Free Daily Post: 23/07/17 (complete)

Ah well the stats worked well yesterday, the 11/1 winner from a shortlist of 4. Shame I ignored them but that’s how it goes. I (wrongly as it turned out) had a few niggles about the Nicholl’s horse that I couldn’t quite overcome. I may have over-thought any concerns about the level of his recent small field form given all the other positives he had going for him. Never mind. (stronger language was used at the time!) Shelford ran well but was just a bit too far back. But also that is how he runs and may forever be a frustrating chaser and if playing again you would want a price. I’m sure he will pick up a decent enough chase at some point, he does respond for pressure and may have preferred a stronger pace. Still, it’s of some comfort that the race profiling has been working well the last couple of weeks and at least the pin has landed on one of the winners at good odds. 

 

On we go. The micros today and another guest tip from Speculate 2 Accumulate… (sp2a)

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.40 Strat- Mighty Leader (12/1< guide)

 

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Guest Tip (from sp2a)

Goood Morning

The Advisor – Redcar 3.00 3 Lozah – each way @ 9/1 (generally – all bookies odds to 4th place)

We had a nice winner yesterday with Alcala who was always travelling beautifully and was ridden to perfection; he handled the step up in grade in this better race very well and could be one to follow on better summer ground until the Autumn. The loss of the Trainers Title will have hot Paul Nicholls hard, and it is not hard to believe that he will see some of the better summer jumping races, as a way of getting a head start in this seasons title race.

Jonny Barnes picked up some minor place money, having been advised at double figure odds; for a nice net profit overall.

The action today focuses on Redcar on the Flat and jumping at Stratford and Newton Abbot, both NH Cards have smallish fields that could reduce further as the Going at both is likely to get softer after heavy rain over the past few days. There is racing too at Fairyhouse and Tipperary but with moderate fare, we will focus on  Redcar, we did look at the 5.00 race but have decided on just the one selection today in the 1m 1 f Class 6 race at 3.00, where we think we have found a horse with the potential to improve in a moderate field.

As usual we wont “tip for the sake of it” and with The Advisor in good form we are confident of a nice run.

The logic-:

The Advisor -: I am immediately drawn to the top of the handicap. Green Howard is solid and consistent in this grade for an in form yard and steps n to a 0-60 here. His best form is at 1 mile but he does have a tendency to step up in trip as the season goes on in past years, whether that is a plan, or just hunting a race to win, not sure. He will be sure to be one of the ones in contention as is

THE DUKKERER who would be my second pick in the race, for those that want to go “two handed”. He is down to Class6 runs off a nice mark at optimum trip and looks solid, the main problem being, he tens to find was of not winning, as opposed to winning.

Of the remainder, Graceful Act was a surprise winner last time but upped 6lbs does not look like one to build up a sequence and the likes of Mr Sundowner and Sooqan are on pretty rigid handicap marks that allows them to run well but normally to be looking at place money at best. The one that stands closest inspection though is LOZAH. He was noted running on well here over a mile last time in a slightly better race. Those that beat him and that he beat that day would normally be contesting Class5 races off marks above 60 and at 4 years old, for an in form yard, he would be one of the few that you would think may have some scope to improve. The other advantage I see is a draw in stall 14, as the higher numbers on this track in races round the bend, do seem to have a bit of an advantage and both main rivals are drawn low.

It is very moderate fare but at 9/1 and with all Bookies paying odds to 4th place at the time of writingat 7.15 he looks a solid each way punt and if you want to double up the NB would be The Dukkerer.

Back tomorrow with the usual 3 tip format with 4 meetings and plans at Ayr and Beverley.

Regards

Ian

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Some explanation as to the above and sp2a’s Daily Tips…

The Daily Tips concept is as follows.
We have a stable of 6 daily tipsters , all individually proofed to Racing Index. We look for up to 3 selected races per day and record to a level stake of £10 each way or £20 win as advised to SP.
Results are recorded to SP and we aim on the basis of staking to therefore be punting 180-200 points per month. (£10 fits in nicely as stakes can be reduced up or down to suit each members own betting bank and all members are sent betting bank and staking guide,) We rarely deviate from 1 point each way or 2 point win bets.
The target is to find 3 points per day (£30 to recorded stakes) that would deliver a net profit of 90 net points, a return on investment of 50%.
The beauty of having a stable of 6 tipsters is that we can cover for form blips and also some specialise in different types of race.
Over 6 years on average we have 8 winning months, 2 break even months and 2 losing months and an average overall ROI of between 30-35%. As a most recent example in June we achieved a net profit of £1,100.10 to advised stakes to SP a return on investment of around 46%.
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As I have said I will be sharing some of their Elite Tips and Daily Tips for free a few times per month.
And at some point in the near future there will be a special offer for RTP readers if you wish to give the service a try.
Enjoy your Sunday,
Josh

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

1 Comment

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  • As the person who recommended this service to Josh; just a small addendum – I did (with the tips I pay for) get a quick update to apologise for the obvious mistake “he is of course a she; Lozah is a filly”

    As a regular of the service the other small comment I would make is to have a look when they suggest a “second pick” they are very transparent when tipping two in a race and make it very clear but when there are likely to be non runners, they will cover that off in the same style as today with The Dukkerer. I do myself bear in mind the second rated and have had a lot of success using that as an alternative; or in a small reverse forecast and in my placepots. GL

    Colin Cross 23/07/17 9:37 AM Reply


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