Free Daily Post: 26/07/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2016: 60+ Day Trainers

5.55 Naas – Hawaam (20/1<)

6.25 Naas – Mbaady (20/1<)

 

A Perrett All-Weather (12/1<)

5.20 Ling – Chaparrachik

 

**

Below are some notes from today’s Members Post. These thoughts relate to the stats qualifiers in section 1 of that post. These are my own subjective thoughts on what looks interesting to me. Importantly there are the advised systematic strategies, esp the Elite Squad which has had a flying start (+47 points in 34 days or so), which remove any subjective thinking. My aim is to try and use my own stats quals to build on those profits. Do with the following as you please but if anything you find it an interesting read…

Catterick…

Sir Geoffrey – just to mention his Geegeez Speed figure which is massive compared to the rest in here- a ’76’ where the next best is 59,and most a fair bit lower than that. He is 11 and the last two runs may suggest he is going off the boil but there is the odd valid excuse for those last two runs. Now he will try and make all and he usually blasts out the gate. He could get out and bag the rail. The speed fig suggests they may not live with him. The downside is there is plenty of other pace in here and if he gets into a battle early his chance will be ruined. And he is 11. You’d think younger legs will get him again today. But at 10s there is enough there for me to throw something at him.

Bold Spirit – well I think the fav has a very good chance in this but his price is short, he has had an odd no. of days off suggesting an issue and soft ground (there is rain around,should be on soft side…HorseRacebase has it as soft,albeit RP as good to soft for now..) is also a question. His speed fig is big in this compared to the others. But- Bold Spirit is interesting at 7s/8s – I don’t think he likes GF, now 0/10,2p in handicaps on it – i think you can ignore most runs on that surface. This is his first run this year over 6f with give underfoot. He has dropped 6lb since the start of the season and gets a useful claim. He is 2/7,3p over CD and is well handicapped. Indeed he won over CD last August off 59, in near identical conditions. With the useful claim he races off 50 today. He is handicapped to strike at some point. There is a chance he makes all also, or in any case tracks anyone who goes past him early. Out of the three in the race he looks the most interesting and I have had a dart at 8s. Poor sod, he’s done for now.

Canny Style – arguably looks the most interesting one of the lot… cue tailed off last… He has only had 2 runs over 11/12f in a C6, and won them both. While not unexposed in terms of his total career runs- albeit only 4 still, he is unexposed over this trip and in this class. He drops into a C6 here which caught the eye, from a C4. That is quite a drop. His best runs have arguably come with give in the ground also and he could relish underfoot conditions. His jockey also looks like a star in the making and is on fire- 4/7,6p the last 14 days. I don’t pay attention to much that Timeform say- their main products are a ridiculous price to my eyes- but many clearly love them. But I do like some of their jockey analysis and I did note that Jamie Lynch said that on a few measures this lad is already out-performing plenty of seasoned pros. He can ride, and with any luck can ride this one to victory. 11/2 was just about ok for me.

I should mention Cockney Boy in the same race, where the market may guide to his chance- it’s his first run for M Appleby and that is the ‘way in’. He is 12/42,18p, +34 with horses from other yards first time up for him, in the last year. 19/77,30p the last 2 years, +50. He can improve them and they can leave any previous form well behind. If you play in the race/on the one above, he may be worth a saver just in case. On paper you couldn’t give much chance but all previous form could go out the window.

Over to Bath..

Well Babyfact is a ES (Elite Squad) qual and looks to have a solid chance- not much to add. She is well drawn for the first time in a few starts from memory and can make all. They will make plenty of use and won’t mind any rain- guessing a bit at Bath as to how much will fall. It may stay good, I can’t think it will be worse than Good to Soft. Hopefully she goes well. May get collared by something with more in hand but she will appreciate this longer trip more than the bare 5f and usually tries her heart out.

Both in the 3.40 can be given a chance to my eye for one reason or another. Silver Link is unexposed over the trip. At the price I am a bit put off by the fact he lost a median auction maiden stakes LTO at 4/6, and a time the yard was red hot- they are still ‘in form’. That suggests he was fit but maybe he will come on for the run. Price is short for me in that context, but he could dot up. Stockhill Diva will appreciate the drop back in class and hard to say he can’t be in the mix. He’s an ES qual anyway and hopefully wins!

Over to Leicester…

Hajjam – i stared at him for a while. I think he could go close here. He is more on the unexposed side and is 6/1+. He was the first that was close to Bet of The Day Territory  (unexposed/6/1+)- but, he does have to prove he handles soft and he has to prove that he is up to C4- in the end those two things just nagged at my confidence for 1 point purposes. Maybe I have over-thought it. 8f on Gf may not have been idea the last day. They went a slow pace, he pulled for a bit, and then got trapped for most of the way up the straight. When he tried to get racing room he was bumped back behind the leaders. He handled cut at Wetherby a couple of starts back and ran well enough in a C4, having to run up the middle which may have been a slower part of the track. This is only his 4th handicap and first in open company, where he gets the allowances. I thought this bigger field and this stiff finish may be ideal over 7f, on what I have seen on video. IF he handles the rise in class, and actually does like soft ground! Maybe worth something at 8s, but I won’t be taking out a loan to back him. (clearly that’s never advisable! slow and steady :))

