Free Daily Post: 13/07/17 (complete)

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Flat 2017: 60+ Days

7.35 Newb – Ouja

 

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From the Members’ Club…

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/42,17p, -3.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 14/103, +22.6)

3.20 Donc – Shenanigans – 1 point win – 15/2 / 7/1 2nd 7/2, head – painful viewing. 

Of those in the 6/1+ range and that are in the unexposed/more to come category, this one looks most interesting to my iffy ‘flat’ eyes. The first thing to note is the form of Roger Varian- he must be the hottest trainer around at the moment and anything he runs should be noted. In the last 14 days he is 11/33 which is decent, but 25 have won or placed. Safe to say they are going well. The horse – well this one is having her third handicap start and her first run since Varian hit his hot streak. She is going to show more in handicaps at some point. She moves back up in trip here also- so ‘doing something different’ from her most recent runs- which is my new (old) catchphrase. This extra furlong or so could bring out more. She returns to turf which may be a positive or in any case has run well at Doncaster before. Varian has also booked the inform Tudhope- most of the ‘big boys’ will be at Newmarket and I suspect he is in the top 3/top jockey riding at the course this afternoon. The horse is an ES qual and some way clear of the rest on Geegeez Speed figures. The last day she was trapped wide for a way and will need to improve for that run. It could be that the Fanshawe horse is much the best and will beat her again- but she does have to go and prove it on turf, which she may do. But that makes Evens look short enough. Donny is no Kempton.

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July Meeting Day 1

The following horses are derived from various July Meeting stats and caught my eye for one reason or another. This approach usually goes one of two ways so we shall see! No doubt i’ll give back plenty of my Ponty winnings and fun stakes are advised… (EW for those where price allows may be the safe choice…)

1.50 –

Wisconsin

2.25 – It Don’t Come Easy / US Navy Flag

3.00- Unabated / Love Dreams  (Poets Society and Brian The Snail hit a few stats also)

3.35 – Wings of Desire (Appleby is going to win 1 or more today no doubt and I’ve backed none, his looks strong in here but too short for me. And I had a nibble on this one LTO)

4.05 – Maybride (again on short side) / Wild Impala (Appleby and Palmer horses also interesting but can’t back them all…)

4.35 – Ice Age (EW)

5.05 – Tricorn

 

We shall see how that little lot gets on.

 

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RACING TO PROFIT MEMBERS’ CLUB….

I am accepting new members again now and if you want to give the 21 day free trial a go you can sign up HERE>>>

(My Big Meeting Trainer Notes and the new Elite Squad have really brought the Flat season to life. The latter is +31 points up in just 22 days since inception and long may it continue. The big meeting notes have found numerous big priced winners already this year so now is a good time to have a look at the link above)

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • 3.00 Newmarket (Thursday)
    6f, Class 2
    3yo only…….

    341 runners – 20 runnings.
    Season runs, NOT 2-4: 1/94
    Last run,7f: 1/57
    Last run, non handicap race: 1/77
    Last win, class 5: 0/53

    182 runners – 10 years
    Season runs, NOT 3-4: 1/87
    Last run, NO top 9: 0/40
    Last run, >30 days: 0/40
    Last run, NOT class 2 or 3: 1/53
    Last run, <8k: 0/34
    Career places,< 4: 1/71
    Last win, Class 4 or 5: 0/85
    Last win, NOT 6f/7f: 1/51

    Ekhtiyaar (8/1) and Golden Apollo (8/1) tick every single box.
    Looking at just the 3 key stats in the past 10 years, ie those stats with with more than 70 runners accounted for above, also gives us Bacchus (20/1).
    Looking at the trainers, Balding stands out having won this last year and 3 of the 4 previous runners to that finishing 4-4-1. His runner Perfect Angel (25/1) only misses out by tick.

    Many books offering 5 places with Sky going 6!

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 12/07/17 10:05 PM Reply


    • That was terrific Chris,,,The winner and a good place… Top stuff. Cheers.
      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 13/07/17 3:34 PM Reply


      • Bacchus nicked 5th too!

        Chris Baxendale 13/07/17 5:14 PM Reply


  • 13th July Newmarket 6f July Stakes
    4.25 Cardsharp, Denaar, Grand Koonta, Sound & Silence, U S Navy Flag
    3.75 Invincible Army
    3.5
    3.25 Rajasinghe, Alba Power, Enjazaat, Hey Gaman, It Don’t Come Easy
    3
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25 Roland Rocks
    Preview – Reviewing Rajasinghe’s Coventry win it is very difficult to crib him. The three who I will be looking at most closely to see if he is worth taking on are Enjazaat, Invincible Army and Hey Gaman.

    Prior race notes
    Denaar – Ok, top end of small another one I was expecting to like more. Broken by trying to burn the rest off early. 82
    Grand Koonta – Lightly made, ready type, smaller in this field. Green and colty for an extended period. Ran well all things considered and given behaviour calls quality of race into question. 75
    Grand Koonta – Not the physique of the winner, calm in the prelims and looking very fit. Clearly has a very good engine in an ordinary frame. He was superfit here versus the winner’s 90% max. Still better than thought of on debut. 82
    Enjazaat – Huge strongly made but carrying too much condition. Have to be charitable and suggest that he was drawn badly and also did not like the going, otherwise a very disappointing effort. Have to believe he has 80’s potential.
    Sound And Silence – Medium size. Strongly made well-built type, a bit downhill and looked to be carrying plenty of condition. Enough to lead me into thinking he would need the run and that Charlie Appleby was not going to have them ready fto. In the event like Said Bin Suroor’s early debuts last year there is an underlying level of fitness and/or class that enables them to beat an averagish field of lesser types. 84
    Rajasinghe – Only medium, chunky and very strongly made. Even with hindsight does not look as promising as Murillo who may have been a tad unlucky. 100
    U S Navy Flag – Low slung, strong, top end of small although he does have a big groom which may exaggerate that. 77
    Invincible Army – Powerfully made, full medium, bit colty but not too bad. Also came from behind. Written up by RP as away slowly, it seemed to me that Martin Harley saw that Kirby was off at a 5f pace on KOKO and decided to settle IA instead. Then made up ground as the others at the front began to come under pressure. An efficient use of his animal and unfortunate to get mugged by Masar. 92
    Hey Gaman – If anything I marginally preferred Hey Gaman to Westerland and it may have been his inexperience which just told. Big strong lad, still lots to work on 85
    Hugh

