Members Daily Post: 22/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Newbury

1.50 –

Straight Right (3yo+) H1 G3  7/1 UP

Executive Force (micro runs) 14,30I1 14/1 UP 8/1

 

Newamarket (July)

3.15 – Cool Bahamian (3yo+) H3 G3 11/2 

5.00 – Mountain Rescue (all hncps) ES  I1 G3 9/1

 

Ripon

3.30 –

X Rated (3yo+) G3 7/1

Celestation (3yo+, + micro TJC) I3 G1 9/2

4.05 –

Corton Lad (all hncps) I3 20/1

Kensington Star (all hncps) H1 I3 9/2

Jaameh (3yo+) H3 3/1

Sennockian Start (3yo+, + micro TJC) I1 8/1

4.40 –

Dark Profit (all hncps) H3 I1 G1 10/3

Town Charter (3yo+, + micro TJC) 7/1

5.15 – Starplex (all hncps) H3 G3  5/1

 

Lingfield

5.45 – Priors Brook (4yo+) H1 I3 7/2

 

Haydock

5.55-

Ayresome Angel (all hncps) 22/1

Kachess (all hncps + micro TJC) 9/1

Rose Eclair (micro class) I3 G3 7/1

6.30 – La Celebs Ville (all hncps + 4yo+, +micro runs+ TJC)   ES H3 I1 G3  11/2

8.00 – Maltellie (micro TJC) I1 G3 20/1

8.30 –

Conqueress (BONUS) ES  22/1

Mac O’Polo (BONUS) ES  15/2

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Cartmel

5.25 – Midnight Walk (hncp h) 14 ES  5/1

 

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.10 –

Red Tornado (all hncps) 14,30  ES 8/1

Ebony Express (all hncps + micro age) ES 4/1

3.20 –

Shelford (all hncps, + micro runs) 14,30 ES 9/1

Virens Chercher (micro dist) 11/1

3.55 – Whatzdjazz (all hncps + hncp hurdle debut) 14,30   ES  H3 I3 15/8

5.05 – Are They Your Own (hncp chase) H3 I1  6/4

*

 

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/52,20p, -3.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/113, +22.6)

 

1.50 Newbury – Executive Force– 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) * UP 8/1 Hmm, no excuse there- maybe he is just out of sorts..i’ll keep an eye out if running back on soft over further- but don’t think trip has beaten him there. Not good enough today. 

Well I think yesterday’s darts are still running. One fell out the stalls, game over (finished like  a fresh horse) the other ran no sort of race. Whether he hated Pontefract who knows. The only positive was comfortably beating SP, and we all know if we do that consistently over time we should do just fine. In theory 🙂 At least Dalgleish chipped in with a 16/1-22/1 winner for the Elite Squad that you could make some sort of case for. I thought they may try and nick this from the front and when they got the rail i did get excited. A 16/1-20/1 winner on the free post also in the Scottish Stewards cup made it a decent punting Friday. Sadly mired by the death of Stephen Yarborough and thoughts are with his family and friends. These folk risk their lives day in and day out for our enjoyment and we really should be grateful.

Onto today…

Right, my flat tipping will get there. I am ever confident and bullish but the results need to start reflecting that. I am going to rigorously stick to 6/1+ horses that are unexposed and/or doing something different, and any others I that stand out I will mention in the ‘notes’.

Executive Force-

I couldn’t resist 11/1 for the bang in form Haggas yard. The horse is 1/6 in career and 1/4 on turf. It is the ground that interest me really- he won his maiden on soft at the track and ran well in france on GS. His last two runs have been on a road and there is a chance that he has just hated firm going. A chance. Also a chance he is just out of form! But, he also drops down in trip here – so doing two things different from recent runs. That may help, it may not, but again the price allows a punt. The final piece was the trainer/jockey combo- more so to check it was ok – and actually Haggas does well when booking PH. 18/67,32p all turf handicaps last 5 years, and 3/8 at the track. Fine. So, at 11s, I’ll have a go.

I will probably have a saver on the Balding horse- given he is also unexposed, first run for Trainer and making handicap debut. A qual for Strat 2 also, albeit time will tell if they can match the heady heights of the Elite Squad flat quals. I’ll always favour the bigger priced horse if I can make a case.

**

Notes…

Of the rest…

Those that caught my eye the most, at the prices…

Multellie- at 16s I think you can make enough of a case for this one. He could get an easy lead or track one other. And my eyes were drawn to a decent second over CD in a C2 a few runs back. This is no c2 and he drops in class from his last run. I am not convinced he quite stays but anything is possible if you can dictate a slow pace, slow it down, and kick. There was enough there at that price for me.

Mac O’Polo- well he is unexposed, makes handicap debut (TD does well here with those), returns to fast turf, steps up in trip, ES qual, 15/2, bet. yes there may be a better horse in here etc but I can make a case for the horse and this game is hard enough without going through every other horse in a race and tying yourself in knots. That’s isn’t the point of this approach. It’s a race full of could be anything types which is why you want a price. Well, why I like a price anyway.