Dora’s Field- hmmm. The trainer form caught the eye here- 3/7,4p in the last 14 days, 4/16,6p the last 30 days. This will be only the 3rd start for the yard having shown the odd bit of promise for Ed Dunlop. Her two best runs have been over 10f with give underfoot and in C5 – which she gets today. She drops in class here and the trainer can ready they after a break. The niggle is that run LTO which was awful, and the break suggests something went amiss. So there are doubts there. She does get first time headgear also, so again ‘doing something different’. They may help albeit suggest connections think she could be doing more. I wouldn’t put 1 point on her, I haven’t, but again at 12s I probably can’t help myself for 1/2.

 

If I had a gun to my head, which is never an ideal situation to be in, I would say I’m most excited about watching Bold Spirit, Canny Style and Babyfact. You now know to focus on the rest! 🙂

**

GL with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Another qualifier for the Fahey system which is certainly overdue a winner!
    7.20 Leicester, Flyboy, 7/1.

    One for the Hannon system too – I forgot to mention his qualifier on Tuesday which got collared late on to finish 2nd at 5/1, touching 1.13 in-running.
    4.40 Bath, Sea The Sea, 5/1.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 26/07/17 12:18 AM Reply


    • Another cracker from you Chris… Cheers.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 26/07/17 4:44 PM Reply


  • 2 point win
    Tie em up tel 2.50 Lingfield 6/4 WIlliam Hill Corals and bet 365

    Clear on ratings by 6lbs TIE EM UP TEL is napped to win here
    two runs ago he hacked up in a Windsor seller and although his last run looks disappointing
    that was over 5f at Catterick where a lot of use was made of him from a wide draw.
    back over 6 furlongs today and in a small field where the draw shouldn’t be a problem
    he looks a very strong bet.

    review
    Six Silver lane ran a brave race but was touched off close home
    with the advice line now showing zero winners from 13 runs and a 16 point loss
    on recommended stakes.
    I feel I am letting the side down and if there isn’t a big upturn in results
    I will fall on my sword and stop wasting your time. saying that
    I really fancy Tie em up Tel today but I wouldn’t be offended if anyone who has
    being following my efforts was a bit disgruntled by now.

    peter walker 26/07/17 8:28 AM Reply


    • Keep going Peter,
      Enjoy your write ups and selections. It will all come good in the end.
      Pat

      P reilly 26/07/17 11:05 AM Reply


    • Hi Peter,
      Try and keep your head up.
      You started this experiment as you like claimers and had a decent enough private record etc. Posting publicly affects you mentally more than anything else, esp when losers a plenty. But you have to enjoy analysing the races, and if you do it will come right, as you will make it happen. Nothing is easy in this game, or well, in life generally. Hard graft the key. And timely reflection.

      I momentarily join opus dei when I tip a loser- part of me is still seething over the Nicholls winner on Saturday- and flog myself to death- through analysis. God I hate putting up losers. Albeit every 20 bets I place I probably lose 15-17 of them, and you can only metaphorically flog yourself so much. But I am hard on myself as I am a perfectionist and just hate tipping losers, esp if the winners were within touching distance.

      My ‘bet of the day test’ isn’t pulling up any trees on the flat at the moment, but I am confident in myself/ability to get that right over time. I did hit a losing run of 26 or so which ended a few days back,albeit I am back in the losing grove. But at the odds I play at, win%, that will happen.

      I would suggest just sticking to 1 point win bets, that may help. That is ‘only’ an 8 point loss or so. I personally don’t like playing at that top end of market as you have to be right so so many times- I don’t have the ability to be right that often, but many do.

      You can’t go chasing losses, just keep doing what has worked in the past, tweak things/review if necessary.
      You started as a test etc so no one should have dived in with wads of cash etc.

      Keep going,
      Josh

      Josh 26/07/17 11:07 AM Reply


    • Pete I agree with Josh,

      I was posting a test method up on the members page. I stopped posting as I was and still am playing around with my ratings, after it was not working out how I thought it would at first (Not giving up though I can see light at the end of the tunnel).

      You’ve just got to keep plugging on in this game, enjoy the highs and take the lows on the chin 🙂

      Keep going, as I too enjoy your reading your wright ups.

      Good luck for today 🙂

      Gavin 26/07/17 12:55 PM Reply


    • Hi Peter,

      Agree with the others. It is still early days for you and you are the one doing the hard work and putting up informative and well-researched articles. We can all make our own decisions on what to do with your analysis and tips. I always get frustrated on the rare occasions that someone has a lazy dig at Josh on this site when it is clear for all to see how much work, research and diligence goes into every day.

      In my experience, there are very few “tipping” sites that genuinely and regularly make their customers money (even the well meaning ones) simply because you tend to find the value has gone by the time it filters down and so I have by and large given up on that side of things and as one of the (generally) silent majority really enjoy the main editorial posts on here along with all the tips, picks, pokes and guest comments that offer a varied and valuable insight into each day’s racing.

