Members Daily Post: 19/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Catterick

3.15 – Three Dutchesses (all hncps) H1 I3 G3 5/4 WON Evens 

 

Lingfield

3.25 – Zorba The Greek (3yo+, + micro TJC) 14,30  H3 G1 5/1 2nd 7/2 * (hmm. held up of steady pace,always fear,ran wide whole way,used plenty to get close-albeit in the end maybe just bumped into one there,winner did it well. Kind of horse you could follow over a cliff no doubt! Back to straight track/loads of pace to aim at maybe. Or just handicapped up to best. Although the winner was in receipt of 9lb with allowances,when OR 2lb superior,app the step up in trip) 

 

Yarmouth

5.45 – Plucky Dip (all hncps + micro class) I1 14/1 UP

6.45 –

Good Omen (all hncps+ 3yo+,+ micro runs) ES H1 4/1 WON 3.2/1 > 15/8 (20p R4) 

Another Eclipse (all hncps + 3yo+) ES 9/2

 

Sandown

None.

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

5.15 – Kebir De Las Vis (NHF) 3/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/50,20p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/1111, +24.6)

No tips today, nothing fitting my tipping criteria which I am going to attempt to stick to,esp price.

A quick word on Zorba The Greek – I have backed him as he was available at 8s/15/2/13/2/6/1 generally last night albeit I have no idea for how long for. Money seemed to come. I declare on a generally available morning price that I deem the majority more likely to get/to ensure consistency but clearly if you can get a bigger price the evening before that is always a positive.  I did just watch his last race, where we had the winner, and he raced wide/up the middle of the track for most of the race and got buffeted around when trying to make a move. This is only his 5th start for the yard and I have noted that he returns within 20 days here- LTO was after 80 days and the time before 60 days. It would suggest there has been the odd problem but it isn’t impossible he comes on from that last run/they may have sorted him out. He isn’t exactly unexposed albeit only 1/9 on turf, and there are questions about this mark. But the yard is in flying form and he is a strat qual which at those prices was good enough for me. There is a distinct lack of pace in the race which is a concern/opportunity – holding him up here could be dangerous and it may be there for a switched on jockey to win from the front. Hopefully Bentley won’t have him too far back and there may not be much between him and the Bell horse again. 4/1, 7/2 may be starting to look skinny but hopefully he makes that look a decent price also.

As always, GL with anything you back.

Do note the weather- a bit up in the air in some places/possibility of heavy showers/changing ground. Something to keep an eye on. The Racing Post isn’t good for much these days (for me anyway,albeit I have never really used it for ‘form’ study etc) but they have teamed up with the Met Office and deliver a video weather update each day for all the tracks. Worth following on social media just for those as they are very useful. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From yesterday in case you missed it…

RESULTS: 

-I have updated the Flat advised strategies link above, correct as of close of play Sunday 16th July. This will be updated weekly but of course you’re free to keep tabs on what you back etc.

-Jumps + Summer Jumps…

SPREADSHEETS

-‘Winter’ Jumps 2017-16th July: Link HERE>>>

-Summer Jumps 2017-16th July: Link HERE>>>

  • As discussed yesterday the #1 strategy revolved around the Geegeez Speed ratings which return later in the year. The other strategy was just based on the odds of runners as noted by me next to the horse on the morning of racing. I usually look around 8am or so and note the price generally available with at least 2 major bookies. This strategy simply looked at backing every horses that was in the 10/1 -25/1 price range as noted next to the horse. The SP is irrelevant. It became apparent as the season progressed that the jumps stats find many decent priced winners and the profit fell in this band. The results…
    • Jan-April 2017: 322 bets / 32 wins / 10% win SR / /+170 early|bog / +150 BFSP / 47% ROI
    • May-close 16th July, both main jumps pack + Summer Jumps: 122 bets/ 11 wins / +35 early|bog / +18 BFSP (after 5% commission) 
    • So, that makes a grand total for that approach: 444 bets / 43 wins / 10% sr / +205 early|Bog / +168 BFSP / 46% ROI (early/bog) 
    • There have been 4 losing runs of 25 or more, the worst around 40. The summer jumps hit one of 38 or so. But, those stats are solid given the numbers and those losing runs are what you would expect given the odd and win strike rate. So, that is a systematic approach for all jumps picks – definitely one to start off small and build up over time. Or you may just find that info useful when sifting through the qualifiers. 10-25/1 is generally the place to focus it seems. 

