Members Daily Post: 14/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

A couple of updates from first post,correct as of 19.25 pm- a couple of erroneous ES qualifiers for KR,and a couple of missed quals first time through. (5.55+8.35 Mus)  The former are very close to my ES criteria though,as per the report below but do not officially qualify. 

 

FLAT

Newmarket (july)

1.50 –

Parfait (3yo+) H1 G1 5/2 WON 5/2

Stamp Hill (micro class+age) ES 25/1 UP

 

York

2.40 – Mainstream (3yo+) 14,30 9/4 2nd 

3.45 – Novoman (micro age) 14,30 G3  10/1 WON 10/1>9/2 

4.55 – Lapilli (micro age) 7/2 UP

 

Ascot

None.

 

Chepstow

5.45 – Kaisan (micro dist) 14 ES 16/1

6.45 –

Quantom Dot (all hncps) 10/3 UP

Swendab (3yo+) H3 G1 11/2 UP

7.50 – Kinglami (3yo+) H3 I3 5/1 UP

8.25 –

Delirium (all hncps) 25/1 2nd 14/1

Harmonise (micro age) H3 I3 G3 11/2 UP

9.00-

Carcharias (all hncps) G3 9/2 2nd 

Peak Storm (3yo+) I3 12/1 UP

Chicago Star (micro age) H3 G3 5/1 UP

 

Musselburgh

5.55 – Cheeni (micro runs) ES I3 G3  5/1 UP

7.25 – Kibaar (all hncps, +3yo+) ES I1 12/1 UP

8.00-

Fine Example (all hncps + 3yo+,+ micro age) ES H3 15/2 UP

Slemy (micro going) 11/1 UP

8.35 –

La Bacouetteuse (micro dist) I3 14/1 UP

Stoneham (micro dist) H3 I3 12/1 UP

9.10-  Tropical Bachelor (micro going) G3 12/1 UP

 

Carlisle

6.05 – Circuitous (micro dist) ES G3 12/1 UP

8.10 – Dark Profit (micro class) ES I1 9/1 WON 9/1 (20p R4) > 7/1>7/2 

**

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/43,18p, -4.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 14/104, +21.6)

 

3.45 York- Novoman – 1 point win 9/1 (PP/BV//Betfs) 8/1 (gen) WON 9/1>9/2 

There seems to be some money for this one and his price has been nibbled at while I have been pondering. He fits the type of profile that I am convinced will see me do ok over time with these flat picks. Of those in the 6/1+ range on morning prices he looks most interesting, albeit I will mention a couple below in a moment. He is lightly raced on the flat and there should be more to come as he develops further. Haggas is in decent form at the moment and is one of the few ‘in form’ (geegeez indicators as per Key) in this race. He is 12/39,18p in the last 14 days. So, why should he improve on recent runs, what is he doing differently? It looks to be about the move up in trip by 2f. He is running as if he no longer has the toe for shorter and wants more of a test. Haggas is 4/16,9 places with horses he moves in distance by 20% or more from last run in the previous 2 years (up or down) so can clearly judge when to do it. He also goes from 3yo only handicaps to 3yo+ which means he gets an allowance, which plus the 5lb claim could be very helpful. And he drops in class here, from 2 to 4. That should help also. The final piece is the jockey- more to make sure she can ride, and rides winners for Haggas (who may well be her boss, i’m not sure). They are 8/41,14p in flat handicaps, 2/9,4p at the track. No problems there at all. The horse is a concern in that is can be very free- I am not convinced there is enough pace on here/it will be run at a strong enough gallop. But, all those positives, and his price, have tipped the balance really. Maybe they will try a change of tactics and run him from the front. But, he is worth a go for me.

