Members Daily Post: 18/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

Baby Fact is an ES qual,missed the code first time, correct as of 8.40 am…. 

 

FLAT 

Bath 

2.30 – Coronation Cottage (3yo+) 30 ES H3 I3 G3 9/2   WON 9/2>5/2

4.00-

Go Amber Go (all hncps) ES I3 G3 4/1 UP

Baby Fact (3yo+, + micro runs) 30  ES    H3 I3 G1 4/1 UP

4.30 – Imphal (3yo+) 14,30  H3 I3 G1 11/10    WON 11/10>4/6

 

Beverley

3.15 – Sarabi  (3yo+) H3 I3 9/2

4.15 – Major Crispies (micro TJC) ES  I3 6/1  2nd , nose (ah,monkey,herd horse,did not want to pass leader,will need special ride to win/those in front to just stop)

4.45 – Mon Beau Visage (micro TJC) ES  H1 I3 G3 9/2  3rd 4/1

5.45 –

Royal Reserve (4yo+) ES H3 I1 7/4 2nd  11/4

Lean On Pete (4yo+) H1 15/2 UP

 

Thirsk

8.40 – 

Mc Vicar (4yo+) 14,30, H3 G3 8/1

Carthage (micro class) I1 10/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Worcester

8.30 – Coutrlands Prince (hncp hurlde+ micro 90 days) 9/1

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/50,20p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/1111, +24.6)

no test tips today, nothing in the 6/1+ range catching the eye (I really should attempt to be disciplined with my odds cut off for ‘tips’) , that is at the unexposed end of the scale.

Plenty of ES quals and other strategy qualifiers. Sayem added to those profits yesterday, taking the 3 advised strategies to a combined +60 odd points. IF that is a sign of thing to come we shall have some fun before the proper racing returns in October! 🙂 You could make a case for her outside of any strategy mind- unexposed, won LTO/in form, second start over the distance and a chance there was more to come. Massive speed figure and the jockey booking was interesting. 15/2 / 8s did look on the generous side and I hope you had a nibble. Less said about some of the others the better!

Today… well my aim isn’t to put you off a horse with my own thoughts so I won’t be doing that- I think you can make some sort of case for most of the ES quals- I fancy Baby Fact to finish ahead of Amber Go but we know what happens now! With any luck one or two of them can hit the board- most should run their race to my eyes. Not many are in the unexposed category though so we are relying on an old performance being repeated i think and that being good enough,while hoping that no lurkers have a tonne in hand. Fingers crossed O’Meara has a good day!

There are a couple of exposed ones who look interesting.. Lean On Peter- well he is consistent and races prominently. He may also have a load of pace to track and they could go too quick here. They may try and make all. He stays further. He loves the track, is in form, and gives you everything. I have had an EW nibble- which is rare for me, usually just on the nose, but 15/2,8/1 1/4 odds looked ok and he has won off much higher AW marks in the past. It looks competitive. The jockey has won on him also. I would hope he gives me a run for my money.

Carthage is interesting in that he has looked out-paced over 12f at times- it may be he is just out of form- but they step him up to 2 miles here and I have thrown £5 at him to find out, given he is 10s. He may not stay but as the old saying goes, he is ‘doing something different’ for the first time on the flat, and you just never know.

 

Cool Run Girl… those of you who have trackers etc, do throw her in- and remind me if I miss her when she next runs.. that was an iffy looking ride wasn’t it?? Hands and heels most of the way and it gave the impression that at one stage the jockey thought ‘oh my, she’s going too well’ – I don’t know what to make of it but she took a big drift in the market and there was a gap to go through at one stage. Maybe the jockey felt she wasn’t putting down on the ground! Anyway – who knows if she will be a price NTO but 6f in a C6 could see her romp home for me- i’ll be dusting off that trusty wheelbarrow and shovelling it on (ie, £20 odd!)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Irish Angles

7.50 Killarney – Archive / Devil’s Bride / Killeney Court

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: 

-I have updated the Flat advised strategies link above, correct as of close of play Sunday 16th July. This will be updated weekly but of course you’re free to keep tabs on what you back etc.

