Members Daily Post: 24/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Crikey,more qualifiers than on a lot of Saturdays… (not ‘too many’ strategy quals… well 8 Flat ES…)

 

FLAT 

Ayr

2.30 – Racquet (micro dist) H3 10/3 UP

3.40 – Slemy (micro runs) ES 20/1 UP *

*strange market,I and my pal Ben Aitken (Narrowing The Field) (whose also been keeping an eye on this one) have concluded that he may have an issue that they haven’t got to the bottom of – he travels like a horse with an tonne in hand,and did so again here- tanked through his race. He was last off the bridle but when asked a question there is no response and he goes backwards. It could be he has a niggle that they haven’t found, who knows. His past form/mark/way he travels ensures i’ll be keeping tabs on him… if he ever finishes off a race again the rest are in trouble. 

 

4.10-

Remember Rocky (3yo+) ES H1 4/1 2nd 9/2 

Wolf Heart (3yo+) ES 40/1

4.40-

Royal Regent (3yo+) ES H3 I3 13/2 UP

Maraakib (micro age) ES 16/1

5.10 –

Kashmiri Sunset (4yo+, + micro class) 11/2 WON 11/2>13/2 

Buzz Boy (4yo+) 14,30 7/2 UP

 

Beverley

6.25 – Babylon Lane (2YO) 8/1 UP

6.55 –

Cross Fire (3yo+) 16/1  UP

First Bombardment (micro TJC) ES 9/2  UP 

Agueroo (micro class) 14 I1 14/1 UP 

7.25 – Lopito De Vega (all hncps) 12/1

7.55 – Fayez (micro TJC) ES G3 16/1

8.25 –

Media World (3yo+) 25/1 UP

Pepys (micro age) 6/1 UP

8.55 –

Tin Pan Alley (all hncps) 16/1

Flowers Will Bloom (micro TJC) ES G3 10/1

Bollin Ted (micro runs) H1 6/4 WON 6/4 

 

Windsor

6.45 –

Di Alta (all hncps) H3 I3 G3 3/1 WON 2/1 (r4) 

Marie Joseph (all hncps) H3 I3 5/2

Impressive Day (micro class) I3 20/1

7.15 –

Hernandes (all hncps) 12/1 UP 13/2

Evening Hill (all hncps) H3 I3 9/2 UP

Blaze of Hearts (micro going) I3 22/1 UP

7.45 – The Big Lad (all hncps) 16/1 UP

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Cartmel 

2.45 –

Shantou Tiger (hncp hurdle)  14,30  ES I1  13/2 2nd 9/1 

Mont Choisy (micro age) 14  4/1 3rd 

3.20 –

Tekthelot (all hncps) 5/1

Heaven Scent (hncp hurdle + micro dist) 14,30  ES I3  25/1 UP 

Cougar’s Gold (micro TJC) 9/2 WON 9/2 11/4 

4.25 –

Nicolas Chauvin (hncp chase) H3 I3 7/2 UP

Fantasy King (hncp chase) I3 9/1 UP

Wisty (micro runs) H3 I1 5/2 WON 5/2> 6/4 

4.55 –

Munsaab (hncp chase) H3 9/1 UP

Bon Chic (hncp chase) I3  8/1

5.25 – Rockability Riot (micro runs) 10/3 UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/53,20p, -4.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/114, +21.6)

None..

 

Notes

Cool Run Girl.UP 25/1>10/1… hmmm. Something amiss it seems as never travelled and Norton was looking down for a time before easing off a long way out. Maybe one to leave until showing more now. Her best run has come over 5f on soft at Hamilton. Money came which was interesting but the cliff edges nearer. I could have just got her wrong, she could just be moderate. Well, she is moderate, but you know what I mean. 

the ‘notebook’ horse who will sluice up in a weak handicap one day (the question is whether we will be long over the cliff edge by then!) runs in the 2.30 Ayr- over 6f and dropping back to a C6. This does look a competitive C6 with most of these in some sort of form and two LTO winners who could follow up. Franny Norton has been booked, only his second ride for the yard. Interesting. This will go one of two ways today I suspect. She is 25/1 in places. Jardine is 1/74,7p with flat handicappers 22/1+ SP, albeit the winners was 50s. The theory is they are setting her up to go close/she is unexposed/more to come one day… on that basis you’d expect market support when the time is right. I have had a go, win only, at 25s- maybe she will place but I thought she either wins or is unplaced- placing and getting her noticed doesn’t help if you want to ‘have it off’ NTO. This is her first run in a C6 over 6f so who knows. There is pace to aim at and I thought she travelled well LT) and was never put into the race. The jockey didn’t pick up his stick once. Very odd. Who knows what the instructions to Franny will be. Maybe she will miss the kick today/run into plenty of traffic! 🙂 (unintentionally of course!) I’ll pay a little to find out but it looks competitive, too competitive for a gamble to my eyes. But you can’t second guess 25/1 shots too much.

