Free Daily Post: 27/07/17 (complete)

No micro system qualifiers.

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5.15 Sandown.. a note on Jay Kay from the Members’ Post, who I put in ‘bold’- which may be some indication of mild confidence. It worked with yesterday’s notes anyway, 2/3, winners at 5/1 and 11/2 as posted on here…

Jay Kay –

*urgh… why he hasn’t tried to make all I have no idea, winner has got an easy lead and led all the way, that was meant to be him!- but way he responded to pressure suggests he may just be out of form. Or sulks. Halved in price, the only ‘positive’. 

I am being disciplined now with my ‘bet of the day’ on the flat, at least until i get that PL fig looking a bit healthier- unexposed/6/1+ the main starting point. This one is far from unexposed but you can make a decent case. He is a strat 2 also- has top geegeez speed figure and I hope they try and make all- all of his wins are when making all, or being so close to pace he takes it up 2/3f out. He wont mind the soft turf and he is well handicapped again. The hood also returns having done far too much the last day without it on. He was an ok second 4 starts back and is now 6lb lower. Every little helps. And that was in a C4. So, the hood and dictating from front could be reasons for improvement. Also, the yard is in better form. Burke is 3/13,4p in the last 7 days. In the 23 days before that he was 2/53,8p.  I think they are going better than they were! Maybe that is an excuse for recent poor runs since that decent second. There is enough there for a bet and maybe I will start using bold as an indication of my confidence levels compared to others. That may be useful, it may not. It worked yesterday, a good start. 

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Betting Shop Characters from years gone by…

I don’t know if you’re on the Daily Punt email list, I think you should be. Or in any case read the blog from time to time. One David Massey (well known in racing circles and a fine judge of a bet) writes regular columns for them and there is always something interesting to read. (same chaps are behind the Betting School/Insiders Club) The last couple of days he’s told a few stories about his days in betting shops and some of the characters he knew/would see. I found them an enjoyable read and you may do too…

First post: READ HERE>>>

Second post: READ HERE>>>

(they are brief) You can access all posts HERE>>>

(none of those are affiliate links etc, just posted as I enjoyed the read and thought you may too…) 

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Jack Lander... is walking some more…

This kid is one little trooper. He is raising money again for the Injured Jockeys Fund and Racing Welfare, two worthy causes we should all support from time to time. A few months ago on here I promised to make a donation to the IJF around the time of Freddy Ts injury at Kempton. As of yesterday I still hadn’t done so. Poor. And in truth I don’t think I had ever donated to either charity, which in my mind was just plain wrong, given the part racing plays in my life. But, I’ve corrected that now by donating to Jack. He deserves the support. (he’s raised £5 700 or so to date)

He has 80 miles left on this walk and if ,like me, you have never donated to those charities, you can support Jack and do so HERE>>> (if you so wish)

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Right, that’s enough for today.

GL with any bets,

Josh

 

ps. oh and the master big priced ‘free tipping king’  Gary Priestley has joined in a convo below, well worth a read….

 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • A couple for me tomorrow. Firstly I like the look of Fleetwood Jack in the 20:55 at Doncaster. Both the trainer and Mark Howard thought he was on a good mark before the start of the season so its interesting the trainer applies cheekpieces on his first run on soft ground (should suit based on breeding) this season considering his best run last year was on the surface. Was withdrawn when rearing in the stalls LTO having been backed from 11/1 to 3/1 so they clearly expected a big run. Tudhope rides the track well and has a decent enough 1/9, 5p record for his boss in handicaps here over the past year.

    I also like Jay Kay in the 17:15 at Sandown. Burke does well with his northern raiders (4/20, 8p +28 in the past 2 years in handicaps). The horse is below his last winning weight and 6lbs better off for his 2 places earlier this year. The track should suit his front running style with only one other potential front runner (who is ridden by a jockey who hasn’t won in over a year). He wont mind the ground either and I thought he rated like a solid e/w bet.

    nickmazur 26/07/17 10:15 PM Reply


  • Gary Priestley at it again yesterday with Breakheart 40-1 in the 6-00 Sandown must start doing these as advised on a regular basis but not complaining as my £1 ew returned £50 so a bit more in the bank for Goodwood/York.

