Free Daily Post: 05/07/17 (complete)

TIPS

3.40 Perth-

No bets. I have spent long enough staring at this and I am struggling to make a case for anything at the prices. I don’t really fancy any of the young guns/front three in the market. But I don’t know what else to punt and it would be betting for the sake of it. I do wonder if Russian Regent and Bailys C will fight this out like they did last year. On ratings you would fancy the latter to turn it around – but he is 11 and 5s seems short enough for one who has to still prove he truly sees this trip out. He travelled well at Aintree before fading but that race has worked out well and he wasn’t beaten far. He may put up a bold show. Russian Regent is on a career high chase mark aged 13. I suspect this has been a target and he may not be far away. 9s is possibly tempting but his age is holding me back. A race I am happy to sit out. Looks tricky.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

4.10 Perth – Tangolan (12/1< guide) UP

 

**

Nothing else today. Fingers crossed Tangolan, 9s>9/2, can run a decent race. We shall see.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • One for me tomorrow where I think Clear Spring in the 15:30 at Thirsk is back to a nice mark. Certainly hasn’t been disgraced in 3 class 2 starts this season before missing the start LTO and losing all chance. As a result of this he is now 11lbs below his last winning mark and 16lb if you include the jockey’s claim. He drops down into a class 3 handicap for the first time in 2 years (2/6, 5p in class 3 handicaps worth £10k or less). The trainer has only booked the jockey once before resulting in a win for a similarly well treated 9 year old. He seems to target the track and has a solid 3/12, 7p +15.25 record with his flat handicappers at the track winning with his last trip to the track 4 years ago. He has been in decent form recently with a winner and 3 places from his last 6 runners but also his horses have all ran fairly well in the past 3 months.

    nickmazur 04/07/17 8:42 PM Reply


    • Good Luck with Clear Spring, interesting to add that the Tipping Service I use that we discussed last week is very keen on it today. They have a small share in a couple of horses with the yard and have tipped it a few times specifically when it won at 25/1 last year. They don’t claim any kind of inside knowledge but make the point that you have; spotted about the unusual trip up north; and also the fact that the handicap mark and class drop are huge positives, enough to say “I’m on”. They also discuss the draw at Thirsk and as a saver in case it switches violently as it can do, think Midgeley’s Giant Spark is best handicapped of those drawn low. G/L

      Colin 05/07/17 10:00 AM Reply


  • 5.50 Fairyhouse
    1 point e/w Seanie 10/1 with several firms(hills bet365 sky corals bet victor

    Seanie will go very close if his run at Naas 15 days ago has brought him on fitness wise.
    well drawn in three for a horse who likes to be up with the pace, on old form he would have every chance
    on going he likes and over his perfect trip.

    In a tight little claimer most of his rivals have question marks over them
    Burn the boats is top rated but his best form is on fast turf or the a/w so even a slight bit of ease in the ground could be against him.
    Noble intention was 2nd last time out so has the recent form but he has been placed over 1m2f and the drop back to 7f may count against him as he has a very wide draw in stall 14, he will be finishing strongly but may find himself with to much to do unless they go a crazy gallop early on.

    Bubbly Bellini has every chance at the weights(only 3lbs behind Burn the Boats) but his record over 7f is 0-42 although he has been placed 13 times at 10 I don’t fancy him that much to buck the trend.

    Palavicini Run is drawn in stall 13 and I think this horse is better at shorter so may find it hard to get a decent early position and can’t see him coming from behind.

    Captain Cullen and Jammy Guest are not out of it but their recent form is moderate
    of the two Jammy has been put in the race off a low claiming price and would be my pick of the two.

    Vocal activity is an interesting runner for Jim Bolger who is entered straight into a claimer after 3 runs in maidens.

    He has been put in off a low claiming mark which highly suggest the horse isn’t very good
    and Bolger is looking to off load it.

    The only way Bolger would enter a 3 year old in this type of race off such a low rating
    is if an almighty gamble is planned and the 7/1 8/1 in places price doesn’t suggest that.

