Free Daily Post: 06/07/17 (complete)

 

Not much today but I have resurrected a micro/test from last summer that didn’t go too well. It may have been a blip, it may not. Only one way to find out…

 

Richard Fahey – Nursery Handicaps

Last year I did some digging on Fahey’s record in nurseries and came up with the following…

  • Nursery Handicaps (2Yo handicaps)
  • Not clear bottom weight
  • 3+ runs in the last 90 days 
  • Did not run in a ‘non handicap’ LTO (as defined by HRB,does not include Maidens, sellers etc) 
  • Any odds

 

 

Last year was a bit of a blip but not on the place% front. A slight dip but enough there to give us hope I think. 

You could improve the overall stats by focusing on those that ran in the last 30 days. Those that ran 31+ days ago… 4/32,9p, -15, AE 0.88. Clearly there is a ‘fitness logic’ to said rule and something to keep an eye on. 

It could be he just had a bad crop of 2 year olds last year. It could be it marked a change in approach and a sign of things to come. But, it is worth keeping an eye on this season I think given the record the previous three years.  I will track this on the free posts and see how they go…

 

Qualifiers…

3.00 Haydock – Showbrom

 

**

That is all for today. GL with any bets.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • as mentioned a couple of weeks back i have been keeping an eye on Gary Priestley’s Free Horse Racing Tips yesterday he weighed in with a 40>28-1 winner Native Optimist 4-10 Perth , his NAP today is – ASHPAM SAM Time & Track – 7.15 EPSOM Best Odds – 16/1 but i like one of his others Todays Racing Tip – FORMIDABLE OPPONENT Time & Track – 3.10 PERTH Best Odds – 33/1.
    Analysis – He’s a 9 times career winner inc 1 NH flat race 1 hurdle 6 chases and 1 PTP. His 5 timer last Autumn started on 79 and ended on 99 all over very similar trips as today although he is still a few lba above that last winning mark. Last time at Cartmel it all happened a bit too quick for him so this track where he has won will suit him much better.
    I had a couple of quid on Native Optimist so will reinvest today on these 2, his strike rate is low but when they hit they are normally at a very good price.

    martin whittle 06/07/17 8:35 AM Reply


    • yep, he knows how to pick a big one out, best around for that. Long term SR around 10% which given his average odds is more than enough, he only cares for ROI/Profit. And with over +1400 points now I think since he started tweeting a few years back (4-6 years,forget) I think he can handle the odd dip. You just have to be prepared for the roller-coaster. And I think you generally back them all or don’t bother – or in that situation you have to be prepared to miss a biggie and live with it.
      Worst losing month- -75 points in Jan this year, a couple of -60s, -35s. , best month +166.
      results here.. http://www.tipstersreview.co.uk/gary-priestley-horse-racing-tips-results

      That volatility isn’t for everyone, but his thoughts always worth a read, and you can use them as starting points etc.

      https://twitter.com/gary_priestley

      Josh 06/07/17 8:54 AM Reply


    • Ashpan Sam won @8-1 so a another nice profit.

      martin whittle 06/07/17 8:39 PM Reply


      • Yep. He is in one of his renowned purple patches. +77 points up for July so far I believe. In form alright.

        Josh 06/07/17 10:39 PM Reply


  • Back after a couple of days off and am going to Newbury today. Also excited about the first Nursery, interesting to see that Josh has put up a system around Shobrom for Fahey. I saw him make his debut at Newmarket and he looked very fit then but very small.
    I will post all my comments on those in the nursery I have seen and given a rating to a bit later.

    6th July Newbury 6f Fillies Novice
    4.25 Mystique, Paint, Puchita, Sarshampla
    3.75 Early Dawn, Little Miss Lilly, Ritha, Sixties Secret, Wear It Well
    3.5
    3.25 Musical Art
    3 Cwynar, Golden footsteps
    2.75 Chillala, counterfeit, Your Choice
    2.5 Hollywood Dream
    2.25
    2
    Preview – Lovely conundrum with 3 Hannons, two Hills and a handful of other promising combinations.

    : 6th July Newbury 6f Novice
    4.25 Bhodi, Ocean Side
    3.75 Alkhalifa, Major Peirson, Warsaan
    3.5
    3.25 Bobby’s Charm, Frostbite, Oliver Reed
    3
    2.75 Salsa Verde
    2.5
    2.25
    2
    Hugh

    alpha2 06/07/17 12:08 PM Reply


  • Here is my look at the nursery. Shobrom looks to have a lot on his plate, particularly given his small stature. Looks a potential Hannon benefit and I like Magnus best of the Dascombe runners although Our Man In Havana is favourite. Also one really strange result from my ratings v OR which is Angel Force. Neither trainer or jockey give much encouragement and Lethal Force the sire has not been pulling up trees either. Even so I would expect her to outrun her odds. She ran in the same race as June Dog and Jellmood back on 29th April. Most of those in fornt of her have subsequently run well or won and she appears absurdly well in here. Then again it was a cold April night and maybe my radar was faulty.