Over to the jumps…

The Elite Squad have yet to prove themselves in this format but as I have said the logic/criteria are the same and it won’t be long. But, some caution maybe. They haven’t reached the 50 bet mark yet.

Midnight Walk- i have had a go at 5s – she is unexposed enough and McCain is in form. I also think they may try and make all here given the drop down in trip. She didn’t stay the last day. It could be she is tapped for toe but if she can get a lead she will just keep going. Decent chance to my eye.

I have tipped Shelford on the free post/Summer Plate preview- he is well worth a dabble at that price.

 

And that’s it I think. Those look most interesting to my eyes having had a flick through.

As always, do with that, and all the other quals, as you please.

 

**

 

Blessed To Empress... the filly I own a share in.. runs in the 7.15 Lingfield on Sat. Participation will depend on the ground – good to soft is fine but we won’t be running if any softer. This has been the plan for years, the plot of all plots… I jest! 🙂 (it hasn’t, to clarify) She won her maiden for us, 9/1 early prices (super) and has been trained leading the string- she likes to get to the front and dictate. She was then pitched in the deep end at York which was a great day out. Sadly she pulled like a train, possibly didn’t handle the very heavy ground, and just never looked happy surrounded by/behind  horses. (probably reason she pulled,got a bit lit up) On her last start she missed the break a bit, got bumped, and again was a bit keen in behind. The plan was to lead but had to settle behind. The 1-2 in that were useful enough horses I think. We are excited to see how she gets on over 6f in a handicap for the first time. Due to an injury to her usual jockey we have booked young Kieran Shoemark. Clearly it’s a race full of ‘could be anything’ types and a few from big yards. You can only be hopeful in a race like this. We think there is room in her mark but who knows. She likes to lead and is drawn in the right place. On paper there isn’t much pace on paper either, based on previous runs. (i suspect something may change tactics) Hopefully she turns up, bounces out, leads, grabs the rail…and then it will be fingers crossed from there. We don’t really know if she handles cut or indeed what her ideal ground may be. She hated York but that was very heavy. And you never know until you try.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds) 

4.05 Ripon- Jaameh / Sennockian Star

 

CD Jockeys 

6.30 Hayd – La Celebs Ville (any odds, 9/2< best)

8.30 Hayd- Spirit of Belle (any odds)

 

Irish Angles 

4.55 Lim – Just Cause (12/1< best,any odds)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

ELITE SQUAD... just a quick update.. mainly as I think i introduced these a month ago today (still unsure why I didn’t have the idea sooner).  It is looking like the best systematic strategy….

Anyway, for the Flat.. I think they are on 3/14,7p, +12.7 points so far this week. (+16.7 if you got 20s on yesterday’s winner,BFSP 24)

That takes the total, in around 30 days or so… to… 76 bets / 18 wins / 35 wins|places / +45 points (early/bog) (i’ll do some work on BFSP next week). We won’t be making 45 points every month. We might. But I would bite your hand off right now to average half that every 30 days.

They are starting to look rather solid and I am most happy with the place stats I think- as that shows a decent level of consistency. A few of those have gone very very close, photo calls,inc at 7/1 and 22/1. Dark Defender came a decent second at 28s yesterday also. I don’t back EW generally and am not sure what those figures will be but if that win|p % is maintained that could be an option if you prefer that sort of betting. It is a 24% win strike rate or so and if that is the constant, it does still mean mathematically that we WILL hit a losing run of around 24 every now and then, and a few runs in between. Slow and steady.

Right, that’s enough for today…

GL with any bets.

**

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    You need to turn your Ripon page over to the 4.40/5.15 haha,

    Ellison’s runner in the 3.20 – Viens Chercher is micro dist.

    Just waiting to be collected for run to Ponty so if anyone there tonight see’s someone looking like Catweazle in a red shirt and tinted specs and probably a pint of beer in hand say hello.

    cheers
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 21/07/17 5:26 PM Reply


    • Haha- they are all there, on the same sodding page- you can see the moment my attention went somewhere else- I should turn RUK off when I am attempting concentration… I think i’ve covered them all- last race a maiden handicap so doesn’t count.

      I did just miss the Ellison one, cheers.

      GL at Ponty, decent enough looking card.
      Josh

      Josh 21/07/17 5:37 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Off to Haydock tomorrow night for some racing and a bit of Culture Club?!? Would be great if you had any thoughts on the card? Cheers Tim

    Tim Scott 21/07/17 8:21 PM Reply


    • I will have a look if it is on.. I’d have thought they/the police may call meeting off after the death of the stall handler, but if it is on I will have a flick through as another has asked me also – albeit with the usual caveats! can go one of two ways.

