Free Daily Post: SAT 08/07/17 (complete)

A special treat today…well, it may or may not turn out that way. Below is the full Members’ post. The ‘Elite Squad’ and the ‘test angles’ made +42.5 points yesterday, which was fun.

Do read through the below carefully, especially the key. The Members’ Club will be open again at some point with the 21 Day Free trial, with any luck in time for next week’s July meeting. The ‘big meeting notes’ have been another highlight of the flat season so far.

 

Members’ Club Intro… 

 

  • The purpose of the Club is to provide well researched trainer based selections that have a habit of finding decent priced winners. Section 1 of the post below lists qualifiers against my main stats packs, in this example Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2017. 
  • Backing them all is not advised. They are starting points. 
  • You can either take a systematic approach, starting with the 3 main strategies that are emerging. You can read those HERE>>>>   The Key/Codes next to the horses below will make more sense if you read that doc. The Members’ Club has been closed for a time mainly because up until recently I was struggling to find systematic approaches to the Flat quals. I don’t wish for you to have a crappy experience. 
  • The other approach is to use your own subjective judgement with the qualifiers and pick out what you like most. You have to get used to missing winners- I don’t back them all. But if I am making steady profits over time and having fun, I don’t really care. I think most members’ like this element of independence and making their own punting decisions – from picking which ones to back, how to back them, how much to have on etc. That’s where this club is different to most others ‘services’ out there. It isn’t for everyone, I know that. But anyone who reads this blog for any amount of time,and that includes me reading other’s comments, usually ends up thinking about the game slightly differently – or takes plenty away to help improve their own punting. That’s what it is about. There are numerous punters on here in their 60s,70s+ who I believe now approach the game in a completely different way, and I think enjoy it more than ever. That’s the main thing. Fun, steady profits, cheering home the odd nice priced winner. If you lack for patience you’re probably not reading this message as you’ll have stopped reading the blog a long time ago! Nothing comes easily or quickly in this game. And I have not found the magic bullet. But, we are doing ok. 
  • So, below is the daily content. It includes the system test zone also- mainly monthly trainer angles + my Jockey Course +Distance report. The former is 3/8,4p +24 points in July so far, the latter 3/8, + 10 or so I think. 
  • A highlight of the flat has been my ‘Big Meeting Notes’ – an example from The Curragh is HERE>>>  Again the aim there is to provide decent information that is unique and will help give us an edge. These have had success at York Dante (esp O’Meara angle, 3x 25/1+ winners, one 54/1 BFSP), Chester, Royal Ascot,and the Curragh Irish Derby weekend. That was a mad Saturday last week. 10/1,10/1,8/1 winners from 5 bets or so, something like that. How you approach such info is up to you. We have the July Meeting, Glorious Goodwood, Galway and various others to keep us all interested. Some Members’ just like focusing on those big meetings I suspect, dipping into daily content every now and then. 

 

Right, I think that is enough waffle. The 21 Day trial is there for a reason- mainly to ease your way in and get to grips with the content and an approach that may suit you. We are all learning together and improving as punters I think. And the stats, in their various forms, find plenty of decent priced winners. Remember, slow and steady wins the race… there is no rush…

 

**

MEMBERS’ POST: SAT 08/07/17 

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

 

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Sandown

None.

 

Leicester

2.30 – Squiggley (3yo+) 11/2 UP

 

Beverley

2.50 – Rossall (2YO) 3/1 UP

3.25 –

Signore Piccolo (3yo+) I3 9/1 2nd 8/1 (agonising) 

Excessible (micro dist) I1 13/2 UP

4.00 Bev – Mr Cool Cash (micro going)  H3 I3  

 

Haydock

3.15 – Tawdeea (micro TJC) G3 28/1 UP (ah,5th,maybe 6th,photo)

4.25 –

Full Intention (all hncps + micro TJC/runs) ES H3 G1  6/1

Sword Exceed (all hncps) 14,30 16/1

Summerghand (micro TJC) 4/1

5.00- Brogan (all hncps+micro runs) ES G1 I1  5/1

 

Nottingham

7.10 – Falak (4yo+) 9/4

5.40 Nott – Bahamian C (micro going) I3  12/1

 

Carlisle

None.  

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/40,17p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/59, +28.5) (total: 14/99, +26.6)

3.15 Haydock – Tawdeea – 1/2 point EW – 28/1 (gen,4 places) UP 5th/6th… typical!

My flat tipping threatens to find some form at some point – unexposed horses,some of whom are doing something different keep winning, and keep leaving them, for ‘tipping’ purposes at least. Still, it’s early days and the results may indicate I am happier when there are hurdles/fences to jump over!

