Free Daily Post: 22/07/17 (complete)

Friday was a good day on the punting front. Classic Seniority did the business in the Scottish Stewards Cup at 16s/20s and Glenrowan Rose won at 16s (20s-22s available) for my flat Elite Squad, also put up by Nick in the free comments. So, it was good fun on that front. Winners at those prices really do help the bottom line and they are bloody good fun to cheer home.

Sadly though it all paled into insignificance with the sad news from Haydock. Stalls handler Stephen Yarborough lost his life doing a dangerous job for our benefit. It has taken the shine off the weekend’s action and leaves you a bit numb. But with any luck he would want us to remember him by cracking on and enjoying the sport/horses even more. Thoughts with his friends and family.

 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days (test)

1.50 Newb- Johnny Barnes (both any odds ) 3rd 8/1

7.30 Hayd – Crazy Horse

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.55 MR – Tangolan (12/1< guide)

 

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TIPS

Days of Heaven – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP

Shelford – 10/1 (bet365/Coral) 9/1 (general) 3rd  – thats him, didn’t go as quick as I thought they might,stayed on well enough, winner won fair and square, another for the stats shortlist! 

Alcala – hmmm- always annoying when the winner is on the stats shortlist – I think I had better just get used to that feeling! I wondered if this big field and hustle and bustle may find him out – but he hadn’t proved he didn’t like a big field/wouldn’t cope over fences. Young, progressive, that was the only niggle . In hindsight 10s looks decent but I’m saying that after having watched him win, which is always easy. Before the race a tad more challenging. Moving on. At  least the stats profiling is working fine. 

 

I’ll keep this brief enough as I have plenty to do. In general this race is packed full of unexposed chasers most of whom are in form/fit. You can make a case on paper for plenty and something is going to step forward again…

Days of Heaven… well he hasn’t done much wrong in his career to date and is seemingly on an upward trajectory. He won well enough the last day, has beat 4 of these before, hasn’t gone up too much, can clearly lug a big weight, and also races on the pace. He should be up there, either leading or tracking anything that goes faster. There is a niggle that he may prefer going LH but it is only a minor concern. He won’t mind what the ground does albeit there is also a stamina unknown so hopefully not too much rain. He just falls down on the class trends – but winners above C2 in career are 0/32,10 places, and i didn’t like much on my stats shortlist so something had to give. Henderson is in cracking form at the moment and had his first placed runner in this last year, from only 5 runners. This G2 hurdle winner just looks progressive over fences and his last run is arguably the best recent chase form on offer. It could be he runs out of gas in the final furlong and what with rail movement this distance is 168 yards further than advertised. That may cost him, but it is an unknown. He may well relish the step up in trip. He is also top rated HRB and is top on a few Inform ratings, which is a confidence booster. His recent form, and against the clock, is the best on show. Sometimes it can be that simple.

Shelford… I can’t work out if he is a tricky bugger or not but he has taken a similar path to last year’s winner. This looks like a plan/plot to my eyes and I have every confidence that team Skelton have aimed him at this for a little while. He returned after 50 odd days LTO and ran a cracker. he may even come on for it. That was a decent race where we had the 12/1 winner who was ultra progressive. He should go on to better things. Along with Days of Heaven these two arguably have the best hurdles form as well, Shelford being a former G3 hurdle winner. Again that is why he doesn’t quite fit my ‘winning profile’ but race stats/trends should only ever be a guide. When he made his chase debut he was OR 147. 5 runs later is he 129, without quite matching those hurdles ratings yet. But on that basis he could be thrown in here. The returning blinkers seemed to do the trick the last day and I have a feeling a strongly run 2m6f chase may be just what he wants. I am not sure he quite stays an extended 3m but think he does stay further than this. It will help as stamina could come to the fore here and they may all collapse in a heap and leave him in front. Again also a slight niggle about going RH but not enough to put me off. Hopefully Harry tracks the pace in mid div rather than out the back. If it all comes together he could bolt up here from this rating/weight. He has enough career wins to suggest he isn’t a dog and I will give him the benefit of the doubt at these odds, and given his connections. They did the big race double last year on this day and they may do so again.

So, those two will do.

In general I don’t think much to plenty in here- plenty of progressive chasers but they have been winning weak as piss C3/4 novice chases, or weak enough handicap chases. No doubt I have read one of them wrong and something will step forward.