    alpha2 12/07/17 11:33 PM Reply


  • 13th July Newmarket 6f Fillies Mdn Cl2
    4.25 Maybride , Pulitzer, Spring Cosmos, Toomer
    3.75 Amandine, Anna Nerium, Lamya, Wild Impala
    3.5
    3.25 Gold Eagle, Indicia
    3
    2.75
    2.5
    2.25 Shadow Seeker, She’Sastorm
    1.5 Fabulous Red
    Preview – I suppose Maybride’s 10th in the Queen Mary is the best form here and for that she deserves to be favourite, however she was well drawn and had no excuse to not finish closer other than Bud Flanagan in the seat. Today she has Ryan Moore who might just make the difference. Her previous 2nd to Ertiyad on the soft at Haydock looks ok, particularly after Peggy’s Angel’s win (at Windsor on Monday). 9/4 does not look any value, the problem is finding something with which to oppose her.
    I am still hoping that the Hannon’s have some good ammunition in the stable, here they have Anna Nerium who I did not like on debut. Given Pulitzer’s algo score I like the look of her and Spring Cosmos best if Maybride can be taken on.

    Prior race notes
    Anna Nerium – Proximity of this one calls all the form further into question. Small and plain. 60
    Maybride – Tall and leggy, bit awkwardly made. 73

    Hugh

    alpha2 12/07/17 11:44 PM Reply


  • 7.55 Leopardstown, 1m2f

    257 – 19
    Wins over shorter, >2: 0/46

    131 – 10
    Age: older than 5: 0/50
    Career wins, NOT 1-3: 0/46

    Four make it through:

    Windsor Beach looks short enough at 7/2 in such a competitive race.
    The other three are: Elusive Heights (8/1), The Moore Factor (12/1) and Tilly’s Chilli (8/1) whose trainer has had 4 runners in this race with the most recent three finishing 1st-1st-3rd.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 13/07/17 12:41 AM Reply


  • Another 2nd yesterday for the Varian 1st time headgear stat to make it now: 2-1-2-2-1-1-2-2. He has three such runners today:

    2.45 Doncaster, King Of Paris, evens.
    3.00 Newmarket, Victory Angel,14/1.
    7.35 Newbury, Oden 14/1.

    Also another qualifier today for the Gosden stat from the other day:
    ALL Gosden runners in July/Aug/Sept having had their last run more than 45 days ago.
    2014: 36% strike rate / +45 points BFSP
    2015: 35% / +69
    2016: 31% / +33
    2017: 33% / -1. (3 from 9 so far this year)
    (Around 45 qualifiers each year)

    7.35 Newbury,Oja, 4/1.

    Hannon stat from yesterday has another one today too! First time cheekpieces/blinkers since 2014 he has a 20% strike rate, +76 BFSP. This year it is 26% strike rate, +19 BFSP.
    He has another one today : 2.45 Doncaster, Chatoyer,14/1.

    A new one for today is Charlie Appleby who also shows a decent strike rate and profit with 1st time headgear runners especially in class 4 and 5 races.
    2014: 31% , +15 BFSP
    2015: 36%, +17 BFSP
    2016: 38%, +7 BFSP
    2017: 36%, +3 BFSP

    Today:
    7.35 Newbury White Desert 10/3

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 13/07/17 10:53 AM Reply


    • Interesting stats Chris, especially re Mr Varian. Thanks for your efforts. lets hope we are rich when the results come in.

      martin colwell 13/07/17 12:39 PM Reply


      • You’re welcome, Martin. Glad it’s of use to you!
        A remarkable thing I came across when looking at Appleby runners is those in 1st time headgear, Class 3-5 races, last time out finished 2nd are 12/16,75%,+31 BFSP since 2015.

        Chris Baxendale 13/07/17 12:52 PM Reply


        • Top class work as usual Chris…. i love it. I find it a rich source of bets and stuff to think about.

          Cheers Chris.

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 13/07/17 1:05 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris,
      Thanks for the time and effort you put in….. Always enjoy what you find.

      GL today.

      jarrodholmes68 13/07/17 1:04 PM Reply


    • Chatoyer wasn’t that far away Chris… i took 16s….nice one.
      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 13/07/17 3:44 PM Reply


  • Shennanigans…I thought it was going to do it… Yes. Painful. But Chris’s winner and place helped to assuage the pain…lol.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 13/07/17 3:37 PM Reply


  • So sad to hear of the passing of Tommy Carberry in the Ould Country…I think from memory he rode L’Escago to beat Red Rum?….The his lad Paul done it with Bobby Jo ? prepped by Tommy. I met him in the pub next to Aintree and swapped a few jars…He knew my Great uncle Martyn who was a horse breeder. Some of the tales would have you on the floor laughing. I’ll be lifting a glass to him tonight.
    RIP Tommy Carberry….One of the best.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 13/07/17 4:07 PM Reply


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