      Josh 21/07/17 8:33 PM Reply


  • Cheers Ben. Yes shocking news, thoughts go out to his family, really puts things into perspective and what a dangerous and important job they do…unsung heros of this great sport

    Tim Scott 21/07/17 11:14 PM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    Always look forward to seeing Blessed To Empress run and taken 8/1 with Skybet for a bit of interest 🙂

    Gavin 22/07/17 10:10 AM Reply


    • cheers Gavin, yep looking forward to seeing what she can do. With any luck she breaks well and can get out/grab the rail. i’ve only had an interest bet as a few questions. Albeit plenty of NRs now. Think ground just ok but you never know. She will be up there for a time with any luck. Fingers crossed and main thing is she/jock comes back safe and sound.

      Josh 22/07/17 10:53 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh
    As a newbie just to say what an excellent blog you write!
    Love the logical approach and very interesting to read others’ opinions too
    Cheers
    Doug

    dougandnicky 22/07/17 10:43 AM Reply


    • Morning Doug, thanks for your kind words, always trying (possibly unlike some of the rogues I back! horses that is, not jockeys :))
      Yep a great community here, and the comments add plenty, both on here and the free post. There is always logic and I am glad you enjoy the read. That stays a constant even when deep within the odd losing run.
      GL today, Josh

      Josh 22/07/17 10:55 AM Reply


  • Tim… some Haydock notes.. usual caveats etc- this is a brief look but always logic!…

    5.55 – Teepee Time- EW – mainly as massive speed figure and top rated in 5g sprints do very well as a micro angle (tested on geegeez gold forums,raking in the profits) May be an anomaly but he will be up there for a time. You never know!
    Savannah Beau – also of interest, trainer ‘in form’ as per key above, the only such one in the race. Horse drops in class and has pace to track. 9s seems a big big to my eyes.

    6.30 -Cornborough – trainer in form, very unlucky LTO, got no run for an age. The one niggle is the Firm, an unknown- in truth probably enough to put you off at 11/4 – but as you are track side you do want to back the odd winner- and for me,if handling the ground, he goes very very close. We have La Celebs in this also- his mark and the trip concerned me, in the context of being under 6s/8s, but he may prove me wrong.

    7.00- probably time to head to the bar!! 🙂 Get the pins out- Fav was impressive the last day but could be taken on by the MJ horse up front. Hopefully so, as that may allow … Veejay to sweep on past. Channon again the only trainer ‘in form’ in the race (doesn’t mean the others are out of form of course,but his are going well)

    7.30 – IBN Malik- top speed fig in this, 12 ahead of next best. Jungle Cat is a bit of a monkey. May hack up in small field but short given how he likes placing these days.

    8.00- Multellie EW- the good to firm is a concern- may be he hates it, but not conclusive and decent form on Good. I do think this is fast though- if there is any rain to take sting out that would help. But that 16s I didn’t want to over think it, worth a small dabble for me to find out.

    ON Fire looks solid also and will run his race. A couple of more unexposed ones in here for Hyam and Dunlop but they looked short enough for me. One may relish trip and demolish these though. I’d bank on Dunlops if that is the case, he does like a good stayer.

    8.30 – We have Mac o’Polo- who could be anything, including not very good. Other Dascombe one looks up against it but you never know and may be worth £2 track side change! If you need a winner by this point- well the Varian fav has a massive speed fig compared to these, trainer in form, and gets first time blinkers I think- could just be too good for these, who knows. 15/8 too short for me from my living room, but if you are there and want something to cheer…he could run a big race.

    **
    GL, esp if you go with any of those. DO NOT let any of that put you off from anything you may like- that’s the worst, changing your opinion because of what someone else has said.
    Have fun
    Josh

    Josh 22/07/17 11:47 AM Reply


    • had a £1 ew on teepee time so an extra £32 to play with tomorrow 🙂

      martin whittle 22/07/17 9:27 PM Reply


    • hi josh/tim
      where do you get these speed figures from
      thanks

      rocketman888 22/07/17 10:36 PM Reply


      • They are part of Geegeez gold, they licence Dr Peter May’s speed figures (has his own blog/very clever man)- that is what I use for the ratings pointers G1 G3. And they have been running a system test in the Forum over at Gold for top rated in 5f handicaps. They seem to work wonders!

        Josh 22/07/17 10:51 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh

    Tim Scott 22/07/17 11:58 AM Reply


    • Oh- forgot there is a DT CD jockey angle in the last! Maybe ditch the Varian shorty if you were tempted and having something on him, seems to be fancied well enough! I’ll be watching with interest, and usually when I do this have to spray around a few fun bets to find out.

      Josh 22/07/17 11:59 AM Reply


  • My TD patent at Haydock looked good value but with all the non runner r4’s,might need 2 to record a profit,couldn’t dismiss Conqueress either so had a saver there

    gearoid180468 22/07/17 12:20 PM Reply


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