 

Other Thoughts…

Slemy- I have some interest in the one at a price- I think he is just out of form at the moment and won’t do much but he is 20s and… he drops into a C6 for the first time, gets some pace to aim at and has a long straight to wind up on. He travelled with zest the last day but found nothing when asked. His mark has plummeted. In June last year he was winning a C4 off 78 and today runs in a C6 off 65. When Ruth Carr works her magic, and this one snaps back into life, he will just sluice through a C6 field and have them for breakfast. Something doesn’t look right with him at the moment but the pain of missing him at this price far outweighs loaning a bit back to the bookies, temporarily. One to watch. Maybe he needs to do some more lunging. (One of Carr’s unique methods,albeit I don’t know what that involves!)

Royal Regent – 13/2 was fair enough for me given his consistency. I think he wants it soft to be seen at his best and I suspect the Dods horse will win. But, he has had long enough off and if he fluffs his lines RR is as likely as any in this to pick up the pieces. He wont be far away if recent efforts are a guide. Too consistent for his own good as his mark stays static.

The 6.55 Bev looks interesting… I have backed both in this.. First Bombardment doesn’t like winning too often on turf but he was well drawn and has dropped into a C5 for the first time in a while. He is running well enough and could be in the mix. He is ES and who am I to second guess them too often. I got 5s which was just on my limit in a race like this. I think Aguerooo is over-priced at 14/1 – again he drops in class here and ran well LTO. He will need a lot of luck in running from his draw but he is usually held up. What convinced me was the pace set up- this race is packed full of front runners/pace pushers- on paper at least – including some drawn high who will want to get out and across- I am hoping there is a pace burn up here and the all fall in a heep with one of our two picking up the pieces.

Media World 25s – I have found some loose change to have on this one given the price. Not expectant but he is making handicap debut and the trainer is 0/10,4p with such types in the last two years. There is no distance move which I don’t really like but the last run was after a lengthy absence and may have been needed. Not one to go mad on but you never know. Unexposed. The market will probably guide.

Flowers of Venus – well another ES- unexposed and making handicap debut. O’Meara is 7/35,14p with such types in the last year. 1/9,3p at Beverley last 5 years. Again- my instinct says this one is just not very good at the moment – no distance move and she was going backwards on her last run, rather than going forward and showing signs of life. The only hope is that she just hasn’t been very race fit and the last effort will bring her forward plenty. But an ES, and unexposed, and a decent price- the type where if I over think them i am more likely to miss winners over time.

The final flat horse I will mention is Hernandes– who is interesting and well worth a nibble at 11/1 for me- yes he could just be out of form but I am willing to forgive any horse a poor run at Chester where you are always on the turn. Maybe he didn’t like it. But, based on his run here before that he shouldn’t be this price. He is lightly raced and kept on well that day. 10f back here could do the trick. That race has produced a few winners since and he clearly relished underfoot ease. IF that last run was just a blip he will out-run these odds for me.

Over to Cartmel… hmm well I am not jumping up and down to back anything with much confidence.. Shantou Tiger- well McCain is in cracking form at the moment which could see a few of his run better than they have been- this one at least returned to form the last day, will lead/be in the front two, and from what I can see won’t mind soft. He stays well and I think he will run his race. I had a go at 13/2. Mugger saver on Mount Choisy, hopefully one wins for my bank balance at least, but not too much damage done it not.

Heaven’s Scent – just looks out of form- but McCain’s form and the fact she has gone well on soft, has made me throw change at 25s- maybe I am on too much of a high after the last 3 days or so and my judgement is clouded! She will try and lead, and probably go backwards from 3f out. She doesn’t seem to find much when asked.

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Right, do with those notes as you please. Never be put off a horse based on anything I may or may not say! Those are my subjective views and no better/worse than your own.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

5.55 Bev- Laureate / Nothing Compares

CD Jockeys

6.45 Bev Windsor – Jive Talking (any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

tbc

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Results: Flat Advised Strategies Weekly Update: 17th -23rd

Elite Squad: 

The week: 19 bets / 4 wins / 10 w|p / +15.2

Total: 81 bets / 19 wins / 38 w|p / 23% w sr / 47% w|p sr / +47.2 points (in around 34 days or so)

Strategy #1 (double/treble top rated)

Week: 0/3,op

Total: 37 bets / 11 wins / +12.75

Strategy #2 (top rated+ a top 3 rated)

Week: 24 bets / 5 wins / 11 w|p / +15

Total: 120 bets / 25 wins / 21% w SR / +28 points

**

Thoughts… it has been a decent enough week. The Elite Squad continue to tick along and if you just want one strategy to back systematically that looks like the place to start. The win % and place % is mirroring the historical research/criteria for now. I can’t think they are going to maintain a 58% ROI but you never know. There will be losing runs and we are due a slump and I refuse to believe we have found the elusive magic money tree. The game is never that easy and usually gives you a slap down at some point, usually after a glut of 16/1+ winners! But, clearly I am delighted with how they have performed/started.