Of the rest…

There are some interesting cappers running at Musselburgh that are worth keeping an eye on, if not today, then for the future. Kibaar is becoming very well handicapped again and the cheekpieces return here. He was drawn wide at Chester and was given a ‘get your mark down,we are never winning from the car park, kind of ride’. He has made all over CD before but there is some other pace here and he is drawn a bit away from the desired rail. But I suspect they may change tactics. I would want to see a bit more before wading in but i suspect he will make all in one of these northern handicaps in the coming weeks, maybe back here.

Canny Ruth Carr, with her unique training methods that help horses just bounce back to life (lunging- don’t know what that looks like in practice-,lots of turning out in paddocks etc) has a couple here. Slemy is interesting… I don’t like to think they have ‘done a job’ on this one but my word he is very very well handicapped now. The only ‘way in’ is that he is returning to the CD of his last win. Interesting. But that is it and he has shown nothing at all on recent starts, inc at Wetherby where he has won. He doesn’t even move in class here. It has left me scratching my head. Maybe they are running him here to see if it sparks him up.  But one to track, as he will strike again at some point either here or Wetherby I suspect.

Tropical Bachelor caught my eye at a price also- but he is 11 and had 33 odd turf starts- but he hasn’t run a bad race for Ruth and returned after 690 off days off LTO. He could bounce here but he may have been fit enough the last day. He drops into C6 which caught the eye and he did run well on his return LTO. His mark looks very interesting also if he retains any ability. This looks a weak enough race and I may throw some shrapnel at him. And knowing me probably Slemy- something doesn’t seem right there- maybe he is just out of form, or he hacks up. Conundrum.

*

There are a handful of ‘ES’ qualifiers and with any luck they keep up their consistent start. Some nice prices there. Swendab quals on strategy 2 (as per link in Key) and Parfait on #1, albeit 5/2 is too short for me personally and certainly in a race like that- but he may make that look a decent price.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

6.05 Carl- Ravenhoe 3rd 8/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

JULY MEETINGNOTES HERE>>>

The less said about day 1 the better. My attempt to rattle through the card didn’t go as well as Pontefract. Sadly none of the stats really fired and that was me done for. My parents and some of their friends went to the racing today. Being the resident ‘expert’ they obviously wanted ‘tips’. Gulp. I owe them dinner. One of their group played cards so they had the Johnston winner and come the final race they ditched my advice and found the winner themselves. Hurt pride there, but that often happens. And they never go jumps racing! The big meeting notes are due a blip but with any luck the next two days will be better, but we shall see. Hopefully the micros can find a nice priced winner or two. 

None of Gosden’s went that well from memory and that may be something to keep an eye on. Appleby’s yard is flying and Varian’s continues to tick along. Following trainers in form at meetings can work so it will be interesting if they bag any more winners. I’ll see who else is ‘in form’ before tomorrow.

Newmarket Day 2

Micro Systems

1.50 – Parfait (m3) WON 5/2 / Stamp Hill (m1) (20/1< guide) UP

2.25 – Darkanna (m1) (20/1< guide) UP

3.00- Monticello UP / Titi Makfi (m2) UP

4.10 – Guzman (m1) (20/1< guide) UP

4.45 – Doswell (m3) 2nd 20/1   (AH)

 

Notes

2.25 – Clemmie WON 2/1 

3.35 – Greta G UP/ Roly Poly WON 5/2 

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Big Meeting Notes… I did have a flick through Chester/York/Royal Ascot/Curragh… and on my maths there has been round +110 points to BFSP worth of profit hidden within the micros/notes, before this week. Numerous 8/1, 14/1, 20/1+ winners, and plenty of losers too. I haven’t backed them all and have around 55 points or so profit I think, most of that to £5s, albeit I had a few bigger darts at the Curragh quals a couple of weeks back. It’s all good fun. With any luck a decent priced one can go in today. 

**

That’s lot for today. GL with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    Firstly a couple of queries, shouldn’t Kaisan be an ES?
    and is KR a late addition I’ve missed to the elite list.

