Free Daily Post: 24/07/17 (complete)

No system bets today.

 

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Time has got the better of me today… Members’ post was busier than anticipated but plenty of interesting horses at a price.

Just some thoughts on the horse below, who caught my eye at Hamilton and I have been tracking since. The market suggests today is not the day, but one to watch… i’m convinced she will bolt up in a C6 one day!

Cool Run Girl..UP 25/1>10/1… hmmm. Something amiss it seems as never travelled and Norton was looking down for a time before easing off a long way out. Maybe one to leave until showing more now. Her best run has come over 5f on soft at Hamilton. Money came which was interesting but the cliff edges nearer. I could have just got her wrong, she could just be moderate. Well, she is moderate, but you know what I mean. 

the ‘notebook’ horse who will sluice up in a weak handicap one day (the question is whether we will be long over the cliff edge by then!) runs in the 2.30 Ayr- over 6f and dropping back to a C6. This does look a competitive C6 with most of these in some sort of form and two LTO winners who could follow up. Franny Norton has been booked, only his second ride for the yard. Interesting. This will go one of two ways today I suspect. She is 25/1 in places. Jardine is 1/74,7p with flat handicappers 22/1+ SP, albeit the winners was 50s. The theory is they are setting her up to go close/she is unexposed/more to come one day… on that basis you’d expect market support when the time is right. I have had a go, win only, at 25s- maybe she will place but I thought she either wins or is unplaced- placing and getting her noticed doesn’t help if you want to ‘have it off’ NTO. This is her first run in a C6 over 6f so who knows. There is pace to aim at and I thought she travelled well LT) and was never put into the race. The jockey didn’t pick up his stick once. Very odd. Who knows what the instructions to Franny will be. Maybe she will miss the kick today/run into plenty of traffic! 🙂 (unintentionally of course!) I’ll pay a little to find out but it looks competitive, too competitive for a gamble to my eyes. But you can’t second guess 25/1 shots too much.

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GL with any bets today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • Your qoute 17/07 ” COOL RUN GIRL 25/1 6f in a C6 could see her romp home for me- i’ll be dusting off that trusty wheelbarrow and shovelling it on 17/07 .Still standing by that?
    2.30 AYR

    mozzer 23/07/17 9:27 PM Reply


    • I stand by everything i ever say Mozzer! On this occasion it’s just about the size of the wheelbarrow- i’m going on the smaller side, children’s toy size 🙂

      In all seriousness I have had a go, on the nose, at 25s,but I haven’t taken out a loan to do so. I do not know what they are playing at, if anything, but she has ability from what I have seen on her last two starts and she will win races. She does get C6 and 6f which to my eyes is what would make the difference- given how she stayed on in the mud at Hamilton after a break, over 5f. The last run was very odd, esp the ride.
      They have pitched her in to a competitive C6 here and if you were lining up a punt you could find much weaker C6 races to my eye- if my theory holds then she will be well backed when they expect a big run- so the market will be interesting. I won’t expect anything if she stays 22/1+, but he has enough winners in 14/-20/1 range.
      Worth a go at those odds. We shall see. With each race the cliff edge looms into view!

      Josh 24/07/17 8:55 AM Reply


      • 20/1 and holding at present.

        3.40 Ayr Slemy, 20/1, worth a few quid.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 24/07/17 9:15 AM Reply


  • 5.35 Ballinrobe
    2 point win Six Silver Lane
    6/4 with bet365

    The only in form horse in the race and a clear third in the ratings
    The top rated New Story hasn’t raced for three years but if he was capable of running near his mark
    of 93 would be a certainty but the horse wouldn’t be in a 6 grand claimer if he could
    The horse will likely be unplaced as could be the case with Possible future
    who is another higher rated horse who had a year off before running a stinker in a hurdle race

    Six Silver lane will run to form and unless the two former useful horses get back near their best
    will win.

    The main danger could be the former winner Indian Tomahawk

    RACE REVIEW
    Yasir ran an honest 3rd but had to much to do from last all the way

    peter walker 24/07/17 8:43 AM Reply


    • Urgh, unlucky Peter, a nose defeat. Those are hard to take. Keep plugging away, it will come right soon enough.

      Josh 24/07/17 6:11 PM Reply


  • 4.55 Cartmel
    14 years – 132 runners.

    Last run not between 2m6f-3m3f: 0/37
    Handicap runs >25: 0/30
    Chase runs not 6-25: 1/41
    Career wins >5: 1/37
    Shorter wins: >5 0/28
    No Handicap chase wins: 1/43

    I think the only one who ticks all the boxes is Camillas Wish (15/2).
    The two at the head of the market, Universal Soldier and Charlie Wingnut, are the two who miss out by just one.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 24/07/17 8:54 AM Reply


    • Spot on Chris……. she won well…. I hope you read the members page for a bit of pay back. Cosy Club at 20s/16s.
      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 24/07/17 5:08 PM Reply


      • I don’t have access to the Members’ page – sounds like you’ve had it right off!

        Chris Baxendale 24/07/17 6:09 PM Reply


        • Sorry Chris, i didn’t know… Yeah two long shots went in. Bugger!

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 24/07/17 8:14 PM Reply


    • Nice winner there Chris. Thank you kindly.

      Allan 24/07/17 5:34 PM Reply


    • Crikey, you’ve done it again! Well done, I doff my cap, well, if I was wearing one.

      Josh 24/07/17 5:40 PM Reply


    • Brilliant Chris. I have learnt so much from your approach and in such a short time that you’ve been posting.
      Eric

      Eric 24/07/17 6:07 PM Reply


      • Hi Eric, yep you and me both- well Chris has looked at a handful of diff angles that I never considered and also is more willing to knock out the 1/ from x runners if the numbers are poor, whereas I try and start with a ‘winning profile’- (every previous winner covered) but his approach is on fire..and a few things for me to consider with my own trends approach.

        There are some videos here, esp the top one, which may help if they are your thing- Chris uses the same piece of kit..

        https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/08/23/horse-race-base-some-over-the-shoulder-videos/

        Josh

        Josh 24/07/17 6:15 PM Reply


        • Many thanks Josh. I have seen it before but it was good to have a refresher on it.

          Eric 24/07/17 8:05 PM Reply


  • COOL RUN GIRL,Franny Norton is an interesting booking never ridden for the stable before. Would hope he put’s in a bit more effort into the ride than the last jockey.

    owen 24/07/17 9:56 AM Reply


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