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Note for James… who asked about 3 year olds/weight for age/running in 3yo+ hncps… I had a go looking for any ways in and was struggling. There were a lot of qualifiers and most things I looked at lost stacks to SP, which I never like when building systems as you will end up with plenty of ‘rules’. There may well be a way in if I spent a good while looking but I don’t wish to do that with this type – i think you’d struggle for systematic approaches from what I could see – there wasn’t much on the trainer front either from a brief top level look. I couldn’t work out if there was a way to narrow down the parameters to only X number of 3 year olds in a race.  And given the allowances have changed it may be dangerous diving in with anything from previous years anyway, in my view. There also wasn’t much/any difference between how 3 year olds performed against older horses- the Actual Over Expected figs are similar through all the ages for those priced 14/1<. That is a top level view.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Thanks for taking the time to look at that Josh, sorry it didnt prove more fruitful. James

    jamesm 19/07/17 9:39 AM Reply


    • No problem, always happy to have a look at any suggestions/ideas – this one looked a tad too challenging. There will be something given the number of quals but would take plenty of time to find- and what with Galway/Goodwood/York/august on the horizon,and jumps Oct-, my research brain is a bit too occupied with other stuff at the moment. But if I get some more time I will dive in again as I don’t like admitting defeat. There are a few HRB users among our number though I think and maybe one of them may have a go!

      Josh 19/07/17 9:56 AM Reply


  • I was told to back Sadieroseclifford yesterday evening and am on at 8/1. It seems to be put up by a number of tipsters today. I can see it has some form that favours it to this course and distance etc. It seems to have now lost its value in price from what I can see. Any thoughts?

    martin colwell 19/07/17 11:12 AM Reply


    • Hmm.. it’s a brave punter that plays in a C6, 3 yo only handicap – and one at Yarmouth! I wouldn’t touch much at single figure odds personally, or at all, unless a compelling way in – but that is just me. His best turf run in open company has come on GF so that is a question as they had rain overnight. If you had to play my eyes would be drawn to jockeys,esp those riding for ‘odd’ trainers- so Doyle/Spencer would intrigue me. Couple of lurkers making handicap debut. Looks a a puzzle! But CD form should always be noted and he may well dot up. Not the kind of race where I can offer much insight! GL if you play.

      Josh 19/07/17 12:54 PM Reply


  • i looked at Sadieroseclifford, 8.20 Yar, as Kevin Stott rides and he has won on it before at this track over this distance, but dismissed it as thought maybe wanted proper g/f , has been disappointing on g/s and soft.???… im probably wrong, hope it wins for you.
    I preferred Tonto’s Spirit 5.25 Catt. Its difficult to ignore K Slack flat runners, 29/7/10, +12 last 2 years. Current hurdle mark is OR127 (has won off OR121) and flat mark is ‘only’ OR 60. That seems quite a big difference to me, 67lbs, Im sure i heard Mick Fitz on tv suggest it should be around 45lbs as a general guide. I do think this horse needs a bit of rain but might get that…..oh and is a front runner which should help also round Catt.

    jamesm 19/07/17 12:02 PM Reply


    • Tonto’s looks interesting if there is rain I think- and they could get a heavy shower- 9/2 or so just ok- only concern is the inexperience of the jockey but then most are in that camp. You’d have thought she would try and make all and then just depends what sort of clock she has. He looked progressive on soft before that Ham run- he hung there when under pressure, on GF, which suggest he may not have been putting down on it fully. I can see why you would be interested- needs rain/can’t go too quick|get in pace battle. Some ifs to my eyes but you can make a case and they may not see which way he’s gone if some cut.

      Josh 19/07/17 12:52 PM Reply


  • As far as weather and non runners i have yet to see better
    http://brenda.britishhorseracing.com/hoy/

    mozzer 19/07/17 2:37 PM Reply


  • I don’t suppose anybody picked out ‘Hayward Field’ yesterday did they? Long story short: he was an 80-1 winner at Thirsk yesterday. Remarkably comfortably in the end too. I’m gutted because I saw it come in and realised the jockey was Patrick Mathers. I remember him winning on a 12/1 shot last year and recall a few of his rides have gone in at big prices at this track. Done some digging around in the stats are here is what I was able to find:

    Patrick Mathers when riding at Thirsk:

    107 Runs/ 14 Wins – Strike Rate 13.1%. Not a great strike rate but if you had backed all his mounts blind at Thirsk you would be sat on a cool £3043.92 BFSP to £10 level stake. (Better luck next time chaps) 🙁

    Matt 19/07/17 9:23 PM Reply


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