    Onto double jeopardy in the 8.35 where Stoneham also runs for IJ.

    and

    Muss 5.55 – Cheeni (micro runs) ES

    Cheers

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 13/07/17 6:51 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike,
      Thanks for the couple of missed ones. I fully expected to miss a couple first run through there.

      The ES – yea made a couple of errors there- the criteria as per the report were meant to be strictly applied but Kaisan’s trainer has got through the net- he very nearly hits but probably shouldn’t be in there technically.
      An error with Kevin Ryans- I do not use the separate ES report to find qualifiers, more keep the criteria in my head when using the main report to find qualifiers- Ryans win/place stats correct, but he is +14 BFSP, and not +15 BFSP which was the strict cut off. One of those- there are a few that are very close.

      Josh

      Josh 13/07/17 7:32 PM Reply


      • Oh, that is tight, I’ll be kicking myself if I don’t back them now

        Cheers

        titus_a_duxass 13/07/17 7:41 PM Reply


        • There is the odd one like that, I put a cross next to them on my notepad – I should probably draw attention to them in section 2. I wanted to be strict with the criteria- you have to draw the line somewhere. Swendab/Kinglami/Harmonise/Chicago Star all have solid enough stats behind them, very close to my criteria 20 bets min, 5 wins, 20% winSR + 50% win/place , or 25% win.. +15 BFSP .

          Josh 13/07/17 7:48 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh and thanks for today’s summary of the Big Meetings returns. +110 points BFSP profit is some achievement. Don’t forget to remind your parents of this when they’re ribbing you about yesterday’s results. Rome wasn’t built in a day and no doubt the master stone masons had off days too as they strove to glory. Onwards and upwards, as they say.

    Patrick

    Patrick 14/07/17 10:24 AM Reply


    • Hi Patrick, yep they have found some decent winners… there will be poor days, and poor meetings. Some of the stats won’t work etc. Some of the trainers may be out of form- still dealing with small numbers in general, but if they help members enjoy these meetings and help find the odd nice price winner/make some sort of profit, that is the main thing. Just surviving these meetings can be an achievement. I don’t back them all systematically, i try and take an opinion. I miss the odd winner, but I prefer that approach. Some may just throw small bets at the lot! Profit, as with the main stats, is generally to be found in the bigger priced ones- and as we know, that can be a bumpy ride at times!

      Josh 14/07/17 10:40 AM Reply


  • Following the Newmarket stats over the cliff waiting for the profit!

    I am having a go at 66/1 on Cosmopolitan Queen in 2.25 NKT. Couple of others but too short a price to mention.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 14/07/17 10:24 AM Reply


    • Good luck Martin, I hope there is a decent priced winner or two to come today or tomorrow. Nothing much at a price went in yesterday but today may have a more open feel, we shall see. Cue a load of <6/1 shots winning again.

      Josh 14/07/17 10:42 AM Reply


  • Ah better have small bets on the big prices at theses meetings,and there is some proper racing Sunday,not a stall that side of the pond to be worrying about the draw

    gearoid180468 14/07/17 11:37 AM Reply


  • Novoman…Great shout Josh…It p***** it…. Well done.

    Tony mc.

    tonymc 14/07/17 3:51 PM Reply


    • That was interesting to watch- he was keen again!- will be some machine if he ever settles. But the trip has been the key and unlocked all his potential as a 3 year old. Just have to be patient and wait for those types/boxes to be ticked, the ‘start points’ in section 1 highlight enough of them over time. That was fun. Good when your main bet of the day (financially) dots up!

      Josh 14/07/17 3:52 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh,you are in the black on the flat now!

    gearoid180468 14/07/17 4:19 PM Reply


    • cheers, I keep hovering!! It doesn’t take many winners in that price range to boost the P/L.. slowly getting there- patience with that kind of profile is key I think- there are enough of them over time. Confidence boost if nothing else.

      Josh 14/07/17 4:21 PM Reply


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