Free Daily Post: 25/07/17 (complete)

a new post from Hugh… + 8/1 shot of interest….

No system qualifiers.

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Hugh’s Post… 

Hugh’s latest post on all things 2 year olds is complete and can be read HERE>>>

Plenty to take away including a few for the notebook. Also includes detailed paddock side reports with photos/notes.

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8/1 winner… hopefully…. 

Below is my ‘bet of the day’ from the Members’ post- which is still a ‘test’, esp the Flat side- it will all come together at some point, a few too many near misses at decent prices for my liking. Thankfully the core ‘strategies’ are flying along for the flat. I am also taking Nick on with one of his selections below- I may have a saver now (do ‘savers’ ever win?!)- but given how the form of the two ties in, with any luck there won’t be much between them,either way…

 

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/53,20p, -4.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/114, +21.6

8.50 Nottingham- Lady Natasha – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP

hmnm. Lady Natasha just appears a one paced plodder- but you get what you deserve if you hold one up that far back in a race with no obvious pace- stayed on well enough but was never going to get there. Tricky for the jockey given the draw- suppose you have one of two choices, the other of which is to burst out and try and get a handier position. But then you risk being 4/5 wide on the bend. That was predicted pre race but at 8s happy to take a dart. Winner dictated from the front. One of those where you can keep making excuses – certainly needs a stronger pace to aim at, and would be nice if they rode her more prominently so the energy was used to try and win, rather than to close leaders that are not stop

I’ll be having a go on this one at the price given this is only the 8th start of her life, there should be more to come at some point, and she is 6/1+/a decent price to my eyes. I think the ‘story’ of her recent runs makes sense and while it is never good to go looking for too many excuses I would hope for a better showing today.

So, the starting point was that she doesn’t have many miles on the clock. Next I noticed that she drops down in class here, back to C6 where she raced a couple of starts back. I also noted that she had been beaten by Incus at Donny, who then went on to win again and is currently fav here in an open looking contest.

That Donny run was decent. First it was her first run after a 222 day break and at one stage she looked like going all the way. The way she plugged on in the final furlong suggests she needed the run and/or that final furlong was just a bit too far. In any case there was a healthy gap from 3rd back to the rest and she wasn’t beaten up once the jockey knew the winning chance was gone. The winner would then follow up. I am not a big ‘pounds and measures’ punter- mainly as handicap chases are my fav race type and I pay little attention to weight/ratings in those, esp when expecting horses to reverse form etc. Jumping, for example, is much more important.

Anyway- in that Donny race, when you take account of claims etc the selection was giving the winner 14 lbs i think, today she ‘only’ gives her 6lb. Given that was the first run of the season I would like to think these two should be much closer – if running their races. Whether that is at the front come the death or mid division, we shall see.

The horse then returned 9 days later at Ayr, lugging 10-7 over 13f in soft. There is a chance she ‘bounced’ and combined with that big weight just had little petrol left when asked. She travelled well into the race and they all bumped into one there. It was a small field hack around as well, which I doubt suited this soft ground plodder.

The last day the saddle slipped forward and the jockey sent her forward in soft at Hamilton. She was a bit keen and I think the first time she had raced from the front. The fact Joe Fanning sat off her and in second may suggest he was going too quick – which given he was up her neck was no fault of his necessarily. Maybe that was her running but maybe it was a valid excuse.

So, we come to today. She gets a big field and hopefully they don’t dawdle albeit the race isn’t packed full of pace and given the draw will have to drop in- that is my main concern. But she is 8s and you can’t over think too much in that price range. Burke has been a bit quiet as well but did have a 1st time out 2YO winner the other day. There is also a jockey change, with a fully fledged pro up top. These two are 1/6,3 places when teaming up at the track since 2014.

She does look a slow plodder but in these conditions that may be enough. She has experience of the track and unlike most in here is proven to handle soft- her placed efforts suggest it isn’t an issue. There really is no excuse today. She ticks enough boxes for me and it will be interesting to see how she goes. She could just be out of form but if she repeats that Donny run she should be in the mix.

