Members Daily Post: 15/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ascot 

2.40 – Burguillos (micro class) H3 G1 9/2 UP

5.35 –

Esprit De Corps (all hncps) 30  7/1

Outer Space (3yo+) I1 20/1

 

Newmarket

3.25 –

Tashweeq (3yo+) 14 9/2 UP

Withernsea (micro class) 33/1 UP

 

Chester

1.50 – Ginbar (2YO) 6/1 2nd 4/1

 

York

3.05 –

Central Square (all hncps) 14 20/1 UP

UAE Prince (all hncps+ micro TJC) 14 10/1 4th 8/1

Victory Bond (micro age) 14,30 8/1 UP

Big Country (micro runs) 10/1 2nd 7/1

4.45 – Theydon Grey (micro age) 14,30 H3 3/1 WON 5/2

 

Salisbury

6.20 – Carpe Diem Lady (micro class) H3 I1  9/2

7.20 – Zamalight (3yo+) 14 14/1

7.50- Zoffanist (3yo+) 14 G1 12/1

8.50 – Prosper (all hncps) 14 H3 I3 G3 G1  7/1

 

Hamilton

6.35 – Bronze Beau (3yo+) ES  H1 G3 5/1

7.55 – Highly Sprung (micro class) I3 8/1

8.05 –

Archies Affair (3yo+) 30 H3 I3 11/4

Archipeligo (micro class) I3 G3   13/2

 

Bonus (3YO Only)

3.35 – Look My Way  ES  H3 I3  9/2 2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/44,18p, +4.1) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/105, +30.6)

Strap yourselves in.. at least yesterday’s winner paid for what follows… the quoted price is available with at least 2x+ big bookies and as always suggest you have a browse of Oddschecker…

 

2.40 Ascot – Burguillos– 1 point win – 9/2 UP (last/weak in market/pulled/4 wide/something up/off day)

5.35 Ascot – Esprit De Corps – 1 point win – 7/1 2nd 5/1 (ahhhh, hit the front,looked like winner,didn’t put to bet,collared late) 

3.05 York – Victory Bond 8/1  UP | UAE Prince 10/1 4th – both 1 point win each (no complaints UAE,VB too far back in race with no pace, poor ride,not sure made difference mind. Was a competitive race) 

7.50 Salisbury – Zoffanist – 1 point win – 12/1 (that is going quick, 10s in plenty of places..get on!)

8.50 Salisbury – Prosper – 1 point win – 7/1

 

A busy day ahead and with any luck one or two of these go in… a general point… my approach with the flat ‘starting points’ from section one, when attacking a race cold (ie outside of the systematic strategies as discussed.. ‘ES’ looking the most exciting of those, double/treble top rated looking decent also) is to generally focus on the unexposed horses and whether they are ‘doing something different’ from recent runs, as a reason for why they may show improved form, or build on recent form. My eyes head straight for those in the 6/1 range (generally,more on 2.40 Ascot in a moment!). When a horse is doing something different and/or is lightly raced, you always have hope. Add in some trainer form, some supporting statst (trainer/jockey,first time handicaps,record moving horses up in distance ete etc) and you can find yourself some tasty winners. I am slowly getting there with my flat picks and had a few of those placed horses got there a stride sooner that profit figure would look a bit better. Anyway…

Burguillos… danger danger… he is under 6/1 and long suffering readers know that I can struggle at this end of the market. You just have to be right a lot of the time the shorter you go- and being right is hard. Making profit at that end is hard, and it isn’t as much fun. Cheering home 9/2 winners is still fun, not so much 9/4, 5/4 etc. You just won’t win long term at that sharp end in my opinion. Well, I won’t anyway. This horse… well he is lightly raced and I suppose he isn’t doing anything different- but I couldn’t get away from the form of his two most recent runs- it is very solid and has produced a few winners. Indeed 2 starts ago he split two subsequent winners, Lord Yeats won a listed race at Newmarket and Varian’s hacked up in a C3. He looks sure to run his race and this looks easier than those assignments. Trainer/jockey are 2/16,8p on the flat, Harley knows the horse, and he is riding well at the moment  – an in form confident jockey. IF he repeats his recent runs he should go close here. He is top rated Geegeez which caught the eye also. There is a Burrows horse to worry about but that length of break would concern me- a question anyway. Unless they have tinkered with his wind etc but he faces a hardly battler here and I am rarely put off a bet by others in the race- this is about whether I can make a case for anything in section 1, and if I like the price.

Esprit De Corps – Charlton’s are going ok and this one runs in an all age handicap. He is 3lb off top rated on ratings but carries 11lb less. He is unexposed and the three in front of him in that Ponty race have all won since. A decent little contest for the track. He is up in trip and down in class! – that’s the ‘doing something different’ boxes ticked and reasons why he could do better- as well as being open to progression still. He runs as if 7f will suit and will have developed since he tried it in a maiden. We have that man Harley again, and he is 3/9,5p when riding for Charlton on the turf. Decent. 13/2 seemed a fair price as he could take a step forward here. I couldn’t leave him given the profile, class drop, distance move.