    martin whittle 27/07/17 7:09 AM Reply


    • just a word of caution Martin – he is keeping going at the moment but personally I think now would be the wrong time to up stakes massively and dive in- this is either the peak or he is nearly at the summit, with nowhere else to go but down… your general point is valid- you either follow them all or not at all really – well I suppose you could try and add in own thoughts- i looked at Braveheart after he won and am not sure I would have ever backed him/picked him out personally! – he is on the most amazing run of all time, just incredible.
      But the caution comes from the maths… his long term SR is 1 in 15. In july he has been 1/7. That isn’t sustainable and at some point he just has to hit a losing run. It could be severe, or it may be spread out over a couple of weeks/months. I wouldn’t want you to say start upping to 5s or 10s just as he has a -100 point month- which it is more likely than not he will have at some point. He will hit a losing run of 30-50 again at some point also.
      Of course, that may not be anytime soon- his August is usually bloody good also! And while he is this red hot then much fun will be had by all. If you decide to follow, long term you will be fine, his long term record shows that. But his highs are high, and his lows can be very low, that’s my general point. And he is in the midst of his highest high ever, and for his 30 years as a punter.
      GL

      Josh 27/07/17 7:54 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh/Martin,
        In principle what Josh is saying is correct with every purple patch there has to be a baron run, when and for how long nobody knows, this unbelievable run could go on for another few weeks, well I hope it does as Glorious Goodwood is always good to me. Now isn’t the time to up stakes as the inevitable is on the horizon its just a fact(mathmatically & statistically so) I don’t know why as I do nothing different but as Josh said from 4500 selection win S/R is 1:15 currently 1:7.06 avg odds over 18-1. The only thing I will say though is the bad runs are never anywhere near as bad as the good runs but again that depends on when you jump in.No one likes losing or bad runs but they are part n parcel its how you prepare for them stick to you staking plan and don’t lose faith. If you start following at the end of a good run, the worst possible time, you’ll endure a tough start that will test the best resolve. Take Dec 2016 after a couple of good months if you start following last week in November through to mid Feb I was -124pts thats the worst segment so you would have had to be very unlucky to start following then but if you had the patience and the bankroll to stick with it you would now be +342 from that point so +218pts overall.
        My best 5 months far out weigh the worst 5..
        Best 5 besides current month July 2017 113-16-20-77 = +246pts
        No.select-win-pl-losers = P/L
        May 2016 141-14-29-98 = +173.6pts
        July 2013 67-11-14-42 = +166pts
        June 2016 135-13-27-95 = +111.76pts
        Aug 2015 105-5-26-74 = +108pts
        June 2013 125-13-16-96 = +101.05pts

        Worst 5..
        Jan 2017 102-5-11-86 = -75pts
        July 2016 152-10-17-25 = – 60.11pts
        Sept 2016 103-4-20-79 =-59.07pts
        April 2014 66-0-13-53 = -39.50pts
        Jan 2015 55-3-8-44 = -38.75pts

        As you can see the great far out weigh the bad for full set of all 52 months results http://www.tipstersreview.co.uk/gary-priestley-horse-racing-tips-results what both Josh and I are saying is owing to exceptional high of this peak the deepness of the impending trough should be significantly deeper than usual but that is assuming it will happen in one month and not stretched out over 6months. The only positive I can see right now is that I’ve never had a losing August(batten down the hatches).

        Thanks as ever Josh and we’ll do that follow up sometime soon.
        Regards
        Gary

        Gary Priestley 27/07/17 8:52 AM Reply


        • Firstly Gary my congratulations on an extraordinary performance.

          Secondly, my utmost respect for your honesty and integrity in pointing out the high’s and low’s of punting in general and your own personal experience.

          I did a little post about “drawdown” a few days ago to follow up some excellent thoughts from Chris.

          This is an excellent blog for excellent ideas from Josh and the likes of Chris; Nick; Gary and others and most welcome.

          I ALWAYS view tipsters; systems; pundits with the same angle, how high are their highs, how low are their lows and my tipster/system strategy is born out of too many mistakes to list and too many painful experiences to recount, but finally after 30 odd years, with the small portfolio I have; I am getting there; thanks in part to this blog.

          My simple message is that tips/tipsters/systems/trends like shares can go up as well as down and by using level stakes staking, a disciplined betting bank and listening to people like Gary and Josh you have the best chance of success and “follow a good source” following a poor run, not at the top of the mountain as Gary says, as cream always rises to the top but can curdle, form is temporary, class is permanent …

          Good Luck and Thanks all…back to the holiday

          Colin Cross 27/07/17 9:55 AM Reply


        • Hi Gary,

          I have followed your tips for a few months now. Well done re your current streak. Do you analyse how your daily nap does against all selections? Maybe that is a way in for punters not wishing to back all your daily selections?