    Summary
    Tight race with plenty of chances, low draw has a slight edge over 7furlongs here and with front runner Vocal activity drawn in stall 1 he could give Seanie a good lead
    Pace will be important because if they are allowed to dominate off a slow gallop they will be hard to peg back
    but if they take each other on it will favour the stronger stayers

    peter walker 05/07/17 8:52 AM Reply


  • 8.10 Kempton

    11 years – 110 runners

    LR, NOT top 5: 1/48 (Fanshawe horse way back in 2006 who finished 18th on prev run!)
    LR, NOT 15-60 days: 0/38
    Last winning run at 1m5f or less: 1/30

    King Calypso fits the bill at 10/3.

    May finish off the 3.50 Worcester race in time to post on here.

    Chris Baxendale 05/07/17 11:10 AM Reply


    • Would Josh and the members of racing to profit be interested in ownership.
      I have many years experience of running racing Syndicates and had several horses with John
      Wainwright.
      Oniz Tiptoes, Blue Noodles and Acquaint were three of my syndicate horses.
      Oniz Tiptoes won 9 races for us and ownership can be great fun and give you an insight into
      The racing world.

      For Josh it is great advertising for the site and the members get a real buzz from owing a horse.
      When I set up the Oniz Tiptoes syndiacte I arranged a stable visit for 25 interested people
      And then went on to Towcester for a day at the races, from those 25 20 signed up
      And we then bought Tippy off Willie Muir for £8000 so each player stumped up £400
      To purchase the horse and then paid £75 a month for training fees.

      I have learnt from experience that a two year deal is best as people can drop out along the way
      And it can leave a syndicate vulnerable, after two years the horse is sold and any profit from the sale and any prize money won is redistributed to the members.
      I am a registered owner so all the colours and registration will not incur extra costs
      But I can also arrange for a separate syndicate to be started with Josh as the main man
      Fantastic choosing your horse, you can either pick a horse out of a claimer or seller
      Try for a private purchase out of a sale of if you have an expert like Hugh on board
      Go for a two year old out of a breeze up
      If Josh and enough members are interested I can organise it.
      Pete

      Peter Walker 05/07/17 11:57 AM Reply


  • 3.50 Worcester 2m4f handicap hurdle

    162 runners over 20 years – 18 winners (no race in 2007 and 2009)

    Last run, NOT top 10 : 1/36
    Last run, NOT Class 3 or 4: 1/30
    Last run, NOT over hurdles: 1/22
    Best in 3 ,NOT top 4: 1/34

    Think that leaves us with Pinkie Brown / Doubly Clever / Brotherly Company.

    Preference for Pinkie Brown at 10/1.
    First time run under new trainer whose record with debutantes in 2m3f+ handicap hurdles in class 4 races
    reads 1-4-1-2-F since Jan 2016. Winners at 12/1 and 16/1 and 2nd at 20/1.

    🙂

    Chris Baxendale 05/07/17 12:03 PM Reply


    • Typical Chris.. i went for the wrong one……Good work though Chris. Had it been 2, i would have split my stake.
      Keep up the good work mate.
      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 05/07/17 4:50 PM Reply


    • Harry Fry’s horses don’t look worth following at all in the summer IMO.

      Chris Albin 05/07/17 5:44 PM Reply


  • Alex Bedene took 66 games to beat Karlovic in round 1 and while
    it was serve dominated the match was still a long hard match.
    his opponent today won in very quick time and will be very fresh
    with only twenty odd places between them in the ranking and the young Bosnian improving all the time
    9/4 seems a big price about Dzumhur

    peter walker 05/07/17 1:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I think you are spot on about the doubts for everything at the top of the market in the 15:40 so I really cant resist having £5 e/w on Mias Anthem given the price it has drifted to particularly given he is 1/1 with this headgear combo amongst other things.

    nickmazur 05/07/17 2:04 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, yep the three I kept looking at were Bailys C, Russian R and Mias Anthem- I couldn’t decide and wasn’t enthusiastic enough to tip a 1 point etc. I noted the headgear… it needs to work- when first applied he won, but then when it was removed he won a further couple of times and I thought he just looks out of form- and will be held up is adopting usual tactics, which I never like in general and certainly not around here- I am just justifying it to myself haha- but it has a strange feel and wouldn’t be shocked were one of the biggies to pop up….