Anyway, a bit on the fence with this one but he is 28/1 and for fear of him winning at those odds, i’ll have a go. He won the race last year, he is 2lb below his last winning mark, DT jumps back on board. A wide draw is fine around here and actually favoured over being drawn low over CD from what I can see in geegeez. The clincher though is the 1st time Visor- it may work, the trainer’s record with his 1st time suggests it may not- but he won in first time CP a few starts back and at least he is doing something… you get the idea. There is a niggle about GF ground but there are a couple of ok runs on it and that isn’t conclusive and in any case 28/1 shots will always have a chink or two. The visor needs to work based on that last run but Omeara’s can just bounce back into form from memory, a bit like Mark Johnston’s in that sense.

So, he is worth a dart for me at those odds. He could win, he could place, he could still be running this time tomorrow.

**

Of the rest… 3.25 Bev- I had a nibble on both of those. Horse’s keep coming out and compromising the price but they both may have a squeak. Easterby’s needs to bounce back but he drops in class here and is well drawn. 13/2 looked ok in that context,but that price has gone while i’ve been typing. There are 3/4 quick horses in here who like to get on with it and with any luck Allan tracks the pace and flies through when they fade. Reverting to more prominent tactics may see this one in a better light also. Signore- well he is just a sprinter in form who got no sort of the run last day but won before that. Slight niggle on the ground and he is wide drawn- but there are plenty of NRs now, and it isn’t impossible from the car park here. It is tough, but not impossible. 9s was interesting enough.

4.25 and 5pm Haydock are well covered by the Elite Squad and a couple of the ‘top rated’ strategies. ES runners especially have reached the stage of- ‘don’t over think them Josh, back the sodding things systematically’ – a couple of monsters have gone close in recent days and I would be lying if I said I had anything on. They are in the ‘test phase’ of course, early days for all strategies, but for use ‘bettors’ we know in reality that means betting smaller stakes rather than paper trading! We can’t help ourselves. Or is that just me. Summerghand in 4.25 is lightly raced, could be anything. He is worth a saver I think if you play in that race, or you may think he is ‘the’ bet of the race. I’ve backed two in that race, cue Furtado to sour my mood! (i’m going to have to have something in him now aren’t I,at that price. Jinxed it)

That’s my thoughts on today.

**

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

2.05 Hayd – Dominating 2nd 10/1

5.40 Nott- Gold Merlion

8.45 Nott- Scotts Piper

2.25 Sand – Rusumaat UP 12/1

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Friday evening turned out to be rather enjoyable. I was in the pub with a friend (7 pints having not eaten much has left me a tad groggy this morning) – and enjoyed keeping tabs on the various winners. I hope you backed one or more of them… Dascombe’s 10/1 winner drifted like mad and goes to show the market is often clueless. He was making handicap debut and stepping up in trip. I thought 6s was a tad on the skinny side given no’ runners, the break and just how poor the last run was. But, he was 6/1 which is my cut off generally for tipping, and was doing plenty different. Anyway, he hit a jockey CD angle.

The ‘Elite Squad’ on the flat were 2/3, +9.5 points on the day…

The ‘test’ angles were 3/4, +33.5 points. Nice. Hope you backed one or more, even for ‘test stakes’.

Mark Johnston came to the party with a 20/1 winner… (haven’t checked his BFSP…) one of you messaged me on Twitter having remembered my advice  ‘the bigger the odds the better’ with this angle. So it proved. Form is often irrelevant with that yard.  With 4/1 +9/2  winners already that should ensure he doesn’t lose on the month. With any luck a couple more biggies can hit the board. We shall see how those below get on. (Now 3/8,4p, +24 points I think)

It seems to have been a good week since last Saturday. I’ve lost count of the number of 6/1+, 8/1+, 12/1+ winners.. hope you’ve had as much fun as I have. I haven’t backed all the winners sadly,but that’s something you have to deal with here. I’m happy with the state of my betting bank. You can’t be greedy.

GL today.

**

**

Thanks again to Chris for some sterling trends work below. Found another decent winner at Sandown yesterday. As always all comments/thoughts/questions/polite disagreement … is welcome, it makes the blog what it is..

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Saturday 3.15 Haydock – Old Newton Cup

    20 years – 298 runners.

    Last run, class 1: 0/34,5p
    Last run, non-handicap: 1/46,7p
    Max.run >2m : 0/60
    Max. win 1m2f or less : 0/51

    10 years – 149 runners.

    Last run,not class 2-3: 0/29,5p
    Last run, not 1m2f / 1m4f / 2m: 0/35,6p
    Last run, group / listed race : 0/19,2p
    Last run, >45 days ago: 0/27
    Career runs, NOT 6-25: 1/34
    Class 2 or higher wins,1: 0/54,9p
    Handicap wins, 2: 0/40
    Places at 1m4f,1: 0/32,4p

    Don’t think any tick all the boxes but those that miss out by just 1 stat are: Soldier In Action (12/1) / Baydar (33/1) / Tawdeea (25/1) / Toulson (20/1) .
    Looking at the 10 years only stats then Soldier In Action (12/1) / Baydar (33/1) / Toulson (20/1) fit everything whereas 5-6-12-17 miss out by one.

