Members Daily Post: 05/07/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Thirsk 

None.

Bath

6.30 –

Handytalk (all hncps+micro age) ES  H3 I3 G3 13/2 WON 13/2>4/1

Silverrica (3yo+, + micro runs) 14,30  ES G3  8/1 UP

8.30 – Sublime (all hncps+micro distance+age) ES 8/1 2nd 11/2 

9.00- Holyroman Princess (all hncps+micro age) ES G3  25/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS

Perth 

3.10- Green Zone (all hncps+hncp hurdle, +micro dist) I1 13/2 WON 7/1>6/1

3.40 –

Pantxoa (all hncps) ES 4/1 UP

Always On The Run (hncp chase) 14,30  H1 I3 5/2 2nd

Kilbree Kid (hncp chase) I1  6/1 WON 11/2

4.10 –

Solway Dandy (all hncps+hncp hurdle) I3 13/2 2nd 9/1

Tangolan (all hncps) ES I3 5/1 UP 5/2

Presented (all hncps+hncp hurdle) I1 14/1 UP

 

Worcester 

2.50 – Dawnriver (hncp chase) 11/1

3.20 – Nicely Done (NHF) 11/2 UP

3.50 –

Harley Rebel (hncp hurdle + micro 90 days) 12/1 UP

Pinkie Brown (hncp hurdle) 7/1 UP

4.50 –

Peter Brown (hncp hurdle) ES  H3 I3   13/2 UP

Bermeo (hncp hurdle) 8/1 UP

5.20 –

Poetic Lady (hncp hurdle) 2/1 2nd

Chantecler (hncp hurdle) 12/1 UP

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 5/37,16p, +1.1) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 13/92, +25.6)

Flat…

6.30 Bath – Silverrica – 1 point win – 8/1, 17/2 (gen) UP

8.30 Bath – Sublime – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/PP) 2nd 11/2

Jumps…

3.10 Perth – Green Zone – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/Betf) , 13/2 (gen)  WON 7/1>6/1

4.50 Worc – Bermeo – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP

 

A mix today with a couple of more lightly raced ones and a couple of been there and done it types…

Silverrica– UP around 8/1 seems a decent price for a poke to me. She shows up well in the geegeez instant expert tab as having winning form in all conditions- on Firm,class,course,distance and is back on a winning mark. You have to forgive her last couple of runs but the hope is that the return to this CD sparks her back into life. Most of the others in here have something to prove whether it be class or distance and most haven’t raced on this unique unwatered ‘firm’ surface. Some of them may relish it, others will not. It is a unique track also. She has a top 2 speed figure along with a gap to the rest and the trainer is in decent form- 3/9,5 places last 14 days, 6/23,12p last 30. He also won this race last year. This one is more of a c5 animal but has won at C4 and this is the preferred CD. She should run better than an 8/1 shot for me and that seems a bit big. Ticks plenty of boxes for a ‘been there and done it’ type. She could just be out of form now but the price lured me in.

A quick mention for HandytalkWON,made all… who will no doubt win. He is covered on the Elite Squad test at least as they all are at Bath this evening. There is some money around and I have had a smaller bet on him. He is lightly raced but hasn’t done much and isn’t doing a lot different. He did pull too hard the last day and has threatened to stay further. Maybe they will try and make all and burn them off. A change in tactics may illicit improvement and Kirby has been booked which caught the eye. You wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled out a performance from somewhere but on paper the questions are now mounting up.

Sublime- well we are playing at a lowly level here where more than usual ‘anything can happen’. This is a really poor race and won’t take much winning. This one is 0/3,1p on the turf which immediately gets me interested. More to come at some point, possibly. I just noted how his best run to date came over CD two starts ago and there is a chance he just hated Brighton LTO. Returned back to here this prominent racer may enjoy himself more. He should still be learning about the game as well and is entitled to improve through experience. Again, given how lightly raced he is and that CD run, 8s has tempted me in. It will be interesting if there is any money for him.

Over to the jumps..