    Date & Title: 8th June Haydock 6f Nursery

    Not the usual algo scores, just the comments and ratings for the runners I have seen compared with the ratings they have been given. How I treat these is to add or subtract the OR from my rating to see if I think they are well in or not. All runs I have seen listed below. I am ignoring June Dogs Windsor Castle as it appears to be an outlier. June Dog’s official rating 78

    This was all looking fine until Angel Force. Leaving that one aside the top 4 would appear to be Bodybuilder, New Empire, Magnus and June Dog in that order.

    Angel Force is a real odd one. Clearly has a bit of physical size and has shown real early speed in her last two races. She ran well on debut when I saw her (missed break and only btn 7l by Kodiline, Jellmood only 4l in front of her) and then for both her next two races went off at a crazy speed before fading badly, the last time in a class 2, all over 5f. Does not yet appear to have been shown the whip. Today she steps up to 6f with only 8stone. Trainer David Griffiths does not have a good record with 2yos and is 0 from 5 on h’cap debuts although he has had 50% of his 2yo wins in nurseries.

    Fun Bets Dutch Bodybuilder and June Dog and a muggy fiver e/w on Angel Force.

    Preview –
    Horse OR My rating Difference (biggest minus best)
    June Dog 78 78 –
    Alaska 74 65 +9
    Shobrom 73 67 +6
    Magnus 73 73 –
    New Empire 72 73 -1
    Jim Rockford 70 65 +5
    Our Man In Havana 69 64 +5
    Bodybuilder 68 71 -3
    Shovel It On 63 60 +3
    Angel Force 57 74 -17
    Prior race notes

    June Dog – Medium sized, well made colt, calm in prelims but did not look confident, a bit of a baby. All the right things in all the right places but like others here no more than 85% tuned. Generally Hannon’s debutants who are going on to do well finish closer than this. He was running a bit green for the first 3 furlongs but as he began to run on in he was first slowed by Darkanna as she weakened and forced to switch left where he ran straight into a closing gap between the rapidly weakening Shay C and Levante Player. At this point Sean Levey called time and let him come home in his own time. Had he had a smooth run I think he may have finished fairly close to Dontgiveuponbob around 5th. 78+

    June Dog – delighted to see my impressions from Doncaster confirmed here. Sean Levey said after that he may have only just coped with the ground. Possibly a better performance to come on fast ground. Ready looking, neatly made, barely medium. Looked relaxed on his 2nd trip to a course, completely different to debut. Jumped out and controlled the race. Never headed. Although it looked close at the end, JD wandered a bit and if not for that always had the race under control 78

    June Dog – Royal Ascot Still like him after I’d seen him here. Looks good enough to win races again but drifted to an exaggerated extent. Mystery, ground too firm? 73

    Alaska – Ordinary type, small chunky. 65
    Shobrom – Shobrom – Tiny, muscle packed and very fit but simply not able to keep up when the others stretched. Staying on again late on and should be winning on a Northern track soon. Hamilton? 67
    Magnus – Smallish, sloping croup, thought he was a bit better than this suggests. 73

    New Empire – Small, fat sprinty looking. Ran on ok. 73
    Jim Rockford – Top end of small but a different bulkier model than Gold Town. Looked to be a good walker. Spent the first 2.5f fighting for his head yet still finished off with enthusiasm. 79
    Jim Rockford – Top end of small, all a bit rounded at the back, just looks slow and nurseries for him now. 65

    Our Man In Havana – Chunky strong compact chap, carrying a bit of fat so not quite ready to give of his best. Slowly away from the widest draw and got behind, made up some ground but then ran out of puff late on. Improve and could find an early season race. 64

    Bodybuilder – A lot of front and middle but tailing off a bit. Like most of Hannon’s this year looking far from highly tuned. Ok for an ordinary maiden I should think with usual development. 71

    Shovel It On – Probably flattered by his finishing position as he stayed on as others faded. One of Dave Evan’s electric mice. Easy to see him whizzing around an aw track 2to. Not tiny like Airshow

    Hugh

    alpha2 06/07/17 1:10 PM Reply


  • Josh, are you able to sort out the spacing on the post above at all? Can’t believe that I have seen all these bar 4.
    Hugh

    alpha2 06/07/17 1:12 PM Reply


    • Thanks Josh,, feel a bit exposed by all this detail!!
      #dontworryaboutlookingafool

      alpha2 06/07/17 2:38 PM Reply


      • haha. If I worried about such things there wouldn’t be a blog! The key is to not look a fool too often!!

        Josh 06/07/17 2:42 PM Reply


  • 7.15 Epsom 6f

    117 runners – 15 years

    6f runs,<5: 0/17
    Handicap places,<3: 0/21

    60 runners – 8 years

    Last run, class 3, 0/15
    Last place, 3-10 runs ago: 0/29
    Wins, 1-3: 1/28
    6f places, <4: 0/20
    Handicap places, <6: 1/28

    Not many runners to form the stats but I think Highland Acclaim (7/2) and Taajub (22/1) the only ones that fit the above.
    Plenty of negatives for Taajub hence the price but a few positives: all 3 turf wins on good ground, 2 of them in July, 3 places from 7 runs at Epsom, 6 of 7 wins in fields of 11 or fewer runners.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 06/07/17 2:40 PM Reply


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