I will just mention Poker School as he is a perfect ‘stats fit’ on my profile below. I don’t like his recent form really albeit I think he must go RH. I don’t like the break or the fact you usually need binoculars to see him out the back of the pack. You are always needing luck with hold up chasers, esp in a big field like this. I am not overly convinced as to the level of form and not totally convinced he has anything in hand here either. But he is lightly raced over fences. Oh and I don’t like the fact he is bottom of HRB ratings either. ALL of that is in the context of his price. Were he 12s+, given stats profile, I would probably have a go. At 7s or so I am not jumping up and down to lump on. Maybe saver material as well all know what happens now!

So, that will do for this preview. Hopefully I can build on the last ‘tip’ over fences which won at 12s.

 

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A racing friend from twitter (yet to meet him) has written a preview for this also which you can read HERE>>>  if you so wish. We agree on one horse. 

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Summer Plate Stats/trends (10 years, 10/151,36p)

10/10 16/1 or shorter SP: 0/51,5p bigger

Not GB Bred (0/24,1p)

10/10 ran 16-75 days ago (0/45,5p outside this) (31-45 days: 0/23,2p)

10/10 highest class win either C3 or C2 (Listed+, 0/32,10p..places decent enough… C4… 0/14,2p)

10/10 1-3 runs in last 90 days: (0/38,6p outside this)

10/10 1-3 runs this season (0/47,7p outside this)

10/10 0-1 track wins (0/20,1p  2+)

Taking those 6 stats together leaves:

Idliketheoption / Alcala WON 11/1>9/1 / Poker School / Earthmoves

Running at Market Rasen LTO: 0/27,3p (that ‘does for’ Jojo’s and Bowens)

Alcala ran in the 31-45 day bracket.

Poker School is rock bottom of HRB ratings which never fills me with confidence.

So, a reason to be against everything!

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No more content today…

MEMBERS CLUB.. just a quick update on what is looking like the #1 strategy for the Flat stats…

ELITE SQUAD... just a quick update.. mainly as I think i introduced these a month ago today (still unsure why I didn’t have the idea sooner).  It is looking like the best systematic strategy….

Anyway, for the Flat.. I think they are on 3/14,7p, +12.7 points so far this week. (+16.7 if you got 20s on yesterday’s winner,BFSP 24)

That takes the total, in around 30 days or so… to… 76 bets / 18 wins / 35 wins|places / +45 points (early/bog) (i’ll do some work on BFSP next week). We won’t be making +45 points every month. We might. But I would bite your hand off right now to average half that every 30 days.

+£225 to £5 bets. Super. Or +£450 to £10 bets. May well be due a few losers now though, you have been warned 🙂

They are starting to look rather solid and I am most happy with the place stats- as that shows a decent level of consistency. A few of those have gone very very close, photo calls,inc at 7/1 and 22/1. Dark Defender came a decent second at 28s yesterday also. I don’t back EW generally and am not sure what those figures will be but if that win|p % is maintained that could be an option if you prefer that sort of betting. It is a 24% win strike rate or so and if that is the constant, it does still mean mathematically that we WILL hit a losing run of around 24 every now and then, and a few runs in between. Slow and steady.

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Anyway, there is now also a ClickBank payment option, 21 day Free Trial and also their 60 Day Money Back Guarantee. What’s not to like?!

You can find out more HERE>>>

Or jumps straight to the free trial sign up page HERE>>>

Come and say hello, we are a friendly bunch 🙂

**

GL today. Josh

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • I really like Poker School in general and he is very well treated (I was absolutely gutted he didnt win at Sandown when I really fancied him) however with that in mind at the price I am worried his hold up racing style won’t suit tomorrow so not sure he is the one for me tomorrow although I have yet to begin looking at the race in earnest.

    nickmazur 21/07/17 6:45 PM Reply


    • Glenrowan!!!! Get in!! Wallop. Lovely stuff. One for you/ES, all of us hopefully.

      Poker School..yep yet to dive in but he must go RH and the days rest suggest this has been a plan. Agree about run style which in context of 7s in a concern – were he 10s/12s+ you would just take risk maybe. Some pondering. Yet to dive in.