      Albeit having just staid that…Mias formline on the third start off an extended break reads… 1,2,1 Now on his third start after extended break. Not sure my couch has any more change hiding down the side but i will go and look… GL

      Josh 05/07/17 2:48 PM Reply


    • worth stabs I think but Mias just out of form… KKs age put me off I think, in context of being 6s, but did tick plenty of boxes and the form ‘story’ as I call it (3 run after a break, back RH,CD he loves,mark fine with claim,trainer in form) made sense. All easy to say when they win like that mind. Think I have only ever got him right once over fences. one of those.

      Josh 05/07/17 3:59 PM Reply


  • Hey Josh, not surprised you’ve stayed away from the 3:40 at Perth! Its a tricky affair indeed. Trouble is its thrown up 6 qualifiers on my HRB systems with Pantxoa 3 times with Always On The Run, Jovial Joey and Kilbree Kid.

    I’m ditching Pantxoa on the grounds that he prefers going the other way round, looks destined for Hunter Chases these days and IMO isn’t as good as he was 2-3 yrs ago. I’ve plumped for JJ &KK because of the double initials. Not really, they have good course form, distance going blah blah and offer some good value against a favourite that to my mind will struggle to grab a place because he’ll see his mate Paddy riding something else and become dejected and throw in the towel!
    Interesting race.

    Chris Albin 05/07/17 3:42 PM Reply


    • Well done Chris, pin landed on the right one. Fav was worth taking on due to stamina and as you say, no Paddy! He has enough speed, but seems like a horse without a trip at the moment.
      KK has done that well- prominent racer, 3/4,4p in chases at track, 3rd run after a break, hates going LH – so enough excuses for last two runs (as well as needing them/not staying), trainer in form… the stars aligned as I thought about that in more depth post race- as they always do when they win haha. 5/6 / 1, aged 10+ just makes me nervous albeit I go through periods when I love backing an older horse! I ended up with £5 spread over couple of bigger priced ones for an interest – no discipline with 3m+ chases!
      Green Zone has ensured my day will be decent whatever happens as per members’ post but with any luck I can find another. Will be cheering if Tangolan goes in.

      Josh 05/07/17 3:57 PM Reply


      • Rest assured you are the shrewdy when it comes to long distance chases and a man to follow. I have my lucky moments but always consider your views in these cases but can’t ignore my HRB though as it serves me so well, so you made my life easier by sidestepping this one! I need to do more analysis with multiple selections though as I always feel just lucky rather than skilled in these instances.

        I’m not so sure about Tangolan after seeing Pantxoa bow out tamely but fingers crossed for you.

        Chris Albin 05/07/17 4:27 PM Reply


        • Always skill involved somewhere in picking out a decent priced winner. I have the attitude that I should be finding the winner of every 3m+ handicap chases, C4+, that is 6/1+ ! – clearly impossible but i think the strive for perfection helps in what is a bloody tough game most of the time.

          Tangolan- 9s was fine, 5/2 was short- that last run did nag at me- even for a prep run it was just a bit too poor. He put in some shoddy jumps also. A few more darts to throw yet.

          Josh 05/07/17 4:32 PM Reply


          • Hi Josh…I think Tangolan lost it with his jumping…even when a place was there for the taking…he just stopped dead. Not really sure of where to place him in my thoughts…other than dodgy.

            tonymc 05/07/17 4:54 PM Reply


            • Yea seems to have been pulled up sharp in last 100 yards, not sure if he hurt himself but put in some awful jumps. May have hurt himself. Typical summer jumper, he won’t be in my thoughts for very long unless he quals on an angle somewhere. Hopefully he is ok.

              Josh 05/07/17 5:02 PM Reply


  • On the face of it Fergal OBriens horses just look like they’re not running well to me for whatever reason. All seemed to have under performed today and looked to struggle at some point.

    Chris Albin 05/07/17 5:41 PM Reply


    • yep maybe, didn’t see his chasers earlier on in card that was short price but the 3m chaser, and Tangolan- they were both arriving on the back of shocking runs and while possible excuses did have questions to answer. Maybe they are just a bit under the weather at the moment for whatever reason.

      Josh 05/07/17 5:46 PM Reply


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