Famous last words but I would hope one or both of these put up a bold show…

Green Zone – you can’t ignore the fact that he is 2/3,3 places over CD, including a win at C4 and he has run well at C3. He drops in class here. Aged 6 there could be more to come and he is well handicapped having won off 100. He had a busy latter half of the year in 2016 and those poorer runs at the back end could have been a case of going to the well too often. In any case he returned after his first proper break LTO where he didn’t do much. But that was over 2m. He has never really done much over that trip and will have needed the run. He isn’t quick enough for 2 miles. And i noted how he has won over CD on the back of a tailed off effort (beaten further than LTO) over 2m the race before. So, bouncing back from a seemingly poor run isn’t beyond him or the yard. And there are valid excuses. He has a pace to aim at here and just loves this CD. Maybe they are running him into form and he is sure to go close here in a race this summer. I’ll take a 7/1 stab it is today in what looks a poor race. Brooke has been booked and he knows him well, another positive.

Bermeo – He is 1/5 in handicap hurdles and again there should be more to come. His best run, where he hacked up, was over CD last year, only 3 starts ago. He then ran well over fences before having a holiday. He returned the last day after a substantial break and he didn’t do much but should come on for the run. The 45 days is one of those funny rest periods but it should ensure there is no ‘bounce’ and it could be they have put him into a proper training cycle to get him fit enough. The headgear is interesting also. That win came in first time blinkers and he wore them on his next start. They were left off LTO and return here. I would like to think they are coming back to a CD he clearly likes for a reason and that he will be ready to roll now. 8s seemed worth a stab given that profile. The trainer’s horses are going ok also, 1/10, 4 places last 14 days. Trainer and jockey have a decent record in handicap hurdles, and over 2m7f. Everything points towards a big effort, but we shall see!

If one of them went in that would be welcome, or maybe even two. I would take that now. GL if you follow me in.

 

As per comments below a few of us seem to be on Tangolan at 9s.. I can’t really tip him at 5s knowing he was that price. He is one of those where it all seems too good to be true- too much in his favour- but with any luck will go close.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

8.00 Bath- X Rated WON 5/1>9/2

9.00 Bath- Nothing Compares

9.10 Kemp- Tailors Row UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Worth a flick through…

TTP Flat: ‘Advised Strategy’ Update: READ HERE>>> *

  • Info on 3 main strategies being monitored plus a further two others. I will keep these updated on a weekly basis.
About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Well bet365 held the 14/1 on Tangolan for about 10 mins,back in line now at 9/1,maybe a few members got on board

    gearoid180468 04/07/17 5:44 PM Reply


    • Have taken the 9s for a wedge. Worth it at that price to take a stab that this has been a plan for a while- prep run LTO after break albeit would’ve liked to have seen a tad more. TJC test qual on free post, Elite Squad qual also on that little test, back to last winning hurdles mark, shows up well on Geegeez instant expert,and pace is interesting- only him and the McCain horse like to get on with it usually- so could lead/dictate or in any case be in the perfect spot. All in all, at 9s, worth a stab. All seems a bit too good to be true mind, but nice price. Last year’s race was weak, this doesn’t look much stronger. GL

      Josh 04/07/17 5:49 PM Reply


      • missed the boat now 4-1 sky, 5.7 BF ,might just use my £5 free bet on it.

        martin whittle 05/07/17 12:17 AM Reply


    • I am on Tangolan at 9/1. I heard about it from someone else and so the word seems to be about on Tuesday evening. Had a nice pick up on Hibou Tuesday. Off to Cyprus for a week now but will keep an eye out.

      martin colwell 04/07/17 9:23 PM Reply


      • Enjoy your Holiday. Well done with Hibou. Yep Jardine keeps having Hamilton winners outside of 4yo+ handicaps which is annoying for those of us not on/just using the TTP stats. Small numbers mind and his 3YO+ numbers were only ok, three trainers included much better. Suspect his stats will look better for next season though, after Desert Ace and now this one both at decent prices.

        Josh 04/07/17 9:32 PM Reply


  • Yep Josh,they seem rather bullish on the blog,might have a small cheeky patent on the 3 tomorrow.

    gearoid180468 04/07/17 6:06 PM Reply


  • Expensive ending there given Solway drifted to 12.85 on the machine and Tangolan got done for a place.

    nickmazur 05/07/17 4:23 PM Reply


    • yep painful on many a level there! Hopefully one of three remaining ‘tips’ can go in to make it a decent day nonetheless.

      Josh 05/07/17 4:25 PM Reply


      • Watch him win tomorrow now as well (Paddy/Fergal are 2/2 on horses re-appearing 24 hours later) although after that display of jumping I dont think I can even throw coach change at him over fences!

        nickmazur 05/07/17 10:19 PM Reply


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