Victory Bond and UAE Prince- well I nearly dodged these two- but for the illogical reason of -‘oh this race looks too hard,let’s leave it’- but the horses tick my boxes. They are both lightly raced and both run for trainers at the top of their game. Light rain as just starting in York and these two won’t mind if it goes GS- not on paper anyway. And that poses a question for Noseda’s horse. Both trainers have won this race in recent years and the days break suggests this has been a plan. They may have wanted to protect their marks and I believe the latter may have had the dreaded ‘cut’. Poor bugger. They both just have the ‘could be anythings’ about them. The former has course form and steps back up in trip which should suit, won his maiden over 10f. The latter drops in trip and in class. He looks to have ability and they clearly feel he could concentrate more. Their prices allow a play. The trainers are in flying form and these two will run above these marks at some point.

Zoffanist – the first time blinkers are the ‘way in’ and a reason he ‘could’ improve. He is top rated on geegeez and there isn’t loads of pace on in here- Simcock’s was a reluctant leader the last day, more pulling himself to the front. I hope these spark him up, but not too much, and they send him to the front and try and make all. That’s what I would do. The trainer has an ok record with 1st time blinkers- i just don’t like seeing a really poor record- 14/122,31p, +16 is ok with such types. This is only the horse’s third handicap start and he ran ok to a point LTO. There should be more to come at some point if/when they find the key. Finally, the trainer is in form, 2/9,3p in the last 14 days. At a double figure price I had to have a go.

Prosper- well god help us (me) if we get to this stage in proceedings needing a winner- Varian can do no wrong at the moment and this one also gets 1st time blinkers. He drops in class and moves back up in trip. Varian has a good record with first time blinkers also- I think Chris posted such a comment a couple days back in the free posts. There are 3/4 front runners in here and with any luck he sits just behind them and sweeps past in the final furlong. Again he is running in an all age handicap – he is 2lb off top weight on ratings but carries 12lb less. Trainer/jockey are 1/1 at the track and i have no concerns on that front, his stats are decent enough. He is in my price range and there is enough there to have a dart.

 

If you follow me in do start small- much fun can be had with £2.50 bets – indeed such stakes on the ES quals, Bet of Day, and the double/treble top rated winners yesterday won 15.5 points- that’s 3 months subs for £2.50 bets- super. Of course I may give some back today but you get the point. Plenty of time to build up the betting bank. No need to bet big in this game to have fun and you don’t have £30-40 per months subs to worry about. I am a bit better over jumps as the stats suggest and that is my main passion, but the flat is doing ok and the ‘tips’ have run consistently enough for me to have faith in the long run. Hopefully a couple above can run well. With a 15% win SR there will be bumps in the road though. GL! 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

2.10 Ascot – Yalta

2.15 Newm – Miss Infinity UP

7.05 Ham – Highly Sprung

8.35 Ham – Pennington

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

JULY MEETINGNOTES HERE>>>

Ah, i feel that Doswell may have been the biggie micro winner to make the week- but sadly he came a SH second in a photo. He was 16s, drifted to 50s in the day in places, 20s SP. Nearly, but just done by experience. Three shorties went in but they don’t pay the bills/stock the beer fridge/wine rack. Let’s hope Gosden/Johnston can have a good day…

Day 3 

Micros

1.45 – Juliet Capulet (m3) 3rd 12/1

2.15 – Gymnaste (m3) 2nd 

2.50 – Masham Star (m2) 2nd 10/1

3.25 –

Tashweeq (m3) UP

Withernsea (m1) (20/1< guide – none of Fahey’s running that well) UP

4.00 Great Prospector (m1 20/1< guide) (missed 1st time) 3rd 

4.35 – Growl (m1) /Mr Lupton (m1) (20/1< guide the pair) all up, as expected.

 

Notes  

1.45 – The Mums UP / Sizzling 2nd

4.00- Gustav Klimt WON

4.35 – Carravaggio 3rd

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Crikey. That’s the lot today. GL with whatever bits you dive into.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

2 Comments

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  • Free post… some content in there that you may also find interesting… https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/07/14/free-daily-post-150717-upd1/

    (remember when logged in I think you can hit ‘home’ to see all blog posts,inc members/free/guest etc)
    Josh

    Josh 14/07/17 9:34 PM Reply


  • The micros picked up on Friday with an 11/4 winner and a 20/1 shot beaten in a photo. Let us see what Saturday brings?

    I have been waiting for these two to run at a price – 2.30 Yo, Nakeeta, 16/1 and 3,05 Yo, Briardale, 33/1.

    Gustav Klimt, 4.00 Nkt, needs to win to look like a proper runner for the 2018 Guineas.

    martin colwell 14/07/17 11:16 PM Reply


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