Members Daily Post: 27/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

3.15 – Chunky Funky Monkey (all hncps) G3 10/1 WON 5/1 (50p R4) > 4/1 

4.25 – Shyarch (micro dist) 16/1 2nd 8/1 (20p R4, 12.8/1>8/1)

 

Sandown

3.40 –

High Draw (all hncps) 16/1  UP

Eynhallow (micro age) 14,30 H1 I1 5/6 2nd

5.15 – Jay Kay (all hncps) I3 G1 7/1 UP 7/2*

*urgh… why he hasn’t tried to make all I have no idea, winner has got an easy lead and led all the way, that was meant to be him!- but way he responded to pressure suggests he may just be out of form. Or sulks. Halved in price, the only ‘positive’. 

 

Newbury

5.30 – Meyandi (3yo+) 14 5/2 2nd 

8.40 – Captain Hawk (all hncps) I1 G3 16/1

 

Doncaster

8.20- Dandyleekie (micro class) 9/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

1.50 –

Ballypoint (all hncps + hncp chase) 30 ES 9/1 2nd 8/1 

No Through Road (hncp chase) 12/1 UP 16/1

2.55 – Magical Thomas (hncp hurdle) 10/1 UP

3.30-

Bring Back Charlie (all hncps) 30 ES H3 I3 13/2 UP

Code of Law (hncp hurdle) 14/1 UP

Willyegolassiego (hncp hurdle)  H1 7/1 UP

State The Obvious (micro class) 11/4 2nd 11/4

5.05 –

Little Pop (all hncps) 30 ES H3  7/1 3rd 10/1 

Full (hncp hurdle) 15/2 UP 7/2

5.40-

Bermeo (hncp hurdle) 11/1

Mister Dick (micro class) I1  20/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>  (updated)

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/54,20p, -5.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/115, +20.6)

No ‘tip’ today again, but some notes…

Flat…

It’s hard to be confident on much today for me but..

The unexposed ones… lightly raced/could show more one day…

Shyarch – having his second handicap start (trainer 0/12,2p with those having second run in a handicap,last 2 years) but he did show some promise LTO- he was slow away and was stuck in a pocket for a time near the business end. When he got out he ran on well enough, going forwards at the finish. That was after 56 days as well. He runs as if he wants 7f to my eye and my concern is the lack of searing pace in this race (on paper at least- there are a handful that have front run but that are also happy track, maybe there will be a ‘burn up’) – suspect something may have a quicker change of gear. On the plus side trainer/jockey are 4/26,9p in turf handicaps, 3/11,4p at track. Trainer is 6/28,10p, +44 with 3 year olds at the track, in handicaps, last 5 years. So, there are some positives. And maybe he was just green the last day. I think he will be staying on late again but he is a decent price and may be worth a small wager. Nowhere near the Babyfact confidence levels, as has questions etc, but you can make a case. Albeit my ‘confetti’ bets didn’t pull up any trees yesterday. (1/4s, 1/2s points sprayed around etc)  He could just be very moderate.

Meyandi- he is in the unexposed camp making handicap debut, stepping up in trip. So, those boxes are ticked. I think he is a silly price personally. Maybe he hacks up and wins like an evens shot but he has fitness to prove, and stamina, and the ground is an unknown. Such reasons are why I like 6/1, 8/1+ on such types, backing them in the home they get punted in and hack up. But, he is unexposed. When flicking through the race with geegeez cards, Take Two jumped out on the ‘instant expert’ tab and if you had to play in the race may be worthy of closer inspection. Possibly.

Captain Hawk- 0/7,0p in career… lightly raced but hasn’t done much as yet and I am not sure why he will today. His rating is now 8lb lower than when making handicap debut three starts ago. He pulled like a train the last day in first time CP. There is a chance that he settles in them better today. I also think this race is there to be stolen from the front and sending a keen sort forward in the hope they settle better is always an option. It can light them up more though. Depends on the horse. Clutching at straws maybe and the yard isn’t exactly firing, 0/20,8p last 14 days. He is 4/13,5p all runners at the track in the last year. Again, not one to go mad on if you place but he is a strat 2 qual at least. They may all be chasing Hugo’s horse but don’t let that put you off punt, you have to take these on.

Been there and done it…

Jay Kay – I am being disciplined now with my ‘bet of the day’ on the flat, at least until i get that PL fig looking a bit healthier- unexposed/6/1+ the main starting point. This one is far from unexposed but you can make a decent case. He is a strat 2 also- has top geegeez speed figure and I hope they try and make all- all of his wins are when making all, or being so close to the pace he takes it up 2/3f out. He wont mind the soft turf and he is well handicapped again. The hood also returns having done far too much the last day without it. He was an ok second 4 starts back and is now 6lb lower. Every little helps. And that was in a C4. So, the hood and dictating from front could be reasons for improvement. Also, the yard is in better form. Burke is 3/13,4p in the last 7 days. In the 23 days before that he was 2/53,8p.  I think they are going better than they were! Maybe that is an excuse for recent poor runs since that decent second. There is enough there for a bet and maybe I will start using bold as an indication of my confidence levels compared to others. That may be useful, it may not. It worked yesterday, a good start. 