      Josh 21/07/17 6:54 PM Reply


      • Lovely to watch that. Needed it after a week of 2nd and 3rds (and those were the good ones). The other conditions are spot on for Poker just a case of whether the run style suits.

        nickmazur 21/07/17 7:01 PM Reply


        • Sorry.. i missed that Nick…well done mate.

          tonymc 21/07/17 9:24 PM Reply


    • I’ve discounted Poker School as those with their last win >150 days ago are 1/59 from 151 runners over 10 years.
      Need to double check and finish off later on.

      Chris Baxendale 21/07/17 7:52 PM Reply


    • I had a big word for Poker School earlier this week, got on at 10/1, but was asked to keep quiet about it until this evening. I understand that it has been laid out for this race. That does not mean it is a cert though just prepared for the race.

      martin colwell 21/07/17 8:44 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh…well apart from wishing you and Chris a really well done, as you say…it wasn’t just the rain put a damper on the day….I was at Haydock and although i didn’t actually see the incident it truly was a shocker…the med evac was there prompt…but sadly couldn’t do much really….What truly saddened and annoyed me was the carping from some racegoers because the meeting was abandoned [rightly so]. They really got short shrift from the vast majority. Once again my heart goes out to his family.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 21/07/17 9:09 PM Reply


    • yes just devastating news- and horrid circumstances. Numbed the evening. And an avoidable accident by sounds of it, getting run over/crushed buy the stalls, no horses involved. I assumed it was bad when police were there/meeting abandoned. Just awful. Puts everything into perspective. He may have been a jolly fellow mind who would want us all to remember him by enjoying the sport we love/the horses and getting stuck in. About time there was a stalls handler appreciation day or something I think. Dangerous job for our enjoyment.

      Josh 21/07/17 9:17 PM Reply


    • Terrible news, praying for patience for his family/friends.
      Just come across this page : https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/andrew-smith-553?utm_id=60&utm_term=5Pz5GZdZB

      Chris Baxendale 21/07/17 9:47 PM Reply


  • 2.10 Market Rasen

    10 years – 143 runners.

    Aged 7 or older: 1/57
    Last three runs, NO top 2 :0/36
    Handicap wins, >3: 0/43
    Distance places, >1: 1/40

    I think there are two who tick all the boxes: John Constable (6/1) and Mystic Sky (12/1).
    Another two miss out by one: Curious Carlos looks short enough as well as old enough at 7/1 but Star Foot also looks worth siding with at 10/1.

    Chris Baxendale 21/07/17 10:12 PM Reply


    • Although John Constable sluiced up in a better race in this he is now up to 150 I think and so has a considerable weigh to carry. Maybe not value at current price?

      martin colwell 21/07/17 10:27 PM Reply


      • Half the field are within 2 points or so of each other in the market so as it passes all the trends it’s hard to ignore him. But i see your point – it will take some effort off top-weight. Top weights haven’t fared well at all but not significant enough for me to factor it in on this occasion.

        Chris Baxendale 22/07/17 12:05 AM Reply


        • There was a mention as to why Poker School had been off for a while. I was told that they were laying the horse out for this race. It came from a solid source. We shall see. I am on each way at 10/1.

          martin colwell 22/07/17 10:46 AM Reply


        • I did back John Constable despite what I said about the weight. At 6/1 you had to back it each way as I could not see it being out the first three. Just had What About Carlo go in on the sift ground – #easy game.

          martin colwell 22/07/17 2:30 PM Reply


    • Good start! That went well. Easy game haha. Well done.

      Josh 22/07/17 2:15 PM Reply


  • 3.20 Market Rasen

    18 years – 272 runners.

    LR prizemoney >21K: 1/41
    LR to 2nd LR , >60 days: 0/43
    Last win prizemoney, >13K: 0/38
    Won Class 1 before: 0/48
    Distance places, >1: 1/58

    10 years – 151 runners.

    Runs since win, >5: 0/31
    LR prizemoney >17K: 1/33
    Last win, 2m6f or higher: 1/49
    Last win , >150 days ago: 1/59
    LR , NOT 16-75 days ago: 0/45
    90 days runs, NOT 1-3: 0/38

    Applying all the above leaves, I think, Earthmoves (14/1), Cup Final(14/1) and Newton Geronimo (33/1).

    Honourable mention to Alcala who only misses out having last won a 14K race rather than 13K or less.

