Friday was a good day on the punting front. Classic Seniority did the business in the Scottish Stewards Cup at 16s/20s and Glenrowan Rose won at 16s (20s-22s available) for my flat Elite Squad, also put up by Nick in the free comments. So, it was good fun on that front. Winners at those prices really do help the bottom line and they are bloody good fun to cheer home.
Sadly though it all paled into insignificance with the sad news from Haydock. Stalls handler Stephen Yarborough lost his life doing a dangerous job for our benefit. It has taken the shine off the weekend’s action and leaves you a bit numb. But with any luck he would want us to remember him by cracking on and enjoying the sport/horses even more. Thoughts with his friends and family.
Flat 2017: 60+ Days (test)
1.50 Newb- Johnny Barnes (both any odds ) 3rd 8/1
7.30 Hayd – Crazy Horse
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.55 MR – Tangolan (12/1< guide)
Days of Heaven – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP
Shelford – 10/1 (bet365/Coral) 9/1 (general) 3rd – thats him, didn’t go as quick as I thought they might,stayed on well enough, winner won fair and square, another for the stats shortlist!
Alcala – hmmm- always annoying when the winner is on the stats shortlist – I think I had better just get used to that feeling! I wondered if this big field and hustle and bustle may find him out – but he hadn’t proved he didn’t like a big field/wouldn’t cope over fences. Young, progressive, that was the only niggle . In hindsight 10s looks decent but I’m saying that after having watched him win, which is always easy. Before the race a tad more challenging. Moving on. At least the stats profiling is working fine.
I’ll keep this brief enough as I have plenty to do. In general this race is packed full of unexposed chasers most of whom are in form/fit. You can make a case on paper for plenty and something is going to step forward again…
Days of Heaven… well he hasn’t done much wrong in his career to date and is seemingly on an upward trajectory. He won well enough the last day, has beat 4 of these before, hasn’t gone up too much, can clearly lug a big weight, and also races on the pace. He should be up there, either leading or tracking anything that goes faster. There is a niggle that he may prefer going LH but it is only a minor concern. He won’t mind what the ground does albeit there is also a stamina unknown so hopefully not too much rain. He just falls down on the class trends – but winners above C2 in career are 0/32,10 places, and i didn’t like much on my stats shortlist so something had to give. Henderson is in cracking form at the moment and had his first placed runner in this last year, from only 5 runners. This G2 hurdle winner just looks progressive over fences and his last run is arguably the best recent chase form on offer. It could be he runs out of gas in the final furlong and what with rail movement this distance is 168 yards further than advertised. That may cost him, but it is an unknown. He may well relish the step up in trip. He is also top rated HRB and is top on a few Inform ratings, which is a confidence booster. His recent form, and against the clock, is the best on show. Sometimes it can be that simple.
Shelford… I can’t work out if he is a tricky bugger or not but he has taken a similar path to last year’s winner. This looks like a plan/plot to my eyes and I have every confidence that team Skelton have aimed him at this for a little while. He returned after 50 odd days LTO and ran a cracker. he may even come on for it. That was a decent race where we had the 12/1 winner who was ultra progressive. He should go on to better things. Along with Days of Heaven these two arguably have the best hurdles form as well, Shelford being a former G3 hurdle winner. Again that is why he doesn’t quite fit my ‘winning profile’ but race stats/trends should only ever be a guide. When he made his chase debut he was OR 147. 5 runs later is he 129, without quite matching those hurdles ratings yet. But on that basis he could be thrown in here. The returning blinkers seemed to do the trick the last day and I have a feeling a strongly run 2m6f chase may be just what he wants. I am not sure he quite stays an extended 3m but think he does stay further than this. It will help as stamina could come to the fore here and they may all collapse in a heap and leave him in front. Again also a slight niggle about going RH but not enough to put me off. Hopefully Harry tracks the pace in mid div rather than out the back. If it all comes together he could bolt up here from this rating/weight. He has enough career wins to suggest he isn’t a dog and I will give him the benefit of the doubt at these odds, and given his connections. They did the big race double last year on this day and they may do so again.
So, those two will do.
In general I don’t think much to plenty in here- plenty of progressive chasers but they have been winning weak as piss C3/4 novice chases, or weak enough handicap chases. No doubt I have read one of them wrong and something will step forward.
I will just mention Poker School as he is a perfect ‘stats fit’ on my profile below. I don’t like his recent form really albeit I think he must go RH. I don’t like the break or the fact you usually need binoculars to see him out the back of the pack. You are always needing luck with hold up chasers, esp in a big field like this. I am not overly convinced as to the level of form and not totally convinced he has anything in hand here either. But he is lightly raced over fences. Oh and I don’t like the fact he is bottom of HRB ratings either. ALL of that is in the context of his price. Were he 12s+, given stats profile, I would probably have a go. At 7s or so I am not jumping up and down to lump on. Maybe saver material as well all know what happens now!
So, that will do for this preview. Hopefully I can build on the last ‘tip’ over fences which won at 12s.
A racing friend from twitter (yet to meet him) has written a preview for this also which you can read HERE>>> if you so wish. We agree on one horse.
Summer Plate Stats/trends (10 years, 10/151,36p)
10/10 16/1 or shorter SP: 0/51,5p bigger
Not GB Bred (0/24,1p)
10/10 ran 16-75 days ago (0/45,5p outside this) (31-45 days: 0/23,2p)
10/10 highest class win either C3 or C2 (Listed+, 0/32,10p..places decent enough… C4… 0/14,2p)
10/10 1-3 runs in last 90 days: (0/38,6p outside this)
10/10 1-3 runs this season (0/47,7p outside this)
10/10 0-1 track wins (0/20,1p 2+)
Taking those 6 stats together leaves:
Idliketheoption / Alcala WON 11/1>9/1 / Poker School / Earthmoves
Running at Market Rasen LTO: 0/27,3p (that ‘does for’ Jojo’s and Bowens)
Alcala ran in the 31-45 day bracket.
Poker School is rock bottom of HRB ratings which never fills me with confidence.
So, a reason to be against everything!
No more content today…
MEMBERS CLUB.. just a quick update on what is looking like the #1 strategy for the Flat stats…
ELITE SQUAD... just a quick update.. mainly as I think i introduced these a month ago today (still unsure why I didn’t have the idea sooner). It is looking like the best systematic strategy….
Anyway, for the Flat.. I think they are on 3/14,7p, +12.7 points so far this week. (+16.7 if you got 20s on yesterday’s winner,BFSP 24)
That takes the total, in around 30 days or so… to… 76 bets / 18 wins / 35 wins|places / +45 points (early/bog) (i’ll do some work on BFSP next week). We won’t be making +45 points every month. We might. But I would bite your hand off right now to average half that every 30 days.
+£225 to £5 bets. Super. Or +£450 to £10 bets. May well be due a few losers now though, you have been warned 🙂
They are starting to look rather solid and I am most happy with the place stats- as that shows a decent level of consistency. A few of those have gone very very close, photo calls,inc at 7/1 and 22/1. Dark Defender came a decent second at 28s yesterday also. I don’t back EW generally and am not sure what those figures will be but if that win|p % is maintained that could be an option if you prefer that sort of betting. It is a 24% win strike rate or so and if that is the constant, it does still mean mathematically that we WILL hit a losing run of around 24 every now and then, and a few runs in between. Slow and steady.
Anyway, there is now also a ClickBank payment option, 21 day Free Trial and also their 60 Day Money Back Guarantee. What’s not to like?!
Or jumps straight to the free trial sign up page HERE>>>
Come and say hello, we are a friendly bunch 🙂
GL today. Josh