I suspect the long term fortunes of 1+2 will be founded on finding those decent priced winners. AlexanderK  20/1, was the first biggie i think for strategy 2 and clearly that has made a big difference to the week and the overall level. But again if those win% can be maintained, with a no odds caps approach, that should progress gently over time.

But, +88 points for the three strategies isn’t too shabby. 🙂

**

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Cool Run girl runs tomorrow ayr 2.30

    warren bottomley 23/07/17 9:34 PM Reply


  • Norton booked for Cool Run. Positive sign?

    dougandnicky 23/07/17 10:21 PM Reply


  • Slemy’s into 10s now Josh….but i’ll be having a small bet on Cosy Club…. i read an article by Matt B…. who wrote a good piece showing blind backing of Irish flat raiders
    paid off long term…. with a good ROI…. only rule….20s or under. I see Keatley has 4/5 raiders so i’ll be watching with interest.

    BOL ……Tony Mc.

    tonymc 24/07/17 12:41 PM Reply


    • yep, we shall see! he was backed the last day before drifting again before the off – of some interest is that usual pilot Jimmy S is not riding today (not sure why, suspended maybe) – and as such maybe of more interest he comes out today- maybe since his last run he has shown more at home and they want to get him out – which handily coincides with the drop in class! 🙂 Anyway, 20s was worth a dabble.
      Some money for Cool Run also- would be nice if one of them could go in.

      Yep i read that post from Matt- too many quals for me personally but certainly great info to have/decent start point maybe.

      GL

      Josh 24/07/17 1:05 PM Reply


  • Cosy Club went in…i had it at 20/1……..I hope someone else read the page.

    tonymc 24/07/17 3:56 PM Reply


    • Well done Tony, i read it, replied, and didn’t back it! Can’t say I looked at him more fool me- albeit his trainer ‘in form’ stats somewhat jumped off the geegeez race card. Super stuff. Bet that had you on the edge of your seat, exciting finish!

      Josh 24/07/17 3:59 PM Reply


      • Sqeaky bum time Josh. lol

        Nice one Darren.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 24/07/17 4:26 PM Reply


  • Great spot Tony!
    Got it at 20s also

    Darren 24/07/17 4:10 PM Reply


  • i’m a week into my free trial and allready apart from the mountain of imformation available. there are some nice little tips posted on these comments which i have been reading religeously. SO HOW DID I MISS COSY CLUB.!!!!!!!!!
    maybe i need to read more carefully next time.
    Well done to all those who didnt miss it and to tonymc for posting it. 🙂

    warren bottomley 24/07/17 4:45 PM Reply


    • To late to post but Ben Aitkens Ayr system just threw up Maulsden May at 16s…I was having my MOT done and noticed it as i waited…so put it on at the local bookies….. happy days.
      I think Josh may have a copy of this as Ben is a racing ‘oppo’

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 24/07/17 4:52 PM Reply


    • Hi Warren, I wouldn’t beat yourself up- I didn’t back him, albeit maybe that isn’t saying much! 🙂
      This will sound like a strange thing to say- but you have to learn to deal with missing the odd winner on here- there is plenty of quality on these pages, esp in the comments both on here and free posts- it’s just one of those things. With any luck you back enough over time to get some enjoyment from the site/the sport.
      And- the way things are going, just backing the flat ES is at least a solid foundation and with any luck will ensure there is always something to cheer every now and then!
      Josh

      Josh 24/07/17 5:35 PM Reply


  • I know I can over think this sometimes but surely if Slemy is going to be winning it wasn’t going to be with Nolan on board and you’d want to wait until Sullivan is back on him. Plus would like to see them try some sort of headgear or something different. Either that or a trainer change to freshen him up. Just don’t think he is showing enough at the moment for a drop in rating/class to make a difference.

    nickmazur 24/07/17 5:16 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick,
      I am convinced of that view now! But at 20s, first run in a c6, was worth a go for me- the jockey- i agree albeit turns out Jimmy S wasnt riding today and I have had my fingers burnt over-thinking jockeys before.
      He is a frustrating beast- he travels so well. He tanked through that race again, as he did LTO. He just doesn’t find when asked- there will be a reason for that. Mentally not wanting to put it in, in which case maybe he does need a change of scenery. Or there is a niggle that no one can get to the bottom of.
      I agree he isn’t showing enough now on the track – it is whether they do anything to him/find a problem etc.
      If he ever opens at 20s+ and is properly backed and sent off much shorter, we may get our answer.
      I’ll end up dead on the rocks no doubt 🙂

      Josh 24/07/17 5:26 PM Reply


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