Free Daily Post: 19/07/17 (complete)

No system qualifiers again.

 

Horse of Interest…

3.35 Uttox – Lady of Longstone– 8/1 | 9/1… UP*

*no excuse there really,was in the right place and didn’t go much of a pace- maybe best to wait for a flat track and ensure ground proper good/firmer- which I am not sure that was. Knew all that mind and was happy to have a nibble at that price. Moving on. 

Looks interesting for an EW play I think- the ‘way in’ is the pace angle. I’m sure she should be able to get an easy enough lead here and try and make all. That is usually how she wins her races. She comes here having shown more life on her last couple of starts and esp LTO over a shorter trip. Having won off 123 she is also well handicapped now and even more so with the 5lb claim. She is starting to look dangerous. It may not be today but you’d think she will be going close soon enough in a weak summer handicap. She wouldn’t want any rain so a thundery shower (possible) would ruin any chance and there is a niggle about her not liking the track. In fact on HRB metrics, in handicap hurdles on ‘flat’ tracks (this is slightly undulating) she is 5/14,8p,+29. Maybe she’ll bolt up NTO at Worcester or something. But 8/1 seems a decent enough price. The Newland horse may be too good/progressive but you can’t ever be scared of favs in this game.

**

That’s all for today.

 

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6 Comments

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  • From the other day….Charlie Appleby who also shows a decent strike rate and profit with 1st time headgear runners especially in class 4 and 5 races.
    2014: 31% , +15 BFSP
    2015: 36%, +17 BFSP
    2016: 38%, +7 BFSP
    2017: 40%, +6 BFSP

    Today:
    2.15 Lingfield, Fashion Theory, 4/1. (Seems a very strange market at the moment with 122% overround so not sure if there is a NR who hasn’t been removed yet or the bookies are just being overly cautious)

    Another from a weeks ago: Sir Michael Stoute does seem to do well with his runners at Lingfield in Class 4-6 races:
    2012: 7 winners / 22 runners (32% Strike rate),+51 BFSP.
    2013: 8/18 (44%), +10.
    2014: 5/18 (28%), +19.
    2015: 6/14 (43%), +7.
    2016:4/10 (40%), +8.

    Yet to have a winner this year from 5 runners.

    He has one in the 4.30: Forever In Love, 6/4.
    (Well done if you nicked the 5/2 or 9/4 first show earlier on today which lasted for about ten minutes!)

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 18/07/17 9:10 PM Reply


  • 19th July Sandown 7f Novice Auction
    4.25
    3.75 Go Bananas
    3.5
    3.25 Macaque, Guvenors Choice, Simply Breathless, Amiirah
    3
    2.75 Cheeky rascal, Jazz Affair, Great Vizier, Ground Nut,
    2.5
    2.25 Dance To Paris
    1.75 Champs Inblue .5 Secretario
    Preview – Fairly awful race when I have only rated a Salisbury winner Simply Breathless 67 and she looks as if she may be the best. The conditions certainly favour her a she is only carrying 1lb more than Groundnut rather than the usual 6lb for a win. Must be something to do with the conditions of the race.
    Looks as if it could easily go to an outsider. Lucy Wadham, has only had 3 wins from 2 x 2yo horses since 2010 but the form of her charge Dance To Paris’s run at Ponte over 6f looks ok. She was drawn widest of all in 11 and had to go all around the field running on mainly under h & h to take 2nd late. She is drawn well here and with Oisin up may well represent the best hope.
    Go Bananas who was only at Ascot for the owners fun may well be better over 7f if she has filled out a bit and is also well drawn.
    Simply Breathless is notably badly drawn but with Sam Hitchcott up will no doubt be competitive.

    Prior race notes
    Cheeky Rascal – fit enough, small and limited by size. 59
    Go Bananas – Here for the Pimms 60 (this was in the Qyueen Mary at Royal Ascot, she is a lightly made whippet of a thing but not without some appeal.
    Simply Breathless – Downhill, lower top end of small. 67
    Groundnut – Small and plain. 65
    Amiirah – Big unit, very green, leggy but shallow in the girth. 45
    Hugh

    alpha2 19/07/17 2:21 PM Reply


  • 7.50 Doncaster (Thurs)

    Just the 8 years of data to look through involving 79 runners.

    Last run, NO top 4: 1/46
    Last run, Class 3 : 1/33
    Wins at 7f, NOT 1-2: 0/38

    Explain (5/1) the only one to tick all the boxes.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 19/07/17 5:11 PM Reply


    • Well, I reckon (5/1) is usually explained as some sort of ratio, unfortunately I am unable to explain the use of brackets in this example

      Chris Albin 19/07/17 7:12 PM Reply


      • I think it’s the price….

        warren bottomley 19/07/17 8:16 PM Reply


  • From the other day…
    Fahey has shown to do well with his fancied (<25/1) handicap runners at Leicester/Nottingham/Warwick over 6f-1m1f.
    This year he is now 4/17,+2 BFSP, 2016: 9/41 +50, 2015:11/33 +77, 2014: 6/28 +18.

    Three fit the bill tomorrow:
    3.15 Leicester,Character Onesie, 5/2.
    3.50 Leicester, Bahamian Bird, 10/1.
    4.20 Leicester, Ventura Dragon, 13/2.

    Chris Baxendale 19/07/17 5:23 PM Reply


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