-Jumps + Summer Jumps…

SPREADSHEETS

-‘Winter’ Jumps 2017-16th July: Link HERE>>>

-Summer Jumps 2017-16th July: Link HERE>>>

 

  • As discussed yesterday the #1 strategy revolved around the Geegeez Speed ratings which return later in the year. The other strategy was just based on the odds of runners as noted by me next to the horse on the morning of racing. I usually look around 8am or so and note the price generally available with at least 2 major bookies. This strategy simply looked at backing every horses that was in the 10/1 -25/1 price range as noted next to the horse. The SP is irrelevant. It became apparent as the season progressed that the jumps stats find many decent priced winners and the profit fell in this band. The results…
    • Jan-April 2017: 322 bets / 32 wins / 10% win SR / /+170 early|bog / +150 BFSP / 47% ROI
    • May-close 16th July, both main jumps pack + Summer Jumps: 122 bets/ 11 wins / +35 early|bog / +18 BFSP (after 5% commission) 
    • So, that makes a grand total for that approach: 444 bets / 43 wins / 10% sr / +205 early|Bog / +168 BFSP / 46% ROI (early/bog) 
    • There have been 4 losing runs of 25 or more, the worst around 40. The summer jumps hit one of 38 or so. But, those stats are solid given the numbers and those losing runs are what you would expect given the odd and win strike rate. So, that is a systematic approach for all jumps picks – definitely one to start off small and build up over time. Or you may just find that info useful when sifting through the qualifiers. 10-25/1 is generally the place to focus it seems. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Had Paddy been booked 7.00 Luccombe Down might have been a bit of value at the 10 but interestingly Gavin Sheehan takes the ride,a jockey that spends too much time looking behind for my liking

    gearoid180468 18/07/17 9:42 AM Reply


    • I think Greatrex came to that view also! Has ‘ditched’ him as #1 jockey, Richard Johnson is getting first refusal this season, when commitments allow (Hobbs/Daly/Vaughan) so that’s something to watch. WG thinks it will be good fro Sheehan to learn from Dicky after a shaky year. So, he will be available more I suspect for outside rides if he can get them. Got talent but progress may have stalled.

      Josh 18/07/17 9:46 AM Reply


    • I personally couldn’t resist the 10s. I personally think Paddy makes more of a difference over fences than hurdles. Not quite sure why he did so poorly LTO but really should be winning one of these given his form this year and in fairness they may have all just bumped into one although the winner did disappoint NTO. Likes the track also. I thought the booking was interesting given its Gavin’s first ride for O’Brien. I might think of him more than you guys since I put him in the level just below the top jockeys but still better than most so this could be part of a shrewd move from Fergal given Paddy can’t be everywhere. Plus sometimes a jockey changes works out like a change in headgear.

      nickmazur 18/07/17 10:33 AM Reply


  • We shall watch with interest

    gearoid180468 18/07/17 11:33 AM Reply


  • Cool Run Girl has an entry at Hamilton on Thursday. (Class 6). Draw could have been kinder.

    NICK 18/07/17 2:43 PM Reply


    • Oh yes, so she does, cheers for that… 5f- may be ok once they hit climb, and on better ground an unknown- maybe what she wants. Interesting that Nathan Evans is booked, decent jock and 3lb claim a bonus. Draw is ok, 5 out of 10, nearside has been favoured when it has been wet on recent starts. Depends on the weather- may be rain by then so who knows. Also, there isn’t much pace in the race on paper, having just looked. No out and out front runners. I think she stays 6- maybe they just try bombing her out in front, getting the rail and whoosh, away she goes. if she lines up i’ll have to back her, price allowing. Doesn’t always go to plan of course but she must have a few weak handicaps in her soon.

      Josh 18/07/17 2:50 PM Reply


      • Cool run girl was also a notebook horse from another source

        danegold 19/07/17 2:36 AM Reply


        • Which one? Cleeve by any chance?

          Josh 19/07/17 10:16 AM Reply


  • Yes but didn’t know whether to publish their name on your site

    danegold 19/07/17 12:30 PM Reply


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