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GL with any bets today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 Responses

  1. Two for me tomorrow. Firstly I like the look of Satchville Flyer in the 15:00 at Ffos Llas. Looks to have ideal conditions tomorrow. He is 2/4 on soft ground, 3/4 at Ffos Llas and 1/1 over course and distance. Kieran Shoemark gets on well with the horse and is 2/2 on the flat on him. In general he rides the track extremely well. (4/11, 7p +11 in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years). In general he has a solid record ridden for the trainer (3/13, 6p +16.5 in flat handicaps). Looks like a solid bet. On top of that he is an Elite Squad qualifier which adds to the confidence. Price seems to be going on this one so clearly has been tipped elsewhere.

    I also like the look of Incus in the 20:50 at Nottingham. Ignoring his last run when he was 7lbs out of the handicap and up in class 4, I think he remains bang in form since he was on a hat trick before that. Two starts ago he won over course and distance in a class 5. With David Egan’s 5lbs claim (won on him 3 starts ago) he is actually running off 3lbs lower than that win and is down into a class 6. The trainer has a solid 4/12, 6p +7 in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. (has also won 3 of his last 5 class 6 races at the track) Another that should go well.

    1. Yes your right Nick about Satchville Flyer it has been tipped, by one tipster I’ve been testing over the last 3 months.

      1. Also just seen Gary Priestley tipped it too he’s on a right run this month, think he’s hit 14 winners with about 190+ points for the month.

        1. My word you are right – he is in the middle of one of his infamous purple patches- indeed this may well be the best one of the lot i’m not sure. Just remarkable tipping this month. With any luck he keeps it going for the foreseeable future. GL today. i’m on satchville as an ES qual in members’, albeit my head says one of the young guns will win this but it’s impossible to say he can’t be in the mix and as his price was worth a dart.

          1. been following Gary Priestley’s free tips to small stakes for about 3 months now ,May was good ,June was poor but so far this month it’s been great especially his naps . must admit i don’t back them all but iv’e been lucky only missed one winner (8-1) haven’t kept compete records just do them on my fun bets account but must be about £200 up (which pays for my rubbish selections).

  2. That 3.00 race is a really interesting puzzle to solve for a lowly Class 5 handicap. You could make a case for half the field and still miss the winner.

    The fav is in great form and his yard does really well on their trips across the water.

    Cases already made for Satchville by others, Manners Please was only narrowly beaten LTO off a long break and should come on for the run. Highway One drops in class for her hcp debut and was only beaten by half a length in a Newbury maiden recently that has produced several winners.

    And there’s not much pace in the race as I can see, so Peach Melba might be yet another Johnston/Norton nick it from the front job.

  3. On what looks a quiet day on paper, theres a few poking their heads out today. I think there’s a lot to like about Show Palace 650 Nottingham.

    Something like 5 wins from 6 over 5f on ground with the word soft in it. Jennie Candlish has a lot of good stats about her over sprint distances, won last time etc.

    1. As highlighted by Hugh Taylor on ATR. However ha is on a poor streak at present. Not much of a price.

      I like Skala Regina to go in again, 7.30 Chelmsford. Sir mark may have found a nice mark for an improving horse?

  4. Good luck with Lady Natasha, encouraging as it has been tipped by 2 of the paid tipsters I use very early this morning; at nice odds and one of them ditches it with Incus, was odds to 4th at that time but will have to check non runners..

    1. Cheers Colin, always good to know! Yea there was a 15p r4 on any earlier prices due to a short one coming out. Just the 3 places now I think. In theory, if they repeat/improve on the Donny run, there shouldn’t be much between them and one was nearly twice the price. Maybe she is just out of form and I have made too many excuses but the ‘story’ of recent runs makes sense and given her lightly raced profile, and having hit some of my TTP stats to start with, i was happy to have a dart. GL

    1. mixes, probably more flat but he does well all year- he does like a good low grade handicap hurdle…

      now is not the time to start following though- we’ve had a good chat on twitter this morning- it is his best month ever we think, or on course for. Certainly the best purple patch he can remember in around 30 years of punting and certainly while he has been tweeting tips for last 4/5 years or so.