    Might update overnight.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 07/07/17 5:11 PM Reply


    • I’ve already had Toulson tipped up from 2 different spots

      nickmazur 07/07/17 6:13 PM Reply


      • Nice to see it halve on price! That’s why I’ve tried to the big Saturday handicaps as soon as the decs are confirmed or Fri at the latest.
        What else are we cheering on for you today?

        Chris Baxendale 08/07/17 1:20 PM Reply


    • was tipped Soldier In Action yesterday lunchtime before Johnston / Kingscote made hay last night so sitting pretty at 12/1 of it obliges and also similar on Carntop. Agree Tawdeaa is cracking e/w punt if health issues resolved (p/u last time with breathing issue) GL all

      Colin 08/07/17 9:18 AM Reply


  • 1.20 Sandown 7f

    19 winners – 201 runners
    LR, 1m: 1/50
    Last 3 runs, no top 3: 0/30
    25 days: 0/29
    1 handicap place, 1/27
    LW, <7f: 1/24

    Firefright (8/1) and Zefferino (9/1) fare best – missing out by only one trend.
    Also, a worthy mention to Sultan Baybars (16/1) in the 1st time blinkers, who passes all the 10 year trends. I think the last six Roger Varian 1st time headgear runners are 2-1-2-2-1-1.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 08/07/17 12:17 AM Reply


  • 2.25 Sandown 1m

    151 runners over last 10 years:

    Last run, NOT class 2: 0/45,3p
    Last run, NOT 1m-1m1f: 1/41,4p
    Runs since win, 2-3: 0/50,7p
    Last win, class 3 : 1/44
    Last win, 30-240 days ago: 0/57,7p
    Places at 1m, >3: 1/62

    The only one to fit all the stats is El Hayem (8/1).
    Quite a few miss out only by having too many previous places at 1m which seems a strong enough stat to trust – the 1 of 62 only coming last year.
    The only other one to miss out by just the one stat is Manson (16/1).

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 08/07/17 12:57 AM Reply


    • The amount of work and study is greatly appreciated Chris….. Top class stuff.

      Tony Mc…..BOL.

      tonymc 08/07/17 12:13 PM Reply


    • Wallop. Another one goes in for you, and a nice drift! Lovely stuff. MJ one didn’t do much but who cares now! Cheers.

      Josh 08/07/17 2:29 PM Reply


  • ITV 7.
    Sandown.
    1-50. Muthmir is the class horse of the race ,dropped in class so should be able to defy top weight 11-2.
    2-25. Rusumaat 9-1 could bounce back from his poor run at Ascot lto and the inconsistent Glory Awaits might be worth a small ew if on a good day.
    3-00. Tisbutadream 13-2 let me down lto at Ascot but is worth another go, Pavillon 8-1 makes her turf debut after winning 2/3 on the AW and the booking of a top international jockey may be significant.
    3-35. Coral Eclipse the big race of the day see’s Barney Roy 3-1 2nd in the 2000 guineas but won his other 2 starts take on Cliffs Of Moher 2-1 2nd in the Derby but over the shorter distance i’m going to side with Barney Roy, even though these 2 should fight it out another that caught my eye was Salouen 50-1 won 2 class 1’s as a juvenile and has been very unlucky in running last 2 starts (including Derby) and is better than that form suggests worth an ew punt at the price.
    Haydock.
    2-05. very open race not one to have a big bet on, Mister Manduro 11-2 and Cribbs Causeway 7-1 interest me and i’ll dutch these to small stakes.
    2-40. Ajmam Princess 9-2 is back on good ground and could still improve from last start.
    3-15. another open race and i’m going to back 3 ew picks Tawdeea last years winner 25-1, Fabricate 20-1 and Toulson 16-1 , Skybet are paying 5 places in this.
    good luck to all if your having a punt.

    martin whittle 08/07/17 7:28 AM Reply


  • Busy at the moment so no time for full write up but today I like Rusumaat Sandown 14:25 (July trainer, front runner at Sandown a bonus and Johnston horses so tough to pass, gets a nice low weight as a 3 yr old), Sword Exceed Haydock 16:25 (form of last race working out well, front runner a plus as is draw, trainer/jockey combo, trainer form, big price), Twin Appeal Leicester 15:05 (has been going close in class 2s and drops in class, conditions not ideal for a large part of the field and looked one to beat) and Migyaas Nottingham 20:15 (trainer and jockey both in form and they have a very good record together, trainer has a very good record at the track over the past 12 months, headgear change, had placed in all 3 maidens before his last run which was too bad to be true)

    nickmazur 08/07/17 10:08 AM Reply


  • GREAT LINEUP BUT I HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO BACK ANY HORSES IN ENGLAND NOT FEAMLIER WITH THE HORSES LOVE TETTING A FEW TIPS AND I NEED ONES THAT ARE WORTHWHILE… THANKS MARIA 8/7/17

    MARIA 08/07/17 5:24 PM Reply


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