    Chris Baxendale 22/07/17 12:28 AM Reply


  • 4.05 Ripon
    12 years – 92 runners

    Distance runs, >3: 0/24
    Career win, >3: 0/24
    Last win , non-handicap: 1/26

    Left with two near the head of the market in Jaameh (3/1) and Kensington Star (9/2).

    Chris Baxendale 22/07/17 12:36 AM Reply


  • ALL Gosden runners in July/Aug/Sept having had their last run more than 45 days ago.
    2014: 36% strike rate / +45 points BFSP
    2015: 35% / +69
    2016: 31% / +33
    2017: 30% / -2. (3 from 10 so far this year)

    1.50 Newbury,Johnny Barnes, 9/1.
    7.30 Haydock, Crazy Horse, 10/3.

    Hannon stat has some today too…First time cheekpieces/blinkers since 2014 he has a 20% strike rate, +74 BFSP. This year it is 25% strike rate, +18 BFSP.
    Two today:
    3.15 Newmarket,Ventura Blues, 10/1.
    3.35 Newbury, Lexington Grace, 80/1.

    I’ll shut up now.

    Chris Baxendale 22/07/17 12:50 AM Reply


    • Carry on Chris…… Love reading your snippets.

      jarrodholmes68 22/07/17 1:32 AM Reply


  • great stuff chris keep em rolling the winning is in the detail

    brian morris 22/07/17 6:42 AM Reply


  • Keep em coming Chris, anything else for tonight’s Haydock meeting? I’m going with a couple of pals

    lightowlers 22/07/17 8:14 AM Reply


    • I see that Stamford Raffles is up in trip which must suit, 8.00 HP. Looks hard today so no other hefty bets, keep it low level and enjoy the evening.

      A couple more each way stabs today, Tupi, 3.00Nb; Debutantes Ball; 3.35 Nb.

      martin colwell 22/07/17 11:00 AM Reply


    • Nothing standing out for me there. Have fun!

      Chris Baxendale 22/07/17 3:48 PM Reply


  • I think you’re pretty much spot on with the write up on Shelford Josh and that’s where my pin has fallen. It certainly seems like the plan and in theory he should be better back over this sort of trip given he never won over hurdles over longer than 2m4f. Plus Skelton is so incredibly hot at the moment (6/16, 11p in the past 2 weeks).

    nickmazur 22/07/17 9:58 AM Reply


    • Yep, there are quite a few positives and agree about the trip- they wont hang around here and it should be perfect I think. Just needs to jump well going RH/get into rhythm. If he does I struggle to see how he wont be thereabouts at the end. Maybe a 1-2 as he collars the Hendo horse jumping the last! We can but dream. GL

      Josh 22/07/17 12:02 PM Reply


  • Have had a look at the Supersprint both from an algo score and my ratings for all those seen. Amongst those not seen is the favourite Maggie’s Angel and it is plain from her form that she deserves her place at the head of the market.

    Dividing the rest into colts and fillies of the colts only two look competitive. Connery (74) and Corinthia Knight (73). Of these two I think Connery has more scope.

    Of the fillies the best on my ratings are Pursuing The Dream (78), Lady Anjorica (75) and Mother Of Dragons (72)

    I am always ready to avoid Paul Hanagan (Maggie’s Dream) on 2yos on the southern courses but in this case his stats at Newbury are good. Probably because they are all run on the straight course.

    Patrick Mathers (Pursuing The Dream)has only ridden at Newbury on 2yos 3 times in the last 5 years and is 0/3.

    Jimmy Quinn (Mother Of Dragons) is 0/10 but this is probably due to his ultra light weight more than anything else. Capable enough on a decent one.

    Lady Anjorica has Sylvestre up, trained by a maestro and on my ratings only 2lbs worse off than Pursuing The Dream.

    So the shortlist in order of preference to take on Maggie’s Dream or put in a combo bet with her is
    Lady Anjorica
    Mother Of Dragons
    Pursuing The Dream
    Connery

    Wild card Glaceon with Sean Levey up, apprears to be regressing from a good debut but these types of Hannons often bounce back.
    Hugh

    Hugh

    alpha2 22/07/17 12:27 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Hugh – i hadn’t intended to have a play in this race but will have to have some interest darts at those. GL

      Josh 22/07/17 12:39 PM Reply


  • DELIGHTED TO HAVE AS USUAL RECEIVED YOUR EMAIL TODAY,

    I AM DEEPLY SORRY TO HEAR OF STEPHEN YARBOROUGH ACCIDENT MAY HE REST IN PEACE.
    WHAT AGE WAS HE, DID HE HAVEA FAMILY TOO, SO SAD FOR THEM AND ALL THAT NEW HIM.

