual!)

      Josh 27/07/17 7:26 PM Reply


      • ………my family crest is a falcon.

        Using them eyes and having an at times infuriating love of number crunching (ask the wife, she gets really pissed off when I chuck a bag of peanut treats [m&m’s to you youngsters] over her and count them as I eat), I’ve noticed a potential fattener of the bank with the ES quals. There’s not enough data there to wave a magic wand but some food for thought.

        Since the 24th June to 27th July with a bank of 100pts using 10% of bank to cover the days bets ( ie: day 1 = 5 bets @ 2pt) it would now stand at 312pts using win only bog odds. There have been blank days and it’s only a small sample but worth keeping an eye on. A 5%daily spread would have doubled the bank in a month as there were 6 days of no flat racing or quals.

        I know there is an inherant focus here on level stakes profit for long term sustainability and I would not advise any deviation from that ethos, but it might be fun to play with a small side bank.

        Mike
        ps..If I’ve seen the bottom of more glasses than I thought and I’m only making sense to myself ………..uh

        titus_a_duxass 28/07/17 12:25 AM Reply


        • I don’t think I have a family crest, but on recent efforts it would probably be more mole, than bird of prey!
          Your next sentence or two made me spit out my coffee haha. 🙂

          Interesting staking idea… I will forever record/promote everything to 1 point win bets, but I won’t stop members devising their own cunning plans, always interested in ways to boost the bottom line. It is only an incessant focus as it is the fairest way to measure a systematic approach, or any approach for that matter, and straight forward.

          So, is this correct..on that working you have 31 points today.. split between the two flat ES quals, 15.5 points each? Gulp. 5% bank maybe better moving forwards… well, we haven’t had a proper losing run yet and we will have won. 10% bank could reduce those gains in quick time. But, for a bit of fun it is very interesting. +212 points is healthy!

          GL today.

          Josh 28/07/17 9:11 AM Reply


          • you are correct with todays stake.

            It is too early to make any assumptions and if using an online bookie it is a sure way of getting flagged for ‘irregular betting patterns’ unless it could be spread around. I’ve only got 2 unrestricted a/c’s left so would have to use the shops.
            Longest blank days is 2 but doubt that will continue. There have been a few nr’s after getting early odds which haven’t impacted on the bottom line but might do.

            I would be very wary of relying on the results to date and rushing in but I’ll use a beer money bank and probably 5% on the high st from Monday and report back.

            titus_a_duxass 28/07/17 10:34 AM Reply


  • Some stats/trends for SkybetDash/ Ascot for you early birds… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/07/28/free-daily-post-290717-upd1/

    Josh 28/07/17 11:43 AM Reply


    • Cheers Josh 🙂

      Gavin 28/07/17 12:37 PM Reply


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