          Martin Colwell 27/07/17 10:28 AM Reply


          • Hi Martin

            I don’t keep seperate P/L for the naps but I know they perform very well this month alone 6 have been the nap. I’m not one to do Nap IWAC NB as I do all my bets to the same level stake but it was the most requested improvement I made so I implemented it earlier this year just hi-lighting the one I think has the best chance.

            Regards
            Gary

            Gary Priestley 27/07/17 12:05 PM Reply


        • Hi Gary, are your tips still free ? all so where can i find them ? Many thanks.

          jacobs123 27/07/17 10:39 AM Reply


          • Yep his tips are still free,always have been and I believe always will be- Gary would know if any plans to charge but I don’t think that has ever been the point/aim…

            You can follow him on twitter here… https://twitter.com/gary_priestley

            His tips get posted here… http://www.tipstersreview.co.uk/todays-free-horse-racing-tips

            Josh

            Josh 27/07/17 10:44 AM Reply


            • Hi Josh, thanks for getting back to me but when i click on that link it takes me to a betting gods add which led me to a 1£ trial. i must be having a senior moment or some thing i have all ways found it difficult to find his tips. Thanks David.

              jacobs123 27/07/17 11:55 AM Reply


              • hmm.. on my desktop that link definitely takes you straight to his tips! ‘today’s free horse racing tips’ – there are some ads down the right hand side,inc betting gods etc, but his free tips are there to my eyes! Not sure if different on mobile/tablet, but should be there.

                Definitely this link… https://t.co/Hl1i0iGgPq

                Josh 27/07/17 12:00 PM Reply


              • Just click no thank you and it will remove it thats just the host website @TipsterReview who does a fantastic job reviewing paid and unpaid tipsters.

                Cheers
                Gary

                Gary Priestley 27/07/17 12:01 PM Reply


                • Many thanks Gary, at last!! Kind Regards.David.

                  jacobs123 27/07/17 12:35 PM Reply


  • everything that can go wrong is going wrong at the moment The claimers
    are running like drains
    and I had a big bet on the football last night and the Brazilians defied the altitude and won
    after being a goal down.
    it is doing my head in a bit and I feel I am getting stressed rather than enjoying it
    so I think I need a few weeks off to clear my head and get a better plan.

    I don’t think the heavy losses are helping my thought process as while I am still doing the work the bets themselves have become a bit erratic.

    I have struck 42 straight losing bets and that is to many to be viable.
    hope to be back after a break but at the moment feel like I should take up knitting instead.

    peter walker 27/07/17 7:39 AM Reply


    • Sometimes a break can be good Peter, never a bad idea. Take your mind away from racing/analysis/betting for a while. I personally wouldn’t try knitting but that is just me haha.

      Josh 27/07/17 7:47 AM Reply


    • Take a break is not a bad idea for a few days. I also walk my dogs in between doing my analysis of a days racing and then backing them. It enables clearer thinking I find. What about yoga?? It is very popular theses days and does clear the mind if done properly.

      My comment yesterday about taking even money on the football after losing the first leg 4-0 was based on the statistics of such scenarios. I know that there was the altitude factor but stats are stats. In value terms I would pitch the home win at a 2/1 shot based upon the circumstances you described with the draw at 2/1 and the away win 6/4. My bread and butter is football and so I have lots of experience and data to fall back on.

      Good luck anyway. We all have bad runs and in my experience it is best to take a break, lower your stakes, think about your approach and then go back with confident selections.

      Martin Colwell 27/07/17 10:38 AM Reply


      • hi martin,
        do u mind sharing your football bets as well. i know u mentioned previously u bet large singles.

        danny3433 27/07/17 11:17 AM Reply


        • Yes i can share football bets as they are my own creation.

          It is where I get info on horses and are asked not to share I cannot post.

          I dont bet on friendlies and so I likely wont be doing much until the English season kicks off. If you were to force me on one today I would go Sion win.

          Martin Colwell 27/07/17 12:51 PM Reply


          • thanks i did bet over 2.5 goals for the game last night after reading your comments. will look out for the football bets if you do post on here.

            danny3433 27/07/17 1:23 PM Reply


      • Thanks Martin,
        I bet with my ideas and gut but when things go wrong emotions come into it
        and you can go from bad to worse.

        Never been much of a stats man but from what you say they give a much clearer
        picture.

        I was also thinking because I don’t know the South American teams and what each team
        strongest eleven is.

        My ideas may only be half correct.
        ok the Brazilians played at home on Sunday and lost and only had 2 days to recover
        but did they put a second string team in their league game and send their best players to acclimatise at altitude a week ago.