    IF WE ARE IN THE WRONG PLACE AT THE WRONG WE DONT HAVE A CHANCE? THANKS MARIA
    22/7/17

    MARIA DOYLE 22/07/17 1:13 PM Reply


    • yep very sad, seems like a freak accident, no horses involved. He was 60 i believe and a team leader for RaceTech, with a family. Thankfully these things are rare but never pleasant.
      Josh

      Josh 22/07/17 1:36 PM Reply


  • Don’t chastise yourself too much Josh.

    I cannot work out Shelford’s run. I thought he was going to get pulled up turning in. Might be another which needs to saved for a track which favours hold up runners (like Poker School). Either today wasn’t the day. I guess getting 12s on a 5/1 shot was the only saving grace although I was e/w.

    nickmazur 22/07/17 3:35 PM Reply


    • Yep one of those – happy with Shelford punt no problem. They didn’t go as quick as I expected- Nico slowed that right down once he got to the front – needs a bit of a collapse. He jumped well enough but just couldn’t pick up. To an extent that is just him, which is why you want a price.
      Clearly annoyed that the winner was on the stats shortlist of 4 – crossed off as dismissed his small field form and concerned about his lack of big field experience/surrounded by horses, and having raced at Newton A which is easy enough a jumping test. On the flip side you say… he’s on a shortlist of 4, double figure price, he’s young, unexposed,in form, the connections = bet. Given it wasn’t a 3m+ chase I maybe should have just trusted the shortlist but easy to say when they have won. Moving on. Next time.

      Josh 22/07/17 3:53 PM Reply


      • Yeah I first remember the winner from the Fixed Brush hurdle a couple of years ago where he finished 4th (only the ill fated Baradari and Definitely Red were much in front of him and the like of Tea for Two was behind) when Nicholls said before the race he might not quite be experienced enough for that sort of race. Since than barring a 3rd in the novice race on Imperial Cup day he has been disappointing but it may have taken him 2 and a half years but he has clearly finally grown up. I doubt they will put him up much for this beyond the minimum so might have some mileage in his rating yet. Obviously hindsight is a wonderful thing.

        nickmazur 22/07/17 4:49 PM Reply


        • Indeed, just about weighing up the pros and cons and I did not get my head into the place where it went ‘well he hasn’t proved he wont handle it and there is a chance this type of race could be the making of him, there are enough positives to have a dart at a double fig price’ – but I didn’t do that. Always learning. But then having looked back through recent races I know why I was put off- one of those. He has clearly learnt plenty on recent runs and looks a fine big horse. Close more positives there than negatives.

          Josh 22/07/17 4:55 PM Reply


  • Had a good win with Alacala….but other bets losing or placed pulled me back. Flip!

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 22/07/17 4:53 PM Reply


    • You use the stats shortlist to help you on your way? Will bring cheers if you did haha, as at least someone will have! But good picking nonetheless! Well done. Did it well enough. Good race.

      Josh 22/07/17 4:56 PM Reply


  • Josh,
    What are your Elite Squad qualifiers?

    Do you monitor your ‘made the trends shortlist but unbacked winners’? I know it’s been mentioned before but would it have been profitable to do that rather than being subjectively selective? I see it meant you missed a few losers yesterday but the opposite today and last Saturday I think. I totally understand bringing in your own thoughts and opinions is a different form of enjoyment altogether.

    Chris Baxendale 22/07/17 9:51 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris, Elite Squad quals are from the Members Club stats. A select group from the main trainer stats pack that have the best win %,etc. They’ve had a decent start since I had the idea.

      Nope I don’t have any records of shortlists etc and just backing them all. It will always be an issue,but more asking the right questions with a shortlist… always things to work on. I should just accept that may always be the case and hope some readers use them better than I do!

      But in should probably keep note of such things!

      Josh 22/07/17 10:13 PM Reply


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