Members Daily Post: 20/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Addition to the 3.05 Ham, as of 07.25, is an ES qual also

 

FLAT

Chepstow

2.55 – Carcharias (all hncps) H3 G3 4/1 UP

 

Hamilton

3.05 –

Quiet Warrior (all hncps) I3 6/1 UP

Yes You (micro class) G3 9/2 WON 9/2>3/1

Top Of The Bank (3yo+) ES I3  7/1 UP 10/1

3.35 –

Warp Factor (3yo+) 30H3 I3 G1 13/2 UP

Hochfeld (micro class) H1 8/11 UP

4.10 –

Fivehundredmiles (3yo+, + micro runs) 30 H1 I1 G3 2/1 UP

X Rated (micro class) 5/2 UP

5.15 –

Leven (3yo+, + micro runs) 30 20/1 UP

New Abbey Angel (micro runs) ES 14/1

Leicester

3.15 – Character Onsie (all hncps + micro class) H1 I1 G1 9/4 UP 7/2

3.50 – Bahamian Bird (all hncp+ micro class) I3 10/1 2nd 

 

Doncaster

5.40 – Bond Bombshell (micro class) I3 10/1 UP

6.10 – Laurens (2YO) 11/1 WON 11/1>9/2 

7.15 – Beatbox Rhythm (2YO) 7/2 3rd 

8.20 – First Voyage (all hncps) 14,30 I3  9/4 UP

 

Epsom

6.00- Edes The Mover (micro runs) 25/1 UP

7.35 –

Ya Jammeel (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 9/2 WON 4/1 (10pR4)>11/4 

Really Super (all hncps) H3 7/2 2nd 

Avantgardist (3yo+) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/50,20p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/1111, +24.6)

None. And nothing else to add for today’s runners.

 

Note: Cool Run Girl turns up in the 2.30 Hamilton (now a NR) and I have had a go at 8s/9s. I would like to see market support. She drops to C6, but back over 5f. I don’t know if that will suit but I can’t say it won’t at this stage. The ground is currently good to firm which may spark even more improvement. The run two starts ago showed promise, and LTO just looked interesting. I still don’t know what to make of it but she was never really asked a question and coasted home in her own time,on the back of a big drift in the market, having at one stage threatening to get involved. At some point she will show herself to be well handicapped. Either that or I will end up impaled on the rocks at the foot of yet another cliff! The market will guide I think.

A few strategy quals above tomorrow. The decent odds ones have been banging on the door the last couple of days, a nose at Beverley from being +6.5 for the day for ES Instead they were -0.5, such are the fine margins sometimes. The Vaughan horse today (Zorba The Greek) was worth a go at bigger prices for me but has bumped into one and couldn’t give her 9lbs, but ran well.  The Haggas horse relished the trip. A repeat of that performance should see him going close but maybe not in a 3yo+ handicap. If he is going to be held up still he will need a stronger pace as well. She was stuck wide here also which didn’t help and could have been ridden better. But on the flip side to that if Bentley bustles her out and races prominent it may have lit her up and she’d have pulled away her chance. I dare say she is ridden that way for a reason but will need a bit of luck. She beat the rest well enough.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jockey CD

3.50 Leic – Bahamian Bird

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Flat Results 2017:  Spreadsheet HERE>>> 

  • Details all qualifiers, to morning price (as found next to horse) ISP + BFSP.
  • I have put ES qualifiers in Italics 
  • The overall p/l figs don’t look great but there is a reason why they are viewed as starting points and the advice isn’t to back them all. Unlike the jumps stats they don’t appear to be finding many biggies,25/1+, which is what affects the bottom line for all qualifiers.
  • But, for me the core numbers are fine for a no odds cap approach. 820 selections/ 110 wins / 266 wins|place / 13% win SR / 32% win|place.
  • It’s also a positive of sorts that Early/BOG and BFSP beat ISP substantially.
  • I need to update all the Ratings Pointers spreadsheets also, esp for Jumps to see if anything developing esp with the Inform Speed ratings.
  • Do as you please with all that, as always and questions etc are welcome.

**

 

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,

    You’ve overlooked one at Ham

    3.05 – Top of the Bank (3yo+) ES

    cheers

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 19/07/17 5:57 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mike,that is annoying,no idea how i’ve missed that one.

      Josh 20/07/17 7:23 AM Reply


  • Might be a day to leave alone and wait for Tom Dascombes assault on Haydock over the next few days

    gearoid180468 20/07/17 8:57 AM Reply


  • Hello Josh
    I’ve been browsing through the Course & Distance: Jockeys from your micro Test Zone.
    Correct me, but if the results posted are as I think they are from my reading of your figures, you are looking at 42 bets to date in 2017 returning 120 points at BSP.
    Discounting Jamie Spencer’s exceptional near 72 points for five rides, it would appear that the remaining 37 rides from the other 16 micros are showing a return of over 48 points to BFSP.
    If these figures are anywhere near the mark, then this is a phenomenal return. I’m probably way wide of the mark in my reading…..but fingers crossed!!
    Patrick

    Patrick 20/07/17 10:14 AM Reply


    • Hi Patrick… well yes they look good on paper!! As always proof will be in the real world testing and such results are never replicated for one reason or another- but if it is a fraction of that they would be doing well. The logic is sound enough. The A team stats are healthy sample sizes given the approach,and I should prob split the A/B team when highlighting quals to see how they compare etc. Only one way to find out as they say.

      Josh 20/07/17 10:45 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. Much appreciated.
        Patrick

        Patrick 20/07/17 10:55 AM Reply


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