        Frankly I don’t know.

        What I now understand that when a mathematical expert or scientist have an idea
        before they run with it they have to prove it down to the enth degree.

        I think that’s why someone like Patrick Veitch is such a good punter he is a mathematician
        and doesn’t just have ideas and bet large sums on those thoughts without the strong stats and
        evidence to back them up.

        I am good at maths but haven’t got the dedicated pursuit needed to solve the problems
        I come up with loads of theories and ideas but I think being told I have a genius iq
        when I was younger has made me lazy.

        I believe in my 160 IQ but it has made me lazy, conceited and Arrogant
        I have fallen into the trap that because I am clever I should win and can’t understand why I am not.

        And have been to arrogant to realise that the only way to win is by sheer hard work
        Schiller stated that Genius is Concentration.

        as my Concentration is not up to the standard required then maybe I am a bit over confident in my genius
        and playing a dangerous game.

        Dostoevsky was the greatest writer of his time and an undoubted genius a far great mind then mine but was
        a terrible loser when it came to gambling he also had thousands of ideas on betting
        but lost badly.

        Peter walker 27/07/17 1:29 PM Reply


        • I think in gambling you need to use logic and knowledge and relevant information, including stats from a decent size sample which you do get in football and horse racing over time. Intelligence at a high level is not required and it may over complicate thinking? I can imagine that Dostoevsky did this? If you read ‘Fooled by Randomness’ by Nicholas Nassom Taleb he talks of examples of great thinkers who game unstuck gambling on the stock exchange and other markets.

          Martin Colwell 27/07/17 1:54 PM Reply


        • Who said 1% inspiration 99% perspiration??

          tonymc 27/07/17 4:59 PM Reply


  • awake early so time to have a quick look at Worcester.
    2-20. Thyne for Gold looks interesting @14-1 ew, just sneaks in to a C5 dropping back in distance from 3m1f lto to 2m4f today which should suit,ran a good race back in feb when 2nd in a c3 off 113.
    2-55.Seeanythinhgyoulike 6-1 ran a good race lto last month.
    3-30.a bit of a punt this but top weight Always Managing 11-1, ran a fair race lto over c/d and needed the run after a long layoff, back to her last winning mark of 98 could go close.

    martin whittle 27/07/17 8:14 AM Reply


    • Great shout Martin, well done! Top marks. There is ‘Gold’ in these here comments. Lovely job.

      Josh 27/07/17 2:31 PM Reply


    • Shout out to Martin whittle for the 2.20 at Worcester.
      BOOM

      warren bottonmley 27/07/17 2:33 PM Reply


    • Well done Martin. Looked at it myself last night and dismissed given the lack of chase form but writing was on the wall when they won the first race so should have had a nibble.

      nickmazur 27/07/17 2:43 PM Reply


    • great spot Martin well done, had received a tipster tip for Court Dismissed in first race and doubled up with yours, same Trainer/Jockey combo, may stay on holiday another week now THX!

      Colin Cross 27/07/17 2:43 PM Reply


    • Great shout Martin….I saw it to late…. sorting out holiday [bloody] packing. lol.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 27/07/17 5:03 PM Reply


  • Another for….ALL Gosden runners in July/Aug/Sept having had their last run more than 45 days ago.
    2014: 36% strike rate / +45 points BFSP
    2015: 35% / +69
    2016: 31% / +33
    2017: 30% / -3. (3 from 11 so far this year)

    6.00 Newbury , Qayes, 4/1.

    Chris Baxendale 27/07/17 11:52 AM Reply


  • Does anyone know if i can bet from Canada off a ship. B 365 natters something about IP address… Betfair no relavent page…..

    Any help appreciated.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 27/07/17 5:05 PM Reply


    • Betting via Oddschecker should work for 365. I don’t think you’ve got any chance with Betfair, unless you were to get a VPN subscription. Basically it’s a piece of software that makes it look like you’re somewhere else. So although you’re off the coast of Canada (very nice!) you can appear as if you’re in the UK.

      Neil 27/07/17 6:49 PM Reply


      • Thanks very much Neil…Betfair never even answered my query… B 365 said maybe depending on IP…or something…lol.
        I’ll have to resort to the gambling tables if no horses…..Now all i need is a system for the Roulette..?????/

        Cheers, Tony Mc.

        tonymc 27/07/17 8:48 PM Reply


        • Cyber ghost is free and easy way of using a UK IP address when abroad.

          Chris Baxendale 28/07/17 9:10 AM Reply


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