      Usual SR is 1/15 win, 1/4 place… he is operating at 1/7 win this month… the maths suggests that will correct at some point soon. The dip could be severe. Like a -80, -100 point severe if it comes in one hit, or it may spread out over a few mediocre months. Hopefully he keeps it going for now but if you haven’t been on this month I wouldn’t start diving in now- or if you do be cautious. He may well have a great August, he usually does.

  5. Thanks Josh, something to keep an eye on for now.
    I don’t know how you or anyone else get on with keeping records as in the level of info you want but if anyone’s interested in losing streaks and not too comfortable with Excel maybe I can help.
    If anyone uses a portfolio and records their bets in date order and would like to be able to see what sort of losing streaks each method/system has then I have cobbled something together that may be of use.

    1. Hi Chris, I would be interested. I follow 20 odd tipsters (I do not pay for access to all though). This type of infor is crucial to me as a serious punter. I can share info with you if useful?

    2. Hi Chris I’m currently following 6 racing tipsters & 4 football tipsters all paid tipsters I don’t record results but am looking to do so I would be interested also in your method? Regards Steve.

      1. It’s not a method Steve, it’s a record of losing streaks that are calculated from results recorded on Excel to be used alongside whatever records you have. It shows length of streaks and how often they’ve occurred along with a table of recent results for each method/system, in my case the last 20 bets for each one. I find it useful to detect any possible abnormalities in results helping me to decide if I should stop betting or not on a particular system.

  6. I’m no expert by any means, but it calculates it perfectly. The downside is that it can be very slow at times and a 32bit Excel may have a panic attack, so I would guess 64bit is best, then again I have around 20k of rows.
    The reason I made it was because its easy to calculate loss/win streaks if all you want is streaks for all systems/methods, but if you want to cherry pick different systems/methods from a date sorted table to look at them individually then it gets a bit tricky (for me) and bloats Excel. It can’t be done (apparently) in powerpivot unfortunately so I’m stuck with good old Excel for this. So maybe Josh wouldn’t mind acting as a middle man to exchange whatever contact details your happy with if you’re still interested.

  7. Excellent stuff Chris.

    I know what you are describing as “draw down” there are a few other phrases/names it is know as.

    I allocate a bank of 100 points to each of my paid and free tipsters and plot the variance between the high points (profit) and the low points (when the bank goes under 100 points).

    I take a dividend when I reach a certain level as my “income” and then revert to 100 points. I perceive good Tipsters as those whose drawdown does not drop below 70 points e.g a loss of 30 points from my 100 starting position in a given period.

    There are some tipsters who float along between 120 (20+) and 80 points (20-) and some who fluctuate more (Gary Priestley is a great example, he is truly outstanding when hot but you have to learn when to get off the bus otherwise his lows can be quite deep), a bit like stocks and shares, buying low (subscribing) and selling high (get out when the winners start to dry up).

    I also always ask a prospective paid / subscription Tipster who I may be considering joining; what their “drawdown figures are” – many don’t know what it is, a few don’t reply and the best tend to know and have the answers and explanations.

    Any tool that can do this is a fantastic help to your betting portfolio and potential profit.

    This was actually all explained to me by 3 guys I met who are serious professional punters; they turnover around £1m per annum on 4-5 sports and have a small horse racing portfolio of 4 paid for Tipsters, they aim for a net income of 10% from the £1m turnover (100k) and therefore a return of 10% is the basis on which they quantify good and consistent tipsters for any sport. The biggest variance is horse racing and golf as they are the sports with the biggest potential odds returns and losing runs.

    Bravo Chris!

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