Jumps…

My word this is a shocker of a card. Roll on October. Just awful. A general point- I noted that Dan Skelton comes here mob handed. His yard is flying and must be in the best form of any trainer on show today. He also has a few running for the first time, taken from other yards. He does very very well with new recruits, as an aside. I’d be shocked if he didn’t have 1-3 winners today, what they are is a different question and i’ll leave that to you 🙂

1.50 – in saying that there is a chance his hacks up in this race – but he can hit a fence, or did for old connections. If he stays on his feet he may go very close. The race is so so poor that something has to win it- Ballypoint was going better than he had been the last day, before taking a fence home with him. Game over. He was rated 124 over hurdles! 124. 0/5,0p chasing, he may just be no good. But i wouldn’t fall off my seat if he went close in this race. And you can make some sort of case for No Through Road on very old form but he is getting on now. Not a race to go mad in. Dire stuff.

3.30- StateTheObvious… I will just mention that the horse he chased home LTO, Shanksformillion… runs in an earlier race. If he runs well/wins that, then this one’s chance is clearly enhanced. Not that he’s a massive price, but something to keep an eye on anyway. Another poor race and I’m not sure I can bring myself to bet in it. I’m not backing all 4, and if I picked one it would be the wrong one. If one wins so be it, not sure i’ll be on!

5.05 – Full.. i think he has issues but he is lightly raced for this yard and I was on him LTO- he took an almighty walk in the market suggesting he needed the run after nearly 3 months off. He has broken blood vessels in the past and not one to trust. But he travelled up really well the last day before emptying 1 from home. I may have a small dart to see if I can get that losing bet back.

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Right, that’s it for my thoughts on that lot.

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Jumps Elite Squad… 

These are 34 bets / 4 wins / 11 places (inc wins) -7.8  … since the start, at same time as Flat… I use the same criteria as per flat ES report above. The place % is starting to give me confidence and plenty have run well at decent prices. It should only be a matter of time but some caution. I’ll re-asses at 50 bets mark but with any luck these will be a cornerstone of the winter stats approach.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Galway Notes:  Read HERE>>>

Six trainers of interest there with a variety of interesting ‘positive pointers’. They look good on paper and we shall find out next week if they help highlight any decent priced winners.

Goodwood… those notes are nearly done. Mark Johnston is the main focus and I just want to home in on a ‘micro system’ or two- but plenty of tasty pointers. Also a handful of pointers for Gosden/Stoute/Balding/Hannon. I’ll get those complete in good time.

One of my main tasks tomorrow is to write my monthly 2000 word article for the Betting School/Insiders Club, which they let me share with you. Part of that will be notes for York’s Ebor Meeting in August.  I will also take a look at any August/Sept/Oct trainers on the flat – and latter half of the season specialists, as well as a trainer or two ‘in focus’. I may have a closer look at Charlie Appleby and see if any ways in with his – mainly as he has plenty of decent priced winners of big races, esp handicaps- well they stick in the mind anyway. We shall see what the stats say!  

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ELITE SQUAD (Flat)… BETFAIR SP…

I have had a look at this and as of the close of play Sunday, (as per results link in Key above) these were showing a profit of +37 points to BFSP. (after commission) So, 10 points behind generally available morning prices/BOG. Still pretty decent, so far.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • I will be having a small interest in Dealing River 5.05 Worc.There are a few concerns,Bailey isn’t exactly knocking in the winners at the moment,but then again with her small stable she is always going to be sporadic,the other concern is that this may just be a pipe opener for a future campaign over fences but at 16 worth a stab given going(if rp going can be trusted) distance and course all fine

    gearoid180468 26/07/17 7:33 PM Reply


  • Re Shyarch in the 4.25 some interesting breeding stats on this horse:

    Dam is Coconut Shy has had 3 foals Shyren, Shypen who also has the same sire Archipenko & this one Shyarch. All of their wins have come at Yarmouth, which is the closest of the turf tracks to the all weather as so sandy, and on the all weather at Lingfield & Wolvs.

    Shyron started off a mark of 59 won twice and placed once as a 3yr old rated 75 + end of that year.

    Shypen opened 71 won 3 times as a 3yr old twice here at Yarmouth finished that year off 81

    Looks a good amount of pace on & looked like it finally twigged what it had to do LTO, off a mark of 55 jockey taking off 5lb looks workable, and at 16/1 looks worth an ew bet

    jamesp 27/07/17 9:39 AM Reply


    • good stuff James.. yep I agree, think there is enough there for a nibble, I had a dart- a foolish on the nose wager! With any luck he is in the mix and at that price was worth something. Hopefully they do go a pace- a few have led, not many consistently lead so we shall see. The faster the better for sure.
      GL.

      Josh 27/07/17 11:17 AM Reply


      • Damn Shyarch collared late on, thought we had it there 🙁

        JamesP 27/07/17 4:33 PM Reply


        • Me too….. EW was ok but….thought it was in.

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 27/07/17 4:54 PM Reply


          • yep, all got a bit tight – from that draw it was a good ride, but coming down middle, ‘around runners’ may not have helped and hit front soon enough – through no fault of rider. Had nothing to cover behind on wing as those around went backwards. Looks like he would devour 7f I think. They’ll find a weak enough race, may be not 16s/12s again soon though. More door knocking.

            Josh 27/07/17 4:57 PM Reply


  • Does anyone know if i can bet from a ship…on it’s way to Canada…. very unclear the info i got.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 27/07/17 5:28 PM Reply


    • Hmm.. there are options I believe
      I’m sure some of them are fine abroad, thought Bet365 was,or PP, one of two is fine I think.
      Others prob know more…

      Josh 27/07/17 5:30 PM Reply


    • What I do is, I leave my desktop running with TeamViewer running on it, then I connect to that via my laptop with team viewer running on it too, you are then using your home Internet, If you understand what I mean.

      Gavin 27/07/17 6:39 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the info…..I’ll try all.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 27/07/17 8:00 PM Reply


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