      I hope for you that you have success but if not, don’t worry and as Josh says, trust the system that has worked for you.

      Cheers

      Ben

      921389 26/07/17 1:48 PM Reply


      • Thanks for all your support guys I am touched.
        another bad run today and it has been a disaster so far
        never had a run this bad and it coincides with putting it out their to the public.

        New respect to Josh how difficult the game is
        will cut back selections in every race.
        my bank balance has taken a big hit but my pride has been stung more than everything
        I have spent hours analysing these races but results are one of a complete donut
        with your backing I have decided to carry on but -18 points and zero winners
        is hard to be positive about

        peter walker 26/07/17 3:20 PM Reply


        • Yep it isn’t easy this putting the neck on the line stuff haha, but I enjoy the challenge and it is rare to get proper stick on here when it all goes wrong!

          I would seriously consider just sticking to 1 point win bets if I were you, esp until you bounce back into form/things start working – mentally if nothing else. If I got stressed every 9-25 point losing run i’ve had in my time to date I would have packed up a long time ago.

          Losing runs can affect how you look at a race – i have had moments where you try and find the easy way out, which normally means loading up on shorter priced ones etc. You just have to keep doing what has worked before and try not to think about the current run when attacking a race- as that does affect analysis. The mental side of this game is the toughest, but keep plugging away. Make sure you’re analysing results, or anything you may be missing/doing differently etc.

          A losing run of 9-12 or so isn’t much, but betting just 1 point may help, as you are doubling your current pain.
          Josh

          Josh 26/07/17 3:36 PM Reply


  • Tonight at 23.15 Univ Catolica play Fluminense in the 2nd leg of their Cupa Scudamerica tie

    The Brazilian side Fluminense won the first leg 4-0 and look almost assured of going into the next round
    but there are good reasons to side with the Ecudorians tonight at even money.

    Their home base is Quito which is one of the highest altitude venues in the world
    the Brazilians had a home game on Sunday so they have had no time to acclimatise
    to the thin air of Quito.

    It could be a step to far for Catolica to turn the tie around but at 4-0 down
    they will have to throw men forward to try and peg back the score.

    this could make for a fast open game with the Brazilian dangerous on the break
    so I expect plenty of goals.
    but with the lack of time to acclimatise to Quito the Brazilian could really
    be struggling and a high scoring win for CATOLICA is on the cards

    peter walker 26/07/17 9:59 AM Reply


    • Taking into account the altitude is even money value after losing the first leg 4-0? Maybe best to go over 2.5 goals?

      martin colwell 26/07/17 11:24 AM Reply


      • The key to me is how little time the Brazilians have had since their last match
        they played at home on Sunday.
        So will have had very little time to get ready for the thin air.

        over 2.5 goals may be the bet but They may decide to pack their defence
        and go away with a 0-0 0-1 0-2 type result
        4-0 makes the Brazilian look a league above the Quito side
        but the key factor to me when a lowland team go to altitude
        is when and where they played their last game
        if they played over a week ago or at another altitude venue
        they have time to get to the altitude base and get in a weeks
        acclimatisation.

        when they played Sunday the earliest they would have got to Quito
        is Monday so there is no way they will be ready
        I think that why they went all out in the first leg as they knew they would need
        a lead to bring here.
        Crazy as it seems for a team who lost the first leg 4-0 I think evens is big value in the circumstances

        if

        peter walker 26/07/17 3:31 PM Reply


      • The key to me is how little time the Brazilians have had since their last match
        they played at home on Sunday and will have had very little time to get ready for the thin air.

        over 2.5 goals may be the bet but They may decide to pack their defence
        and go away with a 0-0 0-1 0-2 type result
        4-0 makes the Brazilian look a league above the Quito side
        but the key factor to me when a lowland team go to altitude
        is when and where they played their last game
        if they played over a week ago or at another altitude venue
        they have time to get to the altitude base and get in a weeks
        acclimatisation.

        when they played Sunday the earliest they would have got to Quito
        is Monday so there is no way they will be ready
        I think that why they went all out in the first leg as they knew they would need
        a lead to bring here.
        Crazy as it seems for a team who lost the first leg 4-0 I think evens is big value in the circumstances

        if I was to forecast the score I would go for 2-0 and 3-1

        peter walker 26/07/17 3:35 PM Reply


  • good luck with all your picks today guys, I enjoy reading them!!

    Paul Ebrey 26/07/17 10:24 AM Reply


  • Baby Fact easy easy winner for everyone well done Josh.

    Andrew Gough 26/07/17 3:00 PM Reply


    • Cheers Andrew, you have to enjoy wins like that, the ones that are never in much doubt after about 1-2 furlongs and a question of how far. Always good fun. Hope you had a little nibble.

      Josh 26/07/17 3:04 PM Reply


  • Chris strikes again…Top work.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 26/07/17 4:53 PM Reply


  • Flyboy….just a sh head….so close.

    Well done Chris.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 26/07/17 8:13 PM Reply


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